Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của Impinj (PI): Doanh thu kỷ lục và nhu cầu IC đầu cuối tăng mạnh

Các điểm chính

• Impinj đã báo cáo doanh thu quý 3/2026 kỷ lục đạt 112,1 triệu USD, tăng 17% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và 3% so với quý trước, mà không bao gồm doanh thu từ cấp bản quyền trong quý.
• Doanh thu chip IC điểm cuối đạt mức kỷ lục 97,3 triệu USD, tăng 24% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Nếu loại trừ 17 triệu USD doanh thu từ cấp bản quyền trong quý 2, doanh thu sản phẩm chip IC điểm cuối tăng 23% so với quý trước.
• Nhu cầu được hỗ trợ bởi dòng chip M800, việc chuyển đổi ASIC tùy chỉnh tại một khách hàng chuỗi cung ứng và hậu cần, hoạt động bán lẻ duy trì đà tăng trưởng tốt, các tài khoản trọng điểm và động lực từ Gen2X.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự báo doanh thu quý 4 đạt 104 triệu - 107 triệu USD, tương ứng với mức tăng trưởng 14% so với cùng kỳ ở điểm giữa của khoảng dự báo, mặc dù doanh thu từ cả chip IC điểm cuối và hệ thống dự kiến sẽ giảm so với quý trước.
• Công suất bán dẫn công đoạn sau (back-end) vẫn thắt chặt ở các bước hậu xử lý dùng chung. Impinj có kế hoạch tiếp tục đẩy mạnh nâng công suất trong ít nhất hai quý tới và dự kiến chi tiêu vốn sẽ tăng trong quý 1/2027.
• Phần mềm vẫn đang ở giai đoạn thử nghiệm (beta) và chưa tạo ra doanh thu đáng kể. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến các phiên bản thương mại hóa chính thức đầu tiên sẽ ra mắt trong vòng vài tháng tới, trong khi đóng góp doanh thu ban đầu trong năm 2027 dự kiến sẽ ở mức khiêm tốn.

Kết quả Tài chính Cốt lõi

Trừ khi có tuyên bố rõ ràng khác, các chỉ số về khả năng sinh lời được thảo luận trong cuộc họp đều là chỉ số non-GAAP.

Kết quả Hoạt động Kinh doanh và Vận hành

Kết quả kinh doanh chip IC điểm cuối được dẫn dắt bởi nhu cầu đối với M800, việc chuyển đổi ASIC tùy chỉnh tại một khách hàng người dùng cuối lớn trong ngành chuỗi cung ứng và hậu cần, cùng sự tăng trưởng mạnh mẽ tại một khách hàng bán lẻ châu Âu. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết lượng đơn đặt hàng chip IC điểm cuối trong quý 3 vẫn mạnh mẽ, với tỷ lệ đơn đặt hàng trên doanh thu (book-to-bill) vượt mức 1, trong khi một số khách hàng đã bắt đầu đặt hàng cho quý 1/2027.

Doanh thu chip IC đầu đọc vượt kỳ vọng của công ty và là dòng sản phẩm tăng trưởng nhanh nhất, nhờ nhu cầu từ các doanh nghiệp đối với thiết bị đầu đọc đối tác. Impinj dự kiến doanh thu chip IC điểm cuối và chip IC đầu đọc trong quý 4 sẽ tăng trưởng mạnh so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, bao gồm cả sự trở lại của doanh thu khiêm tốn từ dòng chip IC điểm cuối chuyên dụng.

Doanh thu mảng hệ thống được hưởng lợi từ sự tăng trưởng diện rộng ở các dòng sản phẩm đầu đọc, cổng kết nối và các dòng sản phẩm khác. Các tài khoản trọng điểm hiện đóng góp hơn 20% tổng doanh thu trên toàn bộ nền tảng Impinj. Tuy nhiên, các khách hàng này dự kiến sẽ giảm hàng tồn kho đầu đọc và cổng kết nối trong quý 4, trong khi thời điểm triển khai cho một dự án doanh nghiệp đã dời sang năm 2027.

Trong các ứng dụng ngành thực phẩm, Impinj đã có thêm một khách hàng lớn mới trong lĩnh vực bổ sung hàng tồn kho và một khách hàng khác trong quản lý tồn kho. Ban lãnh đạo đã nhấn mạnh chương trình thử nghiệm tại mảng bánh tươi của Kroger, giúp đếm hàng tồn kho nhanh hơn gần 70%, giảm 50% chất thải, tăng doanh số khoảng 200 điểm cơ bản và giành thêm gần 50 điểm cơ bản thị phần danh mục sản phẩm.

