威瑞信 (VRSN) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会议：域名注册量创纪录并上调业绩指引

核心要点

• 威睿信（Verisign）2026财年第三季度实现营收4.43亿美元，同比增长5.7%。营业利润增长4.2%至2.96亿美元，稀释后每股收益从上年同期的2.27美元升至2.35美元。
• .com和.net域名注册总量达到1.825亿个，同比增长6.1%，较上一季度增加340万个。新注册量达到创纪录的1310万个。
• 管理层上调并收窄了2026财年域名注册量增长指引至6.5%-7.0%。目前预计全年营收为17.55亿美元至17.60亿美元。
• 第三季度预计续费率从上年同期的75.4%降至74.3%，主要原因是首次续费在域名总量中的占比提高。
• 威睿信计划于12月中旬启动.web日升期（Sunrise），随后在1月中旬进入限制注册期，并可能在2027年4月初全面开放注册。
• 公司预计将在年底前确定Verisign Informed服务的最终定价，并计划于2027年上半年开始正式交付生产服务。

关键财务数据

过去12个月，威睿信通过股票回购和股息向股东累计回报11.4亿美元。董事会批准了每股0.81美元的季度现金股息，将于2026年11月24日发放给截至11月17日登记在册的股东。截至本季度末，股票回购授权额度还剩13.6亿美元。

业务与运营表现

.com和.net域名总量达到1.825亿个，同比增长6.1%。本季度净增加340万个，而新注册量从2026财年第二季度的1270万个和上年同期的1060万个增至1310万个。

管理层指出美国和欧洲、中东及非洲地区（EMEA）是增长最强劲的区域。公司将注册增长动能归因于域名注册商的营销计划、获客活动，以及降低域名检索、网站建设和内容维护门槛的AI工具。

预计续费率为74.3%，低于2025财年第三季度的75.4%。管理层表示，首次续费率维持在40%中段区间，而此前已续费域名的续费率维持在80%中段区间。整体续费率下降的原因在于近期新注册量的增长导致首次续费的占比提高。

威睿信还表示，其分析表明，可识别的新注册域名集中在“网络在线展示（online presence）”群体，管理层将其称为续费表现最好的客户群体。

公司平均每天处理约8000亿次DNS查询，并强调其.com和.net域名DNS已保持超过29年全球无间断运行。

.web推出计划

威睿信计划于12月中旬启动为期30天的.web日升期。限制注册期定于1月中旬开始，并可能持续至2027年4月初，之后预计将全面开放注册。

在限制注册期间，大多数.com注册人将有机会注册完全匹配的.web域名。定价仍在最终敲定中。管理层打算利用注册局协议在溢价域名、营销和注册商合作方面的灵活性。

Verisign Informed服务

Verisign Informed是一项证书状态安全服务，旨在为数字信任决策提供最新的吊销信息。管理层表示，该服务已在威睿信的基础设施中运行，目前正进入测试阶段。

公司预计将在年底前完成定价与服务方案组合，并于2027年上半年开始正式交付生产服务。威睿信表示，该产品可通过其现有注册商渠道、PKI服务提供商、应用软件厂商或自选服务模式进行分发。从2024年至今以及公司2026财年指引中的所有Verisign Informed相关费用，均已包含在已公布的财务业绩和预测中。

管理层业绩指引

营业利润指引包含了第三季度确认的与持有待售资产相关的750万美元费用。管理层还指出，第四季度的假期通常会导致注册量出现一定的季节性放缓。

风险与关注焦点

• 鉴于首次续费域名的续费率大幅低于此前已续费域名，首次续费占比的提高预计将对公布的续费率持续施加压力。
• 经营性现金流和自由现金流同比下降，主要原因是现金税费以及向员工和供应商支付的款项增加。
• .web和Verisign Informed的定价仍处于最终确定阶段，威睿信未提供这两项服务的营收预期。
• 管理层表示，在.com批发价格上涨0.71美元之前，尚未观察到明显的提前续费活动。
• 自威睿信宣布.com涨价以来，注册商的零售价格仅上涨了约1%或更少，使得最终的零售端反应及续费影响仍存在不确定性。

分析师问答精选

管理层表示，域名注册量的增长反映了新企业成立、注册商营销、数字服务广泛应用以及AI相关顺风因素的共同作用。AI工具使得搜索域名和建站更加便捷，而内容创作者也日益希望其内容能在网上被搜索到。

