Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Alliant Energy (LNT): Tăng trưởng trên 8% và kế hoạch chi tiêu vốn 15,9 tỷ USD

Điểm chính

• Alliant Energy đã báo cáo lợi nhuận GAAP quý 3/2026 đạt 1,52 USD/cổ phiếu và thu hẹp dự báo EPS liên tục cả năm xuống 3,41-3,46 USD, thuộc nửa trên của khoảng dự báo ban đầu.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã đưa ra dự báo EPS liên tục năm 2027 ở mức 3,63-3,73 USD, tương đương khoảng mức tăng 8% so với điểm giữa của dự báo ban đầu năm 2026.
• Kế hoạch vốn giai đoạn 2027-2030 đã tăng 19% lên 15,9 tỷ USD, hỗ trợ mức tăng trưởng kép hàng năm dự phóng 13% về cơ sở tính giá cước cộng với chi phí xây dựng dở dang.
• Alliant Energy kỳ vọng tăng trưởng EPS hàng năm đạt ít nhất 8% từ năm 2027 đến năm 2030. Mục tiêu tăng trưởng dài hạn rộng hơn của công ty đã được nâng lên 6%-8%+.
• Năm trung tâm dữ liệu làm cơ sở cho kỳ vọng của ban lãnh đạo về tăng trưởng nhu cầu theo hợp đồng hơn 60% vào năm 2031. Ba địa điểm đại diện cho 3,4 GW phụ tải trung tâm dữ liệu đã cam kết, và công ty dự kiến có thêm khoảng 1 GW phụ tải lớn ký hợp đồng bổ sung trong vòng sáu tháng.
• Bộ Năng lượng Mỹ đã hoàn tất chương trình bảo lãnh khoản vay trị giá 5,1 tỷ USD với Alliant Energy. Ban lãnh đạo ước tính gói tài trợ 30 năm này có thể tạo ra khoản tiết kiệm tích lũy cho khách hàng lên tới 1,2 tỷ USD khi được giải ngân đầy đủ.

Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Mức tăng trưởng lợi nhuận liên tục trong quý 3 so với cùng kỳ năm trước được thúc đẩy bởi yêu cầu doanh thu cao hơn và chi phí vốn trong quá trình xây dựng (AFUDC) liên quan đến đầu tư tiện ích công cộng tại Iowa và Wisconsin. Các yếu tố khác đóng góp bao gồm thu nhập vốn cổ phần cao hơn từ các quỹ đầu tư mạo hiểm, doanh số bán điện bán lẻ đã điều chỉnh theo nhiệt độ tăng trưởng tốt hơn và đóng góp ban đầu từ phụ tải của trung tâm dữ liệu tại Iowa.

Nhu cầu thương mại và công nghiệp tiếp tục duy trì đặc biệt mạnh mẽ tại Wisconsin. Biên lợi nhuận mảng điện cũng nhận được đóng góp từ thời tiết là 0,05 USD/cổ phiếu, so với 0,03 USD/cổ phiếu trong quý cùng kỳ năm trước.

Những lợi ích này bị bù trừ một phần bởi chi phí vận hành và bảo dưỡng cao hơn gắn liền với sự tăng trưởng kinh doanh và việc mở rộng hệ thống phát điện, cũng như chi phí tài chính và chi phí khấu hao tăng do cơ sở tính giá cước gia tăng. Lợi ích về mặt thời điểm từ chi phí thuế thu nhập doanh nghiệp dự kiến sẽ đảo ngược trong quý 4 mà không ảnh hưởng đến kết quả cả năm.

Chương trình đầu tư vốn cập nhật bao gồm bổ sung 1,2 GW tuabin khí đốt tự nhiên và 200 MW hệ thống lưu trữ năng lượng. Danh mục đầu tư cũng bao gồm năng lượng tái tạo và hạ tầng phân phối điện, khí đốt.

Google đang sử dụng dịch vụ truyền tải theo tiến độ phụ tải đẩy nhanh tại Iowa. QTS Cedar Rapids dự kiến hoàn tất việc đưa hai tòa nhà đầu tiên vào vận hành thử nghiệm trong quý này, trong khi Meta dự kiến bắt đầu sử dụng dịch vụ truyền tải tại Wisconsin trong quý 1/2027.

Alliant Energy đã gia hạn kế hoạch ổn định giá cước điện bán lẻ cơ bản của IPL cho đến cuối năm 2030. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các khách hàng tiêu thụ phụ tải lớn sẽ trả toàn bộ chi phí phục vụ họ và phần đầu tư hệ thống cần thiết tương ứng, thay vì chuyển các chi phí đó sang cho các khách hàng hiện hữu.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo dự báo EPS liên tục năm 2027 đạt 3,63-3,73 USD và hướng tới mục tiêu cổ tức hàng năm 2,25 USD/cổ phiếu. Tăng trưởng cổ tức đang được điều chỉnh ở mức vừa phải để giúp tài trợ cho chương trình đầu tư vốn lớn hơn. Công ty tiếp tục mục tiêu tỷ lệ chi trả cổ tức là 60%-70%, với kết quả dự kiến gần mức cận dưới trong giai đoạn đầu tư tăng cao.