Phần mềm của công ty vẫn đang trong giai đoạn thử nghiệm (beta) tại các tài khoản trọng điểm. Impinj có kế hoạch thương mại hóa phần mềm như một phần của nền tảng tích hợp bao gồm chip IC điểm cuối, chip IC đầu đọc, đầu đọc, cổng kết nối và phần mềm, thay vì chỉ coi đó là một sản phẩm độc lập.

Triển vọng và Dự báo của Ban Lãnh đạo

Mức trung bình của dự báo doanh thu tương ứng với mức tăng trưởng 14% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái từ mức doanh thu 92,8 triệu USD của quý 4/2025.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến doanh thu chip IC điểm cuối sẽ giảm nhẹ so với quý 3 nhưng vẫn ở mức khả quan hơn so với yếu tố mùa vụ thông thường. Doanh thu mảng hệ thống cũng được dự báo sẽ giảm so với quý trước do tiến độ dự án và việc tiêu thụ hàng tồn kho của khách hàng.

Biên lợi nhuận gộp dự kiến sẽ cải thiện khoảng 100 điểm cơ bản so với quý trước, nhờ cơ cấu sản phẩm M800 và doanh thu từ chip IC chuyên dụng có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn. Chi phí hoạt động dự kiến sẽ tăng so với quý trước.

Cho năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến cường độ vốn sẽ trở lại mô hình dài hạn sau khi mức chi tiêu thấp hơn trong năm 2025 và 2026. Công ty cũng dự kiến doanh thu ban đầu từ phần mềm sẽ ở mức khiêm tốn trước khi có khả năng mở rộng nhờ các đợt triển khai cho doanh nghiệp.

Rủi ro và Các yếu tố Cần theo dõi

• Công suất hậu xử lý wafer công đoạn sau (back-end) dùng chung — bao gồm làm mỏng, tạo mấu nối (bumping), cắt chip (dicing) và kiểm thử — hiện đang thắt chặt, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết nguồn cung wafer vẫn đầy đủ.
• Impinj phải tiếp tục mở rộng năng suất công đoạn sau trong nhiều quý tới để đáp ứng nhu cầu của khách hàng. Công ty có kế hoạch đầu tư để sở hữu nhiều công đoạn xử lý hơn và đa dạng hóa địa điểm.
• Doanh thu mảng hệ thống trong quý 4 sẽ chịu ảnh hưởng do tiến độ dự án doanh nghiệp bị dời lại và việc giảm hàng tồn kho tại các tài khoản trọng điểm.
• Impinj từng trải qua mức giảm doanh thu chip IC điểm cuối trong khoảng 14-16% so với quý trước trong quý 1/2025 và quý 1/2026 do khả năng theo dõi hàng tồn kho kênh phân phối bị hạn chế. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết dòng chip IC tùy chỉnh hiện cung cấp khả năng quan sát tốt hơn, nhưng thừa nhận rằng việc thực thi trong quý 1/2027 vẫn cần chứng minh sự cải thiện này.
• Chi phí đầu vào đang tăng lên. Công ty cho biết họ có thể chuyển phần chi phí tăng thêm — những chi phí không thể bù đắp thông qua các thay đổi kỹ thuật — sang cho khách hàng để bảo vệ mô hình biên lợi nhuận gộp của mình.
• Phần mềm vẫn đang trong giai đoạn thử nghiệm (beta) và cần được hoàn thiện đạt tiêu chuẩn doanh nghiệp trước khi thương mại hóa hoàn toàn.

Các Điểm chính trong Phần Hỏi - Đáp với Chuyên gia Phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo giải thích rằng yếu tố mùa vụ của mảng chip IC điểm cuối trong quý 4 khả quan hơn bình thường là nhờ nhu cầu diện rộng trên các lĩnh vực bán lẻ, chuỗi cung ứng và hậu cần, thực phẩm cùng với dòng M800, thay vì phụ thuộc vào một khách hàng hay thị trường người dùng cuối duy nhất. Sự trở lại của doanh thu từ chip IC chuyên dụng cũng hỗ trợ cho triển vọng này.

Sự sụt giảm của mảng hệ thống trong quý 4 chủ yếu phản ánh thời điểm triển khai của một dự án doanh nghiệp. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tình hình sẽ phục hồi vào đầu năm 2027 và cho biết doanh thu mảng hệ thống trong quý 1 có thể đi ngang so với quý trước thay vì giảm theo mùa vụ thông thường. Đây không phải là dự báo chính thức cho quý 1.

Về nguồn cung, Impinj làm rõ rằng sự hạn chế nằm ở công đoạn hậu xử lý (back-end) chứ không phải ở công đoạn sản xuất wafer đầu vào (front-end). Công ty có đủ công suất ở các bước xử lý mà họ sở hữu thiết bị, trong khi các bước thuê ngoài dùng chung vẫn tiếp tục thắt chặt.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các cơ hội đang mở rộng ra ngoài khách hàng hậu cần lớn thứ hai tại Bắc Mỹ. Công ty cũng thấy tiềm năng hỗ trợ khách hàng đó trong các đợt triển khai dịch vụ hậu cần bên thứ ba (3PL), điều này có thể tạo ra nhu cầu cho chip IC điểm cuối và các giải pháp rộng lớn hơn.

