Strategic Education (STRA) 2026年第三季度财报电话会议：澳大利亚业务拖累2027年展望

核心要点

• 第三季度营收为3.2亿美元，同比基本持平。营业利润下降2%至5000万美元，营业利润率下降30个基点至15.7%。
• 得益于股票回购推动股份数减少，每股收益增长4%至1.69美元。前九个月自由现金流增长8%至1.37亿美元。
• 教育技术服务（ETS）仍是表现最强劲的业务板块，营收增长12%至4300万美元，营业利润增长14%至1800万美元。Sophia Learning营收增长20%。
• 美国高等教育业务入学人数下降1%，但医疗保健类专业入学人数增长9%，达到该板块总入学人数的54%。学生留存率创下89.2%的历史新高。
• 因留学生签证规则收紧抑制需求，澳大利亚业务入学人数下降9%，营收下降7%。公司计提了1.34亿美元的澳大利亚商誉及无形资产非现金减值。
• 管理层预计2027年合并营收将与2026年持平，并计划进行约5000万美元的增长性投资，主要投向ETS、美国医疗保健类专业及澳大利亚本土市场。

核心财务数据

除非另有说明，管理层讨论的调整后业绩均基于固定汇率计算，且剔除了1.34亿美元的澳大利亚减值费用。

业务与运营表现

教育技术服务

Sophia Learning营收增长20%至2100万美元，平均总订阅用户数增长22%。管理层表示，若剔除一家大型企业客户的周年基数效应，直接面向消费者（DTC）的订阅用户增速仍接近20%。

Workforce Edge截至季度末拥有83份企业合作协议，覆盖约400万名员工。通过Workforce Edge入读Strayer或Capella大学的学生人数增长4%至约4000人。

公司计划在2027年加速推进ETS产品路线图。管理层预计相关支出将支持其五年计划下的更高营收增长，捍卫Sophia的市场地位，并加强Workforce Edge对企业客户的拓展。

美国高等教育

生均收入增加抵消了入学人数1%的下滑，使该板块营收基本持平。包括持续的增长性投资在内，营业费用增幅低于1%。

医疗保健类专业仍是主要增长引擎。该专业入学人数增长9%，占美国高等教育总入学人数的54%，高于上年同期的49%。医疗保健类专业约38%的入学人数来自雇主合作伙伴。

雇主合作渠道学生占美国高等教育总入学人数的35%，提升了200个基点。与此同时，学生留存率创下89.2%的历史新高。

Capella大学的预执照护理学学士项目以及Strayer大学的放射技术应用科学副学士项目早期需求超出了管理层的最初预期。公司还重点提及了Strayer大学的执业护士（LPN）文凭以及Capella大学扩充的高级实践注册护士（NP）专业组合。

澳大利亚

管理层将入学人数的下滑完全归因于国际学生。新签证获批速度急剧放缓，部分月份同比降幅高达80%。此外，针对留学生转学的新签证要求实际上关闭了境内转学市场。

本土需求更具韧性。澳大利亚本土新生入学人数在第二和第三季度均增长9%，占澳大利亚新生总数的近70%。

Strategic Education计划扩建阿德莱德校区，增设健康科学专业，并于2027年底开设珀斯校区。管理层表示，其在澳大利亚的增长资本支出专注于本土市场，而非依赖国际限制政策的放宽。

管理层指引

管理层表示，由于下半年澳大利亚的留学生招生环境恶化，2026年全年业绩不太可能达到公司的名义预期。

对于2027年，管理层提出了以下预期：

• 合并营收最有可能与2026年持平。
• ETS预计将实现增长，而美国高等教育板块在医疗保健专业强劲表现的带动下可能录得较低增长。
• 澳大利亚持续的限制措施预计将抵消其他业务的增长。
• 增长性投资预计总计约5000万美元。
• 2026年实现的生产力成本节约预计将抵消该支出近一半，从而将营业费用增幅限制在2%。
• ETS板块利润率可能下降约300至400个基点，对美国高等教育和澳大利亚板块利润率的影响预计相对较小。
• 澳大利亚新生人数增长可能在2027年下半年转正，总入学人数增长可能在2028年初紧随其后。

