Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh Quý 3/2026 của Noble Corporation (NE): Giá trị hợp đồng tồn đọng đạt 6,7 tỷ USD

Noble Corporation (NYSE: NE) đã báo cáo doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 684 triệu USD và EBITDA đã điều chỉnh đạt 201 triệu USD. Dòng tiền tự do ở mức âm 48 triệu USD do chi tiêu vốn tiếp tục ở mức cao, trong khi các hợp đồng mới đã nâng tổng giá trị hợp đồng tồn đọng (backlog) lên 6,7 tỷ USD.

Các điểm chính

• Doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 684 triệu USD, EBITDA đã điều chỉnh là 201 triệu USD và biên EBITDA đã điều chỉnh đạt 28%. EBITDA đã điều chỉnh giảm 5% so với quý trước, chủ yếu do một số giàn khoan đang trong giai đoạn chuyển tiếp giữa các hợp đồng.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt tổng cộng 144 triệu USD, trong khi chi phí vốn đạt 192 triệu USD dẫn đến dòng tiền tự do âm 48 triệu USD.
• Noble đã giành được các hợp đồng mới trị giá khoảng 560 triệu USD trong ba tháng qua. Tổng giá trị hợp đồng tồn đọng đạt 6,7 tỷ USD tính đến ngày 26 tháng 10, bao gồm khoảng 2,6 tỷ USD dự kiến sẽ chuyển thành doanh thu trong năm 2027.
• Công ty đã thu hẹp dự báo doanh thu năm 2026 xuống khoảng 2,85 tỷ đến 2,90 tỷ USD và dự báo EBITDA đã điều chỉnh xuống 850 triệu đến 900 triệu USD. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến EBITDA đã điều chỉnh quý 4 sẽ thấp hơn một chút so với quý 3.
• Noble duy trì chương trình hoàn trả vốn cho cổ đông, chi trả cổ tức hàng quý 0,50 USD/cổ phiếu và công bố mức cổ tức 0,50 USD/cổ phiếu cho quý 4.
• Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến EBITDA đã điều chỉnh sẽ duy trì tương đối ổn định trong quý 1/2027 so với quý 4/2026, sau đó tăng đáng kể qua từng quý khi công suất ký hợp đồng tăng lên. Công suất đội giàn khoan đã ký hợp đồng trong nửa cuối năm 2027 hiện cao hơn khoảng 20% so với nửa đầu năm.

Dữ liệu tài chính chính

Thương vụ bán Noble Resolve đã hoàn tất vào ngày 9 tháng 10, mang lại 45 triệu USD tiền thu còn lại. Noble cũng dự kiến giao dịch bán Noble Globetrotter II trị giá 38 triệu USD sẽ hoàn tất trong quý 4/2026. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết giàn khoan này sẽ rời khỏi đội giàn khoan sau khi giao dịch hoàn tất.

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

EBITDA đã điều chỉnh quý 3 thấp hơn phản ánh số ngày ký hợp đồng giảm đối với Noble BlackRhino, Noble Discoverer, Noble Venturer và Noble Globetrotter I. Điều này được bù đắp một phần nhờ hai giàn khoan tái hoạt động tại Brazil vào tháng 7 và hợp đồng bắt đầu vào tháng 8 của Noble Gerry de Souza.

Noble Voyager đã bắt đầu hợp đồng 4 năm với Shell tại Vịnh Mỹ vào cuối tháng 9, trễ hơn vài tuần so với kế hoạch do khâu nghiệm thu cuối cùng và sự cố chậm trễ do thời tiết. Noble Valiant và Noble Discoverer dự kiến sẽ bắt đầu chiến dịch phát triển dài hạn cho TotalEnergies tại Suriname vào khoảng cuối năm 2026.

Các hợp đồng mới được trao gần đây bao gồm:

• Noble BlackRhino: Hợp đồng 4 giếng khoan với TotalEnergies tại Nigeria, dự kiến bắt đầu trong vòng vài tuần và kéo dài khoảng 150 ngày, với các tùy chọn bổ sung tối đa 6 giếng khoan.
• Noble Faye Kozack: Hợp đồng 5 giếng khoan với Tullow tại Ghana, dự kiến bắt đầu vào giữa năm 2027 với thời gian ước tính khoảng 250 ngày.
• Noble Globetrotter I: Thỏa thuận giữ chỗ công suất thời hạn 3 năm với TotalEnergies cho dịch vụ can thiệp giếng nhẹ, với phạm vi công việc đầu tiên dự kiến tại Angola vào quý 3 hoặc quý 4/2027. Trước đó, giàn khoan này dự kiến sẽ tham gia chiến dịch thăm dò 2 giếng khoan của Occidental tại Peru bắt đầu từ quý 2/2027.
• Noble BlackHawk: Hợp đồng 1 giếng khoan với Apache tại Uruguay dự kiến bắt đầu vào quý 4/2027. Hợp đồng ước tính kéo dài 50 ngày này trị giá khoảng 25 triệu USD, chưa bao gồm chi phí huy động, giải thể lực lượng, khoan kiểm soát áp suất và các dịch vụ khác.
• Noble Interceptor: Một giếng khoan cho DNO dự kiến vào giữa năm 2027, tiếp theo là chương trình trám hủy giếng kéo dài khoảng 670 ngày cho ConocoPhillips tại Ekofisk bắt đầu từ quý 3/2027.
• Noble Intrepid: Hợp đồng 1 giếng khoan cho ORLEN dự kiến bắt đầu vào quý 3/2027 và kéo dài từ 40–60 ngày.

