Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Ford (F): Nâng dự báo EBIT lên 10,5 - 11 tỷ USD

Thông tin cốt lõi

• Ford đạt 49,5 tỷ USD doanh thu trong quý 3/2026, giảm 2% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái, trong khi EBIT đã điều chỉnh tăng 3% lên 2,7 tỷ USD.
• Công ty đã nâng mức tối thiểu trong dự báo EBIT đã điều chỉnh cả năm lên 10,5 tỷ - 11 tỷ USD. Dự báo dòng tiền tự do đã điều chỉnh vẫn giữ nguyên ở mức 6 tỷ - 7 tỷ USD.
• Dòng tiền tự do đã điều chỉnh trong quý 3 đạt 4,7 tỷ USD. Ford kết thúc quý với 25,3 tỷ USD tiền mặt và 46,4 tỷ USD tổng thanh khoản.
• Ford Pro ghi nhận 1,7 tỷ USD EBIT, trong khi Ford Blue đạt 1,4 tỷ USD. Model e đã giảm 25% lỗ EBIT hàng quý so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái xuống còn 1,1 tỷ USD.
• Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng khả năng sinh lời năm 2027 sẽ tương đương với năm 2026, mặc dù dự kiến chịu áp lực khoảng 2 tỷ USD so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái từ chi phí hàng hóa, bộ nhớ và logistics.
• Ford tiếp tục hướng tới biên EBIT đã điều chỉnh đạt 8% vào năm 2029. Ban lãnh đạo cũng duy trì mục tiêu đưa Model e đạt hòa vốn vào năm 2029.

Dữ liệu tài chính quan trọng

Kết quả kinh doanh và vận hành

Ford cho biết xe tải, xe van và SUV ba hàng ghế tiếp tục giữ vị trí trung tâm trong chiến lược sản phẩm của hãng. Dòng F-Series ghi nhận thị phần bán lẻ tại Mỹ cao nhất trong số các thương hiệu xe tải cỡ lớn trong quý, trong khi các sản phẩm việt dã có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn chiếm khoảng một phần tư doanh số của Ford tại Mỹ, tăng gần 4 điểm phần trăm so với một năm trước đó.

Lợi nhuận giảm của Ford Blue chủ yếu phản ánh sản lượng sụt giảm sau khi ngừng một số dòng sản phẩm, xung đột tại Trung Đông và chi phí hàng hóa tăng cao. Cơ cấu sản phẩm thuận lợi đã giúp hỗ trợ kết quả, bao gồm nhu cầu mạnh mẽ hơn đối với các mẫu xe Explorer Tremor và Platinum có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn. Hàng tồn kho F-150 kết thúc quý ở mức 49 ngày cung ứng bán lẻ, thấp hơn khoảng mục tiêu của Ford.

Doanh thu của Ford Pro tăng mặc dù sản lượng bán buôn thấp hơn. EBIT giảm do chi phí hàng hóa tăng và các chi phí tạm thời liên quan đến việc ra mắt Super Duty tại Oakville. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết công suất bổ sung tại Oakville sẽ hỗ trợ tăng trưởng ở các kênh bán lẻ, cho thuê và tùy chỉnh xe.

Model e báo cáo khoản lỗ EBIT 1,1 tỷ USD, cải thiện 25% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Ford cho biết việc điều chỉnh quy mô sản xuất xe điện thế hệ đầu tiên và cắt giảm chi phí cấu trúc đã hỗ trợ kết quả này, mặc dù công ty vẫn tiếp tục đầu tư vào nền tảng Xe điện Toàn năng và Ford Energy.

Dịch vụ phần mềm và phụ tùng đóng góp khoảng 10% doanh thu hàng quý với biên lợi nhuận mà ban lãnh đạo mô tả là rất khả quan. BlueCruise, tính năng kết nối và Ford Pro Intelligence đã hỗ trợ tăng trưởng phần mềm, trong khi mảng phụ tùng hưởng lợi từ mức tăng trưởng hai chữ số ở kênh bán buôn tại Mỹ và sự tăng trưởng tại châu Âu.

EBT của Ford Credit đã tăng lên 803 triệu USD nhờ kết quả từ các công cụ phái sinh, biên lợi nhuận tài trợ và giá xe đã qua sử dụng. Ford cũng đã ra mắt dịch vụ cho thuê tài chính Ford Pro trong quý và kỳ vọng danh mục quản lý đội xe kỹ thuật số Pro của mình sẽ vượt 100.000 xe vào cuối năm.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến khả năng sinh lời năm 2027 sẽ tương đương với năm 2026. Ford có kế hoạch làm mới 70% danh mục sản phẩm xe toàn cầu tính theo sản lượng, mở rộng dòng xe tải và xe đa dụng tại Bắc Mỹ, đồng thời đầu tư vào F-150 thế hệ tiếp theo, nền tảng Xe điện Toàn năng và Ford Energy.

Ford dự kiến áp lực bất lợi so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái trong năm 2027 sẽ đạt khoảng 2 tỷ USD từ chi phí hàng hóa, bộ nhớ và logistics. Ban lãnh đạo dự định bù đắp những áp lực này thông qua việc cải tiến sản xuất công nghiệp, tối ưu hóa doanh thu, tăng trưởng mảng phần mềm và phụ tùng, cũng như hiệu quả chi phí trên toàn công ty.

Mẫu xe điện Fathom EV vẫn được lên kế hoạch ra mắt vào quý 4/2027, với giá bán lẻ đề xuất khởi điểm là 28.350 USD và các phiên bản cấu hình cao hơn tiệm cận khoảng gần 40.000 USD. Ford cho biết 90% các thử nghiệm thẩm định đã được hoàn tất, mặc dù sự sẵn sàng của nhà cung cấp và khả năng cung cấp phụ tùng chất lượng cao theo đúng tốc độ sản xuất quy mô lớn vẫn là các ưu tiên hàng đầu cho đợt ra mắt.

