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金价冲破5400后回落近150美元 摩根大通:中东冲突或推动金价短期再涨5%-10%

FX1682026年3月2日 17:51
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FX168财经报社(北美)讯 周一(3月2日),COMEX黄金期货在盘中一度飙升至5400美元/盎司高位后回吐部分涨幅。随着中东冲突范围扩大,投资者转向避险资产,推动金价上行。

日内稍早,现货黄金一度触及5419.36美元/盎司高点,但随后迅速自高位大跌近150美元至5260.44美元/盎司低点。

(来源:FX168)

与此同时,贵金属板块其他品种周一普遍回调:白银期货下跌3%,但年初至今仍上涨17%。钯金与铂金也在美元走强背景下回落,不过两者年内仍录得正收益。

摩根大通分析师预计,在美国与以色列周末对伊朗发动打击、并引发地区反击之后,黄金价格短期内可能出现超过5%至10%的“风险溢价”跳升。#伊朗危机追踪#

不过,分析师指出,这类由地缘政治推动的价格飙升“可能非常迅猛,但很难持续”。

他们表示,如果冲突缓和,或美股下跌促使投资者为弥补亏损、筹集现金而抛售资产,黄金涨势可能逆转。周一美国股市开盘走低。

尽管短期波动风险仍在,摩根大通仍预测,来自各国央行与投资者的需求最终将把金价推升至2026年末6300美元。

摩根大通的Patrick Jones写道:“地缘政治风险溢价在短期的抬升,显然与我们对黄金的看多观点一致,但这远不是我们结构性看多黄金的唯一原因。”

他补充称,若冲突持续,可能会进一步凸显推动金价的长期因素,例如财政赤字上升,以及在油价维持高位的情况下,宏观经济背景恶化的风险。

周一金价大致较1月创下的历史高点低约200美元;在此前连续第八个月收涨后,黄金年初至今涨幅已扩大至21%。金价走强的背景包括:央行持续买入、利率下行以及美元走弱带来的需求提升。

布鲁金斯学会(Brookings Institution)高级研究员Robin Brooks在周末写道:“除少数明显例外外,2026年看起来像是‘加速版’的2025年。”

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