Alliant Energy dự phóng tổng lợi nhuận cho cổ đông đạt hơn 11% mỗi năm trong giai đoạn 2027-2030, dựa trên khuôn khổ tăng trưởng lợi nhuận và cổ tức của công ty.

Công ty dự kiến huy động thêm tối đa 200 triệu USD nợ dài hạn tại IPL và tối đa 300 triệu USD tại WPL trong thời gian còn lại của năm 2026. Đối với năm 2027, công ty dự kiến phát hành tối đa 2,8 tỷ USD, bao gồm tối đa 1 tỷ USD tại Alliant Energy Finance, 1,3 tỷ USD tại IPL và 500 triệu USD tại WPL.

Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ có quyết định về biểu giá phụ tải lớn của Wisconsin và đơn xin phê duyệt giá cước cho khách hàng cá nhân thuộc dự án thứ hai của Google tại Cedar Rapids trong nửa đầu năm 2027. Công ty cũng lên kế hoạch nộp đơn xin phê duyệt giá cước khách hàng QTS Clinton trong nửa đầu năm 2027 và thực hiện xem xét giá cước điện và khí đốt cơ bản tại Wisconsin cho các năm thử nghiệm dự phóng 2028 và 2029.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Giấy phép của địa phương đã được bổ sung vào tiêu chí ngưỡng của công ty để đưa các dự án phụ tải lớn vào triển vọng tài chính, bên cạnh các hợp đồng dịch vụ đã ký kết và khả năng xác định rõ về đất đai, truyền tải và phát điện.
• Khoảng cách giữa CAGR đầu tư dự phóng 13% và mức tăng trưởng EPS trên 8% chủ yếu phản ánh khoảng 375 điểm cơ bản pha loãng từ việc phát hành cổ phần và khoảng 50 điểm cơ bản từ việc tái tài trợ nợ đáo hạn của công ty mẹ và mảng ngoài tiện ích.
• Dự kiến chi phí vận hành và bảo dưỡng, khấu hao và chi phí tài chính sẽ cao hơn khi hệ thống phát điện và cơ sở tính giá cước mở rộng.
• Các cơ hội phụ tải bổ sung sẽ chỉ được đưa vào kế hoạch vốn sau khi đáp ứng các tiêu chí lập kế hoạch của công ty. Tiến độ dự án phụ thuộc vào sự gia tăng phụ tải của khách hàng, việc cấp phép và khả năng đáp ứng nguồn lực.
• Nhu cầu công suất không thể cắt giảm ban đầu của Mesabi Metallics đã được đưa vào kế hoạch, nhưng các giai đoạn tương lai sẽ cần thêm nguồn lực. Ban lãnh đạo chưa định lượng nhu cầu tiềm năng của dự án này.

Điểm nhấn phiên Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo chỉ ra rằng mỗi 1 GW phụ tải bổ sung có thể yêu cầu khoảng 2 tỷ - 3 tỷ USD chi phí đầu tư vốn bổ sung, tập trung chủ yếu vào các nguồn công suất. Đối với 1 gigawatt bổ sung dự kiến được ký hợp đồng trong vòng sáu tháng, việc gia tăng phụ tải nhiều khả năng sẽ bắt đầu vào khoảng năm 2029-2030, với một số khoản chi tiêu cho phát điện bằng khí đốt có liên quan có thể kéo dài sang giai đoạn 2030-2031 và xa hơn.

Công ty cho biết dấu "+" trong triển vọng tăng trưởng EPS trên 8% có nghĩa là mức tăng trưởng ít nhất 8% trong mỗi năm từ 2027 đến 2030. Những năm có chi tiêu vốn lớn hơn có thể mang lại mức tăng trưởng cao hơn.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chi phí đầu tư vốn bổ sung trong tương lai sẽ yêu cầu tỷ lệ cổ phần phổ thông mới thấp hơn so với khung 40%-50% trước đây. Lý do là dòng tiền sẽ mạnh lên khi phụ tải của các trung tâm dữ liệu đã ký hợp đồng gia tăng.

Alliant Energy cho biết các ưu đãi thuế củng cố niềm tin của công ty trong việc duy trì kế hoạch ổn định giá cước cơ bản tại Iowa đến năm 2030. Các dự án lưu trữ năng lượng bằng pin có thể đủ điều kiện nhận ưu đãi thuế đầu tư từ 30% đến 50%, tùy thuộc vào điều kiện đáp ứng về cộng đồng năng lượng và thành phần nội địa.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp báo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Thank you for holding, and welcome to Alliant Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Susan Gille, Investor Relations Manager at Alliant Energy.

We are currently experiencing technical disputes. Please pause for a brief hold.

We are experiencing technical difficulties and have placed the call on hold. Please stay on the line, the event will begin shortly.