Ford Energy vẫn đang đi đúng tiến độ để đưa 20 gigawatt-giờ công suất hàng năm đi vào hoạt động vào cuối năm 2027. Các hợp đồng đã ký kết và các cuộc đàm phán ở giai đoạn cuối đã bao phủ hơn 80% công suất năm 2028, và ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng công suất đó sẽ được đăng ký hết vào quý 1/2027. Ford chỉ ra rằng khoảng một phần ba trong số khoảng 2 tỷ USD khoản đầu tư dự kiến sẽ diễn ra vào năm 2026 và hai phần ba vào năm 2027.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

Dự báo của Ford chưa bao gồm tác động tiềm tàng từ sự leo thang xung đột nghiêm trọng ở Trung Đông hoặc sự suy thoái đáng kể của nền kinh tế Mỹ. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một trong hai yếu tố này đều có thể ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến nhu cầu toàn ngành.

Lạm phát giá hàng hóa tiếp tục là một áp lực lớn, trong đó Ford đã nâng mức dự báo áp lực bất lợi cho năm 2026 thêm khoảng 500 triệu USD lên tới gần 2,5 tỷ USD. Giá nhiên liệu tăng cao cũng đang làm tăng chi phí vận tải và năng lượng.

Lộ trình hòa vốn của Model e dự kiến sẽ không diễn ra theo đường thẳng. Ban lãnh đạo dự báo chi phí sẽ tăng cao hơn trong năm 2027, trước khi khả năng sinh lời cải thiện rõ rệt hơn vào nửa đầu năm 2028 khi Fathom và Ford Energy bắt đầu tạo ra doanh thu ở quy mô lớn.

Ford cũng xác định châu Âu là khu vực đối mặt với áp lực cạnh tranh ngắn hạn lớn nhất từ các nhà sản xuất ô tô Trung Quốc, cùng với các quy định bắt buộc về xe điện và tình trạng dư thừa công suất sản xuất kéo dài.

Nội dung nổi bật từ phiên Q&A với các chuyên gia phân tích

• Các yếu tố bù đắp lợi nhuận năm 2027: Ban lãnh đạo đã xác định tối ưu hóa cơ cấu sản phẩm, định giá, tăng trưởng mảng phần mềm và phụ tùng, kỷ luật hàng tồn kho và tiết kiệm chi phí cấu trúc là những mảng phần lớn nằm trong tầm kiểm soát của Ford. Việc ứng dụng AI vào cảm biến nhu cầu và lập kế hoạch công suất đang được sử dụng để cải thiện sự ổn định trong sản xuất.
• Mức độ sẵn sàng ra mắt Fathom: Ford đã sản xuất các xe dây chuyền thử nghiệm ban đầu và chế tạo 5.000 chi tiết đúc nguyên khối. Rủi ro triển khai chính còn lại là đảm bảo các nhà cung cấp có thể giao linh kiện chất lượng theo đúng tốc độ sản xuất yêu cầu.
• Quỹ đạo của Model e: Ford dự kiến vốn đầu tư sẽ tăng trong năm 2027. Ban lãnh đạo nhận thấy bước chuyển biến lớn tiếp theo về khả năng sinh lời sẽ diễn ra trong nửa đầu năm 2028, tiếp sau đó là các lợi ích bổ sung vào năm 2029.
• Tồn kho xe tải: Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến hàng tồn kho F-150 sẽ duy trì gần mức thấp của khoảng mục tiêu thay vì quay trở lại mức lịch sử 80-100 ngày. Ford xem mức khoảng 55-60 ngày là mục tiêu mang tính kỷ luật hơn.
• Công suất của Ford Energy: Công ty đang đánh giá việc mở rộng vượt mức 20 gigawatt-giờ ban đầu nhưng sẽ xem xét nhu cầu khách hàng, hiệu suất đầu tư, chính sách thuế và các phương án sử dụng vốn thay thế trước khi đưa ra cam kết.
• Năng lực cạnh tranh về chi phí: Ford cho biết cấu trúc chi phí thấp hơn của Fathom dựa vào kiến trúc điện tự phát triển nội bộ, giảm bớt số lượng linh kiện nhờ các chi tiết đúc nguyên khối cỡ lớn, giảm chi phí nhân công, các tế bào pin LFP và động cơ, hộp số cùng bộ biến tần hiệu quả hơn.

Toàn văn biên bản cuộc họp kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Good day, everyone. My name is Ronnie, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome you to the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Maria Ricciardone, Chief Investment Relations Officer.

Maria Ricciardone

Thank you, Ronnie, and welcome to Ford Motor Company's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. I'm Maria Ricciardone, Ford's Chief Investor Relations Officer. With me today are Jim Farley, President and CEO; and Sherry House, CFO. Joining us for Q&A are Andrew Frick, President of Ford Blue and Model e; Alicia Boler Davis, President of Ford Pro; Kumar Galhotra, Chief Operating Officer; Cathy O'Callaghan, CEO of Ford Credit; and Dave Carroll, President of Ford Energy.

Jim will give a high-level overview of the business, and Sherry will provide added texture on the financials and guidance. We will be referencing non-GAAP measures today. These are reconciled to the most comparable U.S. GAAP measures in the appendix of our earnings deck. You can find the deck at shareholder.ford.com.

Our discussion also includes forward-looking statements. Our actual results may differ. The most significant risk factors are included on Page 20 of our deck, Unless otherwise noted, all comparisons are year-over-year. Company EBIT, EPS and free cash flow are on an adjusted basis.

Upcoming IR engagements include Sherry House at the Barclays Global Auto and Mobility Tech Conference in New York on November 18.

Now I'll turn the call over to Jim.

James Farley

Thanks, Maria. Ford delivered another strong quarter, thanks to our great products, our services and execution. I want to thank our employees and our dealers, all of our suppliers for this progress and for their commitment to Ford+.

In the third quarter, as you know, we generated $2.7 billion in adjusted EBIT. We're raising our low end of our previous full year adjusted EBIT guidance and now expect to earn between $10.5 billion and $11 billion.

