Cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh Q3 2026 của CTO Realty Growth: Nâng dự báo FFO khi đầu tư đạt 472 triệu USD

Điểm tin chính

• CTO Realty Growth đã báo cáo FFO cốt lõi quý 3 năm 2026 đạt 0,53 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng, tăng 10,4% so với mức 0,48 USD cùng kỳ năm ngoái. FFO cốt lõi từ đầu năm đến nay tăng 13,8% lên 1,57 USD mỗi cổ phiếu.
• NOI cùng bất động sản trung tâm thương mại tăng 3,8% trong quý và tăng 6,2% từ đầu năm đến nay. Tổng NOI cùng bất động sản, bao gồm một số bất động sản ngoài cốt lõi, tăng 2,3% trong quý.
• Công ty đã ký hợp đồng cho thuê 467.000 square feet trong quý. Hoạt động cho thuê so sánh đạt 396.000 square feet với chênh lệch giá thuê tiền mặt là 7%.
• Tổng vốn đầu tư trong 9 tháng đầu năm đạt 336,5 triệu USD với lợi suất bình quân trọng số là 9,4%. Sau các giao dịch bổ sung sau quý, khối lượng đầu tư năm 2026 đạt 472 triệu USD với cùng mức lợi suất bình quân trọng số.
• Ban lãnh đạo đã nâng dự báo FFO cốt lõi năm 2026 lên 2,11-2,14 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng và dự báo AFFO lên 2,22-2,25 USD trên mỗi cổ phiếu pha loãng.
• CTO kết thúc quý với tỷ lệ nợ ròng trên EBITDA điều chỉnh pro forma là 5,9 lần và thanh khoản khoảng 255 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tỷ lệ đòn bẩy sẽ tăng lên khoảng 6,5 lần sau các khoản đầu tư gần đây trước khi giảm về vùng thấp của khoảng 6 lần khi nguồn thu nhập tiềm năng bắt đầu đóng góp.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

CTO đã giải quyết toàn bộ 11 diện tích thuê chủ chốt bị bỏ trống. 9 diện tích đã được cho thuê lại với mức chênh lệch dương khoảng 70%, trong khi 2 diện tích còn lại đang trong hợp đồng bán cho một nhà bán lẻ toàn quốc với giá 20,7 triệu USD, dự kiến hoàn tất trong quý 4.

Không bao gồm Zona Rosa, tỷ lệ lấp đầy đã cho thuê tăng lên 95,7% từ mức 95,4% trong quý trước. Nếu tính cả Zona Rosa (vốn đạt tỷ lệ lấp đầy 67% khi được mua lại), tổng tỷ lệ lấp đầy danh mục đầu tư đạt 92,4% vào ngày 30 tháng 9.

Danh mục hợp đồng đã ký chưa mở cửa trị giá 5,6 triệu USD dự kiến sẽ hỗ trợ tăng trưởng giá thuê trong tương lai. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết khoảng 3,2 triệu USD sẽ bắt đầu đóng góp doanh thu trong năm 2027, phần lớn vào khoảng giữa năm, và hầu như toàn bộ danh mục sẽ đi vào hoạt động vào năm 2028. Con số này không bao gồm các hợp đồng cho thuê được ký tại Pompano Citi Centre sau khi kết thúc quý.

Tại Pompano Citi Centre, Amped Fitness đã đồng ý mở rộng thêm 19.000 square feet lên 53.000 square feet. Một công ty liên kết cũng đã thuê 56.000 square feet cho các mục đích nghiên cứu, thử nghiệm và văn phòng. Diện tích bổ sung này sẽ làm tăng diện tích báo cáo của bất động sản lên 565.000 square feet.

CTO dự kiến chương trình phát triển 6 mặt bằng độc lập sẽ tạo ra lợi suất không dùng đòn bẩy kết hợp ở mức hơn 10% trên khoản đầu tư khoảng 30 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng đóng góp vào lợi nhuận sẽ bắt đầu vào năm 2027, và phát huy toàn bộ hiệu quả vào năm 2028.

Các thương vụ thâu tóm tại Kansas City

CTO đã thâm nhập thị trường Kansas City thông qua hai thương vụ thâu tóm với tổng diện tích khoảng 1,3 triệu square feet.

