品纳克金融伙伴 (PNFP) 2026年第三季度业绩电话会：调整后每股收益增长19%

平纳克金融伙伴（PNFP）公布2026财年第三季度稀释每股收益为2.40美元，调整后稀释每股收益为2.69美元。在资产负债表扩张、手续费收入强劲增长以及积极经营杠杆的支撑下，调整后每股收益环比增长8%，同比增长19%。

核心要点

• 调整后稀释每股收益达2.69美元，同比增长19%，环比增长8%。今年迄今调整后每股收益增长23%。
• 期末贷款较上一季度增加17亿美元，折合年化增长率为8%，主要由工商贷款领涨。存款增加21亿美元。
• 净利息收入环比增加3000万美元至9.86亿美元，净息差则下滑4个基点至3.40%。
• 受创纪录的BHG业务量、2300万美元的设备租赁收益以及核心手续费业务有机增长的推动，调整后非利息收入增加5300万美元，增幅达19%。
• 信贷质量保持稳定：净冲销额为5000万美元，即23个基点；不良资产率维持在0.50%。
• 管理层维持其2026财年业绩指引，其中贷款增长预计处于9%–11%指引区间的高段附近，存款增长预计处于8%–10%指引区间的居中位置附近。

核心财务业绩

业务与经营表现

工商贷款再次贡献了本季度贷款增长的大部分。管理层表示，各区域市场和专业部门均实现扩张，其中专业融资、专业商业地产和金融机构部门的贡献尤为强劲。招聘和业务增长最强劲的地区是卡罗莱纳州、佛罗里达州和佐治亚州。

调整后非利息收入环比增长19%。BHG投资收益从第二季度的2400万美元升至4800万美元，反映出创纪录的业务量以及有利的融资与分销组合。管理层将BHG全年的收益预期从7月份给出的1.1亿至1.2亿美元上调至1.5亿至1.6亿美元。

核心银行业务手续费收入同比增长约10%，财富管理收入增长11%，资本市场收入增长23%。今年迄今，并购相关的收入协同效应共计约2000万美元。管理层继续以实现超过1亿美元的收入协同效应为目标，并预计在统一平台转换后将获得额外收益。

PNFP在第三季度新增了96位经验丰富的创收人员，今年迄今累计新增222位。管理层预计2026财年的招聘人数将突破最初225至250人目标的上限。今年迄今创收人员留存率为95%。

公司表示，入职不足一年的客户经理通过对公司的贡献，已能覆盖其约88%的现金薪酬；入职一至三年的客户经理所创造的效益已达其现金薪酬的二至三倍。

业务及品牌整合转换仍按计划定于2027年3月进行。公司已完成客户服务、住房抵押贷款发放、健康储蓄账户及部分资本市场能力的迁移。管理层表示，在已完成的838个测试脚本中，人工智能处理了近80%的脚本编写，使所需时间缩短了约70%，同时员工审批和验证依然是该流程的一部分。

管理层业绩指引

管理层维持其2026财年的主要业绩指引区间不变：

• 贷款增长：预计接近9%–11%区间的高段。
• 存款增长：预计接近8%–10%区间的居中位置，相当于全年约90亿美元。
• 全年净息差：3.44%–3.46%。
• 第四季度净息差：预计处于3.40%低段至中段区间，较第三季度略有升高。
• 调整后营收：预计略高于公司公布指引区间的居中位置。
• BHG收益：1.5亿至1.6亿美元，高于此前的1.1亿至1.2亿美元。
• 调整后非利息支出：预计略高于26.75亿至27.75亿美元区间的居中位置。
• 调整后有效税率：预计接近20%–21%区间的居中位置。
• 净冲销额：预计处于20–25个基点的区间内。

今年迄今，并购相关费用已达3.82亿美元。管理层表示，这与其此前给出的4亿至4.5亿美元的全年指引保持一致。

公司计划于12月提供正式的2027财年展望。管理层指出，固定利率资产的重新定价在2027年及2028年期间应持续带来正面效益，但流动性要求和批发资金支持的资产增长可能会对净息差带来温和压力。

风险与关注领域

• 流动性储备：PNFP计划在合并后的前三年内，每年继续发行约10亿美元的债券。债券发行和优质流动性资产的增长预计将对融资成本和净息差施加压力。
• 存款成本：管理层预计，在不追加加息的前提下，2026年底总存款成本将接近2.30%。利率上升也可能对无息存款结构造成轻微压力。
• 商业地产需求：在当前的利率环境下，管理层预计商业地产（CRE）不会出现大幅增长，因为更高的融资成本和估值压力使得交易在经济效益上更难承销。
• 准备金要求：拨备中对低于共识预期的经济设想赋予了45%的权重。如果经济展望保持不变，持续的贷款增长预计将需要额外的计提准备金。
• 转换执行：统一系统和品牌的转换仍定于2027年3月进行。端到端测试和一线准备工作仍是实施的重中之重。
• BHG敏感性：管理层形容BHG的信贷表现依然强劲，但也承认其面向消费者的产品无法完全免受更广泛消费环境恶化的影响。

分析师问答要点

管理层表示，资产负债表增量部分的净息差约为3.30%。这并不意味着公司整体净息差会立即降至该水平，但随着低息差增量在资产负债表中占比扩大，可能会产生温和的下行压力。

固定利率资产的重新定价预计将在2027年及2028年期间提供支撑。管理层指出，9月份新增贷款的收益率约为6.6%，而1月份收购贷款组合的收益率为6.3%。

在信贷方面，管理层表示，在可预见的未来，当前20–25个基点的净冲销区间可能依然适用。管理层强调将继续监控商业地产、非存款类金融机构、杠杆贷款和特许经营贷款，同时表示组合未出现广泛恶化。

资本配置首要重点仍是客户驱动型增长。PNFP正向10.25%的CET1目标迈进（本季度末为10.01%）。管理层表示，在达到目标区间并确认有超额资本可用后，可能会考虑股份回购。

在存款方面，管理层预计第四季度的增长将包括经常性核心流入、季节性公共资金及商业余额，以及部分经纪存款增长。过去一年招聘的新商业客户经理带来的存款略多于贷款，为公司的核心融资策略提供了支撑。

业绩电话会议完整文字记录

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完整财报电话会议逐字稿

管理层陈述

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Pinnacle Financial Partners Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Note this event is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Sam Tyagi, Senior Director, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Samantha W. Tyagi

Thank you, and good morning. During today's quarterly earnings call, we will reference the slides, investor release that are available within the Investor Relations section of our website, pnfp.com. President and CEO, Kevin Blair, will begin the call. He will be followed by our Chief Financial Officer, Jamie Gregory, and they will be available to answer your questions at the end of the call.

