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【券商聚焦】中信证券:展望2026年全年 仍然维持对贵金属和有色金属价格的乐观预期

金吾财讯2026年2月10日 01:03
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金吾财讯 | 中信证券表示,2026年1月以来,黄金价格出现了大幅度波动,从基本面来看主要是两个因素:美联储独立性和伊朗局势。综合媒体报道,2026年1月开始,特朗普政府启动了对美联储主席鲍威尔的司法调查,而鲍威尔直接将这一调查与特朗普政府对美联储的政治施压相关联。展望短期市场,该机构认为市场可能高估了新美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派立场,但伊朗局势的不确定性仍然较高,或需等待局势尘埃落定后黄金市场波动才会收敛。展望2026年全年,该机构仍然维持对贵金属和有色金属价格的乐观预期。

该机构指,2026年至今,特朗普政府在对内和对外政策方面已经多次超出市场预期。在中期选举的驱动下,特朗普政府导致的政策与地缘的不确定性可能仍然较高。该机构认为仍然可以对黄金市场做出乐观展望。其他贵金属表现也将受到正面影响。不过后续还需要关注特朗普政府在经贸政策方面的举动。根据央视新闻报道,2026年2月4日中美元首通话。另外根据上游新闻报道,两国元首通话后特朗普表示,2026年4月他将访问中国。该机构认为,如果特朗普访华,可能在中美经贸关系方面有乐观进展。那么可能对黄金价格形成短期负面影响。但此前市场对中美经贸关系改善已经有很多预期,所以不改变该机构对黄金全年的乐观展望。

随着黄金市场的牛市继续,贵金属市场乐观情绪可能会扩散到有色金属当中,助推有色板块的牛市延续。如果中国、美国的基建与制造业领先指标在2026年出现改善,有色金属的市场表现可能会更加良好。

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