• Zona Rosa: Được mua lại với giá khoảng 63 triệu USD, tương đương 82 USD trên mỗi square foot. Bất động sản này đạt tỷ lệ lấp đầy 67% và bao gồm 10 mẫu Anh đất phát triển đã có quy hoạch cùng khoảng 100.000 square feet diện tích chưa khai thác tối đa trong tổng số khoảng 250.000 square feet diện tích trống. Ban lãnh đạo đang hướng tới các mục đích sử dụng như chăm sóc sức khỏe & thể hình, giải trí, nhà hàng và khách sạn nhằm tăng cường hoạt động và nâng cao tỷ lệ lấp đầy.
• Summit Woods Crossing: Được mua lại sau khi kết thúc quý với giá 103 triệu USD, tương đương 189 USD trên mỗi square foot. Trung tâm rộng 545.000 square foot này đạt tỷ lệ lấp đầy 99%. Ban lãnh đạo đánh giá đây là tài sản chất lượng cao với một số hợp đồng cho thuê có mức giá thấp hơn giá thị trường, bao gồm Lowe’s và Kohl’s.

Đầu tư cấu trúc

CTO đã giải ngân một khoản vay trị giá 37 triệu USD vào tháng 7, trong đó 29,8 triệu USD được giải ngân khi hoàn tất giao dịch. Khoản vay thời hạn 2 năm này được đảm bảo bằng quyền thuê tại một bất động sản phức hợp ở Austin và có lợi suất tiền mặt ban đầu là 9,75%.

Sau khi kết thúc quý, công ty đã thực hiện khoản đầu tư vốn cổ phần ưu đãi trị giá 32 triệu USD vào một liên doanh sở hữu 10 trung tâm thương mại. Khoản đầu tư thời hạn 3 năm mang lại lợi suất 17%, bao gồm 7% thu nhập bằng tài sản (PIK). Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến sẽ duy trì vị thế này.

Danh mục đầu tư cấu trúc hiện đạt tổng cộng khoảng 260 triệu USD với tỷ suất kết hợp là 12,1%. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các khoản vay thương mại đang tiến gần mức trần mục tiêu của công ty là khoảng 15% tổng tài sản chưa khấu hao.

Bảng cân đối kế toán và Nguồn vốn

CTO đã hoàn tất hạn mức tín dụng tín chấp trị giá 1 tỷ USD bao gồm khoản vay tuần hoàn 400 triệu USD và các khoản vay có thời hạn 600 triệu USD đáo hạn từ tháng 9 năm 2029 đến tháng 3 năm 2032. Giao dịch này đã bổ sung 250 triệu USD cam kết và thanh khoản, đồng thời kéo dài thời gian đáo hạn nợ bình quân trọng số từ 1,6 năm lên 4,3 năm.

Công ty cũng thu về 27,3 triệu USD tiền thu thuần thông qua chương trình ATM với giá gộp bình quân là 21,83 USD mỗi cổ phiếu. Sau khi hoàn trả khoản thế chấp có đảm bảo duy nhất, toàn bộ nợ của công ty hiện là nợ tín chấp.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết công ty không cần phụ thuộc vào giá cổ phiếu để tài trợ cho các hoạt động ngắn hạn và dự kiến sẽ tập trung vào việc tái cơ cấu tài sản mang tính cơ hội. Công ty dự báo sẽ có một số hoạt động tái cơ cấu trong vòng 6 tháng tới nếu có mức giá chấp nhận được.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết điểm trung bình của dự báo FFO cốt lõi đại diện cho mức tăng trưởng khoảng 14% so với năm 2025. Kết quả quý 4 nằm trong phạm vi dự báo sẽ phụ thuộc một phần vào ngày bắt đầu tính tiền thuê và tỷ lệ phần trăm tiền thuê.