在续费质量方面，管理层报告称底层客户群体的行为模式未发生重大变化。首次续费率维持在40%中段区间，后续续费率维持在80%中段区间。因此，综合续费率下降主要是由结构改变引起的效应。

关于.com涨价，威睿信表示注册商在生效日前并未大幅提高零售价格或加速续费。公司预计批发提价部分约50%将在2027年转化为营收，其余大部分将在2028年确认。

对于Verisign Informed，管理层强调了利用其DNS服务的速度、可靠性和基础设施在全球范围内交付证书吊销信息的能力。不过，公司表示目前要明确最终的变现单位或详细的产品市场契合度里程碑还为时过早。

威睿信还确认，.pki是其在新一轮ICANN申请中申请的唯一顶级域名。管理层认为该域名与其Verisign Informed及公司更广泛的安全服务密切相关。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good day, everyone. Welcome to Verisign's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Today's conference is being recorded. Recording of this call is not permitted unless preauthorized. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. David Atchley, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Treasurer. Please go ahead, sir.

David Atchley

Thank you, operator. Welcome to Verisign's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me are Jim Bidzos, Executive Chairman, President and CEO; and John Calys, Executive Vice President and CFO. This call and presentation are being webcast from the Investor Relations website, which is available under About Verisign on verisign.com. There, you will also find our earnings release. At the end of this call, the presentation will be available on that site. And within a few hours, the replay of the call will be posted.

Financial results in our earnings release are unaudited, and our remarks include forward-looking statements that are subject to the risks and uncertainties that we discuss in detail in our documents filed with the SEC, specifically the most recent reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q. Verisign does not plan to update financial performance or guidance during the quarter.

The financial results in today's call and the matters we will be discussing today include GAAP results and free cash flow, a non-GAAP measure used by Verisign. GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliation information is appended to the slide presentation, which can be found on the Investor Relations section of our website, available after this call. Jim and John will provide some prepared remarks. And afterward, we will open the call for your questions.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Jim.

D. Bidzos

Thank you, David. Good afternoon to everyone, and thank you for joining us. We're pleased to report that Verisign delivered strong results in the third quarter of 2026, both operationally and financially. The combined .com and .net domain name base now totals 182.5 million names, up 6.1% year-over-year, with a record 13.1 million new registrations processed during the third quarter. On the financial side, revenue was up 5.7% year-over-year. We have returned $1.14 billion to our shareholders in the last 12 months through share repurchases and dividends.

As announced in today's earnings release, Verisign's Board of Directors approved a cash dividend of $0.81 per share of Verisign's outstanding common stock to shareholders of record as of the close of business on November 17, 2026, payable on November 24, 2026. Verisign intends to continue to pay a cash dividend on a quarterly basis. At quarter end, $1.36 billion remained authorized for share repurchases.

Verisign's performance in the third quarter shows continued robust demand for domain names. During the quarter, the domain name base for .com and .net grew by 3.4 million from the prior quarter end. New registrations for the third quarter totaled 13.1 million. This compares with 12.7 million new registrations last quarter and 10.6 million for the third quarter of last year. The renewal rate for the third quarter of 2026 is expected to be 74.3% compared to 75.4% a year ago. The primary driver of this year-over-year decrease in renewal rates relates to the mix of first-time and previously renewed names, with a higher percentage of first-time renewing names due to last year's strength in new registrations.

As in recent quarters, the U.S. and EMEA were the regions in which we saw the strongest growth during the third quarter. The factors driving the solid domain name base trends in the past several quarters further accelerated during the third quarter. Registrars have successfully engaged with our marketing programs and are focused on customer acquisition, plus AI tools are making content and website creation faster and easier. The ongoing strength in new registrations attests to the vital role of the domain names play in discovering content and establishing digital credibility.

With the trends we've observed in the first 3 quarters of 2026 and our expectations for the rest of the year, we're increasing and narrowing our guidance for domain name base growth to be between 6.5% and 7% for 2026. As a reminder, you can monitor the progression of the domain name base on our website, which is updated daily.

As we stated last quarter, .web is delegated into the root zone, and we're actively preparing for its launch. We have been communicating to our registrars that the required 30-day Sunrise period is planned to begin in mid-December. In mid-January, we are planning to begin a limited registration period or LRP, which could run into early April 2027. At that point, we expect to open .web for general availability. During the LRP, most registrants of .com domain name will have an opportunity to register an exact match .web domain name. We're in the process of finalizing pricing and we'll be communicating our pricing plans to registrars over the next few weeks.