Our strategy is clear: Number one, grow our auto business with a whole new generation of vehicles focused on North America, focused on transforming our EV business and global products with much less capital. Number two, aggressively expand our auto adjacencies, software, services and parts, while strengthening our financing capability. And third, diversifying with Ford Energy. The objective is a more profitable, capital efficient and resilient Ford, one that achieves 8% adjusted EBIT margins by 2029 and deliver sustained earnings, cash flow and returns to our shareholders over time.

Let's start with our vehicles. In the third quarter, we continue to focus on the portfolio that leans into our strengths, truck, vans and utilities. Our pickup lineup gives customers an unmatched breadth of choice between vehicles, prices, trims and powertrains. In Q3, F-Series captured the highest retail share among all full-size truck brands and is on pace for the 50th straight year as America's best-selling truck. Maverick is America's best-selling hybrid pickup. Internationally, Ranger leads in many markets, including Australia and Europe. Early demand for the Ranger Super Duty is very strong already #1 heavy-duty medium-sized truck market in Australia in its first year, opening a very profitable opportunity for us. Transit continues to be the best-selling band in the U.S.

Ford also leads in 3-row SUVs in the U.S. with the Expedition and Explorer. We're also expanding access to customers through Ford Blue Oval Advantage, our certified preowned program, making Ford now the #1 certified preowned brand in the U.S. This program builds customer loyalty and positions Ford for our affordable new vehicles that will be coming in the next couple of years to our showrooms, and it really helps our resale values. In fact, we found that these used customers are 50% more likely than typical used car buyers to purchase a new Ford.

The foundation of our sustained growth is world-class quality. Of course, topping the J.D. Power's 2026 IQS study and reduction we've seen in warranty coverages is encouraging to all of us. Excluding Novelis and tariffs, we reduced warranty and material costs by $1.5 billion in '25 and are on track to reduce another $1 billion this year. But we have much more to do especially on long-term durability and the ownership experience.

We are accelerating our industrial system, including very aggressive next-generation vehicle cost reduction targets. The goal is a world-class industrial system, one that makes cost competitiveness and quality repeatable. Our Super Duty launch in Oakville, Ontario is an important example of this discipline. The production ramp is already exceeding planned daily volume and jobs per hour rates. We reached [indiscernible] last week and began shipping trucks to dealerships, and the quality we're seeing is fully competitive with our existing Super Duty plant, which is #1 in J.D. Powers.

The added capacity will give us flexibility for future plant changeovers and support profitable growth in retail, rental and outfitter channels.

We're bringing the same discipline to the next-generation F-150. Portotypes begin, builds are beginning in first quarter of '27, just a couple of months away, we have an incredible powertrain durability testing, which is now fivefold increase to meet our bulletproof powertrain target at Ford. We're doubling endurance and strength testing and increasing full vehicle test mileage by nearly 60% to almost 4 million miles. The F-150 will be the most extensively tested truck ever at Ford and we will apply this exact same approach across our company.

Alongside strengthening our best franchises, we're opening new paths to grow at more affordable price points. Next year, we will be launching our affordable midsized pickup for international markets. We expect the base material costs for this truck to be 20% lower than today's Ranger. Just as Maverick has done in the U.S., this truck is designed to bring new customers into the Ford truck lineup internationally at a cost structure that allows us to compete in this case with the Chinese.

And in Louisville, we are preparing the launch of the [ Fathom, ] our first vehicle off the UUV platform. rigorous testing and early supplier preparation are central to that effort. The launch remains on track for fourth quarter next year. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to drive our prototype. Wow, it completely blew me away, 0 to 60, huge room inside and the hands-free ADAS experience was like something I've never experienced. Fathom is really a breakthrough product. It's highly capable, innovative, affordable and that EV product will be available to more Americans way ahead of our competition. This will require high-level execution by our team to deliver on time and at cost.

An MSRP under $30,000 and the low cost of ownership is perfect for today's market. Fathom will offer something brand new for U.S. EV customers, an advanced zonal electric architecture, Ford's first 48-volt low-voltage system, along with a sophisticated advanced driver-assist capability, such as hands-free driving, an incredible rear-wheel drive performance feel and a lot of fun to drive. And bidirectional charging, so you can power your home with a Fathom when rates are high or during an outage, and there's so much more to this product that we're exciting to share with you.

Switching gears to our growing auto services business, software services, parts and financing. Now these auto adjacencies deepen our customers' relationship with us and create downstream value by enabling us to earn more over the life of each vehicle. Both software services and parts businesses achieved record revenue in the third quarter at highly accretive margins.

An important linkage exists here between software and parts, connected services help us anticipate maintenance over time, including a whole new software product called Prognostics at Ford, bringing customers to our remote service vans, almost 5,000 of them now, and our dealer network to keep their vehicles running 24/7. We found that when a retail customer combines a software subscription with regular service, the retention of the customer, especially for parts, is about 9 points higher. In parts specifically, we grew our U.S. wholesale business to third-party independent repair shops, and we've expanded a lot in Europe. A broader [ Motorcraft ] catalog also allows us to serve fleet customers of competitive brands and owners of much older Ford vehicles.

And Ford Credit has had a great third quarter. Notably, together with Ford Pro, Credit launched Ford Pro leasing in the third quarter. It's a big deal for Pro. And in commercial leasing to our fleet management, software and maintenance offerings will help us grow our Pro digital fleet management portfolio, which we will expect to be over 100,000 units by year-end. Many of those are non-Ford vehicles.

Turning to Ford Energy. The investment thesis is very clear. Ford is going to solve a meaningful customer problem, build on Ford's advantage and offer a credible path to material earnings with attractive returns in the short term. Our starting point is U.S.-manufactured grid-scale battery storage for companies building America's new power infrastructure and data centers. These customers need a domestic partner with a manufacturing know-how and scale and staying power to support them throughout the product's life.

We are progressing on 2 fronts: preparing our manufacturing capacity and securing customers. At our battery plant in Kentucky, we have met every single operating milestones so far. We have completed trial runs of [ electrode ] mixing, the first step in producing prismatic LFP battery cells, using the exact same process as our battery plant in Marshall, Michigan. We remain on track to bring 20 gigawatt hours of annual capacity online by the end of next year.

