Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của Tempus (TEM): Doanh thu tăng 23%, nâng dự báo

Thông tin trọng tâm

• Tempus (TEM) đạt doanh thu quý 3 năm 2026 là 411,5 triệu USD, tăng 23% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, nhờ sự tăng trưởng ở các phân khúc Chẩn đoán cũng như Dữ liệu và Ứng dụng.
• Doanh thu mảng Chẩn đoán tăng 20% lên 303,5 triệu USD. Doanh thu mảng Ung thư tăng 28% lên 172,6 triệu USD, trong khi số lượng xét nghiệm ung thư tăng 32%.
• Doanh thu mảng Dữ liệu và Ứng dụng tăng 33% lên 108,1 triệu USD, bao gồm mức tăng trưởng 29% ở mảng cấp phép dữ liệu Insights.
• EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt 25,6 triệu USD. Tempus kết thúc quý với 854,4 triệu USD tiền mặt và chứng khoán thanh khoản.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo doanh thu năm 2026 lên khoảng 1,600 tỷ - 1,605 tỷ USD và duy trì dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh ở mức khoảng 65 triệu USD.
• Tempus kỳ vọng các thỏa thuận với BMS và Pathos sẽ tạo ra thêm 192,5 triệu USD doanh thu từ Dữ liệu và Ứng dụng trong khoảng thời gian khoảng 5 năm.

Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng

Kết quả hoạt động kinh doanh và vận hành

Ung thư tiếp tục là động lực tăng trưởng chính của mảng Chẩn đoán. Doanh thu tăng 28%, trong khi số lượng xét nghiệm tăng 32%, mức mà ban lãnh đạo mô tả là một trong những tốc độ tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ nhất trong nhiều năm. Công ty cũng ghi nhận nhu cầu sinh thiết lỏng tăng mạnh hơn, được hỗ trợ bởi việc thực hiện đồng thời xét nghiệm mô cứng và sinh thiết lỏng cũng như sự gia tăng sử dụng xét nghiệm định kỳ liên tiếp.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết mảng xét nghiệm di truyền đang chuyển biến theo hướng tốt hơn sau khi vượt qua mức tăng trưởng cao bất thường của năm trước. Tăng trưởng số lượng xét nghiệm đã trở lại mức hai chữ số ở vùng thấp trong tháng 9 và tháng 10. Công ty đánh giá phân khúc này vẫn chưa được khai thác triệt để, lưu ý rằng các hướng dẫn và chính sách chi trả hiện tại có thể bao phủ khoảng 70 triệu người dân Mỹ trong khi Tempus hiện chỉ thực hiện khoảng 2 triệu xét nghiệm mỗi năm.

Doanh thu mảng Dữ liệu và Ứng dụng tăng 33%. Tempus đã chuyển đổi mảng kinh doanh này từ các giao dịch dữ liệu đơn lẻ sang các hợp đồng đăng ký nhiều năm thông qua nền tảng Lens. Khách hàng có thể phân tích dữ liệu và xây dựng mô hình trong môi trường GPU riêng tư, giúp mối quan hệ hợp tác trở nên gắn kết hơn và tạo ra nguồn thu định kỳ.

Tempus cho biết công ty đã tích lũy hơn 600 petabyte dữ liệu, bao gồm hơn 50 petabyte được bổ sung trong quý. Hạ tầng của công ty kết nối với khoảng 8.000 đơn vị cung cấp dịch vụ y tế. Bộ dữ liệu mở rộng của Tempus bao gồm khoảng 50 triệu bệnh nhân, với hơn 80% nằm ngoài lĩnh vực ung thư.

Công ty đã ký một hợp tác chiến lược, theo đó Bristol Myers Squibb có thể cấp phép dữ liệu và mô hình ung thư với giá trị lên tới 137,5 triệu USD trong 5 năm. Một hợp tác liên quan giữa BMS, Pathos và Tempus sẽ phát triển các bộ dữ liệu và mô hình bệnh Alzheimer, trong đó Pathos trả cho Tempus 55 triệu USD trong 5 năm. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng hai thỏa thuận này sẽ đóng góp thêm 192,5 triệu USD doanh thu trong khoảng 5 năm.

Tempus cũng công bố thỏa thuận hợp tác nhiều năm với Moderna và Merck nhằm hỗ trợ khả năng thương mại hóa liệu pháp tân kháng nguyên cá thể hóa đang được đánh giá kết hợp với KEYTRUDA.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Tempus đã nâng triển vọng doanh thu năm 2026 lên 1,600 tỷ - 1,605 tỷ USD. Công ty tiếp tục dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh đạt khoảng 65 triệu USD.

