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银行业巨头高盛发出警告:美国经济最大威胁竟是它

FX1682026年2月26日 03:24
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 知名财经网站Finbold周三(2月25日)报道称,美国银行业巨头高盛(Goldman Sachs)在持续不确定性的背景下,指出美国经济正面临新的风险。

(截图来源:Finbold)

在此背景下,高盛将潜在的股市回调视为近期最重大的威胁,并警告称,假如股市出现大幅下挫,可能会在实质上拖累2026年的经济增长。

高盛美国经济学家Pierfrancesco Mei预计,2026年第四季度美国经济同比增长2.5%。这一前景基于财政支持、货币环境趋于宽松以及关税压力减轻等多重因素。不过,该预测的前提是金融市场保持相对稳定。

根据该行的分析,如果今年上半年股市下跌10%,可能会使国内生产总值(GDP)减少约0.5个百分点,将经济增速拉低至约2.0%。若跌幅扩大至20%,影响将更加显著,可能在基准预测的基础上削减接近1个百分点的增长。

Mei表示:“我们的分析表明,股市大幅回调是近期最主要的风险。”

风险的主要来源是所谓的财富效应。当资产价格上涨时,持有大量股票和房地产的家庭往往会感到财务安全感增强,从而增加支出,即使收入增长并不显著。

近年来,这种趋势主要惠及了高收入的美国人,他们持有大部分股票,并获得了可观的投资组合收益。

标普500等基准指数的涨势尤为强劲,过去三年累计收益可观。

股价飙升

包括英伟达(Nvidia)在内的多只科技股在同期录得更为显著的涨幅。这些涨势有助于支撑消费者支出,而消费支出约占美国经济活动的三分之二。

一旦股价出现反转,经济增长可能迅速走弱。由于收入最高的10%人群贡献了将近一半的消费支出,投资组合缩水可能抑制其开支,尤其是在“K型”经济格局下,低收入家庭本就承受压力更大。

股市回调很可能会削弱支撑扩张的消费能力,从而进一步拉大这些分化。

尽管高盛不认为会有某一个单一因素触发衰退,但其警告称,若出现剧烈抛售,再叠加人工智能驱动的岗位替代以及生产率疲弱,可能带来更广泛的风险,并可能促使美联储降息。

即便只是温和回调,也可能削弱市场信心,并在2026年下半年放缓支出,使近期的利好因素转而成为拖累。

与此同时,Finbold报道称,其他华尔街策略师预计市场将在年末创下历史新高。分析师预测,标普500指数年底可能收于7,500点。

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