As we shared last quarter, the .web registry agreement allows for pricing flexibility, including premium names, which we intend to use. The agreement also gives us more flexibility in marketing and engaging with our registrars than we have in .com and .net. We're looking forward to launching .web and adding it to our portfolio of trusted domain names alongside .com and .net.

Now I'd like to turn the call over to John. I'll return when John has completed his financial report with closing remarks, including more information on Verisign Informed, our high-assurance validation service we announced earlier this month. John?

John Calys

Thank you, Jim, and good morning or good afternoon, everybody. For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, the company generated revenue of $443 million, up 5.7% from the same quarter a year ago. Operating expense in Q3 2026 totaled $147 million, which compared to $138 million last quarter and $135 million for the third quarter a year ago. During third quarter of 2026, the company recognized a pretax operating loss of $7.5 million related to certain assets held for sale, which accounted for the majority of the sequential increase in operating expenses.

Operating income totaled $296 million, up $12 million or 4.2% from the previous year and flat sequentially. Net income for the third quarter totaled $213 million compared to $217 million last quarter and $213 million for the same quarter a year ago. This resulted in diluted earnings per share of $2.35 for the third quarter this year, compared to $2.38 last quarter and $2.27 for the third quarter last year. The previously mentioned loss to adjust the carrying value of certain assets held for sale decreased EPS by $0.06 in the current period.

Operating cash flow for the third quarter of 2026 was $268 million and free cash flow was $261 million compared with $308 million and $303 million, respectively, in the year ago quarter. The year-over-year decrease is primarily related to higher cash taxes and payments to employees and vendors, partially offset by higher cash collected from customers in the third quarter this year. Our financial and liquidity position remained stable with $476 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at the end of the quarter.

I will now discuss our updated full year 2026 guidance. Revenue is now expected to be between $1.755 billion and $1.760 billion. Operating income is now expected to be between $1.188 billion and $1.192 billion, which reflects the $7.5 million expense booked during the third quarter, as mentioned before. Interest expense and nonoperating income, net is still expected to be an expense between $59 million and $65 million, capital expenditures are still expected to be between $55 million and $65 million. The GAAP effective tax rate is still expected to be between 22% and 25%.

Now I'll turn the call back to Jim for his closing remarks.

D. Bidzos

Thank you, John. We're pleased with the results of our core DNS business in Q3. We believe that our record of more than 29 years of uninterrupted .com/.net DNS global availability contributes to our domain growth by establishing and maintaining .com and .net as highly reliable and trusted TLDs, now processing approximately 800 billion DNS queries per day on average, returning cryptographically protected answers within milliseconds. With this unparalleled record of availability, reliability and performance, we use the term high assurance to describe our services. Very soon .web will join our family of trusted TLDs, and it will allow us to offer more choice to customers, and they will benefit from Verisign's rigorous attention to availability and reliability. We're very pleased to be on track to bring .web to market in just a few months.

As many of you know, we have recently announced another new product. On October 5, we announced Verisign Informed or VI, a security service to support the use of critically important and widely used digital credentials. There are many use cases for these credentials: authorized network access by users in corporate networks, secure e-mail, secure software distribution, including app updates and on billions of financial chip cards worldwide. Web certificates are used to establish a secure link when connecting to a website.

Like any credential, there are many reasons certificates may need to be revoked before their expiration date. Gaps in that process will result in stale trust. At its core, VI answers the question: has this certificate been revoked? It's easy to see how vital the answer to this question is in today's world. VI allows trust decisions to be made with the most current information at global scale and runs on our high assurance infrastructure, built with the same know-how and proprietary high-performance architecture that enables Verisign's DNS to provide cryptographically protected responses in milliseconds to billions of DNS queries per day. Our microsite, verisigninformed.com, contains several blogs and tech reports introducing VI and offering descriptions and measurements in risk reduction that VI can provide.

Three points I believe are of interest to investors. First, VI is fully operational in our infrastructure today. All financial data from 2024 up to and including our guidance through 2026 includes all VI expense. Second, pricing is being finalized now and should be completed by year-end with production service delivery expected during 1 half of 2027. Third, VI can be provisioned and operated like domains through our existing registrar channel, through existing PKI service providers and other application vendors or even through a self-service facility. Provisioning and delivering the service are nearly identical to those of our core offerings.