管理层表示有信心通过这些投资使公司在2028年及以后重回名义增长轨道。这一前景取决于ETS、美国医疗保健专业以及澳大利亚本土入学人数的持续强劲表现。

风险与关注要点

• 澳大利亚留学生入学仍受制于签证审批变慢及转学要求收紧。
• 澳大利亚限制措施放宽的时间和程度仍具不确定性，管理层并未将本土增长策略建立在此类预期之上。
• 在预期的增长红利显现之前，2027年的投资计划预计将拉低业务板块利润率。
• 美国非企业合作渠道的本科生入学人数依然承压，但管理层预计降幅将在2027年有所收窄，并有望在年底实现持平或转为正增长。
• 管理层正密切关注涉及大语言模型及答案引擎优化（AEO）的学生搜索行为变化，但表示迄今尚未发现实质性不利影响。

分析师问答亮点

管理层预计2027年美国高等教育板块新生净入学人数将实现正增长。在医疗保健和执照前项目的支撑下，管理层还预计该板块增速将在年内逐步迈向中个位数。

针对澳大利亚业务，管理层表示公司可能更接近留学生招生常态化环境，但目前的投资策略基于本土业务增长，而非监管政策放宽。

关于Sophia Learning订阅用户增速放缓的问题，管理层认为这一变化几乎完全是由于上年同期新增了一家大型企业客户导致基数较高。若剔除该客户，面向消费者的直接订阅用户增速仍接近20%。

管理层还表示，尽管潜在学生搜索高校的方式持续变化，但录取转化率以及获客成本相对于终身价值的比率均接近历史高点。

业绩电话会完整纪要

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Welcome to Strategic Education's Third Quarter 2026 Results Conference Call. I will now turn the call over to Terese Wilke, Senior Director of Investor Relations for Strategic Education. Mrs. Wilke, please go ahead.

Terese Wilke

Thank you. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Strategic Education's conference call in which we will discuss third quarter 2026 results. With us today are Karl McDonnell, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Daniel Jackson, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following today's remarks, we will open the call for questions.

Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. The statements are based on current expectations and are subject to a number of assumptions, uncertainties and risks that Strategic Education has identified in today's press release that could cause actual results to differ materially.

Further information about these and other relevant uncertainties may be found in Strategic Education's most recent annual report on Form 10-K, the 10-Q to be filed and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission as well as Strategic Education's future 8-Ks, 10-Qs and 10-Ks. Copies of these filings and the full press release are available for viewing on our website at strategiceducation.com.

And now I'd like to turn the call over to Karl. Karl, please go ahead.

Karl McDonnell

Thank you, Terese, and good morning, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect continued strength in the parts of SEI where we have been investing for growth, Education Technology Service, our broad employer strategy and our U.S. health care portfolio. The strength in these areas, however, was mostly offset in the third quarter by our Australia segment, where the environment has proved more challenging than we expected.

This morning, I'll briefly review the quarter, and then I'll walk through each of our segments. As I do, I'll discuss the opportunities behind our intent to make 2027 a year of increased growth investments. As always, unless I note otherwise, my comments refer to adjusted results on a constant currency basis, and those results exclude the $134 million noncash impairment of goodwill and intangible assets in Australia that we recorded this quarter and which I will discuss with that segment.

Third quarter revenue was $320 million, essentially flat with the prior year. We did hold operating expense growth to less than 1%, resulting in operating income of $50 million, a 2% decrease, and an operating margin of 15.7%, 30 basis points below the prior year. Earnings per share increased 4% to $1.69, reflecting a lower share count from share repurchases. Through the first 9 months of this year, free cash flow increased 8% to $137 million.

Turning now to our segments. Education Technology Services continued its strong performance. Revenue grew 12% to $43 million. Operating income grew 14% to $18 million and operating margin expanded 80 basis points to 42.5%. Sophia Learning average total subscribers grew 22% and revenue grew 20% to $21 million. Workforce Edge ended the quarter with 83 corporate agreements covering approximately 4 million employees, and enrollments from Workforce Edge into Strayer or Capella grew 4% to roughly 4,000 students.

SEI was recently named to Business Insider's 2027 list of Most Innovative Companies, a recognition that reflects much of the work that is being done within ETS. Given the strong demand across ETS and given our desire to accelerate our product road map to serve that demand, our intent is to increase our growth investments in ETS in 2027. These investments will slightly reduce the ETS segment-level operating margin next year, but will also result in higher revenue growth in our current 5-year plan, defend Sophia's market leadership position and strengthen Workforce Edge's ability to sign new corporate clients.

Turning now to U.S. Higher Education. Total U.S. Higher Education enrollment declined 1% to approximately 84,700 students as growth in employer-affiliated enrollment was offset by lower unaffiliated enrollment. Revenue was essentially flat at $214 million as higher revenue per student offset the enrollment decline. Our productivity initiatives continue to hold operating expense growth to less than 1%, including continued investments in growth. Operating income was $22 million, a 4% decline, and an operating margin of approximately 10%. Student retention reached 89.2%, a new all-time high for U.S. Higher Education.