Our comments include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, and the actual results could vary materially. We list these factors that might cause results to differ materially in our press release and in our SEC filings, which are available on our website. We do not assume any obligation to update any forward-looking statements because of new information, early developments or otherwise, except as may be required by law. During the call, we will reference non-GAAP financial measures related to the company's performance. You may see the reconciliation of these measures in the appendix to our presentation.

And now Kevin Blair will provide an overview of the quarter.

Kevin Blair

Thank you, Sam, and good morning, everyone. Three quarters in, we are executing on the things we said mattered. For our team, that meant protecting the culture, hiring the best bankers in our markets and removing the distractions that get between them and their clients. For our clients, it has meant more visibility, more proactive advice and continuing to exceed what they expect from us, even as our bankers adapt to one unified model. And for all of it, while preparing for a conversion, that will unite our platform seamlessly and give clients functionality and capabilities they did not have before. That is what moves a merger past the question of "Whether it will work?" and on to "Why it is working so well?" Every quarter since close has added to the evidence. This one continues that trend. It's why we remain convinced on the significant shareholder value in this deal. For the third quarter of 2026, we reported diluted EPS of $2.40 and adjusted diluted EPS of $2.69, excluding $56 million of pretax adjusted items. Year-to-date, adjusted EPS is up 23% over the same period last year.

Let me start with growth on the balance sheet. The third quarter is one more proof point that this model is built to deliver outsized growth. Loans grew $1.7 billion linked quarter, led again by C&I. Deposits grew $2.1 billion, well ahead of what the combined firm has historically produced in the third quarter. Together, that drove net interest income up 3% linked quarter, and we have now grown NII more than 2% in every quarter since close. 3 quarters in a row is a pattern, and the pattern is the point.

Fee income was a standout. Adjusted noninterest revenue grew 19% linked quarter, helped by a record production quarter at BHG and a gain in our equipment leasing business. What I want you to hear is what sits underneath these 2 items. Core banking, wealth management and capital markets are up double digits year-to-date on a combined basis, different line item on the income statement, same pattern. Expenses are aligned with the strategy. The dollars are going where we said they would go, into bankers and into technology. The discipline shows up in positive operating leverage, which we delivered again this quarter and drove the 95 basis point improvement in our adjusted tangible efficiency ratio from the second quarter. Investing for growth and improving efficiency at the same time is exactly the point of this combination, same pattern.

Credit remains a strength. Net charge-offs landed inside our 20 to 25 basis point range for the third straight quarter, and the nonperforming assets ratio was flat, at 50 basis points. The loans we are putting on the books are high quality, and we are not seeing broad-based stress anywhere in the portfolio. Growth at this pace, with credit this clean is what the Pinnacle model has consistently delivered, again, same pattern. We also built capital again this quarter. preliminary CET1 increased 8 basis points, while we funded $1.7 billion of loan growth. That is the earnings power of this franchise showing up in the capital ratios. The recurring question about a merger is talent. "do the bankers stay, and can you still recruit?" Recruiting has not slowed, and it is not flatlined. It is running well ahead of what the 2 companies produce combined in 2025. We added 96 experienced revenue producers this quarter, 222 year-to-date, and October is running strong enough that we expect to clear the top end of our original 225 to 250 target. More than half of this year's hires came into core Synovus markets. That was the revenue synergy we underwrote in this deal, and it is showing up in the numbers today.

Net growth in revenue producers is also running ahead of our expectations because retention is holding up alongside recruiting. Producer retention, excluding merger-related synergies, is 95% year-to-date. That is better than our historical years, and we posted it in the middle of a merger. It says a lot about the underlying model. Synovus bankers see what it offers and want to be part of it and the Pinnacle bankers see that nothing about how they serve clients has changed. Clients keep the bankers they choose, which is why they know us, they value us most. And the clients are staying with them, Coalition Greenwich filled at its latest survey 6 months after closing, which is about the hardest moment you could pick to ask clients how they feel about their bank. They ranked Pinnacle #1 in our Net Promoter Score amongst the larger banks in our footprint against an expanded peer set, and our score rose 2 points from the first quarter. The same study shows Pinnacle leading in clients expecting to do more business with us over the next 6 to 12 months at a level much higher than our peers.

The attrition data tells the same story. Non-CD deposit account closures are down in 2026 versus 2025 in both dollars and number of accounts. When a bank of our size goes through a combination, you expect some clients to head for the door, fewer are leaving this year than last. Market share closes the loop. The latest FDIC data shows Pinnacle growing deposits at almost 3x the pace of our MSA footprint on a combined basis. We moved up in rank in 5 states and 17 MSAs. We held #1 in Nashville, Tennessee and Columbus, Georgia and grew share in Atlanta by almost 50 basis points to strengthen our #4 ranking. Growth, talent, clients, same pattern across all 3. That is the point.

Lastly, integration remains on schedule for operational and brand conversion in March 2027. This quarter, we completed systems migrations across client care mortgage origination, our health savings account business and select capital market capabilities, and we continued expanding the Pinnacle brand through card reissuance and new signage. The work ahead is end-to-end testing and preparing our front line to deliver a seamless day 1.

One thing that is different about this conversion is how we are testing it. AI now supports the full testing life cycle it reviews requirements, draft test cases, builds the automation and repairs the test when screens change with a person approving every step. Across the 838 test scripts completed to date, we estimate AI handled close to 80% of the scripting and cut the time required by roughly 70%. The tools are not perfect, and it still takes our people to code, build, validate and test and deploy them into the production environment, but it's getting faster as we go.

We said from the start that we would protect the client experience through conversion with a time line built for great execution rather than pulling cost synergies forward. Nothing we have seen changes that. We are confident in March, and we will get there the same way we have gotten here quarter after quarter, same pattern.

With that, I'll turn it over to Jamie for more detail on the quarter. Jamie?

Andrew Gregory

Thank you, Kevin. Adjusted diluted EPS increased 8% versus the prior quarter and 19% versus the third quarter of 2025. Profitability is tracking right in line with merger assumptions, with third quarter adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 18.3%. Earning assets grew 3%, or 12% annualized, reflecting growth in both loans and investment securities. Period-end loans increased $1.7 billion or 8% annualized from the second quarter. C&I again accounted for the majority of growth with contributions across our geographic markets and specialty lending platforms. On a year-to-date combined basis, period-end loans increased 8%, or 11% annualized, excluding the purchase accounting loan mark. Total period-end deposits grew $2.1 billion on a linked-quarter basis, with broad-based growth of cost geographies and specialty banking units. Excluding third quarter headwinds from public funds, core deposits were up approximately 3% quarter-on-quarter or 13% annualized. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect core growth along with positive seasonals in both public funds and other commercial deposits to help us deliver a strong end to 2026.