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Susan Gille

Good morning, and thank you for joining Alliant Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Joining me today are Lisa Barton, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Robert Durian, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will have time to take questions from the investment community.

Last night, we issued a news release announcing our third quarter 2026 results, narrowed our 2026 full year earnings guidance, initiated 2027 earnings guidance and dividend target and provided our updated capital expenditure and financing plans through 2030.

That release, along with our earnings presentation will be referenced during today's call and is available on the Investors section of our website at alliantenergy.com.

Before we begin, please note that today's remarks and responses will include forward-looking statements. These statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Those risks are described in last night's earnings release and in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. In addition, this presentation contains references to ongoing earnings per share, which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Reconciliations to GAAP results are provided in the earnings release available on our website. At this point, I will turn the call over to Lisa.

Lisa Barton

Good morning, everyone. We are pleased to share strong third quarter and year-to-date results and measurable progress against our growth strategy. We have also updated our outlook for the remainder of this year and 2027, refreshed our capital expenditure and financing plan and accelerated and extended our earnings growth expectation plans through 2030.

Alliant Energy is experiencing extraordinary momentum, fueled by rising customer demand and economic development. As the communities we serve continue to grow and thrive reliable, affordable energy is more essential than ever to their long-term success.

We are operating from a position of strength, building on our consistent track record of growth and delivering dependable results our investors can count on. That strength is rooted in the Alliant Energy Advantage, constructive regulatory jurisdictions, flexible resource planning, practical and pragmatic leadership at the state and community levels and an organization focused on unlocking the potential of our customers and communities while keeping affordability at the forefront.

Today's update shows how that advantage delivers dependable growth, benefits customers and provides investment opportunities beyond our current plan. First, we have greater visibility into our growth outlook. 5 data centers support our expectation for greater than 60% contracted demand growth by 2031.

Three are actively under construction. Google is taking transmission service with a load ramp consistent with the accelerated schedule we filed with the Iowa Commission. QTS Cedar Rapids expects to complete the commissioning of their first 2 buildings later this quarter. And in Wisconsin, [ Meta ] is taking distribution service with an expectation to take transmission service Q1 '27.

As a reminder, we proactively identify locations where large loads can interconnect without significant incremental transmission investment, supporting speed to power, helping customer affordability reducing execution risk and strengthening our competitive position. We have maintained a high bar for including new opportunities in our financial outlook.

Assigned electric service agreement remains important, but we also require clear visibility into land, transmission, generation. And going forward, we are also including local permitting as part of the higher bar.

As large load projects have increased in scale and complexity, we are raising the bar, not just on what we include in our disclosures, but on the river behind it. Our objective is not to present the biggest number, but to provide investors with the greatest confidence in the executability of our growth.

That disciplined approach in determining when to include projects in our CapEx plan is what we mean by dependable growth investors can count on. In the first quarter, we announced an executed electric service agreement of new demand. We are pleased to share that the agreement supports Google's expansion at its Cedar Rapids Iowa sites.

That opportunity has now met our planning threshold and is one of the projects supporting our refresh resource plan. We are also seeing progress across a diversified set of load opportunities beyond large data centers, including edge data centers and manufacturing expansion in Wisconsin and Iowa. Based on our discussions with [ Mesabi Metallics, ] the company expects to locate its plans in our service territory in Lee County.

As is consistent with this industry, a significant portion of its load is anticipated to be curtailable. Consistent with our approach to grow at the pace of our customers, we align our capacity resources with customers' non-curtailable needs. [ Masabi's ] initial capacity needs are reflected in our refreshed plan.

Any future phases of this project would require additional resources. Second, our growth is translating directly into infrastructure investment and earnings growth. Our refreshed capital investment plan through 2030 is 19% higher than last year's plan. The diversified plan includes natural gas generation, renewables, energy storage and grid investments that strengthen reliability and position our system for growing customer demand.

This increases our expected investment growth rate to 13% and supports an acceleration of our long-term earnings growth rate to 8% plus from 2027 through 2030. Just as importantly, customers benefit from how we structure this growth. Our commitments are clear, existing customers should benefit from large load growth, not subsidize it.

Large load customers will pay the full cost of serving them and their share of the system investments they require. In Iowa, we're pleased to announce a 1-year extension of IPLs retail electric base rate stability plan through the end of 2030, giving customers another year of greater certainty about this portion of their electric bill.

At the same time, we expect to continue investing in our business and earning our authorized returns throughout this period. This extension is a tangible best-in-class example of driving affordability. And demonstrates that base rate stability, continued investment and financial performance can advance together.

In Wisconsin, economic development creates an opportunity to spread fixed system costs across a broader customer base, and our recently filed large low tariff establishes a consistent and transparent framework for future customers.

In addition to advancing Iowa's electric base rate stability with the 1-year extension, our financing strategy directly supports affordability in both Iowa and Wisconsin. Earlier this week, the U.S. Department of Energy announced it had closed on a $5.1 billion guaranteed loan program with Alliant Energy.