Ban lãnh đạo cho biết 109 trong số 110 giàn khoan vùng nước siêu sâu đang thương mại hóa đã được ký hợp đồng hiện tại hoặc cho công việc trong tương lai, đạt tỷ lệ sử dụng theo hợp đồng là 99%. Tỷ lệ sử dụng hoạt động hiện tại vẫn ở mức 88 giàn khoan, thấp hơn 10 giàn so với đỉnh năm 2024. Giá thuê ngày mới nhất dành cho các tàu khoan cao cấp được cho là dao động từ khoảng hơn 450.000 USD đến 500.000 USD/ngày.

Thị trường Na Uy cũng đang mạnh lên đối với Noble. 4 trong số 5 giàn khoan tự nâng CJ-70 của công ty hiện đã được ký hợp đồng tại đây, với giá thuê ngày mới nhất dao động từ 230.000 USD đến 300.000 USD tùy thuộc vào chế độ làm việc và thời hạn. Noble Innovator vẫn chưa có hợp đồng, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết họ lạc quan về khả năng giành được hợp đồng ở vùng phía Nam Biển Bắc.

Dự báo của Ban lãnh đạo

Chi phí vốn hoàn trả từ khách hàng dự kiến đạt tổng cộng khoảng 65 triệu USD trong năm 2026, so với mức 25 triệu USD dự kiến trước đó.

Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến EBITDA đã điều chỉnh quý 1/2027 sẽ tương tự như quý 4/2026, tiếp theo là mức tăng trưởng theo quý đáng kể trong thời gian còn lại của năm 2027. Triển vọng này được hỗ trợ bởi công suất ký hợp đồng trong nửa cuối năm 2027 cao hơn khoảng 20% so với nửa đầu năm, cùng các cơ hội hợp đồng giữa năm bổ sung đang được theo đuổi.

Chi phí vốn ròng đã chuẩn hóa được chỉ ra ở mức gần cận trên của khoảng 300 triệu đến 400 triệu USD đã thảo luận trước đó, không bao gồm Noble Claus Bachmann. Hơn một nửa chi tiêu cho dự án Noble Claus Bachmann dự kiến sẽ diễn ra vào năm 2027. Đầu tư cho đội giàn khoan dự kiến sẽ tiếp tục ở mức cao cho đến khoảng giữa năm 2027 trước khi lợi nhuận và khả năng tạo dòng tiền tự do liên quan gia tăng.

Rủi ro và các khía cạnh cần theo dõi

• Các giai đoạn chuyển tiếp hợp đồng và sự chậm trễ dự án đã làm giảm số ngày ký hợp đồng trong quý 3. Khâu nghiệm thu và thời tiết đã làm trễ lịch khởi công Noble Voyager, trong khi việc khởi công muộn hơn của Noble Voyager và Noble Valiant đã ảnh hưởng đến dự báo EBITDA cả năm.
• Khu vực Vịnh Mỹ vẫn là một thị trường yếu hơn, với số lượng giàn khoan giảm từ mức hơn 20 giàn trong những năm gần đây xuống khoảng 15 giàn. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sẽ có một số cải thiện vào năm 2027 nhưng cho biết việc các tàu khoan rời đi có thể tạo ra áp lực tăng giá thuê ngày để thu hút công suất quay trở lại.
• Giá hàng hóa cao hơn vẫn chưa tạo ra mức tăng rõ rệt về nhu cầu khoan. Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng nguyên nhân là do kỷ luật vốn tiếp tục được khách hàng duy trì và sự thiếu chắc chắn về giá dầu trong ngắn hạn do các yếu tố địa chính trị.
• Một số giàn khoan vẫn còn công suất trống trong năm 2027, bao gồm Noble Viking, Noble BlackHawk và Noble Stanley Lafosse. Ban lãnh đạo đang tìm kiếm hợp đồng để lấp đầy các khoảng trống này, nhưng vẫn chưa chốt được hợp đồng cho tất cả các khoảng thời gian còn trống.
• Lạm phát chi phí đang ảnh hưởng đến kỳ vọng chi phí vốn đã chuẩn hóa, trong khi các đợt nâng cấp giàn khoan lớn sẽ tiếp tục ngốn vốn cho đến giữa năm 2027.

Điểm nổi bật phần Q&A với chuyên gia phân tích

Nhu cầu vùng nước sâu: Ban lãnh đạo đã xác định Vịnh Mỹ và Ấn Độ là những thay đổi tích cực nhất trong 90 ngày qua. Noble nhận thấy 2 đến 3 cơ hội tại Vịnh Mỹ đang tiến gần hơn đến trạng thái chốt hợp đồng chính thức và tin rằng Ấn Độ có thể cần 2 đến 4 tàu khoan bắt đầu từ cuối năm 2027 và 2028.

Triển vọng thăm dò: Khách hàng ngày càng chú trọng đến việc bù đắp trữ lượng và hoạt động thăm dò trong 18 tháng qua. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết năm 2027 có thể mang lại nhiều hoạt động thăm dò hoang dã (wildcat) hơn, mặc dù các hợp đồng thăm dò hiện tại chưa đủ lớn để thay đổi đáng kể triển vọng kinh doanh tổng thể của Noble. Các dự án phát triển vẫn là động lực chính của tăng trưởng nhu cầu dự kiến cho đến cuối năm 2027.