Đối với năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng chính sách chi trả cập nhật cho phiên bản xét nghiệm xT chỉ phân tích khối u đã được FDA phê duyệt sẽ có hiệu lực từ ngày 1 tháng 1. Công ty ước tính điều này có thể giúp tăng doanh thu mảng ung thư khoảng 80 triệu USD nhờ điều chỉnh giá trong năm 2027. Các lợi ích bổ sung về giá từ xF vẫn phụ thuộc vào việc hoàn tất quy trình và sự phê duyệt của FDA.

Ban lãnh đạo tin rằng mức tăng trưởng tổng doanh thu ít nhất 25% là có thể đạt được trong dài hạn, nhờ vào sản lượng xét nghiệm ung thư, mức chi trả cao hơn và sự tăng trưởng của mảng Dữ liệu và Ứng dụng. Đây đại diện cho mục tiêu của ban lãnh đạo chứ không phải là dự báo chính thức hàng năm.

Tempus dự định tiếp tục tái đầu tư khoảng hai phần ba lợi nhuận gộp tăng thêm, trong khi khoảng một phần ba sẽ chuyển thành EBITDA điều chỉnh. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết tỷ lệ phân bổ này có thể đảo ngược sau vài năm khi các mảng kinh doanh mới mở rộng quy mô và tạo ra nhiều lợi nhuận gộp hơn.

Rủi ro và Các điểm cần theo dõi

• Thương vụ thâu tóm Personalis đang chờ xử lý đã vượt qua vòng xem xét của cơ quan quản lý, với cuộc bỏ phiếu của cổ đông được ấn định vào ngày 30 tháng 11. Việc hoàn tất giao dịch vẫn phụ thuộc vào tiến trình thực hiện.
• Personalis hiện đang chịu lỗ trên các xét nghiệm MRD. Tempus kỳ vọng chính sách chi trả tốt hơn, bao gồm khả năng được chi trả đối với ung thư đại trực tràng, sẽ giúp các xét nghiệm này đạt lợi nhuận gộp dương trên mỗi đơn vị, nhưng ban lãnh đạo cho biết thời điểm có thể rơi vào quý 2 hoặc quý 3 năm 2027 và vẫn chưa chắc chắn.
• Việc triển khai thương mại hóa MRD rộng rãi hơn phụ thuộc nhiều vào chính sách chi trả và hiệu quả kinh tế ở cấp độ xét nghiệm hơn là việc hoàn tất thương vụ thâu tóm.
• Tempus dự kiến sẽ gánh các khoản lỗ của Personalis sau khi hoàn tất thương vụ. Ban lãnh đạo vẫn dự báo EBITDA điều chỉnh sẽ cải thiện nhưng không có kế hoạch tối đa hóa khả năng sinh lời trong ngắn hạn bằng cách đánh đổi các khoản đầu tư cho tăng trưởng.
• Dư địa tăng mức chi trả cho xF phụ thuộc vào sự phê duyệt của FDA. Ban lãnh đạo không cam kết một ngày phê duyệt cụ thể.
• Xét nghiệm di truyền đang ở mức so sánh với đợt tăng trưởng cao bất thường của năm trước, tạo ra mức nền so sánh đầy thách thức dù xu hướng số lượng xét nghiệm gần đây có sự cải thiện.

Tóm tắt phần Hỏi & Đáp với Chuyên gia phân tích

Định giá dịch vụ chẩn đoán: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tác động hạn chế từ PAMA đối với mức giá xét nghiệm ung thư di truyền. Công ty dự báo giá bán trung bình của xét nghiệm di truyền có thể tăng nhẹ theo thời gian khi xét nghiệm các bệnh hiếm có giá cao hơn chiếm tỷ trọng lớn hơn trong cơ cấu sản phẩm.

Mở rộng MRD: Tempus có kế hoạch đẩy mạnh hoạt động bán hàng MRD trong năm 2027, với khả năng triển khai mạnh mẽ hơn một khi các xét nghiệm tạo ra lợi nhuận gộp dương trên mỗi đơn vị. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng mức tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ hơn từ nửa sau năm 2027 sang năm 2028 nếu mức chi trả phát triển đúng như dự kiến.

Vị thế của Personalis: Ban lãnh đạo mô tả xét nghiệm MRD dựa trên thông tin khối u của Personalis có độ nhạy cao và tin rằng sự tích hợp với bệnh viện, hạ tầng bán hàng và danh mục xét nghiệm kết nối của Tempus có thể hỗ trợ việc áp dụng. Công ty đã phân phối độc quyền xét nghiệm này kể từ năm 2023.

Khả năng dự báo doanh thu dữ liệu: Các thỏa thuận nhiều năm với các khách hàng sinh dược phẩm đã làm giảm tính chất đơn lẻ của mảng kinh doanh dữ liệu. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các hợp đồng này mang lại khả năng dự báo rõ ràng hơn cho các năm 2027, 2028 và 2029.