Rủi ro và Các điểm cần theo dõi

• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tỷ lệ đòn bẩy sẽ tăng từ 5,9 lần vào cuối quý lên khoảng 6,5 lần sau các giao dịch gần đây. Danh mục hợp đồng đã ký chưa mở cửa và thu nhập từ các mặt bằng độc lập sau đó có thể giúp giảm đòn bẩy khoảng 0,2 lần.
• Một hợp đồng hoán đổi trị giá khoảng 100 triệu USD sẽ đáo hạn vào năm 2027, làm tăng lãi suất áp dụng thêm khoảng 180 điểm cơ bản. Ban lãnh đạo không kỳ vọng áp lực tương tự liên quan đến hợp đồng hoán đổi trong năm 2028.
• Việc thay thế Harkins Theatres bằng Crunch Fitness tại Crossroads Towne Center dự kiến sẽ dẫn đến khoảng 12 tháng gián đoạn hoạt động giữa thời điểm Harkins trả mặt bằng vào đầu năm 2027 và Crunch bắt đầu trả tiền thuê vào năm 2028.
• Zona Rosa mang lại tiềm năng lấp đầy lớn nhưng đã gia nhập danh mục đầu tư với tỷ lệ lấp đầy chỉ 67%. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết khoản đầu tư liên quan đến khách thuê, thay vì bảo trì trì hoãn, sẽ là yêu cầu vốn chính.
• Theo ban lãnh đạo, mặt bằng lãi suất cao hơn không làm triệt tiêu nhu cầu mua các trung tâm bán lẻ của nhà đầu tư, nhưng có thể dẫn đến việc điều chỉnh giá khoảng 25-30 điểm cơ bản so với thời điểm 6 tháng trước.

Điểm nhấn phiên Hỏi & Đáp với các chuyên gia phân tích

Ban lãnh đạo mô tả nhu cầu thuê là ổn định và được hỗ trợ bởi các khách thuê chất lượng cao, mặc dù không nhận định thị trường đang trong tình trạng đổ xô tranh giành diện tích trống.

Đối với bất động sản văn phòng tại Albuquerque, CTO dự định đánh giá nhu cầu diện tích trong tương lai của Fidelity và chờ chính quyền mới của bang New Mexico trước khi tối ưu hóa tài sản này vào năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ không muốn bán quá sớm và bỏ lỡ giá trị tiềm năng chưa được hiện thực hóa.

Về các hợp đồng thuê đáo hạn vào năm 2028, ban lãnh đạo đã nhấn mạnh đến hợp đồng thuê giá thấp của JCPenney tại Rockwall, diện tích của Fidelity tại Albuquerque và vị trí của Harkins đã cho Crunch Fitness thuê trước. Việc gia hạn hợp đồng của các cửa hàng nhỏ hơn dự kiến sẽ mang lại thêm cơ hội tăng trưởng giá thuê.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết nhu cầu đối với các tài sản trung tâm thương mại tiếp tục được hỗ trợ bởi nguồn vốn cốt lõi. CTO có kế hoạch thực hiện thoái vốn một cách chọn lọc, đặc biệt là đối với các bất động sản đã ổn định, tăng trưởng chậm hơn mà công ty có thể đạt được mức giá cao.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the CTO Realty Growth 2026 Quarter 3 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Jenna McKinney, Director of Finance. Jenna, please go ahead.

Jenna McKinney

Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining us today for the CTO Realty Growth Third Quarter 2026 Operating Results Conference Call. Participating on the call this morning are John Albright, President and Chief Executive Officer; Philip Mays, Chief Financial Officer; and other members of the executive team who will be available to answer questions during the call.

I would like to remind everyone that many of our comments today are considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws. The company's actual future results may differ materially from the matters discussed in these forward-looking statements and we undertake no duty to update these statements. Factors and risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations are discussed from time to time in greater detail in the company's Form 10-K, Form 10-Q and other SEC filings. You can find our SEC reports, earnings release, supplemental and most recent investor presentation on our website at ctoreit.com.

With that, I will turn the call over to John.

John Albright

Thanks, Jenna and good morning, everyone. The third quarter was very productive for CTO as we continued our strong leasing and investment momentum. During the quarter, we signed 467,000 square feet of leases and completed $102.3 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.1%. That brings our 9-month total to 833,000 square feet of leasing and $336.5 million of investments at a weighted average yield of 9.4%. This activity drove core FFO per diluted share growth of 10.4% for the quarter and 13.8% for the 9 months. We have now addressed all 11 of our vacated anchor spaces. And just after the quarter end, we signed approximately 75,000 square feet of new leases at Pompano Citi Centre and completed an additional $135.8 million of investments, bringing year-to-date investments to $472 million at a weighted average yield of 9.4%.

