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欧元在日本央行就加息达成一致后对日元获得动能

FXStreet2026年9月18日 03:40
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  • 欧元/日元因日本央行如市场普遍预期将短期利率上调至1.25%而上涨。
  • 欧洲央行将关键利率上调至2.50%,同时拒绝承诺未来举措。
  • 两家央行均强调持续的中东冲突是物价稳定面临的重大威胁。

欧元/日元在前一日录得小幅下跌后反弹,周五亚洲时段交投于180.20附近。由于日本央行(BoJ)最新利率决议后日元(JPY)表现挣扎,这一货币对走高。日本央行董事会在周五结束为期两天的货币政策会议时,以7票对2票决定将短期利率上调25个基点至1.25%,高于此前的1.00%,这一举措完全符合市场预期。

在货币政策声明中,日本央行指出,宽松的金融环境仍然存在,潜在通胀正逐步接近其目标。该央行表示,将随着经济和物价的发展继续加息,并预计潜在通胀将从2026财年下半年至2027财年达到与2%目标一致的水平。然而,董事会成员强调,有必要监测中东持续局势对经济、物价以及全球金融和外汇市场的影响。

上周,欧洲央行(ECB)将其关键存款利率上调25个基点至2.50%,高于此前的2.25%,符合投资者预期。这是自伊朗战争爆发以来欧洲央行第二次加息,欧洲央行重申不会对未来任何政策举措作出预先承诺。

在宣布决定时,欧洲央行行长克里斯蒂娜-拉加德警告称,地缘政治风险继续对经济前景构成压力。拉加德表示,中东冲突以及俄罗斯对乌克兰战争的最新进展,预计将在较长时间内使整体通胀率远高于该央行2%的目标。

欧元区通胀趋稳,欧洲央行鹰派基调令加息概率仍存

加拿大丰业银行(Scotiabank)策略师指出,最新的欧元区通胀数据并未改变政策叙事,“欧元区最终CPI数据几乎没有带来意外,整体通胀仍处于3%低位区间,核心通胀则徘徊在2%中段。”他们补充称,“欧洲央行的表态仍然偏鹰派”,并强调市场目前“定价10月加息概率略高于50%,到12月累计收紧36个基点”,这凸显出尽管没有新的通胀冲击,政策制定者仍可能继续采取额外的紧缩措施。

经济指标

日本央行利率决议

日本银行(BoJ)在每年八次定期会议后宣布其利率决定。一般来说,如果BoJ对经济的通胀前景持鹰派态度并提高利率,这对日元(JPY)是利好的。同样地,如果BoJ对日本经济持鸽派观点并保持利率不变或降低利率,这通常对JPY是不利的。

阅读更多

上次发布时间: 周五 9月 18, 2026 02:54

频率: 不定期

实际值: 1.25%

预期值: 1.25%

前值: 1%

来源: Bank of Japan

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