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“大空头”迈克尔·伯里重量级发声!揭示最新一轮市场暴跌背后原因

FX1682026年2月10日 05:31
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 今年2月份的第一周,金融市场遭受重创,损失惨重。2026年2月9日,以“大空头”闻名的投资者迈克尔·伯里(Michael Burry)在社交媒体平台X上发表了一段评论,阐述了他对此次抛售潮背后原因的看法。

(截图来源:Finbold)

这位知名交易员在X帖文中指出,市场之所以“动荡不安”,是因为“历史性的估值过高、历史性的资本支出以及微不足道的‘人工智能’收入”。值得注意的是,这条推文是对前彭博社专栏作家、现任《巴伦周刊》高级科技记者Tae Kim的回应。

具体而言,迈克尔·伯里显然并不认同Kim的判断。Kim曾估计称,近期金融市场的下跌是由围绕Anthropic的法律主题人工智能(AI)插件的一套“完全错误的叙事”所推动的。

(截图来源:X)

为什么Anthropic的AI并非2月市场下跌的幕后原因

确实,Kim提到Anthropic的插件在很大程度上被媒体误读,从而引发法律科技和出版类公司股价下挫——其中最为明显的或许是Relx PLC,该股当周暴跌 18%——这一观点对于特定行业而言是有参考价值的。但伯里的反驳所指向的,是一个横跨多个行业的更广泛趋势。

2 月的第一周,同样也让多家“美股七巨头”科技公司的股价出现大幅下跌,其中微软(Microsoft)和亚马逊(Amazon)跌幅居前。

(微软与亚马逊股票近一个月价格走势图 来源:Finbold)

为什么微软股价在2月大跌

聚焦微软来看,其股价从1月28日到2月9日累计下跌16.71%,导火索是公司最新发布的财报。

尽管该报告披露了多项强劲数据,包括营收与每股收益(EPS)均超出预期,但它也呼应了迈克尔·伯里关于“历史性高估值”和“微不足道的‘AI’营收”的观点。

财报显示,微软的增长正在放缓,公司的利润率也降至多年低位。与此同时,报告还显示微软在很大程度上依赖OpenAI的庞大积压订单。而OpenAI的“微不足道的‘AI’营收”——估计约为200亿美元——与其资本开支承诺相比,仍然小得多,差了不止一个数量级。

为什么亚马逊股价在2月大跌

亚马逊股价自2月2日以来累计下跌13.43%,从242.96美元跌至2月9日的210.32美元,其走势在很大程度上与微软近期的情况如出一辙。

这家电商与科技巨头公布的业绩几乎全面向好,唯一的“例外”是每股收益略低于预期;但与此同时,公司也透露,其关键业务板块(如AWS)仍持续依赖由AI驱动的增长。

数据中心——AWS的关键基础设施——一直是大型科技公司巨额资本开支预期中的“重头戏”,同时也引发了不少争议。

一方面,数据中心的建设以及日益增长的用电需求,给电网带来了巨大压力,同时也加剧了对水资源短缺的担忧,引发了大规模的社区反对。自2025年末以来,这股反弹浪潮已导致多个项目被取消。

另一方面,一些观察人士——例如知名的“看空AI”人士埃德·齐特隆(Ed Zitron)——估计,硬件产能、电力供给与实际需求之间的不匹配,可能会导致多达25%的数据中心处于闲置状态。

为什么用于AI的“历史性资本开支”可能只是在烧钱

尽管历史上的基础设施扩建从长期来看往往是有利的——即便新增产能在建成后并不会立刻被充分利用——但AI基础设施面临的问题在于,先进半导体通常“保质期”较短,更新迭代很快。

而在2026年,这一问题还被全球性的存储器短缺进一步放大。英伟达(Nvidia)这家蓝筹科技公司在2月第一周股价也出现大幅波动,并宣布将暂停游戏芯片的生产。

在AI热潮开始之前多年,高端游戏芯片一直是英伟达的核心业务。

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