Our health care portfolio continues to be the strongest source of growth in U.S. Higher Education. Health care enrollment grew 9% in the quarter and now represents 54% of total U.S. Higher Education enrollment, up from 49% a year ago, an increase of 500 basis points over the last year. Health care is also central to our broad employer strategy. Roughly 38% of our health care enrollment comes from employer partners, and employer-affiliated enrollment overall reached 35% of U.S. Higher Education total enrollment, up 200 basis points from the prior year.

We are now extending that portfolio into licensure-track programs. Earlier this year, Capella enrolled the first cohort in its pre-licensure Bachelor of Science in Nursing program and Strayer enrolled its first students in the new Associate of Applied Science in Radiologic Technology. Early demand for both programs has exceeded our initial assumptions. These 2 programs join Strayer's Licensed Practical Nurse Diploma and Capella's expanded Nurse Practitioner portfolio, all aimed at the health care talent our employer partners increasingly need.

To support that demand, we intend to also increase our growth investments in U.S. health care in 2027 with funding for new programs, clinical faculty, expanded clinical and instructional capacity. This will allow programs like pre-licensure nursing and radiologic technology to grow at the pace their demand supports.

Turning to Australia. Total enrollment declined 9% to approximately 17,100 students and revenue declined 7% to $64 million. The Australian team continued to manage costs well with operating expenses down 4%, and operating income was $10 million compared with $12.5 million in the prior year and an operating margin of approximately 16%.

The decline is entirely a function of international enrollment. Over the course of this year, the Australian government restrictions on international students have become materially more severe than we anticipated. New visa approvals for prospective students have slowed sharply, and in some months, declining as much as 80% versus the prior year. And in addition, the government has effectively closed the onshore transfer market by requiring international students already in Australia to obtain a new visa in order to change institutions. Given this environment, we have lowered our near-term growth expectations for the ANZ segment, which resulted in this quarter's $134 million noncash impairment.

Notwithstanding the headwinds on international enrollment, our domestic enrollment continues to fare well. Domestic new enrollment has grown every quarter this year, including 9% in each of the second and third quarters, and domestic students now represent close to 70% of new enrollment in Australia.

The quality of Torrens' academic experience remains strong and has shown significant improvement over the past year. We were pleased to see Torrens University's performance in the 2025 Quality Indicators for Learning and Teaching Student Experience Survey, the most comprehensive national survey of current higher education students in Australia. Torrens achieved widespread momentum across all undergraduate indicators, including a rise to sixth nationally for undergraduate teaching quality, up significantly from 19th the year before. At the post-graduate level, Torrens continues to lead at the top tier of Australian higher education, ranking in the top 4 nationwide for both skills development and peer engagement alongside a seventh place ranking in post-graduate teaching quality.

This performance against national sector benchmarks reinforces Torrens' value proposition and supports student retention and long-term brand equity in industry-aligned education. The quality of Torrens' academic programs, combined with our own success in growing domestic enrollment gives us confidence to increase our growth investments in Australia's domestic market in 2027. We are expanding our existing Adelaide campus and will launch several new health science programs, and we also plan to open a new campus in Perth in late 2027.

Western Australia is the fastest-growing state in the country with population growth 50% higher than the national average. Greater Perth is projected to add more than 0.5 million residents over the next decade, and its economy is concentrated in the sectors where our new programs are focused, namely health care, engineering, construction and defense. Perth will also position Torrens well for international recruitment from Asia when those constraints ease.

Turning now to an update on our outlook versus our notional model. Given our current forecast for the balance of this year and the fact that the international enrollment environment in Australia deteriorated since the first half of the year, it appears unlikely our full year results will fall inside of our notional outlook. In terms of 2027, given that our forward revenue growth is mostly a product of current year enrollment, we think the most likely outcome for consolidated revenue next year is to be flat with this year.

We expect the cost of the growth investments that I have described this morning to be approximately $50 million in 2027. However, the productivity savings achieved this year will offset nearly half of that, such that year-over-year increase in operating expenses will be limited to just 2%. Given that these incremental investments are targeted to support areas of proven strength at SEI, that is our 2 high-growth, high-margin platform businesses, our U.S. health care portfolio and our domestic market growth in Australia, we have a high degree of confidence in their ability to return the company to its notional growth rates in 2028 and beyond.