Reflecting all of this activity, we are raising our 2026 core FFO guidance, which Phil will walk through shortly. Starting with leasing, our third quarter activity included 396,000 square feet of comparable leases at a 7% cash rent spread. Year-to-date comparable leasing totals 726,000 square feet at a 9% cash rent spread. Regarding the vacated anchor spaces, we addressed the last remaining box this quarter by subdividing the former Conn's space at Carolina Pavilion in Charlotte and signing leases with Cavender's and 2nd & Charles. We're pleased with how this all played out. Of the 11 spaces, 9 have been re-leased at approximately 70% positive spread. The remaining 2, as previously announced, are under contract to be sold to a national retailer for $20.7 million with closing expected in the fourth quarter. We expect these new anchors to bring more traffic to our centers and benefit the adjacent small shop space.

A few other leasing highlights. First, we signed a 55,000 square foot lease with Crunch Fitness at Crossroads Towne Center in Phoenix to replace Harkins Theatres. Although the Harkins lease runs through late 2028, we had negotiated an early termination right. That let us proactively backfill the space at a positive cash spread with a view that it will drive more foot traffic. We expect roughly 12 months of downtime between Harkins vacating early 2027 and the Crunch lease commencing in 2028. Second, just after the quarter end, Amped Fitness signed a lease to expand by 19,000 square feet at Pompano Citi Centre, bringing this immersive experience-driven fitness destination to 53,000 square feet.

An Amped affiliate also leased 56,000 square feet for research, development and testing of gym equipment and experiential rooms as well as office operations. This space is part of the 62,000 square feet of unfinished second floor shell space we identified as upside when we acquired the property last December. Because the space isn't currently in the center's square footage, the lease will increase Pompano Citi Centre to 565,000 square feet. Third, our outparcel program. This quarter, we signed 4 leases at multi-tenant buildings in 2 outparcel developments, T-Mobile at The Plaza at Rockwall and Jason's Deli, Acapella Nail Spa and Nothing Bundt Cakes at Beaver Creek in Raleigh. Together with the Swig and Cooper's Hawk leases signed earlier this year, we're making steady progress.

We continue to expect a blended low double-digit unlevered yield on about $30 million of investments across these 6 outparcels with earnings contribution beginning in 2027 and the full benefit in 2028.

Turning to occupancy. Excluding Zona Rosa, leased occupancy increased to 95.7% from 95.4% last quarter. Including Zona Rosa, which was 67% leased when we acquired it, the total portfolio was 92.4% leased at September 30. Zona Rosa gives us real room to grow, which I'll come back to in a moment. At quarter end, our signed-not-open pipeline was $5.6 million or about 4.6% of in-place cash rent. That's down modestly from last quarter, mainly because the State of New Mexico began paying rent at our Albuquerque property in September, though new leasing during the quarter offset most of this impact. We expect the majority of the signed-not-open pipeline to commence rent over the course of 2027.

Moving to investments. On our last call, we said we expected to close at least one more acquisition this year. We closed 2, both in Kansas City, a new market for CTO with more than 2.2 million people in a pro-business climate. Together, these 2 centers, both in strong local submarkets, add about 1.3 million square feet to our portfolio. First, Zona Rosa, which we acquired in the third quarter for approximately $63 million or $82 per square foot, well below replacement costs. It's a top lifestyle center in Kansas City's Northland submarket with about 5.5 million annual visits and is anchored by DICK's Sporting Goods, Barnes & Noble, Old Navy, Burlington and DSW.

Beyond the lease-up opportunity, the property includes 10 acres of entitled development land and about 100,000 square feet of underutilized space we can reposition. Second, Summit Woods Crossing, which we acquired in early October for $103 million or $189 per square foot, also well below replacement cost. It's a 545,000 square foot power center in Lee's Summit, one of the metro's most affluent submarket. It's 99% occupied and anchored by Lowe's, Kohl's, Best Buy, T.J. Maxx and Total Wine with a SuperTarget on the site that we don't own. With about 7.3 million annual visits, it's among the most visited shopping centers in the Kansas City metro area. These 2 acquisitions also strengthened our tenant credit with Dick's and Best Buy, both investment grade becoming our 2 largest tenants.