Phát triển mô hình AI: Các khách hàng của Tempus ngày càng thực hiện nhiều hoạt động phân tích và phát triển mô hình bên trong môi trường Lens bằng cách sử dụng các cụm GPU chuyên dụng. Hợp đồng có thể bao gồm các cam kết 3 năm cho 32 hoặc 64 GPU, làm tăng mức độ gắn kết của khách hàng với nền tảng.

Mở rộng ngoài lĩnh vực ung thư: Hợp tác về bệnh Alzheimer là thỏa thuận dữ liệu lớn đầu tiên của Tempus ngoài mảng ung thư. Thỏa thuận này dự kiến sẽ tạo ra một bộ dữ liệu bao phủ khoảng 500.000 bệnh nhân mắc bệnh Alzheimer và sa sút trí tuệ giai đoạn muộn. Ban lãnh đạo xem đây là một hướng tăng trưởng tiềm năng mới cho mảng kinh doanh dữ liệu.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Tempus Q3 2026 Financial Results Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Kendra Webster, VP of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Matt. Good morning, and welcome to Tempus' Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. This morning, Tempus released results for the quarter ended September 30, 2026. The -- the press release, overview of the quarter and our latest presentation are available on our IR website at investor.tempus.com. Joining me today are Eric Lipkowski, Founder and CEO of Tempes and Jim Rogers, CFO.

Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during this call, management will be making forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties and that could cause actual results to differ materially. For a discussion of these risks, please refer to our 10-K and other subsequent filings with the SEC.

During the call, we will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, which are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles. Definitions of these non-GAAP financial measures, along with reconciliations to the mostly to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release, which is available on our IR page. I will now turn the call over to Eric.

Eric Lefkofsky

Q3 was an incredibly strong quarter for Tempus with broad-based growth across both our Diagnostics and data and applications businesses. Momentum from the first half of 2026 carried into the third quarter. With total revenue of $411.5 million, increasing 23% year-over-year, led by accelerating unit growth of 32% in our oncology business and increasing momentum of 33% revenue growth in data and apps.

Our Diagnostics business delivered $303.5 million of revenue, an increase of 20% year-over-year, driven by oncology revenues, which grew 28% with volume growth of 32%, as we continue to see some of the strongest unit volume growth we have seen in years. Oncology revenues were $172.6 million, and hereditary cancer testing revenues were $111.3 million. Data and apps revenues were $108.1 million, increasing 33% year-over-year as that business continues to outperform, led by Insights, our data licensing segment, which grew 29% and -- these results reinforce the durability of our model as our best-in-class diagnostic platform enhances our data and AI offerings, distinguishes our business from our many competitors and helps drive the performance we have delivered consistently quarter after quarter.

There were also several notable highlights since our last quarterly call. We entered into a strategic collaboration with Bristol-Myers Squibb, or BMS whereby we agreed to license BMS oncology data and models for up to $137.5 million over a 5-year term. Additionally, BMS, Pathos and Tempus have entered into a collaboration to build data sets and models for Alzheimer's disease. Through this collaboration, Pathos is paying Tempus $55 million over a 5-year term.

As a result, over the next approximately 5 years, we expect to generate $192.5 million of additional data and applications revenue from these agreements alone. This is 1 of our largest strategic collaborations to date, and it's nice to see BMS join the likes of AstraZeneca, Merck, GlaxoSmithKline and BioNTech. As I've said before, if we signed just 1 of these big collaborations, we would be content.

We've signed 3 this year alone. We announced a multiyear strategic collaboration with Moderna and Merck to support the potential commercialization of their novel first-in-class individualized neoantigen therapy, or INT, being evaluated in combination with KEYTRUDA in patients with completed resected Stage 2 B4 melanoma and other cancer types. Given the exceptional response of the clinical trial data so far and the potential for this drug to be transformational, we are excited by the future of this program and thrilled to be partnering with Moderna and Merck.

We cleared regulatory review of our pending acquisition of Personalis and a personal shareholder meeting to approve the transaction is scheduled for November 30. We are more convinced than ever of the synergies between our combined companies. We have been the exclusive distributor of personalysis tumor-informed MRD assay next since 2023, which we believe is a best-in-class assay given its ultrasensitivity, MRD represents an estimated $20-plus billion market and is 1 of the fastest-growing segments in oncology diagnostics.

It is transformative for cancer care, allowing clinicians to detect disease recurrence earlier than traditional imaging enabling more informed treatment decisions when cancer recurs, bringing personalysis testing portfolio under 1 roof will accelerate commercial adoption, round out our overall portfolio and strengthen the multimodal data flywheel that continues to differentiate our business. We generated $25.6 million in adjusted EBITDA and ended the quarter with $854.4 million in cash and marketable securities. We had long suspected that with gross profit dollar growth outpacing our investments, we would eventually turn the corner and be able to generate meaningful EBITDA.