Commercial progress is encouraging and demand remains very strong. Executed contracts and late-stage negotiations together already currently account for more than 80% of Ford Energy's 2028 capacity. We are building a diverse customer base across solar, grid support and data centers, and we expect our 2028 capacity to be fully committed by Q1 of next year.

Pricing signals remain consistent with our investment assumptions. Negotiation for '29 and '30 capacity are already advancing with customers engaged way ahead of our initial expectations. The DC block gives us a practical starting point to build a broader capability. We expect attractive returns with short payback period, as I said.

Sherry now is going to take you through our financial performance.

Sherry House

Thank you, Jim, and hello, everyone. Our third quarter results reflect the deliberate actions we're taking to improve profitability and deliver consistent financial returns. Our increasingly fit industrial system, coupled with strong vehicle sales and auto adjacency performance enable adjusted EBIT growth of 3% despite 2% lower revenue as we sunset products like Escape and [ Corser ] to transition the Louisville assembly plant for the all-new Fathom.

Sequentially, revenue at $49.5 billion and adjusted EBIT at $2.7 billion were both higher despite being impacted by a short-term supplier disruption late in the quarter. We also generated $4.7 billion in company adjusted free cash flow in Q3 and ended the quarter with $25.3 billion in cash and $46.4 billion in total liquidity, maintaining our commitment to a strong investment-grade rating and to returning capital to shareholders. Today, we announced a fourth quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share.

This strong performance reflects the underlying quality of the sales accomplishments Jim mentioned as well as our progress toward a leaner, more-fit industrial system. We continue to see mixed strength in trucks and 3-row SUVs. Our higher-margin off-road passion products accounted for about 1/4 of our U.S. sales in Q3, up almost 4 points from a year ago. And our customers have been resilient amid higher fuel prices, interest rates and inflation.

We also continue to deliver efficiencies across the business, including the use of AI in our business segments and throughout our operations. These actions, together with our industrial improvements have helped us absorb the vast majority of headwinds from the Middle East conflict and rising commodity costs. It is this discipline and operational rigor that is taking root across board. In fact, it is directly benefiting our next-generation product pipeline where we're making real progress in improving the cost base across our products.

In addition, the traction in warranty and material cost improvement is strong again this year. Both were lower in the quarter and year-to-date, keeping us firmly on plan towards reducing these costs by $1 billion this year, excluding Novelis and tariffs. And we are leveraging these reductions to fund our investments in the Universal EV platform and Ford Energy.

At Novelis, operationally, the recovery is largely behind us. Financially, we have incurred about $1 billion in Novelis-related temporary costs year-to-date with some more to go in Q4, and we are still tracking to a net tailwind of about $1 billion in 2026.

Now let's turn to our segment results. In Ford Blue, we delivered $27.1 billion of revenue and $1.4 billion in EBIT, down 3% and 10%, respectively. Our performance primarily reflects lower volume, driven by product discontinuations and the impact of the Middle East conflict within the region and higher commodity costs.

Our underlying business continues to benefit from favorable mix. We saw significant year-to-date demand in the U.S. for Explorer with the higher-margin Tremor and Platinum series increasing sales by nearly 60%. F-Series performed well as we executed a disciplined go-to-market approach that yielded the highest share of revenue and lowest incentive spend in the third quarter. Lincoln also had an impressive quarter with both [ Nautilus ] and Aviator, experiencing double-digit sales growth in the U.S.

Our stock [ bubbles ] are healthy. We ended the quarter slightly below our target range of 55 to 65 retail days supply, and we increased gross stocks by about 6% versus Q2 2026. Our F-150 inventory improved quarter-over-quarter to 49 retail-day supply, though, is still below our ideal range, which provides us with upside as we work to restock to target levels. Overall, we expect stocks to return within our targeted levels by year-end.

For Model e, we improved EBIT by 25% year-over-year in the quarter, we reported an EBIT loss of $1.1 billion on revenue of $1.2 billion. These results reflect our focus on capital efficiency and structural cost reductions as we realize the benefits from rightsizing our Gen 1 volumes, while we continue to invest in our UEV platform and Ford Energy.

We are on track to improve GEN-1 EBIT by approximately 40% year-over-year in 2026 as we balance production and pricing with natural demand. In fact, in Q3, Mustang Mach-e had the lowest spend since 2023. Importantly, we are still targeting breakeven by 2029.

Ford Pro delivered another solid quarter with $17.8 billion of revenue, up 2% despite wholesale volumes being down 4%. Pro EBIT was $1.7 billion, down 16%, primarily due to higher commodities and temporary costs associated with the Oakville launch. Lower tariffs and favorable product mix driven by higher truck production as we recover from Novelis, partially offset these headwinds. 2027 model year signals are favorable as most commercial agreements are complete, with both fleet demand and pricing in line with our expectations.

Ford Credit delivered a great quarter with EBT of $803 million, up $172 million. These results reflect favorable performance in our derivatives, healthy financing margins and a supportive used vehicle pricing environment. Our high-quality portfolio of offerings across Ford Credit remains resilient, and we maintain a consistent, disciplined approach to risk management.

Jim talked earlier about the record quarter for software services and parts. I'd like to double-click on that. These auto adjacent businesses were significant drivers of the quarter's strong performance, contributing approximately 10% of the quarter's revenue at strong margins. The largest contributors to software services revenue growth in the quarter and year-to-date were Blue Cruise and Connectivity and we continue to see momentum in Ford Pro Intelligence.

Parts revenue growth this year has been driven by double-digit growth in our U.S. wholesale channel and the expansion of our retail and wholesale businesses in Europe. We are also increasing dealer service retention with digital and uptime tools to drive organic parts growth. We are excited about the prospects these auto adjacencies offer for continued accretive growth.