Net interest income was $986 million, an increase of $30 million from the second quarter, as earning asset growth more than offset margin contraction. The net interest income was 3.4%, down 4 basis points from the second quarter. Earning asset yields were up modestly across most categories to some degree, supported by the FOMC's rate hike late in the quarter. Loan yields were up 1 basis point to 6.12% and experienced some marginal headwinds in the quarter, notably from lower loan fees and PAA. Both were at the lower end of the expected quarterly range we modeled for the merger. Our total deposit costs increased 4 basis points. Our cost of interest-bearing deposits increased 5 basis points, and our aggregate effective cost of funds also increased 5 basis points. Rate movements to date should benefit us modestly from here, and we expect the margin to slightly expand in the fourth quarter.

Adjusted noninterest revenue increased $53 million from the second quarter. Performance was aided by a $23 million gain in our leasing business and record production at BHG, which lifted our investment income to $48 million from $24 million in the second quarter. We expect BHG's production momentum to carry into the fourth quarter. These wins should not overshadow what has been a double-digit, year-to-date organic growth in our core fee line items and strong momentum from merger-related revenue synergies. Our adjusted tangible efficiency ratio improved to 48.9%, reflecting both revenue growth and continued expense discipline. We incurred $56 million of nonrecurring merger expenses during the quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to $382 million and tracking right in line with the previous full year guidance of $400 million to $450 million.

Adjusted noninterest expense was $690 million, up 4%. The change was driven by a higher incentive accrual, which is a direct result of our strong performance year-to-date. Headcount was up modestly from the second quarter reflecting growth in both our geographic markets and specialty units, such as treasury management. Credit metrics were stable to improving. Net charge-offs were $50 million or 23 basis points for the quarter, consistent with expectations and within our full year range. The nonperforming asset ratio was flat at 0.5%. Consistent with prior quarters, the ACL ratio ended the third quarter at 1.19%. This includes the impact of current macroeconomic forecast on our models, which had an increased weighting to slower growth scenarios. Higher qualitative reserves and reserve build associated with loan growth also contributed, offset by a reduction in reserves for individually annualized loans.

During the quarter, we completed the sale of our Qualpay investment. The transaction resulted in a pretax gain of $4 million and will have an immaterial impact on go-forward earnings. Capital ratios continued to build in the third quarter, with core earnings generating excess capital beyond that needed to meet our 12% annualized earning asset growth for the quarter. Our preliminary common equity Tier 1 ratio ended the quarter at 10.01%, up 8 basis points from the second quarter. Client-driven growth remains the first use of capital we generate, and we continue to build steadily towards our 10.25% CET1 target.

I'll now hand it back to Kevin for our 2026 financial outlook.

Kevin Blair

Thank you, Jamie. With one quarter left in 2026, our guidance ranges remain unchanged, and our confidence in meeting them remains high. We continue to expect full year loan growth at the top end of our 9% to 11% range. Deposit growth is tracking towards midrange of 8% to 10% or roughly $9 billion for the year, with the fourth quarter seasonal inflows still ahead of us. We expect full year NIM in the 3.44% to 3.46% range, with the fourth quarter in the low to mid-3.40s range that Jamie described earlier.

Combining that NII growth with the strength that we are seeing in core client fees and at BHG, we expect full year adjusted revenue just over the midpoint of our stated range. Within that, we now expect BHG income of $150 million to $160 million for the year, above the $110 million to $120 million range we provided in July. Adjusted noninterest expenses should land just above the middle of our $2.675 billion and $2.775 billion guidance, with the fourth quarter reflecting continued investment in revenue producer hiring and incentive compensation, reflecting our strong forecasted revenue and EPS growth. We continue to expect the adjusted effective tax rate in the middle of the 20% to 21% range and charge-offs within the 20 to 25 basis point range. Taken together, this keeps us on track to ahead of the EPS accretion path we laid out last summer.

We will provide our 2027 outlook in December. As we build that plan, the starting point is strong. A full year of synergies building, a team well prepared for a successful conversion in March and a 2026 recruiting class moving towards [ old ] productivity. As I close, I want to come back to a simple idea: The things that compound are the things you do consistently. We said we would grow, recruit the best bankers, protect credit, price with discipline and never trade our culture for speed. Nine months in, the scoreboard is lining up. Adjusted EPS is up 23% year-to-date. Our Net Promoter Scores are holding at levels that tell us our clients feel the difference, and we are taking deposit market share in the places we compete, one relationship at a time.

Every quarter, we put behind us does 2 things. It adds to the pattern, and it retires risk. The things that go wrong in a merger of this size: losing bankers, losing clients, losing credit discipline, have each had 3 quarters to show up. None of them has. The work is not finished, but the risk that was an open question in January is a smaller question today, and it gets smaller with every quarter that looks like this one. This is a foundation in the quarters that matter most are the ones still ahead of us. We are building towards them with the same intensity that got us here quarter after quarter, same pattern.

And with that, operator, let's transition to the Q&A portion of today's call.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Casey Haire from Autonomous.

分析师问答

Casey Haire

Let's focus on Slide 21, the NIM waterfall chart, specifically the Cat 4 liquidity build. So just does that -- it lays out $3 billion over the next 3 years of debt issuance. Does that 3 to 5 bps -- is that the way to think about it over the next couple of years? And then the other one, the fixed rate asset repricing, how much longer is that to win? And is that also a 2 to 4 bps tailwind each year?

Andrew Gregory

Yes, Casey, on the [ HQLA ], our plans remain the same right now. We obviously pay very close attention to the regulatory environment and everything that's happening there. But we don't have a change in our plan on liquidity. Those remain accurate. If you think about debt issuances as we go through the year, every $1 billion of debt issuance is a couple of basis point impact to cost of funds. We will continue to grow the securities portfolio. If you think about the growth in the securities portfolio, that growth comes at a spread of about 1% between the series you put on the book and wholesale funding that you use to fund them. And so those will be the headwinds. And so yes, that will continue.

The fixed rate asset repricing will continue through '27 and into '28. And what I would say about that is, with the increase in rates, that impact does get bigger. We talk a lot about the PAA of the loan portfolio from the mark on January 1, well, that only increases the impact of fixed rate asset repricing going forward because we marked the book, the loan book at 6.3%. If you look at September loan production, the yield on that was 6.6%. And so basically, what you're seeing there is that asset sensitivity and you should see that play out as you go through the next couple of years as you get the benefit, specifically of the commercial loans that we marked in January, maturing and being replaced with loans at higher yield, assuming the current rate environment sticks.

Casey Haire

Okay. Great. All right. And then just switching to BHG. Dramatic improvement in performance there. I know the originations were up, but is there something on the expense side that has also helped? Just trying to get some color on what is a pretty dramatic step-up in profitability contribution from that business.