This quarter, we made the turn. Despite our increasing investments in diagnostics, we have always been a tech company. Our entire business model was built around the idea of collecting vast amounts of real-time, multimodal de-identified data to both improve clinical decisions and enhance research. A decade later, those efforts have allowed us to amass more than 600 petabytes of rich data, adding more than 50 petabytes last quarter alone. -- along with the technology infrastructure that is connected to approximately 8,000 providers, enabling us to use that data to train models and generate insights.

The scale of our business and the breadth of our portfolio has allowed us to build a significant data mode by compounding a decade of investment in our AI capabilities, we deliver solutions that grow more powerful with every patient touch point. cementing our position as an indispensable engine for health care innovation. As the world gets hungrier for the benefits AI can deliver, namely, allowing people to live longer and healthier lives Tempus is uniquely positioned as we have strategically amassed the data needed to power these models and the distribution platform to deliver them to patients.

As a result of our financial performance this quarter, we are increasing guidance to $1.60 billion to $1.605 billion in 2026. The -- we continue to expect 2026 adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $65 million. And with that, we will open it up to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]

Your first question comes from the line of Kyle Mikson with Canaccord Genuity.

Phần hỏi đáp

Kyle Mikson

Congrats on the quarter. So 1 question on hereditary. You're hoping that return to stable growth next year, but just given these proposed financial schedule rates that Dr. and Hamaca. 'm just wondering how you're thinking about potential headwinds there given and then obviously, ASV tailwinds on the oncology side. So maybe just talk about diagnostics outlook for '27?

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. I can start. So I think the overall hereditary business seems to be poised to do kind of much better as we move forward than it has over the last few quarters, in large part because it's both lapping excessive growth last year, which we've talked about relative to the some of the market dynamics where you had a big player in the market that was having some financial issues, a bunch of volume moved over.

And so instead of kind of nice even whatever year 15% growth year after year, you have this like jump up to 30% growth that we're now lapping. We've seen some good sign of that in September and October were unit growth rates have returned to low double digits. So we feel overall like that business is moving in a better direction. And whatever macro headwind there is in terms of guidance is kind of small compared to the just massive unaddressed TAM relative to the fact that current guidelines and current reimbursement would cover about 70 million lives and we run in the U.S. and we run something like 2 million tests a year.

So I think we still have a very underpenetrated market. I suspect as more and more literature comes out, finding clear links between germline variants and diseases that can be prevented or managed earlier, you'll see this category continue to be stable and grow. And Jim can cover ASPs on the oncology side.

James Rogers

Yes. So on ASPs for hereditary, just as a reminder, obviously, hereditary cancer based on the majority of that revenue, but we do have a small but growing rare business. And so we don't anticipate material impacts from PAMA on the hereditary cancer rates in that we've long said that the hereditary rates for us will actually probably increase slightly over time as rare becomes a bigger kind of piece of the overall pie.

So that's the store ISPs for hereditary. And then on the oncology side, as we talked about, given the expansion of our FDA approval to include kind of tumor only for our XT test, that updated pricing will kick in on January 1 and allow us to move the remaining XT volume over. That gives us about $80 million of uplift in oncology ASP in 2027. And then we still have XF kind of going through the FDA process.

And once that kind of finalize that process and hopefully gets approved, then there'll be even a larger increase as we migrate XF to the FDA-approved version of the assets. So lots of tailwind from ASP expected on the oncology side beginning early in '27, and we don't anticipate much impact on the hereditary AC.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sarah James with Cantor Gerald.

Sarah James

I was hoping you could talk a little bit about the headwinds and tailwinds in '27. So can we assume that CGP volume holds in the low 20s and D&A might be closer to $30 million than $25 million you've still got the incremental gross profit, 2/3 of it even after Personalis being reinvested. Can we get to the 25% long-term range and thinking out further once we get the benefit of XTM excess uplift to '28 be a year above that 25% CAGR.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. I mean I think -- so first of all, we feel like a business at our size growing at 25% a year over a long term is incredibly healthy. So we've always said we're more interested in long-term 25% growth than we are in kind of short-term 30% growth that then decelerates. So I mean, when you talk about a business that's going to do a few billion dollars in revenue that's growing at 25%, that means like literally that every year, you're adding $500 million or more of new revenue, and then that becomes $1 billion of new revenue and more and more. So we're into the law of large numbers.

We're fortunate that our 2 main businesses, our oncology sequencing business is experiencing strong unit growth, about 32%. It's actually up from last quarter. It's got obviously rising ASPs, both because our solid tumor portfolio is about to be reimbursed at the ADLT rate and then when you get into the later part of the year, you'll have the -- could have FDA approval where you're going to get an even bigger step up. So we've got really strong unit growth, rising ASPs and our data business is performing even better in the aggregate at about 33% growth.