Hiệu quả kinh tế của Globetrotter I: Thỏa thuận dịch vụ can thiệp thời hạn 3 năm bao gồm tối thiểu 150 ngày hoạt động hàng năm. Ban lãnh đạo dự kiến chương trình sẽ đạt mức hòa vốn dòng tiền ở mức cam kết tối thiểu, với tiềm năng gia tăng biên lợi nhuận khi có thêm các công việc phát sinh. Một năm thuận lợi có thể tiến gần 300 ngày hoạt động, trong khi kết quả trung bình có thể ở mức hơn 200 ngày.

Mức giá tại Guyana: Mức giá cho các giàn khoan của Noble tại Guyana được đàm phán dựa trên thị trường toàn cầu đối với tàu khoan Cấp 1 (Tier 1). Mức giá 6 tháng gần nhất đã được ấn định khoảng một tháng trước cuộc họp báo và sẽ áp dụng từ ngày 1 tháng 1 năm 2027. Noble không tiết lộ mức giá cụ thể.

Công suất giàn khoan trống: Ban lãnh đạo cho biết Noble Viking có khả năng đạt tỷ lệ sử dụng khoảng 50% trong năm 2027 nếu giành được thêm hợp đồng tại Đông Nam Á. Noble BlackHawk và Noble BlackRhino có nhiều cơ hội vào cuối năm 2027 và 2028, trong khi Noble Stanley Lafosse có thể quay lại làm việc bên ngoài nước Mỹ vào cuối năm 2027 hoặc đầu năm 2028.

Đầu tư đội giàn khoan: Đến cuối năm 2027, ban lãnh đạo dự kiến tất cả các tàu khoan Cấp 1 sẽ có năng lực khoan kiểm soát áp suất. Các nâng cấp khác bao gồm tháp khoan có công suất cao hơn, bộ bù lắc đặt trên đỉnh tháp khoan (crown-mounted compensators) ở những nơi cần thiết và chân vịt đẩy lớn hơn trên phần lớn đội giàn khoan. Ban lãnh đạo mô tả đây là những khoản đầu tư trong suốt vòng đời tài sản nhằm nâng cao khả năng cạnh tranh trong các dự án phát triển toàn cầu.

Toàn văn Biên bản cuộc họp báo cáo kết quả kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Hello, and thank you for standing by. My name is Lacy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Noble Corporation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Ian MacPherson. Please go ahead.

Ian MacPherson

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everyone, to Noble Corporation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. You can find a copy of our earnings report, along with the supporting statements and schedules on our website at noblecorp.com. We will reference an earnings presentation as well that's posted on the Investor Relations page of our website. Today's call will feature prepared remarks from our President and CEO, Robert Eifler, as well as our CFO, Richard Barker. We also have with us Blake Denton, Senior Vice President of Marketing and Contracts; and Joey Kawaja, Senior Vice President of Operations.

During this call, we may make certain forward-looking statements regarding various matters related to our business and companies that are not historical facts. Such statements are based upon current expectations and assumptions of management and are, therefore, subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from these forward-looking statements, including those described in our earnings release and in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. Noble does not assume any obligation to update these statements. Also note, we are referencing non-GAAP financial measures on the call today. You can find the required supplemental disclosure for these measures, including the most directly comparable GAAP measure and associated reconciliation in our earnings report issued yesterday, furnished to the SEC and posted to our website.

Now I'll turn the call over to Robert Eifler, President and CEO of Noble.

Robert Eifler

Thanks, Ian. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I'll open today's call with a brief summary of our third quarter highlights and recent contract awards, followed by an update on the market. Richard will then cover the financials before I wrap up with closing remarks and move to Q&A.

During the third quarter, we earned adjusted EBITDA of $201 million with free cash flow of negative $48 million. We again distributed our $0.50 quarterly dividend. And yesterday, our Board declared a $0.50 per share dividend for the fourth quarter, maintaining our consistent return of capital program. The 5% sequential decrease in adjusted EBITDA resulted from a number of rigs transitioning between contracts, including the BlackRhino Discoverer Venturer and Globetrotter I, each of which had fewer days on contract in Q3 compared to Q2. These were partially offset by the resumed operation of our 2 rigs in Brazil in July as well as the Gerry de Souza's contract startup in August.

Additionally, the Voyager commenced its 4-year contract with Shell in the U.S. Gulf in late September. Final commissioning and weather delays resulted in a few weeks later start than planned for this contract, but we are excited to now be underway with the Voyager. Next, in our major project start-up queue, we are looking forward to the Valiant and Discoverer scheduled commencements right around the end of this year on their long-term development campaign for Total and Suriname. Over the past 3 months, we have secured new contract awards totaling approximately $560 million. First, the Noble BlackRhino has been awarded a 4-well contract with TotalEnergies in Nigeria, expected to commence within the next few weeks. This program has an estimated duration of 150 days and includes options for up to 6 additional wells.

Next, I'm pleased to announce that the Noble Faye Kozack was awarded a 5-well contract with Tullow in Ghana scheduled to commence in mid-2027 with an estimated duration of approximately 250 days. Also, the sixth-generation drillship Noble Globetrotter I has been awarded a contract with TotalEnergies for light well intervention services under a 3-year capacity reservation agreement with the first scope of work scheduled to commence in Angola in Q3 or Q4 next year. However, prior to this, the rig is scheduled for a recently awarded 2-well exploration campaign with Occidental in Peru, commencing in Q2 2027, which leverages the Globetrotter's unique capability to transit through the Panama Canal in order to access this remote drilling location.