Over the life of the 30-year loans when fully funded, we estimate up to $1.2 billion of cumulative customer savings when compared to traditional debt financing. This federally backed financing helps lower the cost of building generation and critical energy infrastructure our customers depend on, while strengthening the grid.

Finally, our pipeline extends well beyond our current plan. To date, we have 3 sites, which totaled 3.4 gigawatts of load growth. Across our service territory, we are focused on turning prospects into projects. We expect this work to produce approximately 1 additional gigawatt of contracted large load within the next 6 months, creating meaningful upside to our current capital plan.

Consistent with our commitment to raise the bar, we would update our CapEx plan accordingly. Taken together, these updates demonstrate the Alliant Energy Advantage in action, the ability to convert economic development into durable growth while driving affordability, strengthening reliability and earning our authorized returns.

Before I turn the call over to Robert, I want to recognize our employees from our field teams responding to storms and maintaining our diverse generation fleet to those advancing critical projects and supporting customers.

Their skill, dedication and care drives our progress. I am proud of this team and grateful for all they do. We have built strong momentum we have greater visibility into our long-term growth, and we remain focused on disciplined execution, our investors and customers can count on.

I'll now turn the call over to Robert.

Robert Durian

Thank you, Lisa, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, we reported third quarter 2026 GAAP earnings of $1.52 per share. Our third quarter and year-to-date ongoing earnings demonstrate the strong financial and operational progress our teams have delivered across the business. .

As shown on Slide 8, the year-over-year third quarter increase in ongoing earnings reflects the consistent execution of our strategy, primarily driven by higher revenue requirements in AFUDC and associated with capital investments across our Iowa and Wisconsin utilities, timing of income tax expense, which will reverse in the fourth quarter and have no impact on full year results.

Higher equity earnings from our corporate venture fund investments, $0.05 per share impact on electric margins from above normal [indiscernible] temperatures this year compared to $0.03 per share in the same period last year and higher temperature-normalized retail electric sales, reflecting continued commercial and industrial strength, particularly in Wisconsin and early contributions from ramping data center loads in Iowa.

These positive drivers were partially offset by the expected costs of supporting our growth, including higher other operations and maintenance expenses related to the growth of our business and expanded generation fleet, and higher financing and depreciation costs associated with our growing rate base.

Based on our strong performance through the first 9 months and improved visibility into the fourth quarter, we are narrowing our 2026 full year ongoing earnings guidance to the top half of our original guidance range, which is $3.41 to $3.46 per share.

Yesterday, we announced our 2027 earnings guidance range and dividend target, as shown on Slide 9. Together, they reinforce our confidence in continuing to deliver an attractive total shareholder return which is projected to be greater than 11% per year over the 2027 to 2030 planning period.

Our 2027 full year ongoing earnings guidance of $3.63 to $3.73 per share represents 8% growth over the midpoint of our original 2026 earnings guidance. Our 2027 annual common stock dividend target is $2.25 per share, a 5% increase over our 2026 annual dividend target.

We are moderating the pace of dividend growth to help fund our larger capital plan efficiently. We will continue to target a payout ratio of 60% to 70% and expect to operate near the lower end of that range during this period of elevated investment opportunity.

As shown on Slide 10, the strength of our progress supports an increase in our long-term earnings growth expectations. We raised our long-term annual earnings growth target to 6% to 8% plus, an increased and extended our expectations to 8% plus from 2027 through 2030, reflecting our confidence in the durability of our large load opportunities, driving our investment growth, the revenue and cash flow contributions from data centers ramping into the plan and our continued operational excellence.

As shown on Slides 11 and 12, our refreshed capital investment plan for 2027 through 2030 totaled $15.9 billion, a 19% increase above our prior 4-year plan. This translates to a 13% compounded annual growth rate in rate base plus construction work in progress, up from 12% last year.

The incremental investments from last year supporting this growth include 1.2 gigawatts of additional natural gas combustion turbines to mid- growing customer energy demand and an additional 200 megawatts of energy storage to support system resiliency and integration of new load growth.

The difference between the projected 13% CAGR and our earnings growth target through 2030 of 8% plus primarily reflects approximately 375 basis points of estimated dilution from equity issuances and approximately 50 basis points of estimated dilution from refinancing maturing nonutility and parent debt.

Our capital plan takes a disciplined approach to investing in customer-focused infrastructure including natural gas generation, renewables, energy storage and electric and gas distribution. We remain confident in our ability to execute this diversified plan responsibly.

Our expectation to convert additional large load growth to incremental capital expenditures in the plan, create substantial further investment upside. We will incorporate those opportunities into future capital plan updates as projects satisfy our criteria for inclusion.

To fund this larger capital plan, we have developed an efficient and disciplined financing strategy through 2030, summarized on Slide 13. This financing plan maintains a strong balance sheet throughout the planning period.

Our execution to date gives us confidence that we can finance this growth, while maintaining financial flexibility and protecting customer value. This increasingly efficient financing mix is supported by a combination of growing cash from operations as data center loads ramp in accordance with contract terms.

Continued strong execution of our tax credit monetization program with approximately $2 billion of tax credits expected over the planning period. Benefits from the Department of Energy's recent commitments of approximately $5 billion which provides lower cost, long-dated and flexible financing and reduces cost for customers, hybrid financing instruments that provide equity credit at a lower after-tax cost than common equity and disciplined common equity issuances.

Equity funding represents approximately 40% of our incremental capital expenditures at the low end of our previously stated range of 40% to 50%. Our proactive execution of equity has already secured approximately $1.1 billion of the $2.7 billion of common equity in the updated 4-year financing plan through forward equity agreements.

This effectively addresses our expected equity needs through the first half of 2028 and provides meaningful flexibility as we continue to grow. We are confident with our ability to execute the remaining equity requirements over the planning period with settlements weighted toward the next several years and moderating thereafter.

We expect to continue using ATM programs while retaining the flexibility to act opportunistically when market conditions are favorable. Turning to Slide 14. We've outlined our remaining debt financing activity for 2026, along with our plans for 2027.

For the remainder of 2026, we expect to complete up to $200 million of additional long-term debt at IPL and up to $300 million at WPL. Looking ahead to 2027, we expect to issue up to $2.8 billion of long-term debt, including up to $1 billion at Alliant Energy Finance for the parent, up to $1.3 billion at IPL and up to $500 million at WPL.

Across both years, we anticipate financing at our 2 utilities to include funding through the recently approved U.S. Department of Energy Loan Program. Finally, I'll provide an update on the regulatory initiatives shown on Slides 15 and 16, along with our planned future filings. We continue to advance this work with transparent and constructive engagement in both states.

We recently filed a large load tariff in Wisconsin and an ICR application for a second Google project in Cedar Rapids and expect decisions back on both in the first half of '27. Looking ahead to our planned regulatory filings, in conjunction with our updated capital expenditure plan, we expect to make additional regulatory filings for energy resources that enhance reliability, further diversify our portfolio and meet growing customer energy needs.

We expect to file an individual customer rate application for the QTS Clinton data center in the first half of 2027. And in the spring, we expect to file the next Wisconsin retail electric and gas base rate review for forward test years 2028 and 2029.

We are proud of the progress reflected in these results. Our teams are executing with discipline. Our financing strategy is well positioned and the opportunities ahead reinforce our confidence in delivering the strategy.

I will now turn the call back to Lisa.

Lisa Barton

Thank you, Robert. Today's update demonstrates the Alliant Energy Advantage, disciplined execution, accelerating growth and greater value for our customers and shareowners. Our team's strong execution positions us to deliver and we are excited about the opportunities ahead. We look forward to sharing our progress and speaking with many of you at the EEI Financial Conference. I'll now turn the call back to the operator for Q&A.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Nicholas Campanella with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Phần hỏi đáp

Nicholas Campanella

Appreciate the time. I just wanted to kind of confirm, thanks to the new growth rate outlook and a clear acceleration of rate base and load here. Is '27 kind of the new base to grow 8% plus off of? And then just taking into account the dilution, how are you framing the plus? Can you be above 9% in this plan?

Robert Durian

Yes, sure, Nick. You could either take the midpoint of the original guidance for 2026, which is 341. What are the new guidance for 2027 or 360 and build it off of either one of those base amounts and then for your second question regarding the Plus side, think of the Plus line is representing earnings growth of at least 8% each year over the 2027 through 2030 planning period. .

We'll probably see some periods of higher earnings growth in that minimum 8% and think of that is usually in line with years where we have some higher capital expenditures. .

Nicholas Campanella

Okay. And then maybe just -- it sounds like on the additional sites that you're working on right now, you're being very scrutinous in terms of having the local permitting, land control, the transmission studies. Like how would you kind of compare the 2 to 4 gigs in advance versus the Penn sites that you're in active discussion with? Like what does the 10 sites equate to in a gigawatt number?

Lisa Barton

Yes. So we're not specifically labeling each of these sites. The way to really think about it each site is a little bit unique, I will say this. it's a minimum of several hundred megawatts going up higher than that. The size does vary.

And really, what we were trying to do here is make sure that what we're giving you is growth that you can count on. We've always made sure that we've got the that our developers have the land is the line of sight with respect to land that they have land control that they're not speculative.

We want to make sure that we have an appreciation for the load ramp. That helps with making sure we can work with both ATC and ITC on getting the transmission access that they need and our ability in our -- on the generation side. We have an extreme level of confidence in our ability the generation that we need. I think what you're seeing is that with respect to timing, these data centers are really engaging with the communities, and we're really pleased with that.

There's a greater level of transparency. That's always been national level, the pushback that you've heard. And this level of engagement is really getting communities to understand and appreciate the value of these data centers.

I'll give you a little bit of an example here in Clinton. So QTS, for example, has been really talking about the property tax benefit, and that's in that possibly a $60 million a year range.

And as a point of reference, the second largest company in terms of a property tax contribution is about $5 million a year. So taking that time to invest in these dialogues is important. And so what we will be doing is if there's an ESA, that signed, you will update that on a quarterly basis.

But the load and the CapEx is something that we would update at either EEI or AGA. And quite frankly, with the future that we see, we would be disappointed if we didn't have another gigawatt in the next months. And with that, we would be disappointed if we weren't updating our CapEx at AGA.

Nicholas Campanella

That's very clear. I appreciate that. And just to clarify, the 10 is on top of the 2.4 gigawatts or it's partially reflected in that?

Lisa Barton

Look at it this way. So from the 3 sites that we currently have, there's 3.4 gigawatts worth of data centers that have committed to those existing 3 sites. And there's additional growth opportunities within those sites. So then think about it, there's another 7 more.

It's been one of those questions...

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bernice Singh with Bank of America.

Unknown Analyst

I guess first, you mentioned the 1 gigawatt in 6 months. I guess how are you thinking about the next -- for the next few that capital intensity to serve that, just given MISO accreditation changes and then the generation you announced with the previous ESA in Q1? And how do you think about the timing of that in terms of -- does it require the capacity in parallel? Or does that kind of depend on the curtailability?

Robert Durian

Yes, I think of the capacity requirements of this, we always try and line up the generation capacity with the load ramps to be consistent with ensuring that we have the capacity ready to go and we have the cash flows lined up for from when we end the construction cycle with the low ramp.

So yes, what we tried to signal to folks is, think of our capital expenditure plan updates will largely be for every gigawatt of additional loads, you're probably going to see somewhere in the neighborhood of $2 billion to $3 billion of additional CapEx.

And again, that's largely because we're focused only on the capacity resources need to serve these customers. we may have further opportunities in the future to be able to provide energy resources, but think of that as kind of upside further out the plan than what we're targeting right here.

Unknown Analyst

Okay. And then just on the large low tariff in Wisconsin. How should we think about the proposal there and the economic benefits to existing customers and potentially differences to the previous ICR filings or similarities?

Lisa Barton

We really complements the previous ICR filings and what it does is it puts that umbrella around it, consistent with what the commission was looking for? And in essence, just provides that level of clarity, but we do not expect any differences.

We do not have to wait for approval by the commission. The commission was very clear with us that if we have another data center to continue to move forward with that and to notify them of those provisions, those ICR positions.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith from Jefferies.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Appreciate time and nicely done as always, I got to hand it to you. Maybe picking it up on just the offense side of this equation, right? You talked about an incremental customer announcement here. How do you think about that translating to rate case stay out maybe in Iowa beyond this 2030 timeline, again, to the extent in which this would be incremental savings?

And then related, how do you think about the pathway for data center load to enable maybe parallel Wisconsin stay-outs here? And maybe any further related commentary about Crowley and some of the more term commentary of late, if there's anything that you care to share as of yet?

Lisa Barton

And you got quite a few number of questions sitting there, Julian, I applaud you on that. First of all, we're super excited to be able to announce the extension of our rate stability plan that we have in Iowa. I think that, that has really demonstrated attractiveness of the jurisdiction for other economic developments.

As you alluded to, we have [ Mesabi ] and which we're very, very excited about that. Actually, [ Raj ] and I had an opportunity to go and tour their state-of-the-art mine in Minnesota and just great progress on that.

What I will say about [ Mesabi ] is that we have firm demand to secure their initial phase of growth in the plan that we've announced to the extent that they make further investments we would be updating our capacity needs.

And as I mentioned in my talking points, we are focused on their non-curtailable. This is a type of load that's very curtailable, that's just the nature of the sector.

And so what we are going to make sure that we're doing is building to support their non-curtailble capacity needs. In terms of what the outlook is and what we'll do on a constant basis is look to calculate what we can expect in terms of continuation of the stay out.

We certainly never want to be in a situation where we overpromise and under deliver. So as we continue through the time line, we'll be evaluating that at EEI and so forth. With respect to Wisconsin, our rate review proceeding will be next year, early next year.

We continue to see that data center growth really helps to drive affordability, taking those fixed costs and spreading it out over a broader base. There was a recent CSI paper that was issued in Iowa that just cited those benefits. So we look forward to having those discussions with all whoever actually move forward with the commission.

We've always had practical and pragmatic leadership at level, while we continue to feel that when we show everyone the facts, but behind the numbers that the support for data centers will be there.

It really speaks for itself. And I do think that, that's what sets us apart. I mean, we have best-in-class solutions for affordability. I mean, where else can you have 0% rate increases in this country.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Indeed, no, it does speak to it. If I can follow up a little bit on the other side of the ledger here on the cost side. Just is this more of a structural thing or more of a pull forward on the O&M, just to the move to the 5%? And then second embedded one.

How do you think about derisking the procurement and EPC side, right? You guys were as thoughtful. We're seeing some peers of yours move in new and novel ways. How do you think about just that side of the equation as you announced this uptick here?