Kevin Blair

Look, that business continues to perform, and it's not an expense story. The production was up as a record quarter for production for BHG. You can see the diversity in their funding mix, their partnerships remain strong. So it's really a revenue story and a mix story that led to the record quarter here in the third quarter.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Pancari from Evercore.

John Pancari

Just on the margin, I know you kind of noted the top end of the 26% margin guide down by about 1 bp. I mean, what are you seeing in terms of some of the underlying components of the margin? Was that a bit of the loan yield pressure that you flagged? And then also maybe on the outlook, the deposit and loan pricing, I guess, on the deposit side, what are you seeing in terms of deposit pricing competition? And what's your expected trend in deposit costs and beta as you're looking out? And I guess, similar on the loan pricing side, just given your comments in your prepared remarks.

Andrew Gregory

John, as we look to the fourth quarter, there are a few moving parts, and we mentioned this in the prepared remarks. But in the third quarter, we had a negative impact versus expectations of PAA being a little lower than we expected as well as loan fees being a little lower than expected. We expect both of those to reverse in the fourth quarter, which is a little bit of a tailwind to the margin. And we still have a little bit of benefit to the fourth quarter margin from the Fed hike in September, a little bit of a benefit from fixed rate asset repricing. And there should be a little bit of a benefit from core deposit growth outpacing loan growth.

The offset or a partial offset to that would be that continued HQLA build in the fourth quarter will be a little bit of a headwind. But our base case for the fourth quarter is the margin slightly expands for the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter. When you look beyond that, when you look out into 2027, and we'll give a more thorough update on this in December. But when you look into 2027, we do see the benefit of fixed rate asset repricing, we do expect further rate increases, which should be a little bit of a tailwind in 2027. And then the story will remain the same, that there'll be a little bit of a headwind because of HQLA growth and the tighter margin on some of that incremental growth that's wholesale funded. So that's our outlook for the near term and then for 2027, I mean, probably the net effect of that will be a slight pressure on the margin as you look through 2027.

Kevin Blair

And John, let me hit the part of it that you asked about the frontline and competition. I'm extremely pleased with the pricing discipline that our bankers are exhibiting. When you look at the new loan production this third quarter, it came in about 6.5%, new deposits came in right around 2.7%, so call it, 375 to 380 basis points spread on that new business. That's about 10 basis points wider than what we saw last quarter. And so when you look at loan spreads relative to the index, those were also up 14 basis points. So I don't think it a competition or pricing story, as Jamie talked about all of the puts and takes on the margin.

And I've been somewhat vocal on this. I don't know that competition is the news. I think it's like the weather. It's here today. It's here tomorrow. It's not what the weather is. It's how you compete in that weather. And there are 4,300 banks competing every day for the same clients that we have, and how we compete is not on price. We compete and win market share and grow balances based on trust, based on bankers, and not on the last basis point. So it does make us immune to the pricing pressure, but it means we're not chasing that marginal dollar just based on rate.

John Pancari

Makes sense. And then on the loan growth front, it sounds like you're confident still in the high end of the 9% to 11% for this year. You cited that growth is certainly heavily tied to your hiring and your recruiting efforts, and you're confident -- you sound confident on the hiring front. So I guess, what's that mean for 2027 as you take a look at the pace of growth? I know you're not guiding it until December, but any way to characterize how we can think about this follow-through of this 9% to 11% range as you look at 2027 in the hiring?

Kevin Blair

Yes, without giving you a number, John, I think, as I've said multiple times in the prepared remarks, it's a pattern. And I think you would continue to see that momentum. And it goes back to this quarter and where we saw growth, it was so broad-based, every geography and every specialty unit grew this quarter, not a single one declined. And so it shows you the diversity of our ability to grow across the board. It was led by C&I, and our production was up about 11% year-over-year. And when you look at where we grew this quarter, specialty finance, specialty CRE, financial institutions, all were up about $200 million to $300 million. And on the geography side, to your point, where we saw the greatest growth is where we're seeing the fastest hiring, in the Carolinas, Florida, Georgia.

And so when you look at the broad-based growth, you look at where it's coming from, you look at the 222 hires we've made to date, I would just point to, there's nothing within the current pipelines within our production and with what we expect to happen next year that you should see a change in our ability to grow assets.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America.

Ebrahim Poonawala

I guess, sorry for following up again on the margin. Just when we think about, Jamie, what you said, so some expansion and then we have the HQLA and the wholesale funded part of the loan growth to think about as headwinds. But I think there was a sense coming out of last quarter that the margin about [ 3.40% ] is sort of directionally headed towards something in the 3.30% or sub-3.30% range. And just -- hearing you this morning, it feels like that may be overdoing that a little bit? So just either respond to, when we think about the incremental growth, what's the incremental margin? Is that in the 3.50s net-net when you add the wholesale and the core deposit funded growth? How should we think about that incremental blended growth?

Andrew Gregory

Our story remains the same on the margin on incremental growth. When we think about that, we think about the margin at 3.30% context on the incremental growth. So just to use round numbers for 2027, if you said we grew -- we were going to grow 10%, then that would be -- if you look at it as like -- what are we 10 basis points below, like that would be a 1 basis point headwind to the margin in 2027, just based on the growth. So when I say a slight headwind, that's what I'm referring to. So you'd have 1 basis point headwind on the growth, but then you would add on top of that the impact of the debt issuances and growing the securities portfolio in cash.

And so that when I speak to pressure on the margin that's the general context. It's not a scenario where we expect to go down to 3.30% in immediately in 2027. It's more that, well, that incremental growth comes in a little bit tighter than where we are today. So there will be slight pressure on the margin because of it.

Ebrahim Poonawala

That's helpful. And I guess, maybe, Kevin, back to your comments, so strong results every quarter that goes by. You're sort of at least disproving the risk of this deal not playing itself out. I think the one concern I hear from investors is, if you think about some of the legacy clinical leadership leaving the company maybe towards the end of next year and the risk of the more tenured bankers leaving, you could see this stumble a little bit, maybe 12 to 18 months from now. I'm assuming you don't agree with that characterization, but just give us a framework of why that's the right way to think about it. That would be helpful.

Kevin Blair

Well, look, I think that somebody trying to fear-monger Ebrahim, quite frankly. It's [ Rob McCabe ], who's our Chief Banking Officer, has agreed to stay on for another year as Chief Banking Officer. We announced that earlier this year. But he's also going to stay on as an adviser to me for 2 years, post that arrangement. So the people that are running the Pinnacle model aren't going anywhere. And yes, there'll be some retirements. There will be people that are leaving the firm, and they've earned that because they've been here a while.