And obviously, we've announced a string of very big deals with Merck and BionTech and now BMS. And so it's really the core businesses are super strong. But we have other businesses like our rebate growing slower. And so in the aggregate, we feel like this kind of 25-plus percent growth rate is achievable and achievable long term. Is it possible that you get into '27 or '28 and have moments where the business is growing significantly faster, either because of ASP lift or because the data business just is running really hot, Yes.

But even if it is, even if we deliver a quarter where the aggregate growth is materially higher, I will say the same thing, which is it's great, I'm glad, but at the end of the day, if you can sustain kind of 25% growth over a decade over another decade, you will build a really large business. And we think we're building a really large business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Massaro with BTIG.

Mark Massaro

Nice continued growth in MRD, you're tracking about up 3,000 units per quarter, recognizing that only 15% of your sales force is selling today and the shareholder meeting is sort of around the corner after Thanksgiving. Can you just give us a sense for once personalysis in your portfolio, to what extent you plan to ungate and let the remaining 85% of reps sell the test. Is that something that we could expect in the first half of 2027? Or is that -- are there other criteria you need to see later in the year?

Eric Lefkofsky

I think it's going to be largely a function of -- it's more a function of reimbursement than it is a function of closing the deal. We have to be sensitive that at the present moment when personnels runs these tests they lose money. And once we acquire them, we'll be in the same boat. Granted, we are in this really nice place where given the categories they've got reimbursement for in 2026. They're in this rising ASP landscape where they're getting much closer to being breakeven on an individual test basis.

And we think with some of the approvals coming, obviously, in categories like colorectal cancer, we think we will turn that corner where on a per test basis, they're generating basically positive gross profit. That's a big unlock to really ramp up. Now that said, we're still ramping now. We're adding sales members to our team in the aggregate across all of our different assay categories, and we will in '27 dial up MRD in sales efforts.

But the big unlock, which I suspect will be, I don't know, it could be midyear, it could be Q2, it could be Q3. who knows. But somewhere, I suspect midyear, you'll be in this boat where they will turn the corner and be kind of positive -- it was profit dollar contribution on a per test basis, and then we'll feel much better about really starting to put the pedal to the metal. So I think over the latter half of '27 into '28, I would suspect growth will continue to be really strong.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bradley Bowers with Mizuho.

Bradley Bowers

Just wanted to maybe ask another 1 on MRD while we're here. Definitely understand the timing with respect to how much you're getting paid per test and colorectal is a big unlock -- what do you think about the competitive landscape that you're launching into? Obviously, Tempus has a lot of things that it offers to physicians that would allow the test to win kind of at the physician level, but maybe just want to hear about the MRD offering kind of as it's fully rolled into Tempest and how that compares to competition and how we can maybe think about market share expectations for the test.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. I'll jump in. So the assay first of all, is best-in-class. I mean it's -- in terms of its performance, it performs as well as any assay out there. Obviously, we take a better but it's a super well-performing assay. So we're never meeting with oncologists, whether it's academic medical center or community practitioners who were saying, God, is wish you had a better test. They love the test. So the real unlock to volume is just that the full Tempus sales machine is kind of unlocked to sell MRD at scale.

And that, again, is a function of do you have unit economics that support that, and we're getting very close. I think once that's in place, the same benefits that drive our CGP business, which is this kind of best-in-class technology stack, deep integration to thousands of hospitals a broad compendium of tests that all are interconnected to clinical insights and algorithmic diagnostics, that all just literally feeds perfectly into MRD.

And our clients, our physicians are interested in us offering more and more, more broadly. And so I think there's really no competitive impediment to us getting to real scale. And I would suspect I think I've said this before, that at the end of the day, what Tempus has done that's, I think, unique is no other company like ours is #1 or #2 in more than 1 category. We are #1 or #2 in solid. We are #1 or #2 in liquid. We are obviously #1 or #2 in hereditary cancer profiling, and we will be #1 or #2 in MRD, I think.

There's just no reason for me to believe that market won't evolve the same way. When we entered solid tumor profiling, Foundation Medicine was every bit the kind of lies that Natera is today and the same thing in liquids. So I suspect we will do quite well in MRD because we wrap all this technology and all this AI and all this intextualization around these tests, and we just become a test of preference for our physicians.

Operator

Your next caller comes from the line of Ryan MacDonald with Needham.

Ryan MacDonald

Eric and Jim, maybe to talk about the success you're seeing in the data business, obviously, amazing year so far with the $500 -- over $550 million of bookings throughout the year. I guess as you look at sort of maybe the state of the pipeline and maybe of the business and sort of demand cycle.