Continuing with Frontier exploration in South America, the Noble BlackHawk has been awarded a 1-well contract with Apache in Uruguay that's expected to commence in Q4 2027 with an estimated duration of 50 days and a contract value of approximately $25 million, plus additional fees for mobilization and demobilization. This contract value does not include MPD or any other additional services. As the BlackHawk is winding down its current work in the U.S. Gulf, we are continuing to pursue promising leads for additional work for the rig next year prior to the Uruguay move.

Switching over to Norway. The Noble Interceptor has been awarded a 1-well contract with DNO that's expected to commence in mid-2027 with an estimated duration of 50 to 90 days. Upon completion of this campaign, the rig is scheduled to commence its P&A program of ConocoPhillips at the Ekofisk field in the third quarter of 2027 with an estimated duration of 670 days. And finally, the Noble Intrepid was awarded a 1-well contract with ORLEN that is expected to commence in Q3 2027 with estimated duration of 40 to 60 days. With these awards, our current backlog stands at $6.7 billion.

Now zooming out for a moment to the broader market, recent trends across both the deepwater and harsh environment sectors are continuing to gain nice momentum. Deepwater contracting activity, which started out the year gangbusters, but then hit a quiet patch between May and July has recently reaccelerated over the past few months with a spate of recent pictures confirming day rate recovery for high-end drillships in the mid-400s up to $500,000 per day as current utilization, but to a greater extent, anticipated 2027 utilization continues to firm up. Today, 109 out of 110 marketed UDW rigs are contracted currently or in the future, putting contracted utilization at 99%. This eclipses the 2024 high watermark of 105 contracted rigs.

Meanwhile, current working utilization of 88 rigs is still 10 units shy of the 2024 peak. However, we've reached a point now where the number of pending contract start-ups for currently idle rigs modestly exceeds the number of contract rollovers over the next 6 months or so. This creates a fulcrum for the active rig count to potentially expand over the next few quarters as additional contracts are executed. So the deepwater market is firming up, consistent with what we've been anticipating for a while now. And this is despite the fact that we really haven't seen any real demand response so far this year resulting from higher commodity prices.

On the contrary, the U.S. Gulf, which has historically been one of the more demand elastic markets through commodity cycles, has been a noted soft spot amidst an otherwise robust global market throughout this year. Having now retreated from a low 20s rig count in recent years to a mid-teens market presently, we do expect to see some improvement in the Gulf next year based on current customer dialogue. However, the departure of a few drillships to other regions could likely create upward day rate pressure in order to drive capacity back into the Gulf, perhaps similar to recent dynamics in the harsh semi market, which in recent years have seen Norway rig count dip from the high teens down to the mid-teens and now back up to the high teens, with strengthening Norway day rates accompanying the migration of capacity back into that region.

And speaking of Norway, I would further add that the Norwegian jack-up market is also developing into a bright spot for Noble. With our recent contract awards, we now have 4 of our 5 CJ-70 jack-ups contracted in Norway for the first time, which is very promising improvement with leading-edge day rates ranging between $230,000 to $300,000, depending on work mode and contract duration. Currently, the Noble Innovator, the older unit among our 5 CJ-70s, remains uncontracted, but we're optimistic about contracting that rig fairly soon in the Southern North Sea where day rates are structurally lower. But nonetheless, this gives us a clear shot at approaching effectively full utilization for our jack-ups in 2027.

Now I'll pass the call over to Richard for the financial review.

Richard Barker

Thank you, Robert, and good morning or good afternoon all. In my prepared remarks today, I will briefly review the highlights of our third quarter and then discuss the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026. Starting with our quarterly results. Total revenue for the third quarter totaled $684 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $201 million and adjusted EBITDA margin was 28%. Q3 cash flow from operations was $144 million. Capital expenditures were $192 million and free cash flow was negative $48 million. On October 9, the sale of the Noble Resolve was finalized with the company receiving the remaining $45 million of proceeds. Further, the sale of the Noble Globetrotter II is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2026 for a purchase price of $38 million.

As summarized on Page 5 of the earnings presentation slides, our total backlog as of October 26 stands at $6.7 billion. As a reminder, our backlog excludes reimbursable revenue as well as revenue from ancillary services. Our current backlog includes approximately $2.6 billion that is scheduled for revenue conversion in 2027. Referring to Page 9 of the earnings presentation, we have narrowed our full year 2026 guidance for total revenue to between $2.85 billion and $2.9 billion compared with $2.8 billion and $2.9 billion previously and adjusted EBITDA to between $850 million and $900 million compared with $850 million and $925 million previously, as we expect Q4 to be slightly lower compared to Q3. Revenue was narrowed around the high end of the previous range, driven by higher reimbursable revenue than previously expected, while adjusted EBITDA was narrowed around the lower end, driven primarily by slightly later starts for the Voyager and the Valiant.

Additionally, capital expenditures guidance for this year has been increased to $680 million to $705 million compared with $615 million to $665 million previously, with the increase primarily attributable to higher customer reimbursable capital expenditures, which is now expected to total roughly $65 million for this year as compared to $25 million previously. If you exclude this $14 million increase in reimbursables, our capital expenditures guidance would have otherwise remained within the prior range.