Now looking ahead to our full year 2026 outlook. We are confident in our full year trajectory and our planned investment cadence and now expect full year adjusted EBIT between $10.5 billion to $11 billion. Adjusted free cash flow and capital expenditures are unchanged at $6 billion to $7 billion and $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion, respectively. Our guidance does not include potential impacts of a significant escalation in the Middle East or a material downturn in the U.S. economy, which if either or both occurred, could have a substantial impact on industry demand.

For our full year segment outlook, we expect Ford Blue EBIT of about $5.5 billion, Ford Pro EBIT of about $7 billion, Model e losses remain unchanged at about [ $4 billion ] and Ford Credit EBT updated to about $2.8 billion. Our guidance now assumes a U.S. SAAR of 16.5 million units, commodity headwinds approaching $2.5 billion year-over-year, an increase of about $500 million as we continue to see increasing pressure from input costs. In addition, higher fuel prices are impacting our freight and energy costs. But notably, we are not seeing it impact customer demand for trucks and fleet vehicles at this point. We now expect full year U.S. industry pricing to be about 100 basis points higher year-over-year, which is 0.5 point higher than our previous assumption. And lastly, we continue to target $1 billion in material and warranty cost reductions, excluding Novelis and tariffs.

In summary, our ability to increase profits in Q3 and reflects the actions we have taken to optimize our product portfolio and create a business that is more efficient and agile in the face of increasing cost pressures, intensified global competition and an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

I'll now turn it back over to Jim to provide some commentary on 2027.

James Farley

Thank you, Sherry. At this point we targeting profitability next year to be roughly in line with this year with an even stronger automotive business that enables us to invest in our future. Our outlook reflects 3 things: investing in future growth, substantial external cost pressures and continued operating improvements.

Next year will be a foundational year on our journey to 8%. When we will have refreshed 70% of our global portfolio of vehicles by volume, we are allocating a majority of that investment to North America, where we will be expanding our truck and utility lineup. Additionally, Ford Pro will be expanding their global lineup for Transit and Ranger with all new price points. Additionally, we are investing in our plants for our new F-150, which will require planned production downtime next year. we expect the added Super Duty capacity at Oakville to largely offset the impact of that downtime.

We will also continue to grow our investments in the Universal Electric Vehicle platform ahead of Fathom's launch and bring Ford Energy's 20 gigawatt hours of capacity online, both of which are key to the Model e turnaround by 2029.

In auto adjacencies, we expect continued growth in software services and parts to increase the contribution from reoccurring and countercyclical revenues. This accretive growth should help offset certain macro headwinds we expect at Ford Credit. We currently expect commodities, memory and logistics costs to represent a year-over-year headwind of about $2 billion at Ford. Our current plan is that the improved reliability and capability of our industrial system, together with revenue optimization and a company-wide efficiency on cost will allow us to offset the expected headwinds that I just walked through.

We intend to finish this year strong, execute in '27 with great profitability and investments and with discipline to build towards that target of 8% adjusted EBIT by '29.

We'd like to take your questions now.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan.

Phần hỏi đáp

Rajat Gupta

Great. And appreciate all the color on 2027. I'm assuming the commodities, logistics, the memory headwinds stay where they are right now at the $2 billion guide. Just curious how much of the 2027 offset stack that you've pointed to is within your control today? How much is -- how much of that you still need to work on just because a lot of the inflation has happened in the last 3, 4 months. Just curious to get your thoughts on that and like how comfortable you are with that '27 guide? And what more needs to be done to get there? And I have a quick follow-up.

Sherry House

Yes, sure. Thank you so much for your question. I would say that the areas that we see more in our control would be the areas of revenue optimization, continued software and parts growth and also continued savings as well. And I can give you a little bit more color on that, too, if that would be helpful.

I mean on the market equation side, as you know, mix optimization is something where we have made huge progress this year, and we expect that progress to continue into next year. We have transformed our sales and operating plan and are now leveraging AI tools that are enabling us to match demand sensing to capacity planning, and that's leading to more production stability, which leads to real savings.

We also have better inventory and pricing models for both vehicles and parts, and that's leading to faster turn rates and leaner stocks and just an overall disciplined approach and management of our market equation. So that is going to be an area that's in our control. We're continuing to get better through tech modernization.

On the structural cost side, we're already working plans. We've been at this for 6 months already going into 2027. And in fact, we're already looking ahead in populating profit improvement actions for both '28 and '29 as well. And then as I said, we're going to continue to see, we believe, increased revenues in both the software and the parts growth area. And as I just mentioned in my comments here a moment ago, we've now seen those combined, representing 10% of our revenues at accretive gross margins. So this is an area that is in our control areas that we're focused on, and we're seeing the benefits of that to stabilize our returns in the face of things like commodities in an uncertain macro environment.

James Farley

I would only add that our day supply on F-150 and Super Duty, is a major accomplishment compared to our competitors. It's real -- we're going into '27, as Sherry said in her speech, in a really good situation in our truck business.

Rajat Gupta

Understood. That's very helpful color. And then just on UEV with the deliveries expected next year, just curious what remains to be derisked between now and launch when it comes to supplier readiness, software validation, just battery costs, how much of the path to the modeling breakeven depends on UEV hitting its volume and cost targets on schedule?

A. Kumar Galhotra

This is Kumar. Let me give you some color on the status of the launch. It's progressing very well. 90% of the validation testing has been completed. We've built our first production line vehicles on at [indiscernible] assembly plant. So we're starting to prove out our production processes.

One of the key new technologies for Fathom is unit castings. We've already produced 5,000 of them. So we're proving out our capability to run at rate, and that's gone really well. And to be specific about your question on what risk remains to be mitigated, it's primarily in the supply base. We need to make sure that the supply base can run at rate with high-quality parts. And that's very normal at this stage of the launch, and that's what we're going to be working on for the next few months.

James Farley

The other element of the Fathom launch is critical is the revenue picture, which actually seems to be strengthening. Andrew, do you want to highlight the change in the U.S. EV market and how that relates to the profitability modeling?

Andrew Frick

Yes. I mean, the market, as we've learned over the last couple of years is definitely in the U.S. specifically is not acting as a monolith, especially when it comes to the affordable EVs. We've actually seen EV prices go up about 10%, which has priced a lot of new vehicles out of the affordable market. So the customer is very limited with their new vehicle options. In fact, a lot of them are looking to the used market.