Regarding capital allocation, in addition to our regular quarterly dividend, we repurchased approximately 347,000 shares during the quarter for a total of $28.5 million. We ended the quarter with $139 million of cash and marketable securities and no debt. And finally, as always, I'd like to take this opportunity to thank all of my colleagues here at SEI for their ongoing commitment and support to our students and our corporate partners.

And with that, Victor, we'd be happy to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question will come from the line of Jeff Silber from BMO Capital Markets.

分析师问答

Jeffrey Silber

Karl, I really appreciate you giving us some insight into 2027. I was hoping I could just double-click on that a little bit. Is it possible to talk about the different segments? Like, say, overall, you think revenue most likely flat, but could we see growth in ETS offset by declines in the other two? And then from a margin perspective, where do you think you'd have the most impact in terms of declining margins potentially next year?

Karl McDonnell

I think we're going to have -- we're absolutely going to have growth in ETS, Jeff. I suspect we'll have lower growth in U.S. Higher Education, driven by the strength of the health care portfolio that I just described. Overall, that will be offset by the continuation of the restrictions in Australia, although we do expect that with the addition of the Perth campus, the expanded programs in Adelaide, launching several asynchronous online programs throughout Australia, we do expect that new student growth in Australia will be growing year-over-year in the back half of '27.

And just given the headwinds that we've had, it's going to take a few quarters for that to translate into total enrollment growth. So I would expect that probably in the first part of '28. And from a margin standpoint, I would estimate that it could be in the range of 300 to 400 basis points at ETS and a little less than that in U.S. Higher Education and Australia.

Jeffrey Silber

Okay. That's really helpful. I really appreciate that. Moving back to, I guess, the U.S. We had an election earlier this week. I'm not asking you for your crystal ball, but given guys where you're located, you're probably closer to most in terms of what's going on and what potentially could go on. Any changes you're expecting with the changeover in Congress towards Democratic control?

Karl McDonnell

Well, I'd say that in the U.S., we have a high degree of confidence in sort of the regulatory and quality posture of both Strayer and Capella. We try to work constructively with any regulators or members of Congress or the administration regardless of party affiliation, and we look forward to engaging with them once the new Congress is inaugurated in January.

Operator

And our next question will come from the line of Alex Paris from Barrington Research.

Alexander Paris

I too appreciate the granular detail by segment and the look at 2027. I just had a question on unaffiliated enrollment. Obviously, it was down 4%. It's actually an improvement from the second quarter by my math, which -- when it was down 5.5%. But it's been down for 8 consecutive quarters now. And you've consistently said you do anticipate returning to mid-single digits at some point, but it's not an area of focus, I get it. I'm wondering, has there been an impact on the funnel from LLM, AI search and so on? And could that be a contributing factor?

Karl McDonnell

Alex, first of all, on unaffiliated enrollment, that's predominantly undergraduate business. It's an area that's important to us, but it's not one of our main strategic priorities in the way that health care is. You're right that the rate of decline moderated in the third quarter. We expect it to continue to moderate throughout 2027, perhaps even reaching breakeven or growth by the end of 2027.

And then in terms of LLM, it's certainly something that we're watching. But we have -- we've been focused on a quality of demand over quantity of demand for going on 2 years now. So we don't peg rate of increase or decrease in any inquiry volume that we're getting as being most important. We're looking at admission yield and sort of the acquisition cost to lifetime value. And both of those are near all-time highs. Obviously, we want to be relevant and favorably represented in any search medium that people are using, including LLMs. So we have a lot of people that are focused on it. But I can't say that we've really seen any adverse impact from it yet.

Alexander Paris

What are you specifically doing to respond to the changes in the way students look at colleges and universities?

Karl McDonnell

It's a multifunction, multidisciplinary set of initiatives that we have. I don't really want to go into details on this call, but we do have a robust set of things that we're doing that we have a pretty high level of confidence will help position us well, not just in LLMs, but frankly, in any search medium that people may use.

Alexander Paris

Obviously, it's important. But again, just to be clear, you've not really seen any material impact from the AEO as opposed to SEO on unaffiliated enrollment?

Karl McDonnell

Yes. Because -- I mean, put yourself in our position, Alex, it would be next to impossible to ascribe any rate of change to LLM or any other single variable. We're happy with the demand that we're getting. In health care, in particular, it's much stronger than what we expected. The growth of those new programs is far ahead of where we expected them to be by as much as a year perhaps. But we're not ignoring it. We have people that are focused on it. We expect that over time, the evolution will become more apparent. I just would say it's very early, and we haven't been able to ascribe any changes to that specifically.