Đối với các sáng kiến Hộ chiếu Sản phẩm Kỹ thuật số (Digital Product Passport), ban lãnh đạo cho biết RAIN đã được phê duyệt làm phương tiện mang dữ liệu (data carrier) và dự kiến hoạt động sẽ gia tăng khi tiến gần đến mốc thời gian triển khai năm 2029, trong đó ngành may mặc bán lẻ sẽ dẫn đầu xét từ góc độ tầm quan trọng.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Welcome to the Impinj Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] Please also note today's event is being recorded.

At this time, I'd like to turn the floor over to Mr. Andy Cobb, Vice President, Corporate Finance and IR. Please go ahead.

Andrew Cobb

Thank you, Jamie. Good afternoon and thank you all for joining us to discuss Impinj's third quarter 2026 results. On today's call, Chris Diorio, Impinj's Co-Founder and CEO, will provide a brief overview of our market opportunity and performance. Cary Baker, Impinj's CFO, will follow with a detailed review of our third quarter financial results and fourth quarter outlook. We will then open the call for questions. You can find management's prepared remarks, plus trended financial data, on the company's Investor Relations website.

We will make statements in this call about financial performance and future expectations that are based on our outlook as of today. Any such statements are forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Whereas we believe we have a reasonable basis for making these forward-looking statements, our actual results could differ materially because any such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. We describe these risks and uncertainties in the annual and quarterly reports we file with the SEC. We do not undertake and expressly disclaim any obligation to update or alter our forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

On today's call, all financial metrics, except for revenue, or where we explicitly state otherwise, are non-GAAP. All balance sheet and cash flow metrics, except for free cash flow, are GAAP. Please refer to our earnings release for a reconciliation of non-GAAP financial metrics to the most comparable GAAP metrics.

Before turning to our results and outlook, note that we will participate in the 2026 BMO Technology and Innovation Leaders Conference on November 12 in New York, the 30th Annual UBS Global Technology and AI Conference on December 2 in Scottsdale, the Barclays 24th Annual Global Technology Conference on December 9 in San Francisco and the 29th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 13 in New York. We look forward to connecting with many of you at these events.

I will now turn the call over to Chris.

Chris Diorio

Thank you, Andy, and thank you all for joining the call. Our third quarter results were strong, with endpoint IC revenue and unit volumes, as well as total revenue, all setting new quarterly records. M800's market strength, resilient retail demand, growth at our lighthouse accounts and Gen2X momentum all contributed to the record results. Looking forward, we see those trends continuing.

Starting with silicon, M800 demand, the custom ASIC conversion at our supply chain and logistics end user and strength at our visionary European retailer anchored our strong unit volume growth. We met, but were unable to get ahead of, market need, despite us ramping our back-end wafer post-processing throughput as quickly as we could. We will continue ramping our back end at an elevated pace for at least the next 2 quarters to meet the growing demand. With strong support from our wafer foundry partner, we remain confident in our ability to deliver.

Reader IC revenue also beat our expectations and was our fastest-growing product line, driven by enterprise pull for partner readers. Looking to the fourth quarter, we anticipate strong year-over-year unit volume and revenue growth for both endpoint and reader ICs, including returning specialty endpoint IC revenue.

Turning to solutions, today's revenue still derives primarily from hardware sales. Our software is in beta at our lighthouse accounts and not yet generating meaningful revenue. That said, the enterprise need for our software is acute, with very tight end-user-driven delivery schedules confirming our conviction in the long-term software opportunity.

Third quarter reader and gateway revenue was strong, led by sales into those lighthouse accounts. We expect those accounts to burn down reader and gateway stock in the fourth quarter, so despite us having a strong pipeline, fourth quarter deliveries will not see the typical seasonal step-up. Looking into 2027, we expect that timing to reverse. Even as we invest in and drive solutions in and beyond our lighthouse accounts, I encourage you to not lose sight of the fact that our solutions efforts at those accounts generate sustained sales across our entire platform, today contributing more than 20% of our total revenue.

Turning to food, as we highlighted last quarter, there are 4 distinct types of food programs: store replenishment, in-store inventory, loss identification and automated self-checkout. The third quarter added a large new logo in replenishment and another in inventory. We are closely engaged with the former on operational improvements for reduced out-of-stocks and food spoilage. Although it is still early days, we expect the solution to require our entire platform.