Looking ahead, while we plan to provide formal guidance for 2027 on next quarter's earnings call, I would like to share the following directional indicators. In the first quarter of 2027, adjusted EBITDA is expected to be broadly similar to Q4 2026. We then expect adjusted EBITDA to build meaningfully higher each quarter as we progress through the year, supported by the buildup in our contract coverage with already approximately 20% more capacity under contract in the second half of the year compared to the first half. This is a noteworthy contrast with recent years in terms of the general slope of our contract coverage for the following year. And as Robert referenced, there were several opportunities we are actively chasing that start around the middle of the year that would build on top of this already existing contracted step-up.

With that, I'll now pass it back to Robert for concluding remarks.

Robert Eifler

Thanks, Richard. To wrap up, we're excited about both the direction of the market as well as Noble's positioning as we ramp into some pretty meaningful contract start-ups over the coming quarters. The gathering drumbeat of exploration and reserve replacement imperatives facing resource holders, combined with a forward oil price curve that has been melting higher through the end of the decade, have the potential to drive meaningfully tighter market conditions ahead. And specifically, based on the robust portfolio of contract opportunities in front of us today, it's not hard to draw a straight line to a fully sold-out market for high-end deepwater rigs within the next year or so.

Even under a more moderate demand scenario, however, we believe Noble is exceptionally well positioned to execute our playbook, generate durable free cash flow and deliver substantial returns of capital to shareholders through cycle. The backlog that we've secured since last year provides a clear line of sight to a significant cash flow inflection as we move through 2027 with, as Richard just highlighted, approximately 20% more contracted fleet capacity already secured in the second half of 2027 versus the first half of the year. And of course, we will have some opportunity to build on this.

This dynamic, in particular, is clearly supportive of an improving outlook, especially when contrasted against comparable measurements in recent years when the deepwater outlook has been burdened by significant white space problems. For example, 12 months ago, our H2 2026 days under contract were 5% shy of H1 2026 contracted days. And 24 months ago, when we were in the relatively early days of the emerging downdraft in the market, our contract coverage in the second half of 2025 was at that time actually 33% below H1 2025. So today's situation does indeed represent a very pronounced upturn in the shape of our backlog heading into 2027. And with that as a launch point, we're increasingly excited about the opportunity set in front of us.

Operator, we're ready to go to questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Arun Jayaram from JPMorgan.

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Arun Jayaram

Hey, Robert and team, I was wondering if you could comment a little bit on kind of changes you've seen in the overall market since last quarter and you gave your semiannual review of rig demand. We have noted that the contracted rig count has moved up by about 5 rigs. I think last quarter was about 104 and now you're at 109. So maybe just comment on what you're seeing that's evolved over the last, call it, 90 days and maybe add a little bit of regional color as well. Appreciate that.

Robert Eifler

Sure, Arun. Thanks for the question. Yes, we noted in the prepared remarks that we were in a bit of a doldrum over the summer months on fixtures. And you've referenced those that are known where we're up a handful of rigs on total demand rig count. What I would say is beyond that, we see now, I think, 2 to 3 opportunities in the U.S. Gulf that are somewhat closer to firm than we saw 90 days ago, which is obviously extremely helpful. And we see everything moving forward as planned through Kercom in West Africa. And then I would also note probably the other most notable change is we're feeling very good about demand emerging in India. So if you recall, there was some excitement there and then some tenders were postponed. And since that time, it appears obvious to us that, that I don't know, anywhere from 2, but probably something closer to 4 good drillships are going to be needed in India starting in late '27 and '28. I think those are probably the most bullish changes that we've seen in the last 90 days are U.S. and India.

Arun Jayaram

Great. And my follow-up, Robert, we're still in the early innings of kind of the OFS earnings season. But one of the themes that SLB highlighted on their call is just this renewed interest in exploration. And we did note in your updated fleet status report some opportunities in Peru and Uruguay. So I was wondering if you could just comment on general trends you're seeing in exploration over the next, call it, 12 to 18 months? And maybe part and parcel with that, are you seeing opportunities for chunkier development opportunities, which could have a little bit of a longer-term duration to those versus some of the exploration opportunities that tend to be a couple of wells here or there?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So I think if you just walk back through just a tiny history of exploration, I think it was around 3 years ago where we started seeing our customers start to talk a little bit more about reserve replacement. And then in the last 18 months or so, we started to see some real movement among our customers and increased narrative, specifically in exploration. There have been some, I guess, public commitments by our customers and statements around a return to exploration in various different regions. 2027 has been cited as a year where we would perhaps see an uptick in some of the, call it, wildcat exploration, which I think is where you really want to be looking right now. And so I would agree completely with what SLB said. What -- the only thing I would say is in terms of what has hit our business, you've seen the couple you referenced on our fleet status. It's not a needle mover, I don't think, for our business from where we sit today. We're very hopeful that as our customers exit budget season with really good cash flow during 2026 that we might actually see some more evidence of wildcat exploration in 2027.

And then you asked about development. This cycle has been -- I don't know if it's been reversed, but most of what's driven the demand heretofore has been development projects. So it's like a lot of things that have been delayed in years past are now starting up. That's what's driving, I think, the global uptick that we see in late and have referenced in late '27. And so -- and included in a lot of that, I think the exploration we've seen over the last couple of years has all been infield exploration. And so we watch that closely. That -- the percentage of our wells that's infield exploration has stayed relatively flat over the last few years. And so we're like you, really watching some more wildcat type exploration closely, and we're hopeful that, that starts to define the next phase in this uptick that we've been calling for here. But I think '27 is when we might get a little bit more clarity there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Fredrik Stene with Clarkson Securities.

