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一份惊人报告出炉:高盛开始做空AI!美国未来12个月经济衰退率上调至25%

FX1682024年8月8日 03:46
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FX168财经报社(亚太)讯 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius决定将未来12个月的衰退概率从10%上调至25%,知名金融博客ZeroHedge警告,这是一个闪烁的红色警告。高盛已正式开始做空人工智能(AI)股票,此前该行已警告AI领域尚未发现任何变革性应用。

ZeroHedge指出:“当高盛将这个主观指标从其静止基线上调哪怕一点点时,车轮已经脱落,如果不是经济,那肯定是市场。事实上,如下所示,上次高盛在2022年7月将衰退概率从15%的基线上调时,市场随后陷入了自新冠疫情以来最严重的熊市。”

(来源:Goldman Sachs)

报道称,从字里行间可以看出,高盛正在告诉其顶级客户,这是对冲潜在崩盘的最佳方式。

高盛主题投资主管路易斯·米勒(Louis Miller)写道,考虑到AI的衰退和不确定性,以及地缘局势、美国大选、美国经济和市场微观结构的不确定性,高盛“可以自信地说,今天与昨天和/或不久前不同,而动量因素还没有真正显示出来”。

因此,主题部门建议在这种更具辨别力的风险背景下出售该因素,尤其是与指数抛售和该因素的历史下跌相比,动量走势一直较为温和。

尽管近期波动较大(日本股市更是直接崩盘),但受长线基金表现优异,特别是AI/长期主题,以及短线基金在高利率环境下表现不佳的推动,今年的动能仍有望创下历史新高。

虽然动量指标每年都会经历非常严重和急剧的下跌,但今年的下跌幅度却非常温和。

换句话说,高盛现在正式做空AI,尽管这方面的痛苦已经很严重,但还有很长的路要走。

7月份的峰值时,AI为标准普尔500指数贡献了12%的增量回报。在最近的AI抛售潮之后,今年迄今这一比例降至仅3.6%,但如果泡沫确实被挤掉,这一比例可能会大幅下降。#AI热潮#

(来源:Goldman Sachs)

高盛做空曾经最受青睐的行业的另一个原因是,AI股票目前占标普500指数的近40%,而AI聊天机器人ChatGPT问世时这比例约为25%,这意味着它的价格仍然过高。

如果不清楚的话,动量实际上只是AI的另一个名称,下方显示的是动量和AI的两个月滚动相关性,它接近有史以来的最高水平。

(来源:Goldman Sachs)

除AI之外,还有其他成分构成篮子,动量与强劲的资产负债表、超大市值和AI主题相关,而短期则与最短仓位和价值相关。

换句话说,在高盛研究主管发出警告一个月后,读者已经充分意识到了这一点,当时他在一份必读报告中严厉批评“AI泡沫”,警告说“尚未发现任何变革性应用”。

而现在,该行已正式开始做空上述泡沫。

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