And for those of you who may have missed Kroger's recent Investor Day, their bakery pilot delivered nearly 70% faster inventory counts, 50% lower waste, approximately 200 basis points of sales lift and nearly 50 basis points of share gains in the category. With trusted item-level data, in our parlance Physical Intelligence, Kroger is creating a better store routine with lower waste, higher availability and more sales.

We launched physical intelligence in September, spotlighting how our platform provides real, trusted item data to enterprise AI systems. Physical Intelligence tells enterprises what items they have and when and where the items are moving, enabling the enterprises to take action and, by learning from those actions, improve their business outcomes.

Building on that launch, I'm thrilled to announce that Aileen Ryan, the outgoing President of the RAIN Alliance, will join us on December 1 as Chief Commercial Officer. In her 4 years leading the Alliance, Aileen built deep ecosystem and enterprise connections that will serve us well. She also brings 20-plus years of engineering and leadership experience at technology companies. Aileen will lead lighthouse account success as well as our solutions go-to-market, including partnerships and whole solutions delivery. She will partner closely with Gahan Richardson, now EVP of Product Management, and Carl Brasek, our SVP who leads go-to-market for our endpoint and reader ICs, readers, gateways and solution engines.

In closing, our strong market and product leadership, solutions focus and enterprise engagements continue driving record results. Our secular growth opportunity in retail, supply chain and logistics, food and a long tail of other applications continues expanding. Our solutions pipeline also continues growing, with exciting emerging opportunities in food. As we continue driving our bold vision, I remain confident in our market position and energized by the opportunities ahead.

As always, before I turn the call over to Cary for our financial review and fourth quarter outlook, I'd like to thank every member of the Impinj team for your tireless effort. I feel honored by my incredible good fortune to work with you. Cary?

Cary Baker

Thank you, Chris, and good afternoon, everyone. Third quarter revenue was a record $112.1 million, up 3% sequentially from $108.4 million in second quarter 2026 and up 17% year-over-year from $96.1 million in third quarter 2025. Notably, this quarter's revenue exceeded last quarter's record and did so without the benefit of licensing revenue.

Third quarter endpoint IC revenue was a record $97.3 million, up 1% sequentially from $96.4 million in second quarter 2026 and up 24% year-over-year from $78.8 million in third quarter 2025. Excluding the $17 million second quarter licensing revenue, endpoint IC product revenue grew 23% sequentially, exceeding our expectations. Looking forward, we expect a modest sequential decline in fourth quarter endpoint IC revenue, yet on the favorable side of typical seasonality.

Third quarter systems revenue was $14.8 million, up 23% sequentially from $12 million in second quarter 2026 and down 15% year-over-year from $17.3 million in third quarter 2025. Systems revenue exceeded expectations, with strength across all product lines. Looking forward, we expect fourth quarter systems revenue to decline sequentially for the reasons Chris cited.

Third quarter gross margin was 54.9%, compared with 60.9% in second quarter 2026 and 53% in third quarter 2025. The sequential decline was driven primarily by licensing revenue. The year-over-year increase was driven primarily by endpoint IC product mix, specifically a higher contribution from M800. Excluding the licensing revenue, third quarter product gross margin increased 130 basis points sequentially, driven primarily by M800. Looking forward, we expect fourth quarter gross margin to again increase sequentially, driven primarily by specialty ICs and M800.

Total third quarter operating expense was $37 million, compared with $35.3 million in second quarter 2026 and $31.8 million in third quarter 2025. Operating expense met expectations. Research and development expense was $21.5 million. Sales and marketing expense was $7.6 million. General and administrative expense was $7.9 million. Looking to the fourth quarter, we expect operating expense to increase sequentially.

Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, compared with $30.7 million in second quarter 2026 and $19.1 million in third quarter 2025. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.9%, well within the long-term range we provided at our 2023 Investor Day.

Third quarter GAAP net income was $4.7 million. Third quarter non-GAAP net income was $22.1 million, or $0.69 per share on a fully diluted basis.

Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the third quarter with cash, cash equivalents and investments of $228.3 million, compared with $263.7 million in second quarter 2026 and $265.1 million in third quarter 2025. Inventory totaled $83.4 million, down $8.1 million from the prior quarter.

Third quarter capital expenditures totaled $5 million. Free cash flow was $20.6 million.

Before turning to our guidance, I want to highlight a few items specific to our results and outlook. First, in September, when our 1.125% convertible notes due May 2027 became callable, we opportunistically repurchased $56.3 million aggregate principal using a mix of cash and shares. This repurchase highlights our ongoing commitment to minimize dilution, in this case by roughly 300,000 shares, as we reduce our convertible debt.

Second, we elected cash settlement for our capped call that matures in fourth quarter 2026, increasing our flexibility to opportunistically manage our remaining convertible debt. We now include the value of that asset, roughly $49 million, on our third quarter balance sheet as a current asset.