Are you seeing any changes in terms of pull forward of demand -- and then as we think about sort of the components of the pipeline, what's the mix that you're seeing sort of within oncology, neuro, cardiology, some of these areas? And Jim, how does this sort of make you feel about the level of visibility going into 2027 to sort of hit those 25% to 30% targets that you're looking for in the business?

Eric Lefkofsky

Jim, do you want to take it?

James Rogers

Yes. I mean I'd say that the pipeline -- we've been talking about this now for several quarters. That's a kind of towards the tail end of last year, we saw kind of an uptick in engagement with our biopartners, we started kind of commencing out of that, and I think you've kind of seen it playing out in the deals that we've announced thus far this year. The beauty of these deals are as we kind of march our customers up from being kind of episodic purchasers to these large strategic collaborations, it obviously just enhances the level of visibility that we have for that business.

So you're no longer trying to get deals signed, you had them in kind of under contract for kind of 5, 6 years, very long-term deals that give us that visibility. And so as we enter '27, we feel like we're in a really strong position to see that growth, not only in '27, but '28 '29 as well.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. And I'll just jump in. I mean, I think the -- the nice part about the data business that we've been able to build is we used to -- our business about 4 or 5 years ago was much more lumpy and episodic in terms of the way we did these deals. But over the last half a decade, we've really migrated people to long-term subscriptions where people are basically connecting to our lens platform.

They have access to the totality of our data they're able to, based on the level of subscription they sign up for, pick a certain number of files that they can download annually and do work with more and more, as we've mentioned, they're now connecting that data to kind of private GPU clusters that we set up for them where they can build models that they can keep in our environment to basically do a bunch of their AI modeling work. And so it just -- it becomes much smoother long term, sticky. And so it's nice to kind of be going into -- we'll be going into 2027 and like the strongest position we've been in for a long time.

James Rogers

And 1 more thing that I'd add is 1 of the exciting things about the BMS collaboration is the work that we're doing in Alzheimer's. We've long talked about kind of expanding beyond oncology, although oncology drove most of the revenue today, but the data sets that we've invested in over the last 10 years well beyond oncology in other disease areas and seeing that demand pick up and expand beyond oncology is something we're really good except on.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of EV Kozlowski with Goldman Sachs.

Evie Koslosky

So given the strength, I think you mentioned in the AI modeling portion of the Insights business, -- how does this change the stickiness of the relationships with your customers? And then maybe touch on what percentage of the Insights data customers also utilize AI modeling and then how you expect this to evolve into next year?

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. I think the stickiness is essentially a function of how we've designed the data business. So as I mentioned a second ago, -- if you go back, we started licensing data, maybe, I don't know, roughly 6 or 7 years or something like that. And back then, you would be like, "Oh, I want 1,000 files of cancer patients that look like this and we would identify that data and then you would download that data in your environment. And so we didn't know what you were doing with the data.

We didn't know how -- what kind of value you're getting from it. We didn't -- we hope that you would call back 6 months later, a year later, want more data, but it was very transactional. Over time, we basically said, look, we built this very large environment. We have something like 700 software engineers that have been working here for almost a decade.

So we built this very large multimodal technology environment to interrogate this kind of data, and we started saying to our clients, why don't you do that work in our environment. It's just -- we've just invested way more in it than you have -- and so people began doing more and more of their analytic work, generating insights from the data in our lens platform. And then over time, we move to this kind of concept of, okay, we'll actually put all the data in lens you can build cohorts of interest in lens, pull down the data, just the exact data you want, the exact patients you want, which typically have criteria that would almost match a trial based on inclusion exclusive criteria.

We're going like very deep characteristics of a cohort, pull that data into a workspace within our environment. Build kind of either do your analytics or build models and then you're off and running. And obviously, that latter part building models is new. You used to be able to just kind of do analytics and then kind of take the analytics out or download the files directly in your own environment. But now we're connecting lens to 8 GPUs, 16 GPUs, 32 GPUs, some kind of cluster like that.

Typically denominations to date, where clients are signing up for like 3 years of 32 GPUs or 3 years of 64 GPUs and they will build -- they're building models in our environment that either have to stay in our environment or you pay an egress free to pull them out. And so it's gone from like not sticky to crazy sticky. And so we just -- in light of how people are using our data today, we just don't know how they would in mass get off unless somebody else builds the same set of products we've built, which we don't see.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Subu Nambi with Guggenheim.

Subhalaxmi Nambi

In your letter, you specifically called out strength in excess of order acquisitions being up 25% year-over-year. Could you give us any additional color on what is driving the strength? Is there any specific indication or academic setting, community setting EMR integration, any reason?