I'll close by saying that we have always seen ourselves as a critical infrastructure service provider that prioritizes security, stability and resiliency. That focus has delivered profitable growth for the company, and our focus will not change. We've established a record of disciplined capital allocation over many years that has delivered a compounding benefit through share repurchases now diversified with the dividend. We achieved our goal of earning investment-grade status in 2021, and we intend to maintain it. We believe our new services, carefully selected for alignment with our risk tolerance and core competencies, represent a carefully measured way to continue to deliver for both our customers and shareholders.

Thanks for your attention today. This concludes our prepared remarks. Now we'll open the call for your questions. Operator, we're ready for the first question.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Rob Oliver with Baird.

分析师问答

Robert Oliver

First one, Jim, it's a 2-parter for you. The gross domain adds continue to be stunningly strong, up 24% year-over-year. You guys added another over 13 million this quarter. So I was wondering if you could just touch on and remind us or update us on what you're seeing in terms of the drivers of that? I know clearly, AI, but are you also seeing digital provenance or other things like that playing into that?

And the follow-up question I have is regarding trends you're seeing in first-year renewals. You guys have been clear with us about the fact that, that renewal rate would be impacted by this large bolus of domain -- new domains that you have. But it sounds as if those first-year renewals have been coming in pretty strong. So I wanted to understand what you're seeing in terms of those -- the stickiness, the quality of those first-year renewal trends.

D. Bidzos

All right. Well, let me address your first question first. So some of the drivers that we're seeing in new registrations, which is, as you pointed out, 13.1 million during the quarter is a record for us. Q2 was a record for us. Key drivers that we see are -- what I referred to before as a synergistic convergence of demand for domain names from businesses, new business starts but also our marketing programs and an AI tailwind. And we are hearing from some registrars that AI is a factor. AI clearly makes it easier to find a domain name, develop a website and maintain a website. We're seeing that content creators want their content found by AI, and a domain name is one of the primary ways to have that content available.

I think what we've been saying historically for a number of years that the well-governed DNS is going to continue its value, the decades of investment in infrastructure like ours. Governance by ICANN, strengthening and ensuring that a domain name is a unique, trusted, secure, global identifier, I think, is really demonstrating its value in a world where people still get online for the fundamental purpose of being found and conducting commerce. And I think all that just really works together to drive that growth.

I think your second question, John, I'll let you address that about renewal rates.

John Calys

Rob, through the third quarter, what we've seen with our first-time renewal rates is they've remained fairly steady in the mid-40% range. And the previously renewed rates have been the same. They've remained fairly steady in the mid-80% range. So we haven't seen a great deal of movement either direction in those. But as Jim mentioned, with the strong new registrations, the mix of first-time renewing names is growing in proportion to the total base, and that does result just from math in the renewal rate going down. We are going to be watching very closely next year because this year's registrations have been very strong, and we'll be looking to see if there's any trends in the first-time renewal rates, but nothing of significance to report to you right now.

Robert Oliver

Great. Thanks, John. Jim, I just had one follow-up for you, and then I'll cede the floor. I'd love to get your take on just the timing of .web. It strikes me you guys might be in a unique position here relative to the timing of this pretty strong generic TLD which is coming out ahead and by a period of time of many of the new TLDs that will come out as part of the auction. So I wanted to get a sense from you of if that's right, if that early access to the market is a benefit to you guys? And any other way you can help us think about that timing or frame that opportunity?

D. Bidzos

Yes. Thanks, Rob. Well, I -- certainly you stated -- made some factual statements about the timing. That's true. I think the strength of .web is what it's always been. It is a short, generic, relevant TLD, operating in our infrastructure, our high assurance infrastructure. I'm kind of looking beyond the short-term period. I do understand and I do agree there's an opportunity. There will be another round, but it's a ways down the road, and there's an opportunity here with .web. But I think the strength of running on a reliable infrastructure with its track record, providing more choice to our customers with a short, relevant TLD is going to be a value proposition that will continue beyond this opportunity that we may have in the short term.

I think the flexibility that we have in marketing and all of the things that come with a pure generic TLD that's not regulated the way .com and .net are, all those things play well. I think the enduring value of a domain name plays well. Certainly, the timing is good. We waited a long time. It would have been nice to have it sooner, but I think there's always room for a secure, reliable domain name that gives people more choice, and that's how we view it. We see .web as another member of the trusted family of .com and .net that's provided 29 years of 100% availability. And I think that value is going to be -- continue to be enduring the longer that record gets.