Third, as Chris highlighted, our growing endpoint IC demand requires additional back-end investment, specifically focused on throughput, site diversification and capacity. We expect capital expenditures to step up in first quarter 2027, with overall 2027 capital intensity back in line with our long-term model after lower spend in 2025 and 2026.

Finally, after a multi-year drought, we anticipate modest specialty endpoint IC revenue in fourth quarter and into 2027. That revenue is gross-margin accretive.

Turning to our outlook, we expect fourth quarter revenue between $104 million and $107 million, compared with revenue of $92.8 million in fourth quarter 2025, a year-over-year increase of 14% at the midpoint. We expect adjusted EBITDA between $19.2 million and $20.7 million. On the bottom line, we expect non-GAAP net income between $17.6 million and $19.1 million, reflecting non-GAAP fully diluted earnings per share between $0.55 and $0.60.

In closing, I want to thank the Impinj team, our customers, our suppliers and you, our investors, for your ongoing support.

I will now turn the call to the operator to open the question-and-answer session. Jamie?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Harsh Kumar from BMO.

Phần hỏi đáp

Harsh Kumar

First of all, congratulations. Awesome guidance, awesome results. Chris, I wanted to better understand, maybe some more details on the driver for significantly less-than-normal seasonality. I mean, historically, you're down 5% to 10%, and I just wanted to understand which particular segments or, maybe if you want to get into it, which particular customers might have driven the better-than-normal seasonality. And then I've got a follow-up.

Cary Baker

Yes. Harsh, this is Cary. I think I'll actually take that one.

Chris Diorio

Actually, I'm going to start by saying thank you for your comments, Harsh. Now go ahead, Cary.

Cary Baker

Okay, Harsh. So our endpoint IC bookings strength continued in Q3, not quite at the level of Q1 and Q2 where we set a record and then reset the record, but still very strong with a book-to-bill greater than one. We see several drivers of that strength. First, after a prolonged period of softness, we continue to see encouraging signs from retail. New programs continue rolling, existing programs continue expanding, the retail consumer remains resilient and retail sales overall continue to be growing.

And then second, in supply chain and logistics, our second large supply chain and logistics customer conversion to the custom IC was essentially completed in the third quarter, and we still have the international expansion on the horizon. So all of those factors are leading in. I think the other thing that I would add to the strength on Q4 revenue guide and being at the more favorable end of seasonality is we're also seeing the specialty IC revenue return, and we haven't had that in a while. It's modest, but it is certainly helping that equation.

Chris Diorio

I'll just say a little bit more, Harsh. You also asked what segments, and as Cary mentioned retail, it's kind of broad-based as well. We see strength in supply chain and logistics, growing opportunities in food as well as M800 market strength. So there's not one particular area I can point you directly to. It's a broad-based demand.

Harsh Kumar

And guys, congratulations on, I think you added 2 new customers that you talked about in food, and I think new logos is what you said. So maybe you could help us understand the size and the scope of these customers relative to the ones you're dealing with now.

Chris Diorio

Yes, Harsh, I'd say that the 2 logos are 2 logos. I didn't directly cite them as both customers. Both are pretty early. One of them we're engaged directly with. They are of the same size and magnitude as the existing ones that we have mentioned publicly or that you know about publicly. I can't cite their name or what we're doing with them, but it is a direct solutions engagement to solve some of their problems on replenishment and food freshness. So we're excited about that opportunity. It's very early days, but we believe that solving their problems will be a whole solutions play for us and will require our entire platform.

So more on that opportunity as we get going. It's obviously very early days, but exciting and corroborates the overall food opportunity that we see expanding. Huge opportunity. The bigger they are, the slower they end up ramping, but with all the logos in food now that are engaging, we feel really positive about the food opportunity next year and beyond.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jim Ricchiuti from Needham & Company.

James Ricchiuti

I just wanted to get -- hopefully get a better understanding of what you're seeing in terms of the reader and gateway portion of the business. You talk about strong sales in Q3. Were there pull-ins that occurred? Because it sounds like we're not going to see the normal seasonality in Q4. I don't know, maybe if you could just spend a moment on what may be transpiring in that part of the business.

Cary Baker

Yes. Jim, this is Cary. Thanks for the question. I think the biggest thing that we're seeing in Q4 systems guide is that project timing has shifted a couple programs to the right that we previously expected in the fourth quarter. Systems was strong in Q3 across all of our product lines, and that really goes to the broad strength that Chris was highlighting earlier. But the gap in Q4 is the project timing of one of our enterprise deployments.

As you think about seasonality, we're not going to hit the typical seasonal lift in Q4, but I think that reverses course in the first part of 2027. And where we typically are down in the first quarter of 2027, we may be more flattish in the first quarter because of that timing reversal.