Fredrik Stene

I would argue that you provided a relatively strong contracting update today with rates being supportive on most of these contracts, particularly happy to read and hear your commentary about the jack-ups, which have been lagging a bit with the leading-edge rates now being stronger. But I wanted to -- with rates being in a good place, I wanted to touch a bit on utilizations maybe in the near to medium term for certain specific rigs. You have some open capacity next year on the Stanley Lafosse, you have the Viking that has availability and obviously, the BlackHawk, which you've now in for a short-term contract towards the latter part of 2027. If we -- feel free to give specifics, but if you were to take like a portfolio view of maybe the drillships in particular that have open capacity, what kind of utilization should we expect on those in those areas which are now at least for now uncovered?

Robert Eifler

Yes, Fredrik, thanks. So all 3 of the -- well, all of the rigs are competing -- well, they're competing in slightly different markets. The Viking, I think it's very likely to stay in Southeast Asia. We have a number of opportunities for that rig that would close some of the gap before its long-term contract. So I think it could perhaps get up to in the 50% type range on utilization next year. But as the fleet status shows, we need to win some work there. And then I would lump the other rigs probably into more of a similar group. So we mentioned on the prepared remarks that we do have some work for the BlackHawk that we're hopeful comes through prior to its transfer transit down to Uruguay. And then there's a fair amount of work following that. And so we think between the Hawk and the BlackRhino that there are a lot of opportunities towards the end of '27 and '28, most of which are for long term -- for the long term. So we're pretty comfortable that we're going to fill in some white space on those rigs.

The Stanley Lafosse has work potential both in the U.S. and then outside the U.S. And I guess what I would say there is if it were to go outside the U.S., that's more likely to go back to work in late '27, early '28, that kind of time frame.

Fredrik Stene

All right. That's very helpful. And then as a follow-up, 3 or 2 questions, if I were to sound completely honest. The first one is with the rates being higher for ultra-deepwater market at the moment, what kind of delta should we expect for the Guyana rigs in terms of repricing and the mechanism that's at play there? I think it's being discussed it every September and March or something? And how will that play into your financials next year and '28 for that matter? And second, are you able to provide some guidance on how the agreement on the Globetrotter I work since it's more of a call-out arrangement with minimum utilization rather than a regular day-to-day contract?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So on the CEA, I guess I'd kind of say what we always say, which is it tracks market extremely well. We set the latest rate about a month ago that will start next year. And because we had one rate through all of '26 and then we have a rate that will start in late '27. We never disclosed the rates. What I would say is that it was set right around a month ago, maybe just a bit more and tracks the market very closely. And that will be a 6-month rate starting in January 1. And we've just adjusted the timing on that this year. So we had one rate for all of this year and then the next 6-month rate starts January 1. It's just easier for everybody. Over to the Globetrotter I, putting aside its exploration drilling well. The intervention project is 3 years long. It has a minimum of 150 days per year included in that. And then as most people listening probably know the intervention market is just a little bit different than the drilling market. It's planned on a much, much shorter cycle and it's more -- I'd call -- we call it call-out work, which compared to our drilling work, it is effectively call-out work.

And so the way I would think about that program is that it's roughly kind of breakeven at the minimum number of days per year. And then as call-out work fills in extra days, then we can earn some margin on top of that. We really like it. We think that rig is very well set up to kind of be that hybrid where it does intervention work, but can also head to run to some drilling wells where needed as we've seen and with a potential uptick in exploration and our belief for a long time that intervention is going to grow through time. We think this is a good contract for the rig, even if it's not going to be a real needle mover for us from a free cash flow generation perspective.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

I just wanted to follow up on the last line of question. So on the Globetrotter, as you kind of cycle between kind of working and not working, can you help us on the cost side of things? How should we think about cost well working and not working? And how you think about kind of managing those costs through the kind of on-off schedule?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So not working, we can get the costs well down, call it, to about 50% of what a Tier 1 drillship might cost. And while it's working, it's only slightly higher than that, call it, 60% of a working drillship in that range. That's an intervention mode. So when I mentioned the -- that sort of cash flow breakeven to moderately better than that, that's assuming that full intervention cost load all the way through. So that's, call it, 60% of the cost of a working Tier 1 rig.

Scott Gruber

Got you. And do you have much insight today in terms of the uptime extending beyond the 150 kind of days annual commitment?

Robert Eifler

We don't right now. I mean we're hopeful that we can -- I think I'm just going to throw out there. A great year, we think, would be to be able to double that number and keep it working kind of around 300 days. And then an average would probably be halfway between 150 and 300. So just over 200 -- low 200s per day -- I mean, per year, excuse me.

Scott Gruber

Yes. If I could just squeeze in one more, too. On the Guyanese rates, those are measured against market rates, not spot, correct? And is the measuring stick a global market rate or more region-wise to Latin America or the Americas in total?

Robert Eifler

It's a global market rate for a Tier 1 drillship.

Scott Gruber

Got you. For realized rate, not spot.

Robert Eifler

Yes. So what -- yes, it is. It's -- the way I would say it works in practice, which I love the way this is set up is because it's negotiated each round. And so because fixtures are all so bespoke and almost every fixture has some sort of special story to it, all of that does go into consideration. So that kind of all gets thrown out on the table and negotiated. It's not just a formulaic average of an Excel sheets print out. And frankly, that's why I think it tracks the market so well.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Beckmann with Pickering Energy Partners.