Operator

We will take our next question from Ygal Arounian with Wedbush.

Ygal Arounian

I want to maybe just follow up first on Rob's first question. You're adding -- going to be adding about 11 million domains this year. I mean, that's, I think, going back as high as it's been in decades, if I'm not mistaken. And I know it's being driven by multiple factors. But if I can get you to look forward a little bit, Jim, into next year, like what gets this to slow down? It feels like AI trends and agentic in particular, as that starts to pick up, especially when you guys point to things like queries and the rate of change that you're seeing in query growth. It feels like this strength has a lot of runway, and I just want to maybe get some of your thoughts as we look forward into next year without getting guidance.

D. Bidzos

Sure. I guess I would point to what we see as the very long trend lines here. First of all, there's just simply a growing -- the economy is built on a digital platform that continues to grow. So there's constant new adoption of delivering services digitally. There is greater reliance on digital services. Cloud service providers, new entrants offering new services, more businesses converting to online, the efficiencies that come. AI is a relatively recent driver and certainly contributing to that as well.

So I see the combination of that long trend line of just simple growth and adoption of online services, the ongoing move towards more digital efficient services, AI as a boost and the enduring value of a domain name and the very mature and trusted because of all the security that's been built in over the last decades in the DNS, our infrastructure, I think, is an important component of that. I just see those long trend lines. And I kind of -- I don't think in terms of quarters or years, obviously, we do as we report quarterly and annually, but I think those trend lines run much longer, and I think they bode well.

I think also our carefully assessed and measured addition of Verisign Informed to our offerings, the way it leverages our infrastructure. I think the long trend line favors that as well. New advanced services, agentic AI, et cetera, I think we're already seeing evidence that there are security challenges that come. We think offering tools that can close security gaps are very important. So we tend to take the longer-term view, but I think you could certainly -- looking out a year, I can see all of those factors coming into play. Registrars are very engaged. They are seeking more customers. There are a lot of factors driving their business as well.

So there's quite a bit of synergy in all of the factors that are driving this growth. And there may be ups and downs along the way. There always are, but I think the long trend line is really strong, and that's what we keep our eye on.

Ygal Arounian

Okay. Great. Very helpful there. And I want to ask, maybe if we could elaborate a little bit more on Verisign Informed. I guess first, can you help us understand why Verisign has the right to win in this business versus other cybersecurity providers, why enterprises or consumers are choosing Verisign and not, maybe particularly on the enterprise side, but on both on what you can hit? And then I know you talked about pricing, finalizing pricing plans. But if you could help investors think through what the -- maybe not the actual price, but the structure, what does pricing look like? How should we be thinking about -- again, not the actual number, but what it means in general and how to think about it? Any help there would be great.

D. Bidzos

Sure. Well, let me take those in reverse order. I think with respect to pricing, we're just a few months away from having more to say about that, which I think will help people assess the opportunity. As I mentioned, we think this is a leveraged, carefully assessed core offering that -- where the real synergy and what I think will make Verisign Informed strong back to your -- the first part of your question, why Verisign Informed? I think it's really, first of all, OCSP, the online certificate status protocol, is difficult to do as quickly as we do DNS and operating in our infrastructure. We're going to offer that level of performance.

And the key distinction here is that there are a couple of things we can do. Number one is that at the time of making the trust decision, and here's another important aspect, whether that's a person-to-machine interaction or whether it's a machine-to-machine interaction, which it clearly will be with the agentic AI becoming prevalent, performance, speed and reliability matter. I think all of those aspects of our high assurance infrastructure, combined with this service, which closes these gaps if you don't do credential revocation, certificate revocation quickly, those gaps can be exploited.

I think if we're learning anything at this point, we can see that AI is extremely good at identifying vulnerabilities, and those usually are followed up very quickly with AI-enabled attack chains and closing all vulnerability windows as much as possible is really important and I think going to increase in importance. And I think we just have a solid offering.

So with respect to why Verisign Informed, I would say, it offers the sort of -- and I think if you look at some of our blogs, I would say demonstrable reduction in risk when making trust decisions that are better informed. And I think that value proposition will be of a great interest to a lot of folks out there. We're seeing it already in the financial industry. I think that will grow in our opinion.

Operator

We will take our next question from Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis with Citi.

Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis

Two here, if I may. First of all, with the .com price increase coming into effect, any early color here on registrar pricing actions or customer renewal rate benefits that you're seeing that could be mitigating the first-time renewal headwinds that you talked about earlier?

John Calys

Jamesmichael, this is John. We've been watching closely what our registrars are doing with pricing. And at least for the last 3 months since we've announced the price increase, I think that was last April or -- yes, for .com. We haven't seen a significant increase in pricing on new registrations or renewals. Our analysis shows it's -- the price increases during that time period are in the neighborhood of 1% or even less. So we haven't seen a lot of move. In the past, when we've done price increases, we have seen some registrars in advance of the effective date raise prices or in conjunction with the effective date. But so far, that's something we haven't seen a lot of, but we do continue to keep our eye on that.

Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis

Perfect. I...

D. Bidzos

I guess I would just add -- sorry, go ahead. Didn't mean to interrupt.

Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis

No, go ahead.

D. Bidzos

I was just going to add to that. The price increase is $0.71. And I think given that we don't control the retail price, of course, that's set by the registrars. And it's a modest price increase that they can certainly absorb and adjust accordingly. But the impact on the retail channel, where prices are unregulated is different than our pricing. And we did provide as required 6 months' notice of the price increase. So it's not a surprise.

Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis

Understood. Follow-up here on the ICANN gTLD rounds. We saw like .pki news, but there are other TLDs out there that are pretty key, including .agent. So curious if you could elaborate on your strategic approach overall to a new TLD acquisition.

D. Bidzos

Sorry, Jamesmichael. That was a specific question about .pki?

Jamesmichael Sherman-Lewis

.pki and your strategic approach to new TLDs.

D. Bidzos

Yes. Well, PKI, of course, stands for public key infrastructure. This is something that actually, Verisign's parent company, RSA, brought to market back in the '80s and '90s. We wrote the standards. We enabled the first browsers with a full PKI suite that allowed e-commerce to flourish with security and the ability to conduct commerce.

And so PKI has only grown since then. It's the critical trust component of much of the commerce that's conducted on the Internet. Not only that, it also includes, as I mentioned, all the different use cases, code distribution and lots of other things.

And so we think that there -- we have announced Verisign Informed. That is very much a PKI-related service, and we think that there are some interesting things we're looking at and considering with .pki. We chose carefully, and that is the only TLD that we applied for. But we think it's very relevant to the security services that we provide.

Operator

And we will take our last question from Alexei Gogolev with JPMorgan.

Alexei Gogolev

Jim, I was wondering if you can maybe provide a bit more color and decompose 3Q net adds into gross adds versus deletions and specifically how deletion and churn rates are performing, including any post-promo churn? How is that trending versus last year?

John Calys

So if I understand your question, you want commentary, Alexei, on how our new registrations relate to the deletes and the trends in deletes? Is that fair?

Alexei Gogolev

Yes, because I'm trying to understand like what are you incorporating in the guidance of 6.5% to 7%, like what sort of assumptions are embedded in terms of gross adds, deletions, renewals and mix. So just trying to understand some of the...

John Calys

Okay. So well, typically, we don't guide on each individual component. So that's the first thing. What I would say is we do see continued good demand for registrations and we expect that to hold up reasonably well. Of course, fourth quarter has the holiday season in it. And that usually creates a little bit of a seasonal downturn for us.

As far as deletions go, I think it's really what we've already talked about, and that is we're going to continue to see a greater mix of first-time renewing names. Those names renew at almost half the rate of previously renewed names. And so as the proportion of the entire base has more first-time renewing names, it's just a natural occurrence that the renewal rate will drop slightly. So we are forecasting that for the fourth quarter.

Beyond that, I don't know if there's more that I can say. I don't know, Jim, if you have any additional comments on that?

D. Bidzos

Yes. Well, I think your question was about trends. And I guess there are no trends that we think are significant such that we're calling them out as something substantially different than what we've done in the past. What John described a first-time renewal rate in the 40s and a second or subsequent renewal rate in the mid-80s has held pretty constant. Whenever we get a boost. I mean, we saw this in 2016 when we had a large China surge, we saw first-time renewal rates just kind of fall off the edge in the year and 2 that followed because of the huge sudden and abrupt number of first-time renewing rates.

I think this isn't nearly as dramatic as that. And secondly, I think the underlying drivers for these registrations is quite different. I think that our analysis, I can share this. Our analysis of the website -- I'm sorry, the new registrations that we're getting to the extent we can identify the purpose of the websites is that they fall into our cohort that is the best renewing cohort, the online presence cohort. I think this sort of ties into people finding it easier with AI to develop a meaningful website and get an online presence.