But as you saw this morning, we've added 222 revenue producers. And I would point to that as the best case because people are going to come and go. We have 95% retention of our revenue producers, which is below what we've done in previous years. We brought in those 222 bankers. And let me give you a little context on that. They've come from over 100 financial institutions. And when you look at the top 10 sources of those 222, those 10 banks comprise about 45% of our hires. And when I look at those 10 banks, I'm not going to name them, those are some of the largest banks in our footprint, and they carry significant share. And so those bankers, their best bankers are choosing to join us, and they're bringing their clients with them.

And so I would submit to you that going forward, if people retire, that's okay. And our leadership is that may retire have great succession plans in place, and there's nothing that's going to change what drives growth in this model. I think if there's one thing you can see the consistency and growth at Pinnacle for 26 years as people are coming on. So we have built a foundation, and we are running a model that's producing growth this year and will produce growth next year. The people that talk about that, whether it's investors or competitors, they're just trying to look for an angle because they said they would take [indiscernible] from us to this point. They haven't. So now they're trying to look for another inflection point to be able to put your attention to that.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Jared Shaw from Barclays.

Jared David Shaw

Maybe just shifting over to the fee income side. You talked about having some success with synergies so far. How should we think about the longer-term ability for fees to grow sort of after the conversion? And do you think that some of those synergy opportunities will accelerate after that? Or are you starting to see that full benefit now?

Kevin Blair

Jared, you're right, and Jamie said this in the prepared remarks, when you look at core banking fees, they're up about 10% year-over-year. You look at wealth, it's up 11% today, driven by both brokerage and trust. Capital markets are up 23%. And there are some big numbers in there. Lead arranger fees are up 50%, derivatives up 26%, big, big numbers. So when I think about fee income over a longer period of time is very similar to how I think about loan growth. We focus on that double-digit loan growth because as these bankers join, they're bringing their loans with them, they're bringing deposits with them, but those all create new fee opportunities, whether that's operating accounts through our treasury area, whether it's new wealth relationships. So I'd like to think that we could continue to grow those core fee income lines by high single-digit, double-digit numbers.

As it relates to revenue synergies, we're at about $20 million year-to-date. And I think that's largely on track with where we thought we would be. Most of those synergies have come out of capital markets, whether it's an expanded syndication platform, whether it's derivatives, whether it's our FX and our government guaranteed lending area. So still scratching the surface with $20 million. As you know, we committed to over $100 million in revenue synergies, and so to your point, that will ramp up when we get to the other side of conversion in March of next year because the full company will be on one platform as it relates to treasury. And ultimately, there will be greater synergies in some of the other line items that we talked about.

Jared David Shaw

Okay. And then on BHG, obviously, a strong quarter of origination. As we look at a potentially higher or likely higher rate environment, what's the expectation around the credit impact from that at BHG. I know that there's been, if you look back over the past few years, sort of refocus on the underwriting? Should we expect that charge-offs stay in the similar range going forward?

Andrew Gregory

First off, you can see the trend where chart offs and delinquencies declining over a long period of time. And so the performance there has been strong. We look at origination standards, looking at credit scores, looking at the quality of the borrowers, and they remain strong as well. BHG made a strategic pivot of 2 quarters ago where they realize that if they were not as aggressive on price, they ran the risk of being adversely selected on credit. And so they adjusted their pricing accordingly because they chose a little bit of a tighter spread. So that they wouldn't be sacrificing at all in credit. And we firmly support that strategy, and you're seeing that play through.

So I mean it is a consumer product, so I don't think they're immune from anything, from the world, if the world changes out there for the consumer, but the quality of their borrowers is strong. Their performance has been strong, and we're not seeing anything that would change that.

Operator

Your next question is coming from John McDonald from Truist.

John McDonald

Maybe just one more on BHG guys. Can you talk a little bit more about what's driving that increased production? Is it good macro or some increased marketing or awareness of the product? And then longer term, how you're thinking about your relationship with the company? We saw another large SaaS East Bank announced some consumer exits this quarter. Just a reminder of how you look at your optionality around this business would be helpful.

Andrew Gregory

Yes, John. As I mentioned just a minute ago, the pricing is driving some of the volume. They have a pipeline through various third parties that help source deals for them. And so they are very strategic and thoughtful in how they source deals, and that's what's driven their success, is their model. And so it's been very strong. You can see that in the sustained high level of originations.

With regards to their strategic optionality, quarters like this only make them more attractive to everybody. It makes them more attractive to us. It makes them more attractive to potential buyers. It's a positive all around. And so, for us, the partnership is very strong. We are very supportive of the leadership team over there, and we just want to see this continue and for them to continue making the right decisions. And by that, it's decisions that sometimes reduce near-term earnings, why the decision change, how they distribute their loans that they did here in 2027. It's also when they make a decision to accept a tighter spread in order to improve the credit performance. All of these things are making the right long-term decision even if it may reduce upfront earnings. And I think that, that just makes it a more attractive franchise for everybody.

From our perspective, we enjoy being owners of BHG, and we will be supportive of whatever path they choose, but they own the majority of the company, and so we ride alongside with them.

John McDonald

And then just a follow-up, maybe a modeling question on reserve build. The Street was underestimating the provision a bit this quarter. Just on the reserve build piece, credit obviously looks good. Can you speak to how we should think about your current reserve ratios and how you'll think about adding for growth going forward? .

Andrew Gregory

Yes. I mean if you look at the reserve build this quarter, it's all the economy, and it's all because of growth. And so the loan portfolio continues to deliver. We continue to have strong performance on the quality of our loan book. So what you should expect to see from us from here is, assuming the economic outlook doesn't change, you should expect us to be funding at a similar rate for growth. But I just -- I would point out that 45% of our weighting of scenarios is to below consensus scenarios. And so, we remain optimistic that the outlook improves, and we get to a spot where consensus is consensus where that's the baseline. You have an equal weight of scenarios above and below the consensus, but we're not there today. And so hopefully, that day comes, and when that day comes, the allowance to loan ratio should decline.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Bernard Von Gizycki from Deutsche Bank.

Bernard Von Gizycki

My first question, just on commercial real estate. It grew nicely, the $485 million during the quarter. Just thoughts on how it should trend? What you're hearing from clients on demand? And just at what rate levels would potentially impact loan demand?

Kevin Blair

Well, look, this quarter, most of our CRE was our specialty CRE area. So I would submit to you that we're coming off very low levels of production, to your point, based on where interest rates are. I would assume, in this environment, with rates being a little higher, that you're going to still see some pressure on production. We had some construction loans on multifamily that are starting to fund up and those were obviously originated in the past. But I don't see the current environment as being overly constructive to see a ramp-up in CRE production. I actually think that with some real estate developers this past week, and they're finding it harder and harder to find deals that pencil. And so I think there are a lot of people that are sitting around, even on the multifamily side, watching the absorption of the new deliveries. And so I think it's going to be a tough market for growth, and we're not expecting a lot of growth in CRE. We're expecting more of it to continue to come in on the C&I front.