On the structured investment side, in July, we originated a $37 million loan, of which $29.8 million was funded at closing. It's secured by a leasehold interest in a mixed-use property in Austin, Texas, has a 2-year term and carries a 9.75% initial cash yield. Then after quarter end, we closed a $32 million preferred equity investment in a joint venture that owns 10 shopping centers. It is fully funded at closing, has a 3-year term and yields 17%, including 7% pay in kind. Our structured investment portfolio now totals approximately $260 million at a blended rate of 12.1%.

Finally, during the quarter, we closed a new expanded credit facility that gives us ample capacity to fund this activity. Phil will cover the details. In summary, we're very pleased with the 9 months of 2026. We believe our embedded growth drivers, including below-market in-place rents, the signed-not-open pipeline, lease-up opportunities, outparcel developments and disciplined capital recycling positions CTO for meaningful earnings growth.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Phil.

Philip Mays

Thanks, John. On this call, I will briefly highlight our quarterly results and provide an update on our balance sheet and revised full year outlook. Starting with operating results. For the third quarter, core FFO was $0.53 per diluted share, up 10.4% from $0.48 a year ago. Growth was driven primarily by leases that commenced paying rent over the past year, along with contributions from our property acquisitions and structured investments. Year-to-date, core FFO was $1.57 per diluted share, up 13.8%. Shopping center same-property NOI grew 3.8% for the quarter and 6.2% for the year-to-date.

As we flagged on our last call, growth moderated as several anchors that opened in late 2025 moved into the prior year comparable period. Including a few noncore properties, total same-property NOI grew 2.3% for the quarter. This reflects the downtime at our last significant noncore property in Albuquerque, where space vacated last December is now leased to the State of New Mexico, which recently commenced paying rent, as John noted. Turning to PINE. Income from our management agreement and equity investment was $2.2 million for the quarter and our annualized run rate is now $9 million, consisting of $5.8 million of management fees and $3.2 million of dividend income.

Moving to the balance sheet. During the quarter, we closed a $1 billion unsecured credit facility, consisting of a $400 million revolver and $600 million of term loans with maturities ranging from September 2029 to March 2032. The facility added $250 million of commitments and liquidity and extended our weighted average debt maturity to 4.3 years from 1.6 years. Also during the quarter, we raised $27.3 million of net proceeds through our ATM program at an average gross price of $21.83 per share and repaid our only secured mortgage. Our debt is now entirely unsecured.

We ended the quarter with net debt to pro forma adjusted EBITDA of 5.9x, essentially in line with the last quarter and down from 6.7x a year ago and approximately $255 million of liquidity. Total debt was $723 million at a weighted average interest rate of 4.7%. Finally, turning to guidance. We're raising our 2026 core FFO guidance to a range of $2.11 to $2.14 per diluted share, up from $2.09 to $2.13. At the midpoint, that represents approximately 14% growth over 2025. We're also raising the low end of our AFFO guidance to a new range of $2.22 to $2.25 per diluted share, up from $2.21 to $2.25. Key assumptions in our revised guidance include shopping center same-property NOI growth of 5% to 6%, investment volumes, including commercial loans and structured investments of approximately $472 million, up from our prior range of $300 million to $400 million and general and administrative expenses of $21 million to $21.5 million.

With that, operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Jay Kornreich of Cantor Fitzgerald.

Phần hỏi đáp

Jay Kornreich

Can you talk just about the general supply-demand fundamentals you're seeing across the portfolio? I guess, are the power centers currently a landlord's market via pricing power? And if so, is that a trend you expect to continue throughout 2027?

John Albright

Yes. Thanks, Jay. Yes, we're seeing still good activity on the leasing front from really good quality tenants. I wouldn't say that it's like a mad grab for space or anything like that but good consistent demand and the type of tenants you want.

Jay Kornreich

Okay. And then maybe just shifting to the office property in New Mexico. Just curious if there's any update there for opportunities to start marketing that asset and any update to timing when a potential sale could happen?