Keith Beckmann

I just wanted to ask around -- I want to dig into the Gulf a little bit more around some of the comments you had earlier. I mean, are you seeing some of the smaller independent drillers in the Gulf worry about a lack of rig supply into next year as we see potentially several longer-term programs in West Africa and Southeast Asia. And in that case, I mean, is that what potentially caused them to move some of these programs up from maybe what their expectations were before? Just any commentary around that.

Robert Eifler

What I would say is it is becoming increasingly obvious that supply could be an issue. I think, to our customers broadly, whether they're small or large. Whether someone has brought a program forward out of that, I wish I could say yes, but I'm not sure that we've actually seen that.

Keith Beckmann

Okay. And then my second question is just around, I mean, how are customers thinking about contract duration today? We've seen day rates continue to tick up here a little bit here over the last couple of months. Are they looking to lock stuff up for potentially prices rise further? Or are they potentially pushing stuff off right now, thinking hopefully, day rates come back down? Just maybe recent customer conversations around that.

Robert Eifler

Yes. I would say just tracking over the last 90 days that urgency has gone up, not down. But I would also say that we're far from a market where there's legitimate concern about not being able to drill a program because of supply. So whatever kind of middle ground that is, I think we're starting to hear more comments about how it's looking pretty tight going into 2028. The deepwater market is looking pretty tight. But we're still a ways away from the urgency we've seen in certain past cycles where you really -- where it's really driving duration decisions. I think duration decisions are still largely driven by need.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eddie Kim with Barclays.

Edward Kim

So you mentioned that the deepwater market is firming up despite no demand uplift so far this year from higher commodity prices. Could you elaborate on that for us? Is it your view that the recent contracting increase we've seen would have happened even without the increase in oil prices and that we should have seen more multiyear contracts announced by now given the elevated level of oil prices? And if that's the case, what do you think is the main reason that the customers are sort of holding back at this point?

Robert Eifler

Yes. It's -- Ed, you're breaking up a little bit, but -- so why are the higher commodity prices from this year not driving activity? We cast it as a positive because just because obviously, more cash flow for our customers is good for us. We really haven't seen very much increasing. We haven't seen -- I don't think we've seen any demand that's arisen from this. And I think it's because, a) discipline has ruled our customers for this entire cycle, up cycle, mid-cycle, wherever we are right now. And that's not going to change. And so there's additional cash flow right now, which is good. It's not translating into drilling just yet, which obviously we wish it had. I think we remain hopeful that in '27, we'll see some additional exploration work. We mentioned that earlier. And then I would say just the nature of all of the markets this year have been, I think, a little bit baffling for a lot of people. So I think there's an understanding that the oil -- current oil price could go right back down almost overnight given the geopolitical drivers and everything that's out there. And so people aren't really willing to make long-term decisions off of it right now.

We've pointed to the middle part of the Brent curve is probably the best indicator of our business for quite some time. And as we mentioned, it's bumped up a little bit, but it has been a lot less volatile than near-term pricing all the way through all of this. And so I think we've just seen our customers maintain a disciplined and steady posture towards deepwater drilling. It's positive. I think any of our customers would say that they have a belief that deepwater is going to gain market share here through time, but it's not being strongly affected by the events of this year.

Edward Kim

Got it. Understood. My follow-up is just on your commentary on leading edge day rates on recent contracts for Tier 1 drillships now in the mid-400s and close to $500,000 a day, which is evident from kind of the recent contracting we've seen. I mean it wasn't too long ago when we were in the low 400. So just curious if sort of the progression of day rates has increased faster than you would have expected at the beginning of the year or if the pace has been sort of in line with your expectations based on the demand outlook that you have seen.

Robert Eifler

Yes. So I think there's 2 things going on. The answer is no, it's not surprising. Back in '21 and '22, that kind of time frame, we saw rates move at least as fast, I would argue actually on a percentage basis, much faster. So it happened. So I think there's a couple of things going on. One, we are plus 5-ish units here recently. The marketed utilization is up to like 99%. So probably working utilization matters a little bit more for total pricing. So I think you'd see an even a much bigger move if working utilization -- if working utilization goes up to that 99% range, which, as we said in the comments, you can see a path to that for 2028 right now. But nonetheless, people can see out and see what we see, which is not only 99% market utilization, but a working rig count in late '27 that's roughly equal to where we are today, maybe slightly up from where we are today, which means every incremental contract that's signed for late '27 adds to the working rig count. And so people see what we see and the market is pricing accordingly. I think it makes sense.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff LeBlanc with TPH Research.

Jeffrey LeBlanc

I wanted to see on the jack-ups, is the expectation that the 4 jack-ups should remain in Norway moving forward? Or should we still expect some move between the 2 sides of the market?

Robert Eifler

Yes. I think we're finally, for the first time in years, hopeful that the 4 newest CJ-70s are going to stay in Norway.

Jeffrey LeBlanc

Okay. And then the secondary question is on the global -- Globetrotter, excuse me, is the expectation that, that drillship will remain in the global marketed fleet once the sale completes? Or will it be removed?

Robert Eifler

Into the GT2, no, it's coming out of the drilling fleet.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Noel Parks with Tuohy Brothers.

Noel Parks

It's really interesting to hear what you've seen as far as continued support for exploration out there in the marketplace. And I guess that makes me think a bit more about maybe pivoting back to talking about the development side. So of course, products are generally economic at far below the current prices we're seeing. But I'm just wondering, do you -- are you detecting any greater confidence among producers may be reflected in their budgeting for 2027 into 2028, where perhaps the industry is taking the Iran war supply disruptions considerably more seriously than certainly the markets have. So I just wonder if you sense a little bit more urgency on the development side.