Bernard Von Gizycki

Okay. And just as a follow-up. I think on Slide 14, you show the normalized deposit growth, which shows trends stronger than prior years. Just can you talk us the ability to fund the strong loan growth with core deposits? And just expectations on deposit beta for maybe the first hike and through the cycle? .

Andrew Gregory

Yes. As you look at the third quarter, we grew core deposits, excluding public funds, $2.6 billion, as it says on the slide. That is strong growth, and that is basically what we are expecting in the fourth quarter before you take into account the seasonal tailwind of the fourth quarter. And so that's what leads to our deposit guide. That's what it leads to getting to the midpoint of that range, is if you repeat what we did in the third quarter on core deposits, then you get a seasonal benefit, and the seasonal benefit comes from both public funds as well as commercial clients that typically fund up at the end of the year, and then there'll be some broker deposit growth on top of that. And that's what solves for the midpoint of the guide.

When you think about the deposit beta of the first hike, the way I contextualize it is that right before the Fed hike in September, our total deposit cost was [ $217 million ]. You can kind of get close to that with our monthly numbers. We are expecting to end the year in the [ 2.30% ] area. And so you think about that as an approximate 13 basis point increase in the fourth quarter due to the Fed not assuming any further rate hikes. And that's what gets you to that kind of 50 area or low 50s beta on the first hike. And that's what we're expecting the first hike, and that's what we were expecting for further hikes. And in that, there still is a little bit of asset sensitivity to the front end.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ryan Kenny from Morgan Stanley.

Ryan Kenny

So first on buyback on pass-through 2026. You are delivering strong capital generation. OCI seems like less of an issue for you guys. So just wondering how the Board is thinking about the timing of when to restart the buyback authorization? And is there a scenario where that happens in 2027?

Kevin Blair

Our priority right now is getting to that 10.25% CET1, and we accreted 8 basis points of capital in the third quarter. We think we will continue accreting capital towards our target here over the next couple of quarters. And so that's our priority. And when we get to our target area, then we will determine what is right strategy. Our number one priority remains client growth. That's where capital and liquidity is deployed first and foremost. But if we do believe we have excess capital, that's when share repurchase will come into play.

Ryan Kenny

Got it. And then another one on the HQLA and debt build. Just want to clarify, you mentioned that you are looking at regulatory changes. So if the Fed raises the threshold for Category 4, understand that you're still growing and you're progressing towards whatever the new threshold will be, but could a change maybe give you more time on the liquidity to build? And any thoughts on what the current pace and level of build is and maybe how that might change?

Andrew Gregory

Yes. It could change the timing. Right now, our plan is for the liquidity build to remain as we described. As you'll recall, in May, we issued $750 million of debt. which put us ahead of schedule. And so now we're here in the fourth quarter considering further debt issuances in line with our $1 billion of debt issuance per year for the first 3 years of this deal. The regulatory changes could delay, but it has not changed our near-term plans. We just continue to audit, continue to build cash and securities to assets. That's our priority here in the near term. But you're right to think that over the longer term, it could change the strategy, but I don't see it changing in the near term.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Michael Rose from Raymond James.

Michael Rose

Good to see the hiring continue. Just as we move forward, are there any areas or geographies that you're maybe a little bit more focused on as you look to meet or exceed the numbers here in the next couple of quarters.

Kevin Blair

Michael, I would submit to you that we don't think about it that way where we go into a geography and say, let's fill it. We actually start with the leaders, and we try to find leaders that want to join the firm and bring teams of individuals with them. So we have a lot of opportunity to add density in the 60 MSAs that we serve today. And we're constantly recruiting, as we've talked about in the past. And so we're trying to bring over the best talent. And we have the ability and the capacity to bring them in, in most of those markets.

Even in Nashville, Tennessee, where we control #1 market share, we're still adding revenue producers. And so I would not say that we're targeting any area; we're targeting the best talent across our entire footprint. And the pipelines, as we talked about, are very robust. And so that's why we said in the prepared remarks, we would expect to come in above the 250 that we had originally targeted for this year.

Michael Rose

Helpful color. Maybe just one follow-up. I know it's a little ticky tacky, but it looks like credit side take a little higher. Just as we think about the prospect of higher rates, any areas that you're maybe a little bit more critical on or maybe from a loan growth perspective, maybe a little bit more cautious on?

Andrew Gregory

Michael, look, on the rate credit scenario, obviously, higher rates could drive valuation declines on the CRE side. So we'll watch that. But the question about what keeps me up at night on credit, I would say, not a lot. And we've tried really hard to look into that. Charge-offs were 23 basis points, as we said, net the NPAs were flat for the quarter. As Jamie talked about, the reserve really ticked up mainly because of a higher weighting towards a slow growth scenario. And so the things we look for are the same areas where the industry has seen some degradation, whether that's NDFI, leveraged loans, franchise lending, and we dug in there. And we've been through those books. We continue to use things like our cash flow monitoring tool proactively, and we feel good about all of them and the portfolio as a whole.

So I would tell you that we're always trying to assess where the next issue is. We're not seeing it in our book. From a production standpoint, we are not altering any of our credit policies to change. Where we're doing business, we look at what's coming on the books, and it is very high credit quality business. And so we'll keep monitoring it and keep answering the questions. But I think on this question, it would be hard for me to not answer it without talking a little bit about our model. As you know, we hire bankers differently. You asked that question. And that means client selection is different. When we bring these bankers over, they're generally bringing clients that they've done business with for many years through cycles. And so our model holds up well relative to our competition. And I think it will continue to do that in this environment or if rates were to go higher or if we were to see some sort of credit downturn.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Timur Braziler from UBS.

Timur Braziler

Maybe starting on the balance sheet. I guess I was a little bit surprised by the level of cash and FHLBs that remained on the balance sheet in 3Q, given maybe some of the commentary following the second quarter. Just help us frame kind of thoughts around wholesale funding into 4Q and to a period that's going to be seasonally better on the deposit front.

Andrew Gregory

Yes, Timur, when you look at cash, it has run a little higher than what we said in July, averaging around $5 billion, and that's something that we actually expect to continue here in the fourth quarter. So you should expect to see that continue. And so I would expect to see that level, not necessarily what you've seen at some of the quarter ends, but around $5 billion in cash for the rest of this year.

When you think about wholesale funding, I'd just back to what we said earlier about deposit growth in the fourth quarter. Our objective of achieving the midpoint of our guide on deposits and doing that would lead to deposit growth outpacing loan growth. And so that gives us flexibility on the marginal funding when you have that funding coming in through core deposit growth plus some broker growth. And so that's our general expectation. We do expect to see have some broker growth this quarter. and we'll see how it all plays out from there.