John Albright

Sure. So basically, State of New Mexico is now in, so that's great. We're talking to the other tenant, Fidelity, about kind of what their space needs are going forward and then waiting for the new administration in the State of New Mexico to come online next year. So basically, next year, we'll kind of basically optimize the property rather than hastily sell it when it might be leaving some easy money on the table.

Operator

Our next question comes from Matthew Erdner of Jones.

Matthew Erdner

I'd like to kind of touch on the 2 recent acquisitions in Kansas City. You touched a little bit on why you like the environment there. But I guess what's the opportunity that you kind of see at Zona Rosa, just the amount that you guys are able to kind of bring online over the next couple of years?

John Albright

Yes. So the property had been owned by a entity that had foreclosed on it. So there wasn't very much outreach on the leasing side. And so I feel like -- the property has some very high-performing tenants. So we've done this many times before and I think that there's a lot of opportunity on the health and fitness side, on the entertainment side, on the restaurant side and then also talked to hotel developers about the pad sites. And so just really attacking on all sides. And given that we bought it at a nice opportunistic current yield and with all that vacancy opportunity to lease up, it's -- we're really excited about the opportunity there.

Matthew Erdner

Yes, that's good to hear. And then as it relates to kind of the leasing opportunity through '28, it's about 25% of ABR right now. I guess how much of that is attributable to Zona Rosa and kind of the newer acquisitions? And then again, just the opportunity to kind of drive spreads higher there?

John Albright

I'll let Phil address that.

Philip Mays

On the -- you're asking on the '28 expirations, how much is attributable to Zona Rosa?

Matthew Erdner

Yes.

Philip Mays

There's not too much in there. What is in there, we feel really good about. There's the JCPenney's renewal at Rockwall. It's a very, very low rent. So we feel good they'll renew. There's actually Fidelity's renewal, which is in there, which John was talking about earlier at Albuquerque. They've recently generally rightsized. So we feel good about that. And then the other really large one in there is Harkins at Crossroads, which John talked about. We've already kind of proactively re-leased that with Crunch Fitness. Those are the larger ones in there. After that, a lot of small shops. Some have contractual extensions, some don't. So that will be where we'll kind of grow our rents, is in those small shop renewals.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rob Stevenson of Huntington.

Robert Stevenson

How are you thinking about equity funding in the near and intermediate term with the stock now sort of sub-20 at this point?

John Albright

Yes. I mean, obviously, we don't think the stock is at the right price. And now that we've done the investments -- a lot of investments this year, almost sort of getting close to the market cap of the company. We're not like needing to expect that the stock price to be at a certain level to raise equity here. So we've done enough investments. We're definitely looking at the recycling side. Can we get premium pricing on some of the assets that are now stabilized and slower growing? And so you probably see more of that. So we don't really need to rely on the equity price to be at a certain level.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. I guess given that comment, John, how are higher rates impacting the demand for some of the assets that you want to sell at this point? Are you still seeing decent demand and the brokers think that you could achieve the pricing? Is it a situation where people have sort of pulled back, waiting to see what winds up happening over the next couple of months in terms of moves, et cetera? How would you characterize that today?

John Albright

Yes. You still have a large capital base of capital that wants to get back into the space or get into the space as far as the retail shopping centers. And they're going to plow through no matter kind of what. Now they'll have pricing adjustments based on rates but it's not going to inhibit the demand for sure. So the demand is there from the right capital being very core capital. And of course, there'll be a little pricing adjustment, whether it's probably 25 bps, 30 bps from 6 months ago, something like that but nothing dramatic.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. And then, Phil, what is the pace of the $5.6 million signed-not-open? It doesn't sound like Crunch starts until 2028 but when do the big pieces of that $5.6 million start to hit the revenue line for you guys?

Philip Mays

Yes. So we actually put in our investor presentation there. We schedule it out by year. So that might be helpful. But of the $5.6 million, about $3.2 million comes online in '27. And pretty much all of it is online for '28. So we get really the full benefit in '28, a little over half the benefit in '27.

Robert Stevenson

And then last one for...