So we're now looking at the EV market as new and used. We're about -- over half now of the vehicles sold under $40,000 are used vehicles. That's really important because as you said, Jim, the Fathom starting MSRP is at $28,350. That's going to be right in the heart of the market. And it's not just the EV market. It's actually opening us up to a massive total addressable market. If you know that nearly 50% of the U.S. new vehicle industry transacts under $40,000. So not only do we expect Fathom for the reasons you mentioned earlier to attract new and used EV buyers but also ICE hybrid customers, especially because we're going to have much lower operating costs than even a mainstream hybrid vehicle.

So the customer response on what we've shared so far has been really strong. We're preparing for the launch, and we'll be launching our preorder program in the first quarter, and we'll have more to share with everyone at that time as we get close...

James Farley

We're feeling pretty good about the industrial preparation and the revenue picture. It's impressive to me to see that the used -- the EV market is above 8% of U.S. industry now. And that's including all the issues Andrew just highlighted and the lack of affordability options. So I think we're -- it's a lot of work to still be done. We have a year to go. I think we're positioned really well, which will be 1 of the 2 big drivers turning around Model e -- the vehicle side of Model e.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question will come from Emmanuel Rosner with Wolfe Research.

Emmanuel Rosner

Great. Maybe just following up here on Model e. So I know for 2027 overall for the company's stable results versus 2026. Are you still looking to improve model within that EBIT? And maybe what are the moving pieces within that? Are you planning similar or higher investments into this UEV and BSS? And then what are the drivers of improvement on the car side of the business?

Sherry House

Great. Emmanuel, thank you so much for your question. So you just heard about the Model e operational steps that we're taking in the milestones there. From a financial perspective, as I said in my comments, we're working towards our target for Model e to reach breakeven by 2029. The progress isn't going to be linear, and we're now expecting higher expenses in 2027 as the plants coming into focus.

So let me give you a little bit of what we're seeing. We think that the next step-function change in profitability is going to happen in the first half of 2028 as UEV and Ford Energy both ramp with revenue on both. So if you break that down a bit, you're going to see Fathom launching towards the end of the year with the first derivative of the platform, then you're going to have that full year of production in 2028, then we're going to be escalating the Ford Energy business with investment, full year production also by 2028. And then new is the launch of the European partnership products by 2028. So there will be investment in that in 2027, and the full year of production on those will be by 2029.

So you're going to have those investments that are happening through '27 with the unlock really starting to unleash as you get into 2028 and '29.

Operator

Your next question comes from Tom Narayan with RBC.

Gautam Narayan

My question has to do with Ford Blue in Europe. China has about 60 million vehicles of auto production capacity. It's consuming about 20 million a year and exporting 10 million. A decent portion going to Europe, and then this has been worsened by weakening domestic sales in China. I know you have a JV with [ Geely ] in Valencia, the partnerships with Renault and BW, are these enough to rightsize your capacity in Europe? Or do you need further actions from the EU to halt Chinese exports?

James Farley

Thanks for your question. Europe is quite different than what's happening in Southeast Asia and LATAM for the China competition. So I appreciate your question specific to Europe.

And the situation in Europe is very different because the EU has such a strong EV mandate, and as you said, there's a lot of open capacity in Europe, not just to export it from China. We do feel like we know we have the right plan to right the ship in terms of our passenger car profitability with Renault and Geely, as you mentioned. Those are very low capital investments with really great cost levels, especially for the EV portion of our lineup that will allow us to to replace unprofitable EVs with very -- with much better profit outlooks on EV.

The commercial side is also under pressure in Europe, and we have a pretty exciting lineup, especially around the EV requirements for the commercial business, the Pro business. There's a lot of negative profit pressure, but we have a really good solution coming next year that we're really excited about. I think the combination of both will make sense.

As far as the capacity utilization that you mentioned, your specific question at this point, I don't want to get into the details other than working through the opportunity in Valencia, in Romania and Turkey. So thank you. We are completely committed to building a profitable European business with these actions. We've been on it for several years, and we have a really aggressive plan.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joseph Spak with UBS.

Joseph Spak

I guess I just want to start with some of your comments around the F-150 and not to sort of get -- just sort of really buckle down on this. I think you mentioned that F-150 stock, you expect to recover to target levels by the end of the year. And I want to be clear on this because you've talked about stock in terms of days historically, and I think even in your prepared remarks, but seasonally, we always see end of year December is much lower than September. So when you say recover to correct levels, are you talking back to that base level because that will mean a pretty significant increase in absolute inventory?

Andrew Frick

Thanks, Joe. It's Andrew. No. I think when we talk specifically to our F-150 stock, we're running at 49 days coming out of September. That is below our range. As we look at towards the year-end, we will be running probably on the low end of that. We'll continue to run on the low end of that. And as Jim mentioned, below our competitive set.

We've seen really high days to turn on our units that we have in stock. In fact, we just came out of the third quarter where we had the fastest turn rates of the year, and they were faster than any of our competitors in the segment. And that's really helping us manage our overall market equation, as we mentioned, but we do not expect to see our stocks building to a much higher level at the end of this year.

James Farley

Just want to reinforce and be specific to your question. You said dig-in, I think that's great. For me, over the last many years, a normal stocking level for F-150 could have been 80 to 100 days supply in the past. I just want to reinforce what Sherry said, our target is that 50, low 60-day supply. And I think by the end of this year, we're going to be in that range. That is substantially lower than Ford's operated. And it's really allowed us to build that disciplined full-size truck business, while we watch our competitors play a very different game.

And our dealers are very anxious for more stock. Our mix is good and our turn rates is really what we're focused on now, as Andrew said. So I would say, to answer your question simply, that 55- to 60-day range that that Sherry talked about is historically much lower than we normally run our truck business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of James Picariello with BNP Paribas.