Timur Braziler

Great. And then one more on BHG, if I can. So the mix in the revenue base, I think, is impressive here given that loan sales and transactions, through the bank, we're actually down quite a bit. I'm just wondering with more of the revenue coming from, I guess, the on-balance sheet loans, the sustainability of this run rate and the volatility going forward. Maybe talk to both of those components.

Andrew Gregory

Yes. We're expecting this investment income to continue into the fourth quarter at a similar level. We believe that their production and their distribution in the fourth quarter will be similar to what you saw in the third quarter. And so we expect that profitability to remain. I don't have really official outlook for 2027 at this point, but we do expect to see it continue into the fourth quarter.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Chris McGratty from KBW.

Christopher McGratty

How important on a capital discussion is the tangible common equity ratio for you all, given the moving rates and obviously what you're doing with the debt issuance?

Andrew Gregory

We pay attention to it because other people pay attention to it, but it's not a key priority for us. What I would point to is the CET1 ratio, including AOCI, as a more important metric for us as we prepare for the B3 Fed proposal to go through. And so we spend a lot more time looking at that, and we think that's a lot more relevant and more impactful ratio. And so we manage based on that ratio more than TCE.

Christopher McGratty

Okay. Great. And then on the credit, the 20 to 25 basis points for the year, I hear you on the reserve and the conservative weighting. If we think and step back on just the 2 companies that have come together, how should we, over a normal, I guess, normal is a tough challenge, but normalized charge-offs for the combined company, is the question.

Kevin Blair

I don't know what normal is, Chris. But I'd say this 20 to 25 is a good level for us for the foreseeable future. It feels like we're in a benign credit environment. Obviously, getting to a normalized level would mean that you'd go through some cycle. We haven't been in a recession in quite some time. So I don't want to proper a guess on what that would be. But I think this 20 to 25 is a range that you could see us operating in for the foreseeable future.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Anthony Elian from JPMorgan.

Anthony Elian

On capital, Jamie, could you put a finer point on when you expect to achieve the target of 10.25%? If I look, your CET1 increased about 10 basis points in each of the past 2 quarters, but you are still expecting really strong loan growth going forward.

Andrew Gregory

Look, I think the third quarter and the second quarter capital accretion are good numbers to use when looking forward. And so if it's 8 basis points this quarter or 10 before that, I think that, that makes a lot of sense. And so you could look at that and run it forward and project getting to a 10.25% in a few quarters, I think that's very reasonable.

Anthony Elian

And then on the hires, so you brought on 96 revenue producers in 3Q. October is running strong, and you upped the range, you expect this year to 250 plus, but you left the '27 range unchanged at 250 to 275. I'm curious why that range for next year is left unchanged. And if you could just talk about what you're seeing in the hiring pipeline as we enter 2027?

Kevin Blair

I think, Anthony, it's more about we're just not providing '27 updates at this, and you'll get an updated number, as Jamie said, in December for both the financials as well as the hiring plan. But don't read into that, that we think the pipeline has dried up, so that we wouldn't expect to see this momentum continue.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Christopher Marinac from Brean Capital.

Christopher Marinac

I want to go back to the deposit growth and kind of cost of deposits. And I'm curious, Jamie or Kevin, kind of how often are you seeing exception request on deposits? Could the growth and the pricing more a function of just the sheer movement from new producers?

Kevin Blair

A couple of things there. Chris. What's interesting, I was going back and looking at the people that have joined the firm in the last year and taking that segment of new commercial FAs and looking at what they're bringing to the firm, we get the question all the time about are those people paying for themselves, the competition is great. And yes, we've seen a little bit of a tick up in just the cost of bringing on new talent. But what was interesting is when I looked at that cohort, we've actually had those bankers in the first year, bring in more deposits than they brought in loans, which shows me that we're getting a good cross-section of bankers that are not just focusing on generating loans, but they're bringing over deposits.

I give you that because that's the story behind our deposit growth. We're seeing growth across the geographies, we're seeing growth across all of our specialty areas. We do have some specialty deposit areas. And so if I look just this past quarter, new deposit came on production rate at [ 2.70% ]. That's actually 5 basis points below where it was a year ago and fairly flat with where we've been this year. So we're not having to go out, as I said earlier, and compete on every basis point for price. We do have to be market-based. And to your point, on exceptions, A lot of our deposits on the commercial side are indexed. So we don't have to provide exceptions. Those are actually adjusting with the underlying index. And we'll do exceptions when we have to, and the exceptions are based on the full relationship value. But what we're not doing is overly relying on a bunch of promotional rates in order to generate hot money deposits. We are trying to focus on bringing over those core relationships and pricing them appropriately so that rate never becomes an issue.

Christopher Marinac

Great, Kevin. And then Jamie, just a quick one on the PAA in the quarter. Is there any reason that was slow? Was it just timing based? I know you said it was going to catch up in Q4.

Andrew Gregory

In the third quarter, we did have a fairly unique situation where we have 1 loan payoff that was priced at a premium. And so that was a $2 million headwind to PAA in the third quarter, which is fairly impactful to the quarter. Outside of that, it was just simply slower prepayments.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Najarian from Hovde Group.

Edward Najarian

Just another quick question on the new hires. It looks like you'll be, I don't know, maybe even close to 300 this year. Is there a way to think about, do those new hire in '26, are you confident that they're profitable by 2027? Or is there a way to think about the new hires from last year, how profitable they are this year? I'm trying to get a sense of if you can give us any kind of sense of the pipeline of profitability that's sort of not in earnings right now that comes from the new hires that are sort of brought on this year, but obviously, will become much more profitable or maybe breakeven, I don't know, but much more profitable than they were when they initially came on this year.

Is there a way to give us a sense of sort of the timing of new higher profitability as we go through this new hire process year after year after year to get a thought of sort of how much sits in the pipeline yet to be delivered? Is there a way to frame that?

Kevin Blair

Well, look, I think what you've seen in the past is in one of the slides that we've shown in Pinnacle is showing what the embedded growth is on the balance sheet of individuals who have not fully consolidated their entire books. And what we said is that somewhere around $20 billion of future loan growth. And I would submit to you that there's a commensurate level of deposit growth that's embedded there as well. I'm glad you brought this question because I ask our team, given where we are right now and exceeding our expectations to go back and let's just back test.

Let's look at how well these new hires are performing. And so that cohort that I talked about, those folks that have been here less than 1 year, who have slightly more deposits than they have loans, their overall cash compensation is up a little bit over previous years, but their performance is actually exceeding out of previous years and overriding the increased cost, so much so that cohort today has a cash compensation coverage ratio of about 88%. And what that means is their contribution to the firm is being -- is covering about 88% of their cash compensation within the first year. Now if you look at the cohort that's a year to 3 years, they're 2 to 3x covering their cash compensation. And so our current analysis would suggest that these individuals are of the highest quality, and they're largely almost breaking even in year 1. And then within year 1 to 3, they would be at 2 to 3x their cash compensation.