Philip Mays

That doesn't reflect the leasing of Pompano that John talked about that happened just after the end of the quarter. And so that will be a little more incremental positive on top of what's in the signed-not-open pipeline currently.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. And should we -- that $3.2 million in '27, is that sort of throughout the weighted throughout the -- weighted fairly evenly throughout the year? Or is there like a big chunk in any specific quarters that we need to be aware of in the back half?

Philip Mays

Kind of back-end leases, it's right around the middle of the year.

Robert Stevenson

Okay. And then last one for me. So the guidance today, what gets you sort of at the high end? I mean the low end of the guidance range for both core and AFFO is about $0.01 better than what you did in the third quarter. But the high end of that range is a few pennies higher than that. What's the sort of variable that gets you from the sort of low end to the high end of the guidance range for the year?

Philip Mays

Yes. I mean it's a few things. A lot of it's signed-not-open rent commencement. Some of that could come online late this year and that would bump us up. That's probably -- that -- there's always in the fourth quarter, there's percent rent, right? And we have a significant amount that happens in the fourth quarter. So it's really just rent commencement dates, percent rent and where those shake out in the fourth quarter.

Operator

Our next question comes from Craig Kucera of Lucid Capital Markets.

Craig Kucera

I want to circle back to Zona Rosa, which is a pretty interesting acquisition. I guess you have about 250,000 square feet of vacancy there and you mentioned you also had 100,000 square feet of underutilized space. Can you -- are those -- those are independent of each other, correct?

Philip Mays

The 100,000 is part of the 250,000. Yes. So it's in total but there's 100,000 that's just very underutilized where it sits and not really activated because there's not an anchor to really drive people back there currently. And we're working on finding ways to implement and activate that part of the center to get some leasing momentum for that 100,000 specifically. But it's in -- the 250,000 includes that, Craig.

Craig Kucera

Okay. That's helpful. And are you expecting a meaningful amount of CapEx to reposition this acquisition? Or is there a lot of low-hanging fruit maybe like we saw at Carolina Pavilion?

John Albright

Yes, there's not a lot of capital needed to do to -- basically deferred maintenance or anything. There definitely is deferred maintenance but it's not a huge amount. And we're working on all that landscaping, painting, that sort of thing. But the real capital will come with tenants. So very much revenue-producing sort of capital yielding investment.

Craig Kucera

Right. That makes sense. And as far as repositioning there, is this a situation where some of the tenants are paying way below market and you can kind of replace them with markets? Or is it really more what you alluded to before, I think about bringing in like health and fitness and a restaurant, maybe hotels on the pads?

John Albright

Yes, it's more about activating the property to its potential. So there's not any huge mark-to-market. It's just a lot of vacancy opportunity and missing uses.

Craig Kucera

Okay. That makes sense. Changing gears with the $32 million preferred equity investment you made earlier this quarter, are you likely to keep that whole investment or sell a portion similar to what you did at PINE for some of the higher-yielding investments you have there?

John Albright

Yes. That one, we're really lucky to have and happy to help out on the transaction that transpired as a -- on a portfolio that we tried to buy. And so we lost on the transaction but was able to do this preferred investment at a lower basis than where we were willing to buy the portfolio. So we expect that to be a hold.

Craig Kucera

Okay. And Phil, is the swap on the 2030 term loan, is the only swap expiring next year?

Philip Mays

Yes, there's one swap maturing. It's on about $100 million and it rolls up about 180 basis points. I can't remember, Craig, if that's on the 2030 or the 2032 loan but either way, it's 2032 loan. It's $100 million and it will roll up 180 basis points. That's the only one we have changing in '27. In '28, we got a couple but they're fairly close to market. So there won't be a significant drag in '28 from any swaps expiring.

Craig Kucera

Okay. And just one more for me. You mentioned the lease termination at Harkins. How much was that fee? And was that recognized in the third quarter? Or will be recognized this quarter or in the future?

Philip Mays

Yes. There was -- that was really more -- we just got an early termination option. So we actually just in order to get that and have the flexibility to exercise it on timing that works with Crunch coming in and limiting the downtime. We just actually just gave them a little bit of break in rent. We didn't get any income and then we got that option in exchange for that break in rent. And Crunch is well underway of working to get all their approvals and everything. And then we'll hit that option at the most opportune time to limit the downtime there. So there's no kind of onetime income this quarter related to that.

