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中东冲突加剧,特朗普“不惜一切代价言论”点燃恐慌情绪,美股三大期指均跌超1.5%

TradingKey2026年3月3日 13:52
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TradingKey - 3月3日,美东时间上午8:50,美股盘前美股期货全线走弱,而大宗商品市场则呈现显著分化走势,原油继续走高、贵金属短线承压。中东冲突持续加剧,特朗普宣称“不惜一切代价”对伊朗打击,再次加重了市场的恐慌情绪。

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随着最新地缘政治消息面推动油价期货飙升至约76美元,投资者情绪明显由对冲风险快速转向对经济基本面的再评估,风险资产明显承压,科技权重股期货跌幅扩大,纳斯达克100期货跌超2%,标普500与道指期货指数均跌超1.5%。

盘面上看,原油价格高位拉升反映出市场对供应风险的重新定价。中东局势持续紧张,霍尔木兹海峡运输风险被快速计入市场预期,投资者对原油供应中断的担忧推动能源类资产的风险溢价大幅上行。

与原油的基本面驱动相比,贵金属的走势则更显情绪化与短期敏感性。

尽管黄金与白银曾因避险情绪升温而录得阶段性上涨,但3月3日盘前数据显示两者均出现回落,黄金回落至约5180美元,白银则更大幅走弱至约82.9美元。

贵金属的短线回落显示出市场对避险资产的需求在初期释放之后有所消退,加之美元持续单边走强,更使得贵金属资产承压下行。

目前市场对贵金属的重新评估反映出两个核心分歧。一方面是地缘风险带来的系统性风险溢价仍然存在,风险事件的初期阶段往往会推动黄金和白银等避险资产短线走高,但这种升势如果没有进一步的基本面事件支撑往往难以持续。

另一方面,全球宏观背景下的利率路径预期变化也对贵金属形成压力,若冲突引发的通胀预期上行伴随央行维持较高利率,实际利率可能并不会显著下降甚至上升,从而抑制贵金属的趋势性上涨。

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