So that's why you've seen our further around putting the pedal to the metal with some of these hires because not only are we successful in the numbers, we are successful in generating business from these hires.

Edward Najarian

No, those numbers are very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question is coming from David Chiaverini from Jefferies.

David Chiaverini

So my question is on the noninterest-bearing deposit mix. It's been holding in very nicely at about 20%. How should we think about this level going forward with the rate backdrop?

Andrew Gregory

The rate back track does make maintaining that level more challenging, but we do expect to see relative stability with slight pressure on that ratio as we go through next year. And so you're right to think that higher rates make it harder, more difficult to grow noninterest-bearing deposits. And so we think that there will be a little bit of pressure on the growth rate but not a material shift in that percentage.

David Chiaverini

And then on the loan side, you made some comments on higher rates and CRE being impacted. Any thoughts on -- have you seen or observed any changes in loan demand on the C&I side from higher rates, at least thus far?

Kevin Blair

No, I don't think that we've seen a decline in the pipeline there. My comment on rates on the real estate side is obviously it affects cap rates and it impacts valuations, which obviously, we're keen to. We do a survey every quarter with our commercial clients. And what I would submit to you, this quarter, our clients are extremely resilient. I would say they're working harder for the same result. And what I mean by that is when you ask our clients today, "What percentage of our client base?", and it's about 400 folks that responded. So I consider it a representative sample. About 38% said that they expect to do more business over the next 12 months, and about 40% said that they expected the same level of business over the next 12 months. Ironically, only 15% would expect their business to decline.

Now that is up versus 11% last quarter. But I would say overall, it's still positive by a tone of 2:1 on growth versus contraction with a slight lean towards caution. So I would tell you that I don't think that it's translating into pipelines. I think our clients are cautious. Their number one concern is margin contraction. Over 50% of our clients expect the cost of the materials and wages to continue to increase, while only about 1/4 believe that they can pass those on to their clients. So it shows you the issue is not demand. The issue is margin contraction. And so we'll have to watch that when we underwrite credits, but that doesn't tell us that we would expect to see a drop-off in demand in the near term.

Operator

Our next question is coming from Janet Lee from TD Cowen.

Sun Young Lee

A lot of the questions have been asked. So just following up on the Cat 4 liquidity build, you said you're not contemplating it near term, but you would may revisit the plan of the asset threshold or the regulatory thresholds get lifted ultimately. How far would the threshold would need to move for you to meaningfully rethink your roughly $1 billion annual build pace is $50 billion, meaningful enough or not?

Andrew Gregory

It's a great question because when you're growing the low double digits each year, we will crest [ 150 ] in the near term. And so that's partially why when you look at what we're doing on the data side, we're not slowing down, and we're continuing to execute there because we just believe that regardless of where it moves, we are likely to be subject to it in the relative near term. And so that's why we just keep watching what the environment has out there, but we're just marching along on our existing plan, making sure that we're making progress in the near term.

But you're right, if it moves $50 billion and we crossed that in a couple of years, it's not a tremendous difference to us as far as the timing of any of the needs, of capital planning, of liquidity, of data, all of the above.

Sun Young Lee

Okay. Fair. So obviously, very strong deposit growth on the core side. One of the key questions or -- not concerned, but key questions from investors is your ability to hit the $4.5 billion-ish of deposit growth in the fourth quarter, which you have been in the past. And in that fourth quarter,guide for deposits, does that contemplate some amount of broker deposits? Or are they all just core deposits plus the public funds that are coming back into the balance sheet? Like how should we think about the puts and takes in terms of your expectations for deposit growth? You're holding the line on deposit costs in the 2.30% for the $4.5 billion of deposit growth looks pretty good. So just on the dynamics there on the deposit front.

Andrew Gregory

Yes. We are expecting to grow broker deposits in the fourth quarter. I mean when we look at the full year broker deposit growth, we're expecting broker deposits to grow in line with core deposits. And so that growth is embedded in achieving the midpoint of that deposit guide. So you're right. It's -- you look at the core deposit growth, which is core business repeating what we did this quarter, then you get seasonal on top of that, that could be $1 billion or $1.5 billion, and then on top of that, you have broker deposit growth. And so that's generally how we're thinking about it.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Kevin Blair for any closing remarks.

Kevin Blair

Thank you, Matthew. You heard me say several times today, same pattern. 3 quarters in our first year as a combined company, we are hitting the milestones we set for ourselves. I would say we are a scrappy company. We find ways to generate growth and drive results, and we don't need a perfect environment to do it. There will always be someone looking for the negative each quarter, but the simple answer is we're winning. We are winning the same way every quarter.

And I think the number supported: adjusted EPS up 23%, voluntary turnover, 6%, and revenue producer hiring is accelerating, up 57% versus the same quarter last year. Conventional wisdom says that merger costs you momentum. We are gaining it. And our clients continue to have their expectations met and exceeded. Our Net Promoter Scores tell the story up 2 basis points -- or up 2 points this first quarter and #1 in our footprint against our peers, and their money tells the same story. Fewer clients are leaving us in the middle of this merger than were leaving a year ago. Growth, talent, clients, 1 quarter is a result, 3 in a row forms a pattern.

So we're happy with where we stand, but we are just getting started. We will finish the fourth quarter strong. We will spend the next 144 days, making sure that the system and brand conversion in March is seamless for our clients. and we will deliver on the 2027 earnings and profitability numbers we commit to the day we announced this deal because those numbers are how we prove the power of this unified firm. Each of those adds another quarter to the pattern and retires another risk. Even that is just setting the stage. The bigger picture is that this firm has long proven its differentiation and this merger is amplifying it at scale neither company could reach a loan. The model wins when rates rise and when rates fall. It wins against the largest banks in the country and the best local banks in our markets. It works better with AI as it is enabling the same 2 things we've always been focused on: a better place to work and a better client experience. New tools, same model, same competitive advantage, that is scale with the soul. And most importantly, none of it happens without our 6,800 -- 8,600 team members who advance the ball every day. To each of you, thank you.

For our investors, thank you for listening in today and for your continued interest. I look forward to seeing many of you in the weeks ahead and being back here in January with the fourth quarter adding to our pattern. Nine months ago, this combination was a question. Today, it's a pattern. In March, 1 brand, 1 system makes it [indiscernible]. And in 2027, it becomes proof. With that, Matthew, we will conclude today's call.

Operator

Thank you for joining us today. That concludes the Pinnacle Financial Partners Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Have a good day.