Operator

Our next question comes from Gaurav Mehta at Alliance Global Partners.

Gaurav Mehta

I wanted to follow up on the $32 million loan that you guys did in 4Q. Why is the yield at 17% higher than, I guess, some of the other loans that you've done in the past?

John Albright

Just because the complexity of the transaction, is fast moving, needed to be done by a date certain. It gave them some flexibility on when they can kind of repay us, expect it to be more of a 2-year duration sort of investment. So it was just really -- they had to have the capital by a certain time and didn't have a lot of time to go shop around. So we -- because we, as I mentioned before, tried to acquire the portfolio, we had already underwritten it. And if they went out to other people that would need time to underwrite it, it would be impossible for them to have something closed in the timing they needed to have it closed.

Gaurav Mehta

Okay. Second question, your commercial loan investments seem like they're 14% of undepreciated assets. Can you remind us what the target is for the loan investment portfolio?

John Albright

Yes. I mean this is basically the level, 15%, I think we mentioned before. So I don't anticipate this going higher than the level where it is right now.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Massocca of B. Riley Securities.

John Massocca

So maybe just given some moving pieces, particularly happening subsequent to quarter end and your outlook on the capital markets, how are you thinking about leverage currently? And I guess you mentioned it a little bit to one of the earlier questions but does that kind of set up for some more maybe systematic dispositions next year? Or are you kind of happy at this level or maybe more opportunistic with sales?

Philip Mays

Yes. I'll take the leverage piece, John. So at the end of the quarter, we were a little under 6x. With all that activity, I think we go up to maybe 6.5x debt-to-EBITDA. And then keep in mind, we have a really robust signed-not-open pipeline. We have these pads. I'm not going to take it down 0.5 turn or anything but they will incrementally bring it down 0.2 turn or so, right? So we'd be in the low 6s. So it's a level we're comfortable with. But that said, we'll be -- we can always look to recycle depending on the opportunities we're seeing. On the market side, I'll let John answer.

John Albright

Yes. I mean I think, as I mentioned before, we'll opportunistically recycle if we get the right pricing for some of the assets. So I expect something to happen in the next 6 months on the recycling side but -- so expect a little bit of that.

John Massocca

Okay. And then on the Summit Woods transaction, anything to be aware of that could be kind of additive there, either kind of re-tenanting or re-leasing? Or is it just kind of a very attractive day 1 yield for the quality of asset you purchased?

John Albright

Yes. I would say it's the latter. That is a really high-quality property with solid tenant quality but there are very below-market leases on that property. The Kohl's and the Lowe's are really low rents. So almost sort of like a covered land play, if you will. But yes, we like the solid nature of the asset.

John Massocca

Okay. And then on Pompano Citi Centre, you're kind of adding square footage with the new tenant. Is there any more opportunities for that with some of the second floor space if you can activate it? Or is that kind of going to be fully utilized post that lease-up?

John Albright

No, we still have room to go there. There's still opportunity there on the leasing side and we're getting really good traction. So we're excited about the runway at Pompano. So the Amped expansion is going to do a lot for just driving more energy there. And we're taking out -- they're taking over corridor space. So expenses that we were paying on sort of dead space, that's going to go away. So it's all kind of lining up really well for us.

John Massocca

And I mean how much more square footage could kind of be added either as the cost of what Amped is doing or just absolutely?

Philip Mays

Yes. No. So the lease at the end of the quarter was low 90s percent like 92%, 93%. So there's a lot of runway just there and that's on the existing square feet. Amped took the vast majority of that unfinished space and for lack of a better way to describe it, it was like enclosed structure parking. I mean -- and they took 55,000 square feet and that space was, I think, right around 60,000 square feet. And we had underwritten that at 0. And while we -- as -- while we tend to do that to be conservative on our underwriting, John and our Head of Leasing take it very personal and they went out and found a creative use for it there. So that unfinished space now is largely filled with Amped but we still have a lot of runway just on the property itself because it's relatively, on a relative basis, low leased.

Operator

I am showing no further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may now disconnect.