Alexander Paris

Got you. And then my last question quickly on ANZ. I appreciate you are controlling the controllables, campus expansions, new campuses, a focus on domestic. But is there any light at the end of the tunnel with regulatory? Obviously, this has been going on for a couple of years now. And we thought that there'd be an improvement this year because of the lifting of the caps. But by slow rolling the visas, it's had an even more dramatic effect on international enrollment. Any additional color there would be great.

Karl McDonnell

I was a little surprised, frankly, that the transfer requirement to get a new Visa was implemented. That was not something that we anticipated. It is what it is. Eventually, we're going to get to a new normal, a normalized rate of international enrollment. I think we're much closer to that as opposed to being further away from it. And if we continue to grow domestic growth in the high single digits as we're doing or frankly, even in the low double digits when we add the additional capacity in Adelaide and Perth, eventually, that's going to result in new student growth, which, as I said in my prepared remarks, I think could be in the latter half of next year, leading to total enrollment growth in the first part of '28.

And then if we get an easing of these restrictions, which some people in Australia think will happen over the coming several years, then that will just be added sort of enrollment that we'll get. We're not building a strategy around it. We're accepting it for what it is and building all of our growth capital around the domestic market. And given, as I said, the strong performance of Torrens academically in the federal QILT survey, we think we're well positioned to grow our domestic market share.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question will come from the line of Jasper Bibb from Truist Securities.

Jasper Bibb

Apologies if I missed it, but I guess I just wanted to understand how you're thinking about EBIT margin expansion in '26 at this point. I guess, for me, it would be helpful if you could kind of frame 4Q expectations so we have the right jumping off point for all the kind of helpful '27 color you gave on the call.

Karl McDonnell

Jasper, yes, it might be a bad connection. I'm not sure I got the full question. I think it was '26 EBIT margin. Was that your question?

Jasper Bibb

Yes, I apologize. I'm switching to speaker phone now. Hopefully, you can hear me better...

Karl McDonnell

That's much better.

Jasper Bibb

I just wanted to understand kind of 4Q expectations so we have the right jumping off point for kind of all the '27 comments you gave earlier on the call.

Daniel Jackson

Jasper, you talking about margin, right?

Jasper Bibb

Yes, margin or, I mean, revenue, if you have it?

Daniel Jackson

Yes. Well, we don't give revenue -- forward-looking revenue, and -- but we have commented on margin, as you know, relative to the notional model of 200 basis points of expansion. Karl just mentioned that we're well off of that at this point. However, as we said last quarter, when you adjust for the FWO reserve we took in the second quarter, we're actually not too far off of the 200 basis points.

Jasper Bibb

Okay. And then I just maybe wanted to -- if we could spend a little bit more time on just kind of what you're seeing in U.S. Higher Ed right now and kind of how that's informing your expectations for '27? Enrollment is down like a little bit, but I think retention is going up. So I would assume new starts in the U.S. might be down more than enrollment right now. I guess, could you just kind of frame what you're seeing in new starts in the U.S. and how that informs your expectations for next year?

Karl McDonnell

Sure. Well, as I said, health care is very strong, growing almost double digits, 9% in the last quarter. It's well over half of our enrollments now. So we're confident that, that's going to continue to grow. And I suspect the growth rate will increase given the strength of the new pre-licensure programs. The undergraduate unaffiliated has been declining. Part of that is just a function that we've been deploying more of our growth capital into health care and not into undergraduate business. As Alex noted, and I confirm that the decline is moderating. We think it will continue to moderate.

So net of everything that we're seeing, I suspect that we're going to have net positive new student enrollment growth in '27. And the division as a whole will sort of mean revert toward mid-single digits as we work our way through the year.

Jasper Bibb

Okay. That makes sense. Maybe last one for me. The subscriptions at Sophia just slowed a little bit from the second quarter. Is that kind of harder comps? Or have you seen any impact on subs growth or retention from kind of the recent changes you made to the platform over the summer?

Karl McDonnell

It's almost entirely a function of anniversarying that large corporate client that we have. If you excluded that corporate client, direct-to-consumer subscription growth is still close to 20% and growing, holding that growth rate. So it's really a function of the anniversarying of that one client that's quite large.

Operator

I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I'd like to turn it back over to Karl McDonnell, CEO, for closing remarks.

Karl McDonnell

Thank you, everybody. We look forward to discussing our fourth quarter results with you in February.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.