Chris Diorio

Jim, I'd like to say one more thing about systems. The way I think about our systems business is that it's the anchor that allows us to win enterprises and with those wins, drive endpoint IC share, Gen2X pull and going forward, gives us an opportunity to drive software sales.

James Ricchiuti

Okay. Thanks for clarifying that as well. And maybe just need some additional clarification. When you say you were unable to get ahead of the market needs, are you saying that you would have been able to ship more product had it not been for some of the challenges at the back-end post-processing part of the business? What -- I'm not entirely clear on what happened there, if that -- if you could spend a moment on that.

Chris Diorio

Yes, I'm happy to, Jim. If you look at my prepared remarks, I said that our back-end ramp is at least a 3-quarter effort, the Q3 that we just went through and the 2 quarters ahead. I also said we see market demand continuing. So I encourage you to think about not just 1 quarter, but rather about us meeting our customers' multi-quarter supply needs and growing in market with them. So we're looking across at least 3 quarters and pacing our deliveries to meet the customer need, but making sure that we meet the customer need so we can grow in market.

And I guess while I have the chance here, I'm going to say just a little bit more there to drive some clarity about the back end. So we have sufficient capacity in the back-end semiconductor processing steps where we own the equipment. Our shortcoming, or kind of where we're struggling to get capacity, is in the shared process steps where we buy that capacity. So we're getting good support from our post-processors, no complaints there, but capacity in those steps is just tight because of the overall semiconductor market. So we're also investing to own some of those process steps, which is where Cary said that we're going to be -- I mean, our capital spend is going to increase going forward in line with our long-term model, whereas it has been down for the past 2 years.

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Rolland from Susquehanna.

Christopher Rolland

And yes, just following up on the supply side of things. So just to be clear, are you talking about front-end capacity and owning...

Chris Diorio

No, Chris. We're talking about back end. So we have sufficient wafer supply. We're getting good support from our wafer foundry partner. This is the back end, the post-processing once we get the wafer: the thinning, bumping, dicing, testing, all those things that we have to do to the wafer to make it usable by our partners who take a bare IC and put it down on a label.

Christopher Rolland

I see. Okay. Got it. And then what has happened to lead times for your products and backlog just given the tightness?

Cary Baker

Yes. Chris, this is Cary. The backlog has definitely gone up. We've had strong bookings throughout the year. Customers are ordering into Q1 already, so that explains some of the bookings strength. Now, that's not every customer, but we do have backlog into the first quarter.

Christopher Rolland

Okay. And then lastly, just for you, Chris, if you could just kind of speak more broadly about 2027 and the drivers of growth there, what you're most excited for, particularly in terms of end markets, what might be needle-moving as we think of growth at the margin for '27?

Chris Diorio

So Chris, I'm going to lean in and tell you where I'm most excited. If you look at where we engaged closely with our lighthouse accounts over the past few years, and with those accounts built solutions for and with them, the results are really nothing short of amazing. Think about our visionary European retailer, our second large North American supply chain and logistics end user, our Asian retailer. The results they're delivering in market are just fantastic, and the technology advancements they've made are just fantastic.

Today, we are, quite frankly, oversubscribed with new enterprises who see those results and are asking for our help to do similar things for them. So what I'm most excited about is our efforts to build repeatable solutions that we can drive more broadly into market and repeat some of our solution successes. Are we there today? No. Will we make progress next year? Absolutely. And that's where I'm most excited and where I'm pushing to drive those repeatable solutions that create pull for our entire platform.

Operator

Our next question comes from Guy Hardwick from Barclays.

Nicholas Igneri

This is Nick Igneri on for Guy. So I just wanted to ask about software. It's still in beta, but I think you described customer delivery schedules as very tight. What milestones need to occur before software becomes commercially available, and then when could we start to see a contribution to revenue?

Chris Diorio

So I'll take the first part of the question. We're on very tight delivery schedules. We're still in beta. Because we are delivering enterprise-grade software that needs to be fully hardened, we're not rushing it, but given that we're in beta, the time frame for us to go to full GA, at least for the first part of our software deliveries, is measured in months, not quarters. Cary?

Cary Baker

I would say that the timing of revenue will obviously follow that. Our expectations are aligned with our customers. I think the revenue impact in 2027 is probably modest at first, and then as we grow with our enterprise end users, there's a real opportunity for us to grow from there.

Nicholas Igneri

Okay. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just on specialty endpoint IC revenue, it's nice to see it returning after a multi-year drought, but I was wondering what's changed maybe in that market and how meaningful that could be during 2027.

Cary Baker

Think of this one as really a single customer that's focused on it, and we've seen over the course of our time that the demand for this ebbs and flows a little bit based on their business. We had strong specialty IC revenue in the 2022, 2023 time frame, a little bit of a drought and now it's coming back. I still think it's modest at this point, at least that's what I'm modeling, but obviously, given the high-margin profile of it, we'd love to sell as much as we can.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Searle from ROTH Capital.