James Picariello

Just to follow on to Joe's question on the F-Series recovery and inventory, is the 150,000 units recovery targets still cleanly intact? Or is that number lower and there's something else to favorably offset and keep that net $1 billion in the guide intact? Is it better price mix? Or is that volume target still...

Sherry House

So here's how I answer that. On the Novelis recovery, it has been going as planned operationally. And we're now running at rate and most -- the vast majority of the materials have been validated, and we're going to continue to run at rate in Q4 as our plan.

When you get to the financial side of it, we have seen costs coming in a little bit lower and the volumes have been proportionately a little bit lower, too. And so that's going to enable us to continue to keep with the guide that we said at the outset of the year, which is $1 billion of a net tailwind by the end of 2026 as it relates to this set of products.

Operator

Your next question comes from Andrew Percoco with Morgan Stanley.

Andrew Percoco

So I guess to start out, a 2-part question here. First, I want to ask a follow-up on energy storage. I think you guys provided a great update in your prepared remarks, it sounds like you're 80% contracted for 2028. So I guess that would imply about 16 gigawatt hours kind of in the backlog. But I think you also said that, that included contracted backlog as well as late-stage negotiations. So I guess, did I get that right? And is there any other information or color you can kind of provide in terms of what needs to happen to maybe get that full 16 gigawatt hours fully contracted versus late stage? Just kind of curious what the final steps are there?

And then my second question, coming back to what Tom asked about in terms of China. Obviously, exports are continuing to increase pretty substantially out of the region. The domestic market feels fairly saturated. Can you just talk to how you expect that to impact your business at a higher level, not just in Europe, but just globally and what you think needs to be done to make sure that that's not going to create a bigger disruption for you guys going forward?

James Farley

Dave, why don't you handle Ford Energy? .

Unknown Executive

Yes. So Andrew, this is [ Dave Carroll. ] First, just to cover your first question. We're actually not talking about backlog today. We were going to start disclosing that next year. And what we -- what Jim had indicated in his remarks is that we are actually ahead of expectations where we are with our customers. And we see that primarily Ford Energy is very excited about the quality of the product that we have in the market. We believe it's one of the highest quality products out there in the market that you can buy. And we're seeing that from our customers. And we believe that's what's bringing the customers to us as we're moving forward.

In fact, last week, we had 1 of our customers out of our Marshall manufacturing facility where they toured where we're producing LFP prismatic cells right now, and they toured that factory and came out saying, it's top tier of all the factories they've seen globally. So we're very excited that we have the highest quality product in the market, and we believe that's what's driving the customers to us.

James Farley

Yes. And I think for backlog, that would be something we'll probably get more transparency on next year, right?

Unknown Executive

Yes, that's correct.

James Farley

So thanks for your question. And we have a lot to do with Fort Energy, but really promising start, and we're going to open the aperture for all the investors more and more as time goes on.

As far as China is concerned, thank you for your question. Frankly, we've held up really well internationally as the Chinese gain more and more share in open and closed markets. Where we see the competition of the most intense is LATAM and Southeast Asia, where we have a large Ranger business. And in both cases, Ranger is still doing very well because it competes at a much higher price point. And as I said, we're going to be going into their price point next year with this new affordable truck. So we'll see how that plays out, but we're confident.

In addition, I think Ford is the #1 traditional OEM exporting from China. It's been our strategy for several years now. The Territory is our second most profitable vehicle globally, and it is really successful for us. And I think the exports are up, I don't know, like 60%. It's a really big improvement. And we expect to continue to take advantage of that for the open markets, especially.

I kind of tried to give a view on Europe, so I won't be repetitive, but that's where we -- for Ford, that's where we see the real pressure on our business with the Chinese. It's really in Europe. It's not just the Chinese, it's the EV mandates by the EU, which we expect them to address over time as well as the U.K. and all the overcapacity in Europe that's been there for many, many years.

As far as the rest of the world, I think we're well positioned not only now, but with our new lineup. And our global partnerships will give us a lot of opportunity. We have learned so much exporting from China. It's been really a very successful exercise for Ford with very low capital. And we've learned a lot about China cost as well as China cost in places where it needs to be localized, like Thailand, in Europe over time. So I think we're well positioned. The issue for us in the short term is really Europe.

Operator

Your next question will come from Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

Jairam Nathan

So I just wanted to understand the ability to upsell on the Fathom and the starting point of below $30,000 is pretty good, but I just wanted to understand how would you -- what ways you can absolute that?

James Farley

Do you mean -- just so we understand the question, you mean how do we get to a point where it's profitable at that price point? Is that what you mean by the offset? .

Jairam Nathan

No, not offset, upsell, the upsell the vehicle kind of offering like getting a bit of mix on the vehicle beyond that $30,000 -- under $30,000.

James Farley

I see. I see. Okay. Thank you. Yes, great question. I think we're already pretty deep in in a lot of intelligence, a lot of customers have shown interest in the vehicles or learning a lot. There's a lot to that strategy at Ford to offer customers a lot of options beyond the $28,000. Andrew, I'll let you highlight the 3 or 4 key points.

Andrew Frick

Yes. I think 1 -- and we'll get more into this when we do a full review of the product. You'll learn a lot more about our positioning strategy. But the starting price of the $28,350 is just that. We'll have a range that goes to the high $30,000 range. And we'll have a couple of different offerings within that. So I would say we will give you a lot more detail around this, the offerings themselves as we get closer. It's probably too soon to share more at this point.

James Farley

The big breakthrough conceptually for us about customers buying nicer Fathoms are really on the digital side. We put in an advanced electric architecture, a 48-volt system, so we can offer an incredibly low cost, very advanced ADAS as well as digital camera, dashboard. I won't go into all the details that Andrew said, but the digital suite, including the embedded Apple Maps, is really a game changer for any EV, let alone at this price. I think for me, personally, that is going to be the most exciting upsell opportunity. It's really the long-term subscription and digital experience for the customer.

Operator

Our next question will come from Mark Delaney with Goldman Sachs.