Eric Lefkofsky

I'm happy to start. So you have some kind of macro trends, which we've talked about a bit in the past that are just driving in the aggregate, some overall liquid volume. One of them is the benefits of concurrent testing, especially for metastatic patients is just high. So there's just been a ton of literature over the past few years about mutations, driver mutations you can find from solid tumor profiling or liquid profiling that you have to do both to find all of them.

And that -- and we published on this as well, but it can be 10% to 20% of mutations that would be therapeutically relevant that you won't find if you only do solid tumor profiling or you only do liquid biopsies. So you have this movement to kind of do both more often for later-stage patients that are high risk of mortality. And then you also have the benefits of kind of earlier testing serial testing certainly in certain indications where more and more, it's becoming important to be changing therapies every 6 months or every year and getting another insight from a test -- and so liquid is just a beneficiary of that.

We've seen it, I think, overall in the market, Garden, who's a leader in that space has posted really strong unit volume as well. And we just see this as a as kind of a near-term trend of really robust growth in liquid. Up until now, our growth rates have been relatively consistent. Sal's been growing really strong. as a liquid. And we've historically called out that it's not meaningful to talk about the difference between the 2 of them.

That's still the case for Q3. Our solid portfolio grew really quickly. But we did see a sign here in September, which we called out that we saw this kind of uptick of whatever, 300, 400 basis points. If that continues into Q4 you will start to see the first signs of really differentiation between liquid and Solidware, even with really strong growth rates and solid and it was outperforming. And with that plus MRD, it could be a propel growth rates over the next several quarters.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Brennan with TD Cowen.

Daniel Brennan

Sorry for the voice here. Maybe just on EBITDA, nice print. Consensus has margins expanding mix, I think, to 7% and then 1 in -- and there's always this push and pull for diagnostic companies, how much you reinvest back in the business versus let it drop through. So I'm wondering, you've got that slide in the deck showing EBITDA like a line going up. Like to 71%, is that like a reasonable ramp how you guys think about it?

And connected to that. I know you had the $2,600 realized oncology price that you also pointed to in the next few years to be meaningfully above what we have today. So I'm just wondering how much of that increase in oncology pricing, you guys would be inclined to drop through to the bottom line?

Eric Lefkofsky

I mean to start so we'll jump in.

James Rogers

Yes, more than happy to start and then you can jump in. So I think our view on EBITDA kind of remains the same. We're still relatively early days in a lot of the offerings. And so we've had this perspective of kind of reinvesting 2/3 or roughly 2/3 of any incremental gross profit dollars that we generate back in the business and then letting a third drop down to the bottom line.

So obviously, with personal is coming on board, we are already going to invest a lot in MRD. We will utilize some of the reinvestment dollars to absorb with the burn from personnel is -- but then after another couple of years, then that slips, right?

Then you're generating meaningful gross profit dollars such that you really only need to invest a third, you can let kind of 2/3 drop down to the bottom line. So -- we want to demonstrate that we continue to see leverage in the business, which we saw obviously a big step forward that in the quarter. But we're not in a position where we want to maximize EBITDA in the short term because we think the opportunity set across our entire portfolio is so large and that would be a poor choice that our -- given that where we're at in our life cycle.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. And I was just going to add, we have obviously kind of now you can start to see this really strong EBITDA trend line that is picking up. but personnel who -- assuming that obviously closes here the next whatever later in Q4, they're burning money. And so you have to look at both businesses as one, we'll have to absorb some of their losses. But even absorbing their losses, we still expect improvements in EBITDA, and we're on a really nice trajectory where we've got to decide how to invest the strong gross profit dollar growth we're generating quarter-after-quarter.

Operator

Your last analyst question comes from the line of Dan Arias with Stifel.

Daniel Arias

Eric or Jim, within data, can you just maybe catch us up on where trials might land for the year on revenues or growth? And then what the outlook might be there in the context of where AI is helping to cause I mean trial matching seems to be 1 of these areas where pharma folks are most encouraged about how things can get better with some of these newer capabilities.

So curious whether you see an inflection there in the next year or 2?

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. We -- so we took our real-time or just-in-time clinical trial matching business, which we call time. We tried to build the marketplace for a while to see if like small biotechs could load in their trials and with this marketplace evolved. We didn't see that growth. And so we pivoted the business really about a year ago, maybe 18 months ago, to be more enterprise focused on our largest enterprise data clients.

So we're fortunate now that this network, which spans north of 1,000 oncologists across the country and has this really robust platform to be able to identify patients that are fit for a trial and get them on a trial produces what pharma needs badly, which is enrollments. We're a high generator of enrollments for pharma. And so it's a really nice asset. And -- but I don't think it's going to scale into a $1 billion business.

And so we had to essentially target it toward, hey, we're in these strategic partnerships with more and more large pharma clients, whether that's BMS or Merck or AstraZeneca or whatever. And these folks want to need help, and we're tightly integrated. And so our time network now is enterprise-focused where you as a client have to come on, load on all or most of your oncology trials, and that's how the baskets are built.