Scott Searle

Nice job on the quarter, guys. Chris, maybe quickly to follow up on the software front. It sounds like as you're starting to get through beta, start to get some deployments in 2027, can you take us a little bit through how you expect this to monetize? Is it like traditional software? Is it going to be tied to unit volumes? How are you guys thinking about it? And as we look out a couple years, what might that look like as a percentage of sales? What's the goal there for the software portion of the business?

Chris Diorio

So Scott, it's pretty early days for us to provide some thoughts on how we're going to monetize it. Obviously, we'll be selling the software or licensing the software directly. But the way I like to think about that software is it reaches down all the way and touches the endpoint ICs, because at the end of the day, it's the endpoint ICs that are on the items and deliver the Physical Intelligence. So we're going to be looking for a whole platform initiative that includes our endpoint ICs, our readers and gateways, reader ICs and software as an integrated whole. And so my vision going forward is not just to think about monetizing software, but to monetize the integrated whole.

Now that's not something we're going to do quickly, but you should be looking at us over time and saying, how well are you as a company monetizing your platform sales, not just software, endpoint ICs or the things we talk about today. So I know that's not a direct and immediate answer, but it's where I want to take the company.

Cary, do you want the latter part of the question, or did I catch it?

Cary Baker

I think you got it, Chris.

Chris Diorio

Scott, did I answer your question adequately?

Scott Searle

Yes, you did. That's fine. I know it's early days and it's going to be evolutionary, so no, I appreciate that. And just as a follow-up, the last 2 years, right, we've had some channel inventory issues as we've gone into the end of the year. There have been some changes from a customer standpoint in terms of what you guys have done from a custom IC standpoint and I think just general visibility into your customers, I think more so. Could you give us an update in terms of what you're seeing now, what your comfort level is going into the end of the year and managing that potential channel inventory issue and seasonality as we go into the first quarter?

Cary Baker

Yes. Scott, thanks for the question. The Q1 endpoint IC missteps that we've had the last couple of years were a result of our inability to see how our customers managed inventory in support of our second large supply chain and logistics customer. The improved visibility that the custom IC provides is already paying dividends on that front, especially from a channel management standpoint. We now see how customers order. We see how they manage the channel inventory in support of that end user. And prior to the custom IC, we were unable to see that. We were unable to discriminate between orders for supply chain and logistics versus orders for typical retail demand. Now we believe with that improved visibility, we now have our arms around this portion of our channel, but after back-to-back mid-teens sequential endpoint IC declines in Q1 of '25 and then again in Q1 of '26, we fully understand that we have to prove it to you in the first quarter of 2027.

It's also worth highlighting, as you think about first quarter '25 and first quarter 2026, that they were impacted by both annual price declines as well as the rapid ramp of the M800. In the past, annual price negotiations impacted Q1 revenue, driving endpoint IC revenue down slightly sequentially. What is different this year is that our costs are going up, and while our first move is to try and design around those cost increases, sometimes we need to pass along those cost increases to protect the integrity of our gross margin model. And on the M800 ramp, we expect the M800 to reach its terminal mix in the fourth quarter 2026. And then the final piece I would add, as you're thinking about Q1, is our 4Q sequential comparison benefits from that modest specialty endpoint IC revenue.

Operator

And our final question today seems to come from Jim Ricchiuti from Needham & Company as a follow-up.

James Ricchiuti

Yes, it sounds like things are going well with your second U.S. logistics supply chain customer. I'm wondering, are you -- can you talk about whether you're seeing increased activity in logistics outside of that customer and any clarity on what might be happening in that market in terms of adding a more significant revenue stream from someone outside of that customer in logistics?

Chris Diorio

Yes. So Jim, answer -- the simple answer to your question is a yes. We can't cite names or logos, but we do see opportunity outside that customer. But notably, we also see 3PL opportunities with that customer to help them and us grow at their own customers. So those 3PL opportunities are driving additional endpoint IC sales, revenue opportunities and ultimately solution sales opportunities for us. So broad-based opportunities, and because we have such a close relationship with our existing customer, we're significantly focused on our ability to help them win those 3PL opportunities in market, which benefit both of us.

James Ricchiuti

Okay. The other thing, Chris, any -- I don't recall hearing you talk much about general merchandise. What -- how would you characterize demand in that segment of the market in Q3? I may have missed it. And how are you -- going forward, are you seeing either any signs of additional programs at some of the key players in that market or potentially even new players?

Chris Diorio

Yes, okay. Jim, I'll do my best on that question. Yes, I didn't cite anything about general merchandise in our prepared remarks because it keeps going at pace, neither faster nor slower than it has been, and so it was just one of the things that -- we had other stuff to talk about. But we are -- the work is progressing. We are doing what we can, or doing our part, to help drive additional general merchandise category expansion and remain excited about the opportunity.