Robert Durian

Yes. Julien, first off with the O&M expenses. Think of that as we're very focused on ensuring that we have strong reliability for our customers. So we're investing more money in the energy delivery side of the business and also in the generation side of the business, we know important the generation facilities are to meeting the capacity requirements and the growing demand of our customers.

So we're investing more money, as you can imagine, as we're building more generation. Those costs are going to continue to increase because we have more facilities to be able to maintain from a pull-forward perspective, not significant amounts.

So we've actually had, I would say, fairly neutral overall temperatures to date for the year. And so we're just managing the business based on kind of our original projections for the year.

Lisa Barton

And Julien, to your question with respect to how we're managing from a CapEx standpoint. Obviously, it's not our first rodeo. We've been doing this for a long time successfully. We build in contingencies into our projects, and we're very aware of the market conditions where we're building these facilities. So that's all tied together. High level of confidence in our ability to execute.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith

Got it. And just one quick clarification here. '26 or '27 base -- or I mean it's slightly different outcomes. It doesn't matter. You can read either way. Clarify the next question earlier?

Robert Durian

Yes, you're right, Julien. The math works the same, either 341 off of 2026 or 360 '27, you'll get to the same point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg Thalmann.

Paul Fremont

I guess my first question is, is [ Mesabi ] included now in the 2 to 4 gigawatts in advanced discussion. And are they also a part of the 1 gigawatt that's likely in the next 6 months?

Lisa Barton

So the 2 to 4 that we've talked about, and it continues to be data center growth. So Mesabi is not included in that. And it's not included in what we anticipate for the additional gigawatt. [indiscernible]

Paul Fremont

And then are you able to put sort of a capacity size amount to the potential Mesabi demand?

Lisa Barton

So not at this time. I mean, when you think about -- we've had active conversations with them. It is ultimately their call and their decision on when to talk about the size of that plant. So that's very consistent with what we do with all of our other customers. But again, we do have the firm demand, they're non-curtailable factored into our plan for their first phase.

Paul Fremont

And then should we assume that you've added 400 megawatts to the 2 to 4 because in the past, that 2 to 4 included Google too?

Robert Durian

No, I think of that -- that was part of the 400 megawatts that we announced earlier this year. It was part of the 2% to 4%.

Lisa Barton

Really 1 point.

Paul Fremont

So it's like 1.6% to 2.6%, I think that's it for me.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho. I appreciate the update.

Anthony Crowdell

Just 2 quick ones. I guess, for Iowa, the ability to earn your authorized ROE to the rate freeze, I guess, integrate free through you talk to us how much depends maybe on tax credits or flexing O&M? And how much cushion do you have if you start to see O&M depreciation run a little ahead of plan.

Robert Durian

Good question, Anthony. So think of it as when you look at the capital expenditure plan that we've announced here as far as the refresh plan, there's about 1.2 gigawatts of energy storage built into the plan. And think of that as driving a pretty significant amount of tax credit for us. It gives us a high level of confidence to be able to navigate the plan in any modifications we might see either sales or O&M expenses or other costs through the 2030 period, and that's what gave us the confidence to be able to extend it out to that time period. .

Anthony Crowdell

Got it. And then I think Nick had asked this question earlier. The '27 midpoint of 368 is about 7% above the narrowed midpoint of '26. And I guess what has to change, if I think about 20 to 30. What has to change in that to get to the 8% plus? Is it low data center load ramp? Or is it rate base growth? Or what's changing at now? I pivot from 7% to 8% plus in 2 to 3 years?

Robert Durian

Yes, Anthony, we think about it is we're starting from the midpoint of the original guidance for 2026, that was the 341. If you build 8% off of that, that equals roughly the 368 that you're referencing from a 2027 time period.

Think of the biggest driver as to how high we may get into the earnings growth is largely dependent upon the capital expenditure plans. We've obviously updated the refresh plan to show the $15.9 billion that we've now over 4 years, and we continue to work on what I'll call capital upside for different opportunities, including the additional load growth that we may see from the data center prospects that we have.

And then we've got some additional things that we're pursuing, like wind repowering of the things there might be additions to the plan. And so if you watch the CapEx, that should be a good indicator as to where we're going to be in the growth rate going forward.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank.

Andrew Weisel

Everyone. I'll throw in congrats to the brewers. I know you're not serving Milwaukee, but that's a source of statewide project.

Lisa Barton

No, we were all watching.

Andrew Weisel

A lot of info today. Congrats on some good updates, but a couple of things I wanted to clarify. So first, on the CAGR. You've got 2 figures out there. It sounds like you're very clearly guiding to 8% or better. So what exactly does the 6% to 8% referred to? Where would it be less than 8%?

Robert Durian

Yes. Think of that as a much longer-term CAGR for us, but we have great visibility into the 8% plus from the 2027 through 2030 time period. And kind of our vantage point is we're going to continue to work on trying to extend that and hopefully increase that over time as we continue to build in what I call future ways of upside capital to the plan. .

So I would focus more on the 8% plus right now from the 2027 through 2030 time period, and then we'll continue to update you guys as we get further along with the upside that we have largely related to the load growth that we're pursuing right now.