So I think in the long run, we'll see basically, sort of, if there are any significant deviations, some regression to the mean. It's held over a very, very long period of time.

Alexei Gogolev

And you noted that the registrar retail pricing has only moved about 1% or less since the April .com notice. So do you expect a step-up closer to the effective date? And what's your best read on elasticity versus renewal impact from that $0.71 wholesale increase?

D. Bidzos

Yes, that's a tough one to answer. I think that what we're seeing with the various tailwinds and the various factors driving these new registrations. Obviously, if we're seeing a benefit from it, the registrars are seeing even more because they have the freedom of pricing. And of course, they have a base of .coms that renew. Many registrars are renewing .coms at twice the wholesale price.

So I think that that's a factor that just sort of argues that it might be easier for them to -- it might be easier to stay focused on what they're doing. I can't speak for them. But I think that if they have found formulas that are working, perhaps they've had 6 months to prepare. And so maybe it's a rate of growth that they enjoy and want to continue. I'm not sure, but it's a modest increase that I think they can absorb.

They do -- we track their retail prices, of course, and there's certainly room there. But I think they're selling -- they're obviously selling the domain names that we're registering. So they're getting a benefit. I expect they're making decisions that drive their business, which drives ours.

Alexei Gogolev

And just to clarify, are you seeing any meaningful early renewal activity ahead of the .com increase, like maybe a cash pull forward or a renewal date shift? And how should we think about the knock-on impact to the timing of recognized revenue versus cash?

D. Bidzos

That's for John, I think.

John Calys

Yes. Alexei, we have not seen a lot of early renewals at this point. So we're not necessarily seeing a pull forward of renewals to the lower price point pre-November 1. Obviously, we watch for that, but we have not seen any significant evidence of that. There's still another week or so before the price increase, so I can't predict what has happened during that time. But we haven't seen anything yet.

D. Bidzos

I think I'd just add, too, that even with the price increase, .com is still very, very competitively priced with respect to all of the other generic TLDs that are out there. I think that's a factor. The average price of those other TLDs is much higher than .com's, even with this price increase. That's true.

David Atchley

And then, Alexei, to your second point, I just wanted to mention, and I think we addressed this maybe on the last call as far as the revenue recognition. We said in the last call that expect about 50% of the .com price increase to flow through in revenue in 2027. Most of the rest of that in 2028. I don't know if that was the second part of your question, but I just wanted to touch on that.

Alexei Gogolev

Yes, I just wanted to confirm that, that hasn't changed. And final question, Jim. So at a high level, what's the monetization unit for Informed? Is it going to be per OCSP query or maybe per certificate? And what milestones between now and first half of next year, would you point to that would validate that the product market fit?

D. Bidzos

So I think the best way to answer that question is to ask you to follow our microsite, Verisign Informed. We are posting blogs that provide additional information. We're very engaged in a number of standards bodies, both the American National Standards Institute, the C2PA creators forum. There are standards engagement, and we're engaged with a variety of service providers and we'll be providing updates on that website. I would say right now, there's -- we announced also that we're opening the beta phase.

So I think you'll start seeing things roll out on that website. So the high-level plan, as I mentioned, is pricing by the end of the year, pricing structure and availability of the service in the first half of 2027. But all of those updates will be rolling out. There are also a number of seminars that we're doing jointly with Forrester and some other folks. We've already done one. We'll be doing some other public events. So there'll be a steady rollout of information that I think will give you the complete picture.

I think it's a bit early for me to sort of predict exactly how that will play out or what the milestones will be. We're certainly seeing substantial interest and activity. This is -- security is only becoming more important. So the interest is high. And I think -- what we are seeing this -- I think we're seeing an understanding and an appreciation for what the synergy that comes from our high assurance infrastructure and providing this service globally at the level of performance that we can. We've seen how some people rethinking this, understanding that something that perhaps they didn't think was actually practically available as a practical matter is. So we'll see how that plays out. But follow the microsite, and I think you'll -- and obviously, we'll update you every quarter.

Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call back to David Atchley for any closing remarks.

David Atchley

Thank you, operator. Please call the Investor Relations department with any follow-up questions from this call. Thank you for your participation. This concludes our call. Have a good evening.

Operator

This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.