And we have a wait list of folks now that want into that network. So the kind of market dynamics have allowed that to become a really premium product. And I suspect it will continue to grow nicely. It's just not going to be a huge business.

On the other side of our clinical trial matching business, our CRO business, as we mentioned years ago, we've been kind of deemphasizing some of the just pure CRO work because there are other people that do that and do it well, and it is a business that is in significant flux relative to artificial intelligence and what that's going to mean for the administrative and logistic components of -- and you're obviously seeing a lot of these big frontier modeling companies do deals with big Glen De departments at big pharma trying to figure some of that out.

We're fortunate that we don't play in that space. It's not important to us. And so we're kind of -- we'll let other people tackle that.

Operator

I'll now pass the call back to Kendra for additional Q&A.

Unknown Executive

Thank you, Matt. For the first time, we're pleased to answer questions submitted by retail investors through the Robin Hood platform. Our first question, can you classify the opportunity for growth outside of oncology?

Can you detail cardiology opportunities and other therapeutic areas of interest like nephrology, immunology and neurology.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. So I mean, obviously, as you mentioned a few minutes ago, 1 of the biggest benefits to the BMS deal is that it's our first really large deal outside oncology. So all of a sudden, we're building a very large Alzheimer's data set, it's a $55 million deal to generate a data set of like 0.5 million patients with Alzheimer's and late-stage dementia -- and so it's really exciting.

We've done smaller projects historically in data apps to enter these new businesses, but this is really the first time someone is in making a very large investment in real-world data with Tempus to build these kind of agent platforms. And we're excited because we think it's the start of a whole new round of growth for our data business, and we suspect it's going to continue at scale.

On the diagnostics side, we obviously are big in oncology. We do a bit of neuropsych testing. We do a bit of some rare testing. It's more a function of where is the reimbursement for these tests -- and we, like other companies kind of have to follow where the reimbursement landscape goes before we can enter new categories. But we do have 1 of the broader portfolios today, pan disease because we're in are, we're in neuro, we do some cardiac testing, obviously, with big cancer portfolio. So we touch a bunch is these areas.

Unknown Executive

Our next question -- if investor appetite for AI-related companies weekends, how confident are you that operating cash flow and existing liquidity can fund your growth plans and the Personalis acquisition.

Eric Lefkofsky

Super confident. Jim, do you want to want to come in.

James Rogers

Yes. I mean I'd say that the nice thing and part of the reason our business model is different is we're not overly reliant on 1 product. And so we have a very strong diagnostics business obviously, growth rates have been really strong in oncology. We're entering this period of kind of increasing ASPs pretty dramatically, almost $750 over the next couple of years.

And a lot of those dollars to be used to kind of fund investments elsewhere. Similarly, on the data side, as we continue to sign up kind of these long-term agreements with biopharma, again, gives us that visibility over the next several years to kind of continued growth. And lastly, as we've mentioned on kind of previous calls, we're reinvesting heavily today. And certainly, those investments are meant to drive long-term growth. And so we scaled that level of investment as necessary as well. But to Eric's point, we're very confident in being able to look.

Unknown Executive

Our last retail question. Since data is the main input for diagnostics and using AI to interpret and generate an outcome based on the data -- how can Tempus ensure that it has a growing inflow of patient data and how can it ensure that it will have access to it in the future since it doesn't own the patient data.

Eric Lefkofsky

Yes. So first of all, our diagnostic business is important for the data business, no question. Obviously, we're fortunate that we are 1 of the largest sequencers of patients for next sequencing in the world. And so we have a very broad portfolio from hereditary profiling to comprehensive genomic profiling when a patient is being treated to MRD and multiple diseases that we would suspect there's going to be a constant flow of new diagnostic data entering our platform.

That said, if you look at the 50 million patients or so within Tempus data set today, more than 80% of those patients are outside oncology and even the patients within oncology, I think more than 80%, we didn't sequence right? They're basically patients where the data is coming in because we have many, many, many data partnerships with academic medical centers and community practitioners. We have different products we offer where we get data as part of that -- as part of the product offering in terms of closing care gaps or matching patients to clinical trials.

And so we have a constant stream of data coming in from more than 8,000 providers. And so we've kind of over the last decade very intentionally tried to make sure the pipes that bring data into our platform are highly diversified so that we never have to worry about is the data going to dry up. And just as we are have crossed this chasm where the business is generating really strong gross profit dollar growth and EBITDA and will generate tons of cash flow, it's the same thing on the data side. We just have so much data flowing from so many directions that we've hedged that risk.

Unknown Executive

Thanks, Eric, and thank you all for joining our call this morning. Have a great week.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.