Andrew Weisel

It's like 2031 and beyond is 6% to 8%, but you're going to work on making that more 8%-plus continued. Is that the way to think of it?

Robert Durian

That's a great way to think about it, but have a pretty high level of confidence that we're going to be able to keep that more 8% plus going into the future.

Andrew Weisel

Okay. Great. Then on equity, the change in equity, you show as 40% financing of incremental CapEx, but the new outlook is $2.7 billion compared to the old outlook of $2.4 billion that's only an increase of $300 million versus $2.5 billion of CapEx, that's about 12%. So it's a great thing to have less equity than 40%, but help me bridge that gap.

Robert Durian

Sure, Andrew. I think there's about $600 million or $700 million that we're going to actually execute here before the end of the year. And so we've built that into the plan. So when you add that $700 million to the $2.7 billion that's going to happen from $27 million to $30 million, you actually get up to $3.4 billion of future equity. So it's just a matter of the timing difference between the base year you're starting with. If you start with '26, it's actually $3.4 billion.

Andrew Weisel

Got it. Okay. So there's a lot still coming before year-end Okay. And then one last one on the IPL data. The additional year, it sounds like you're putting cash credits are those coming in better than you expected? Or is the additional year more a function of the DOE loan savings or better underlying demand trends? Or is it all of the above? You keep pointing to the tax credits, but I thought those were kind of well understood and expected.

Robert Durian

Great question. So think of it in a couple of different things that we're seeing as far as benefits more recently. One is we continue to layer in more energy storage. So we added another couple of hundred megawatts of energy storage to the most recent capital expenditure plan. .

The other thing is I'm really proud of the team. They're really focused on trying to figure out how they can maximize the tax credits. So most often with like a battery storage project, you'll get 30% baseline ITC, but then you do have the opportunity if you locate those into certain energy communities, you can get an additional 10% credit and then more recently, we've been focused on trying to figure out if we can get to domestic content.

So if we can source enough of the equipment for the projects from domestic sources, you get an additional 10%. And so you can get anywhere from 30% to 50%. And we see a better pathway to be able to get to those higher percentages for some of the more recent projects that we put into the plan. So we're pretty excited and we're pretty proud of the team focused on actually we know how it's going to help our customers in the future.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aditya Gandhi with Wolfe Research.

Aditya Gandhi

Lisa and Rob. Robert, I want to go back to the 1 gigawatt equals to $2 billion to $3 billion of CapEx of some that you gave us and tie that a little bit into the 1 gigawatt that you will expect to contract in the next 6 months.

Can you give some color on how much of that we should expect within the current planning period versus after the current planning period? And is 40% a good rule of come for thinking about the equity content for the additional CapEx

Robert Durian

Yes, great question. So yes, when you think about that next gigawatt loads, the ramp rate from that is actually going to start more in that 2930 time frame. .

And so we really are targeting most likely the capacity resources available for that later in the plan. So I think of that as more in the maybe 2030, '31 time frame when it comes to gas generation. And so you'll see a mix.

Some of it will be in the 27 to 30 time frame, but then there will also be some of that CapEx that will actually be in the 31 and beyond time frame. So it's a little bit of a mix of both.

And to your second question, we've talked in my prepared remarks about the impact of equity dilution on the incremental capital expenditures and the growth rate of the investment CAGR and how the difference between that and the growth rate the key drivers there.

Like I said, we're equity dilution as well as the refinancing dilution. I think 1 thing that's really important for you guys to understand is as we look further out into the future, we actually think going forward, the investments, the incremental CapEx that we have is actually going to be funded with a relatively lower level of new common equity than our previous guidance of 40% to 50%.

So we'll update that more when we provide future updates as far as incremental CapEx, but you should probably expect us to do better than that 40% to 50% in the future.

Lisa Barton

And one of the things that I would point out is, as I mentioned, we would be disappointed if we were not at AGA updating our CapEx plan. And what you would see there would be a the resource plan associated with serving load. So keep in mind, we are always looking at this on a portfolio basis. So certainly, stay tuned.

Aditya Gandhi

That's super helpful. And just to clarify, Robert, the equity would be lower than the 40% to 50% just because of higher cash flow from the data centers as you get to the out of your current plan and beyond that?

Robert Durian

Yes, exactly. So when you think about the ramping of the load growth, obviously, the cash flows are going to ramp with that as well. And so we peak out in that 2031 time frame with the load that we got in the plan as we layer additional load in there. We see some stronger cash flows in the latter part of the plan.

And that's what Jesus the confidence that we may not need as much incremental new common equity with the incremental CapEx that will layer into the future.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time.

Susan Gille

With no more questions, this concludes Alliant Energy's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. A replay will be available on our investor website. Thank you for your continued support of Alliant Energy, and please feel free to contact me with any follow-up questions.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect. Thank you for joining Alliance Energy Corporation's Q3 2026 Earnings Conference Call. The line will disconnect automatically.