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RBA的布洛克:在8月董事会会议上,前景风险偏向上行

FXStreet2026年9月17日 23:41
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澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)行长米歇尔-布洛克(Michele Bullock)周五表示,在 8 月份董事会会议上,前景风险偏向上行。

要点引述

各种指标显示,劳动力市场状况仍接近充分就业,但略微偏紧。 

在 8 月份董事会会议上,前景风险偏向上行。 

此后事态发展表明,尽管澳大利亚经济增长正在放缓,但通胀的一些上行风险似乎正在显现。 

联络计划显示,许多企业正在将更高的投入成本转嫁出去。 

近期数据总体上与 2026 年上半年需求增长放缓的预期一致。 

房地产市场状况已经走软,幅度大于预期的宽松可能会拖累经济活动。 

关键问题是,迄今为止的货币紧缩是否足以在合理时间内使通胀回到目标水平。 

货币政策已做好应对相关发展的准备,重点是物价稳定和充分就业。 

降低通胀至关重要。 

市场反应 

撰写时,澳元/美元当日上涨 0.37%,报 0.7113。 

澳大利亚央行常见问题(FAQ)

澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)为澳大利亚制定利率并管理货币政策。理事会每年在11次会议上作出决定,并根据需要召开临时紧急会议。澳大利亚央行的主要任务是维持物价稳定,这意味着通胀率在2-3%,但也“……为货币稳定、充分就业、经济繁荣和澳大利亚人民的福利做出贡献。”它实现这一目标的主要工具是提高或降低利率。相对较高的利率将使澳元走强,反之亦然。澳大利亚央行的其他工具包括量化宽松和紧缩政策。

传统上,通货膨胀一直被认为是货币的负面因素,因为它总体上降低了货币的价值,但在现代,随著跨境资本管制的放松,情况实际上正好相反。现在,适度的高通胀往往会导致央行提高利率,这反过来又会吸引更多的资金流入,这些资金来自寻求利润丰厚的投资场所的全球投资者。这增加了对当地货币的需求,在澳大利亚就是澳元。

宏观经济数据衡量经济的健康状况,并可能对其货币的价值产生影响。投资者更愿意将资金投资于安全和增长的经济体,而不是不稳定和萎缩的经济体。更多的资本流入增加了总需求和本国货币的价值。GDP、制造业和服务业pmi、就业和消费者信心调查等经典指标都会影响澳元。强劲的经济可能会鼓励澳大利亚储备银行提高利率,这也支持澳元。

量化宽松(QE)是在降低利率不足以恢复经济中信贷流动的极端情况下使用的工具。量化宽松是澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)印刷澳元(AUD)以从金融机构购买资产(通常是政府或公司债券)的过程,从而为他们提供急需的流动性。量化宽松通常会导致澳元走弱。

量化紧缩(QT)是量化宽松的反面。它是在量化宽松之后,当经济正在复苏,通胀开始上升时进行的。在量化宽松中,澳大利亚储备银行(RBA)从金融机构购买政府和公司债券,为它们提供流动性,而在QT中,澳大利亚储备银行停止购买更多的资产,并停止将其持有的到期债券的本金再投资。这将对澳元有利(或看涨)。

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