Robert Eifler

Yes. I got to say we have -- from what we see, which granted is never at the very cutting edge of how our customers are thinking about how it gets down to like thinking about drilling rigs. But we have seen remarkably little change in the stance of our customers. And they continue -- by our observation, they continue to use very conservative breakeven oil price assumptions, and they continue to be extremely disciplined. I think -- we're thinking about the future as if that does not change. And I'm fond of saying that we're fans of efficiency because the deepwater is drilling itself into work as it gets more efficient. But we very much see the future of deepwater working because barrels are profitable at that kind of 60s and 70s range and really below that for breakeven, but that our customers are willing to drill and develop large projects at prices that fit nicely into the middle parts of the Brent curve. We haven't changed our stance on that at all in the outlook.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Lewis with BTIG.

Gregory Lewis

Robert, you provided a lot of color on the market. I was hoping to kind of get a big picture around like how we should be thinking about CapEx. I think one of the things, clearly, you guys are generating a lot of cash. I guess kind of a couple of questions around here. But like coming off of the down cycle, kind of like as you look at your fleet today, is it kind of where it needs to be for the next couple of years of the up cycle, i.e. I get we're upgrading the GreatWhite, the Claus rig and -- but like other rigs, right, as we think about where they are, could we be thinking about, hey, you know what, this rig needs this upgrade, this rig needs that upgrade? Or could we actually see kind of a move lower in CapEx as we look out over the next couple of years?

Robert Eifler

Yes. How about -- let me explain a little bit around the types of upgrades we made, and then I'll hand it to Richard and he can give you a little kind of, I guess, history of our CapEx and how it fit into the cycle. So everything we've done -- the Bachmann, we fundamentally changed the marketability of that rig by making it Norway compliant. So I think that's baked in now that rig is worth substantially more because of its increased earnings power because of the upgrades that we're performing on that rig right now. So it's been -- the rig is capable of working in Norway will go to Norway, and it's a great place for the rig. We're very, very proud to be supported by our customer in moving that rig into that region. Everything else falls into kind of a different bucket, which would be a range of, obviously, maintenance CapEx over to some more specific upgrades. But I'm extremely pleased with where we're going to sit by the end of 2027 on all of our Tier 1 drillships. Every single one of those will have MPD. We will have 2 million, 2.8 million pound Derricks that are highly competitive in the U.S. Gulf.

We've added grown non compensators where needed. And already a majority of our fleet has larger thrusters that allow them to work effectively anywhere around the globe. There's are a lot of drillships out there that actually can't work in some of the emerging markets. So -- it's obviously coming at a cost right now in '26 and in early '27. But we are so well set up with the quality of our fleet going into late '27 and '28. These are life of asset upgrades. And I actually think the timing is darn close to perfect for us on having made these investments.

Richard Barker

And Greg, just to add to that, obviously, we're spending a lot of capital on the fleet right now. That will continue, if you will, to kind of mid next year. But obviously, the earnings power that this kind of increases or the increase in earnings power around that fleet is significant. So once you get to kind of second half of next year, kind of the EBITDA and free cash flow run rate is pretty significant. Maybe just to put kind of normalized CapEx into focus here. What we said at the beginning of the year was that net CapEx would be in the high 300s to kind of $400 million range on a normalized basis. This would exclude the Claus Bachmann. We are seeing some inflationary pressure. So I think you should think about normalized CapEx for us in the high end of that range, so within that kind of $400 million kind of area type context. Obviously, that excludes the Claus Bachmann. And as you think about 2027, we probably have just over half of the Claus Bachmann CapEx to spend in 2027. So from a kind of a net CapEx perspective, I think hopefully that gives you some guidance here for kind of '27 and beyond.

Gregory Lewis

Yes. And just so as we think about that rig, that rig is starting up in March. So when it leaves for that maiden voyage, that it's good to go. It's not going to go back in, right?

Richard Barker

Correct. That is right. Yes.

Gregory Lewis

Okay. And then I did have one other question. Just -- Robert, this is for you. Just it's been interesting I mean, clearly, we've always seen rig pocket contract, right? Obviously, you guys have the 4 rigs with Exxon and Guyana. You were able to get those 2 Shell rigs. This development work, we've been talking a lot about development drilling. But I guess my question is, at this point, as we look out over the next couple of years and our understanding is there is still a couple of opportunities for multi-rigs going with one customer in one region for development drilling. Are we at a point now with the fleet where we need to start maybe being a little more selective in some of the work we're doing simply because we want to be in the right place at the right time to potentially win some of these multi-rig tenders?

Robert Eifler

Yes. So there are multiple multi rig development programs out there. And I think that's one of the things that makes us so excited going into exiting '27 because those we think now we have some clearer sight that those are going to come through. I think we've always been selective. We have really embraced efficiency and technology, as I mentioned, around the CapEx upgrades. And those really pay for themselves in development projects way more than anywhere else. And so we've targeted and really wanted to be in some of these bigger development projects. I think we've done a good job with had a fair amount of success there. That won't necessarily change for us, and there are some additional projects out there that are on the table for us and nothing is done yet. But obviously, pricing has moved and we'll continue to move with whatever the market dictates. But nothing's really changed about where we see our strengths as a company.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn it back to Ian MacPherson for closing remarks.

Ian MacPherson

Thank you, everyone, for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in Noble, and we will look forward to speaking with you next quarter. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.