Mark Delaney

I was hoping you could give a bit more color on what Ford is seeing for pricing. The company took up its view of U.S. industry pricing by a little bit for 2026. Maybe you can share a bit more on what's driving that? And then also on the topic more broadly, any early views on pricing for 2027, including what you're seeing in Pro with the annual negotiations, which I think are now well underway.

James Farley

That's a big question. Thank you for asking. So Andrew and Alicia, I think you should bring that...

Andrew Frick

Yes. Maybe I'll start with the retail side. Thanks, Mark. Yes, we're seeing a very strong pricing environment right now. We expect pricing to be up about a percentage point this year. And as we look into next year, we think there's a lot of different levers that we'll be able to work with with our product mix and and net pricing, both the top line but also our variable marketing as well, just very similar to how we approach this year.

The industry remains really strong. We're seeing the segmentation remain strong, very really big resilience with customer base, especially in trucks and utilities, which is really playing to our advantage, and we expect that to continue into next year. And Alicia, do you want to comment on what you're seeing in the early part of commercial side?

Alicia S. Davis

Yes. I could just also on pricing per fleet. We're also seeing strong pricing year-over-year over 1%. But as Sherry mentioned, our fleet demand orders for '27 model year are on target. We're excited about Oakville and that capacity because that's going to allow us to really grow our truck rental sales, we can return to our pre-pandemic levels where the economics are really favorable for us. We are also able to take a larger share of wallet for our large commercial customers. And then we're able to supply more chassis [ cabins ] to the body modifiers, and we are very competitive in that space, and we have been constrained, and so we're excited about the ability to really meet this unmet demand and the strong order take that we're seeing so far gives us confidence that we'll continue to grow there.

James Farley

The upside for next year for Pro is pretty meaningful between Oakville and getting past Novelis. It's really a great opportunity for us at Ford.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of [ John Sieger ] with Evercore ISI.

Unknown Analyst

Yes. I just wanted to take one more shot at BSS. You had mentioned the discussions for '29 and '30, advancing kind of ahead of your prior expectations. What do you need to see in terms of commitment capacity to start to think about expanding beyond that first 20 gigawatt hours. And then what does incremental CapEx look like for that?

And then maybe if I could ask a follow-up on just the impact to earnings as we go through the course of the year as you go through the ramp to get towards the fourth quarter of 20 gigawatt hours of capacity. Could you just -- maybe give us some puts and takes there.

Unknown Executive

Yes. So John, so obviously, the team is really -- this is Dave. The team is really focused on launching the initial 20 gigawatt hours that we have to bring online and ramp up in 2028. That being said, we are already evaluating scenarios, how we could best expand capacity, expand our offerings to our customers because we do see the real demand there. But when we're doing so, we do consider the returns on our investment. We consider the customer demand, the tax treatment and other strategic uses of capital. So we do see upside at our Kentucky 1 facility. We're excited for the potential growth, but we don't have anything to announce today in that regard.

James Farley

Sherry, any tips you want to give on the spending for Ford Energy next year?

Sherry House

The only thing I would give is that we had talked about around $2 billion of investment, and we're going to spend about 1/3 of that this year and about 2/3 next year. So that gives you a little bit more understanding.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy with Barclays.

Dan Levy

I wanted to ask about the partnership with Geely. I believe part of the partnership is to establish learnings from them. So maybe you could just be a bit more concrete. What you hope to learn within supply base and designing the vehicle? And then I'll just extend that question to how you plan to achieve profitability on Fathom, which I think you've talked about sort of indexing or benchmarking against the Chinese, some of the supply chain opportunities there. So maybe you can talk about what you're doing with Geely and maybe how some of that potentially extends to how you're going to achieve the right cost that you need to...

A. Kumar Galhotra

So let me break it down into 2 pieces. It's cost and it's quality. We are already learning that they can offer a certain percentage lower cost landed in Europe for us. So we're going through part by part, understanding each system.

On speed, we're learning there are a few months faster than this. And we're going through each part of the product development system to understand how they are faster than this. And a combination of both of those items is being institutionalized into our own global product development system.

James Farley

On the UEV, we always set our target even 4 years ago with imagining what a BYD could do in Mexico. Not because we knew -- not because we counted on that happening, but because we knew that ultimately that platform is going to be competitive. We had to make sure even in the U.S. would be fully competitive. So that's why we took such a big swing at the innovation because we had to.

The big breakthroughs in general, on the cost for for that product is really a couple of things in general. The first is the e-box and the whole electronics and electrical architecture and ADAS is much, much lower cost than supply chain. So we did that all in-house and the big benefit would be the cost and the design cost of that.

Number two, is we radically simplified the parts. So the 2 large unit castings, that Kumar talked about, derisking the 5,000 we've already built, that is a radical enabler for much lower part count in the vehicle. And then obviously, the labor content is much lower in the vehicle by intention.

But there's another area that we really found to be quite advantaged relative to a BYD. And that is the efficiency of our motors, gearbox and inverters, which are about 30% more efficient than theirs and allows us to design a battery that's much less. And so that -- I think that's really critical.

The LFP cell in Marshall is another big enabler. And I think you get the point, which is like every part of this project had to be world-class, Chinese cost efficiency in order to commence ourselves, we would be fully competitive. But it also introduced a lot of new technology and frankly, a lot of new suppliers.

And so what we learned from UEV and what we're learning from Geely and we want to keep strategically in the company are all getting captured at the same moment for Kumar and his team is now curating how that all is going to work along with our AI tools that Sherry mentioned. And that's why we mentioned the heart and soul of our company is going to be this new industrial system enabled by all that benchmarking, including suppliers, manufacturing efficiency, all the way to how fast we create the vehicle. That's exciting for us because it's quite a big change for Ford.

A. Kumar Galhotra

A real concrete example is the motors and the [indiscernible] that you mentioned in are being -- now being transported into our hybrid systems for the rest of our portfolio.

James Farley

And we're putting a lot of pressure on ourselves to make sure that whether it's UEV or Geely or [ JMC, ] we -- or AI tools, we are going to move that into the core part of the company as fast as we can.

Operator

This concludes the Ford Motor Company Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.