Of course, there is one lead customer, and we look to that customer to make statements about their progress, but their efforts are already bleeding over into other enterprises who are starting to track general merchandise as well. So overall, let's just say that the momentum has not picked up, nor has it slowed down. Additional categories are in play. They're not announced yet. We're working on them, and continue to ask about it because you'll see more general merchandise pick up in the quarters ahead.

Operator

And we do have an additional question. This comes from Crawford Clarke from Jefferies.

Crawford Clarke

Congrats on the results. Juggling a few different things tonight, but I had a few quick questions, hopefully they haven't been asked. I think there was some commentary on March. I wasn't sure whether or not that was specifically referring to systems alone from a revenue perspective, or was that total revenue in terms of expectations for maybe how that might develop?

Cary Baker

Yes, we didn't guide -- we only guide 1 quarter at a time, so we weren't guiding the March quarter, but what we were highlighting was how to think about this Q1 versus prior Q1s. And Crawford, you know we've had missteps in the prior 2 Q1s. So we were just highlighting how we believe we have our arms around the channel inventory situation as it relates to our second large logistics customer, really the crux of the issue the last 2 Q1s.

We highlighted how the pricing and the mix environment might be different this year than the last 2 Q1s because our costs are going up, and when we're unable to engineer around those cost increases, we look to pass them on to protect our margin model. And we're exiting fourth quarter, we believe, with the M800 at its terminal mix, so we won't ramp up -- we won't have that ramp ahead of us as well.

The other piece is on the systems side. You probably noticed in the guide or the commentary that we are guiding systems down quarter-over-quarter in the fourth quarter. That's different than typical seasonality. Typical seasonality is up. The reason we're not typical this Q4 is because of project timing. We think that project timing reverses in the first part of next year. So in 1Q, again, this is not a guide, this is just things to think about, in 1Q, where we're typically down seasonal on a systems business, we may have the opportunity to be flattish from a systems perspective.

Then the other piece on the guide that you may be referring to, Crawford, is on gross margin for the fourth quarter. Now, we've got 2 benefits in gross margin: we've got the continued M800 ramp to its terminal mix, and we also have the layering in of the specialty ICs, and those are high-margin ICs. So we think gross margin is probably up roughly 100 basis points in the fourth quarter sequentially.

Crawford Clarke

Yes, that's very, very helpful. And then I guess there was maybe a pretty healthy decline in inventory. Is that like a die bank drawdown, or is that kind of what's going on there? And then if you could talk a little bit about maybe lead times for M800, that would be super helpful.

Cary Baker

Yes. So the inventory decline is 2 reasons, and both were anticipated. One is just the timing of wafer deliveries. They just slipped over into the first part of the fourth quarter. We knew that going in. We knew that would impact us.

The other piece is, as you look through our inventory, you'll see our mix of finished goods is low. This goes to the back end having to catch up after being underutilized in the first part of the year. So as we move die from raw to WIP to finished goods, we obviously increase cost. So when our mix of finished goods is lower than usual, you see that in the overall inventory value. So between those 2 things, that's what's driving most of the inventory coming down. We also outperformed on our revenue line, so that will impact it.

On M800 lead times, our bookings, as you know, have been healthy. We're actually booking somewhat into the first quarter of 2027. That's a little bit ahead of schedule.

Operator

And we do have an additional follow-up question from Scott Searle from ROTH Capital.

Scott Searle

Chris, I just wanted to slip a question in quickly on DPP, Digital Product Passport. Just kind of any updated thoughts in terms of what you're seeing on that front, progression in terms of adoption with RAIN as part of the standard or otherwise and just kind of high-level thoughts of when we might actually start to see some benefits from that?

Chris Diorio

Yes. So this is another item that I didn't touch on in my prepared remarks. The pace of DPP is basically following what we expect. RAIN is approved as a data carrier for DPP. There is renewed push to get readability in consumer mobile devices. We're, of course, not there yet, but today industrial devices are rolling forward with processors in them, driven by Qualcomm and now by others, that have support for RAIN RFID.

And what we're looking to is the delegated acts coming into force and DPP itself coming into force in the 2029 time frame. So although all the pieces are in place, it takes time for all the acts to roll out and the deadlines to be in place. So we're still 2.5 years out, but as we get closer to the actual date, I think you'll start to see a pick up of DPP initiatives, leading with, at least from a materiality standpoint, retail apparel.

Operator

And with that, ladies and gentlemen, we'll be concluding today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Chris Diorio, Co-Founder and CEO, for any closing remarks.

Chris Diorio

All right. Thank you, Jamie. I'd like to thank you all for joining the call today, and a very special thanks for your ongoing support. Have a good rest of your week. Bye-bye.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. We do thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines.