Cuộc họp công bố kết quả kinh doanh quý 3/2026 của Kforce (KFRC): Tăng trưởng mảng công nghệ tăng tốc, đưa ra dự báo quý 4

Điểm tin chính

• Kforce báo cáo doanh thu quý 3/2026 đạt 357,8 triệu USD, tăng 7,5% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và vượt mức trần trong khoảng dự báo của ban lãnh đạo.
• Doanh thu mảng công nghệ tăng 7,8% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và tăng 2,5% so với quý trước tính theo số ngày tính phí, nhờ nhu cầu mở rộng trên các lĩnh vực AI, dữ liệu, kỹ thuật số, điện toán đám mây và kỹ thuật nền tảng.
• Lợi nhuận trên mỗi cổ phiếu (EPS) pha loãng đạt 0,90 USD, bao gồm 0,12 USD khoản lãi từ các hợp đồng bảo hiểm nhân thọ do công ty sở hữu. Nếu không tính khoản lãi này, EPS tăng khoảng 24% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái.
• Biên lợi nhuận gộp tăng 50 điểm cơ bản so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái lên 28,2%, trong khi biên lợi nhuận gộp mảng công nghệ Flex tăng 60 điểm cơ bản nhờ chênh lệch giá thanh toán-chi trả tốt hơn, kỷ luật định giá và cơ cấu kinh doanh giá trị cao hơn đã bù đắp cho chi phí chăm sóc sức khỏe.
• Đối với quý 4/2026, ban lãnh đạo dự báo doanh thu đạt từ 352 triệu USD đến 360 triệu USD và EPS đạt từ 0,62 USD đến 0,70 USD. Tại điểm giữa của khoảng dự báo, doanh thu sẽ tăng 7,2% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái và tăng 2,7% so với quý trước tính theo số ngày tính phí.
• Ban lãnh đạo vẫn tự tin rằng Kforce có thể đạt biên lợi nhuận hoạt động ít nhất 8% khi doanh thu hàng năm quay trở lại mức 1,7 tỷ USD, nhờ những cải thiện về cơ cấu kinh doanh, quy mô và đòn bẩy hoạt động.

Dữ liệu tài chính cốt lõi

Kết quả kinh doanh và hoạt động

Mảng công nghệ tiếp tục là động lực tăng trưởng chính. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết xu hướng mua hàng đã cải thiện trong bốn quý qua, với doanh thu từ cả dịch vụ tư vấn và bổ sung nhân sự truyền thống đều tăng trưởng. Mảng Giải pháp Tư vấn (Consulting Solutions) đã mở rộng với tốc độ hàng năm trên 10% trong vài năm qua.

Nhu cầu diễn ra diện rộng trên nhiều ngành nghề và kỹ năng. Kforce nhấn mạnh sự tăng trưởng đặc biệt mạnh mẽ trong các ngành dịch vụ tài chính, bán buôn, cũng như dịch vụ chuyên môn và doanh nghiệp. Hoạt động tiếp tục tăng trưởng ở các dự án dữ liệu, kỹ thuật số và đám mây liên quan đến AI, trong khi nhu cầu đối với các vị trí và dự án kỹ thuật nền tảng cũng gia tăng.

Mảng Giải pháp Tư vấn đạt giá trị trao hợp đồng mới kỷ lục trong quý và đạt tỷ lệ chuyển đổi cơ hội kinh doanh cao nhất từ trước đến nay. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết các cơ hội kinh doanh liên quan đến AI đã tăng khoảng 20% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Mô hình cung ứng dịch vụ của công ty kết hợp nhân sự trong nước (onshore), lân cận (nearshore) và nước ngoài (offshore), bao gồm trung tâm cung ứng tại Pune.

Hoạt động kinh doanh đã lấy lại đà tăng trưởng sau tháng 7 chậm hơn do yếu tố mùa vụ. Hoạt động tìm kiếm khách hàng ban đầu và tỷ lệ chuyển đổi đã cải thiện trong tháng 8 và duy trì mạnh mẽ trong tháng 9 và tháng 10. Ban lãnh đạo cũng dẫn chứng số lượng nghỉ việc tăng, nhiều lời đề nghị giữ chân và nhiều lời mời nhận việc hơn như là những dấu hiệu cho thấy thị trường lao động công nghệ đang hoạt động lành mạnh hơn. Tỷ lệ chuyển đổi khách hàng đã tăng khoảng 23% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái trong quý 3, sau mức tăng hơn 30% một chút trong quý trước.

Kforce đã bổ sung có chọn lọc nhân sự bán hàng, tuyển dụng và tư vấn tại các thị trường nơi nhu cầu vượt quá công suất. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết đây là những bổ sung có mục tiêu thay vì một đợt tuyển dụng ồ ạt trên diện rộng. Công ty kỳ vọng các công cụ nội bộ tích hợp AI và công suất hiện tại sẽ hỗ trợ nâng cao hơn nữa năng suất và đòn bẩy hoạt động.

Dự báo của ban lãnh đạo

Kforce dự kiến doanh thu quý 4/2026 đạt từ 352 triệu USD đến 360 triệu USD và EPS pha loãng đạt từ 0,62 USD đến 0,70 USD. Quý này có 62 ngày tính phí, không thay đổi so với quý 4/2025 nhưng ít hơn 2 ngày so với quý 3/2026.

Tại điểm giữa của khoảng dự báo, ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng doanh thu sẽ tăng 2,7% so với quý trước tính theo số ngày tính phí và tăng 7,2% so với cùng kỳ năm ngoái. Doanh thu mảng công nghệ dự kiến sẽ tăng khoảng 3% so với quý trước tính theo ngày tính phí tại điểm giữa.

Triển vọng này dựa trên giả định môi trường hoạt động ổn định, thuế suất thực tế khoảng 28,7% và không có các khoản mục bất thường hoặc không thường xuyên. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng chênh lệch giá thanh toán-chi trả sẽ về cơ bản ổn định so với quý trước, một phần bị triệt tiêu bởi tác động mùa vụ thông thường từ việc nghỉ phép có lương tăng cao trong các kỳ nghỉ lễ.

Nhìn xa hơn năm 2026, ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng Mảng Giải pháp Tư vấn và cung ứng nước ngoài sẽ tạo ra thêm các cơ hội về biên lợi nhuận gộp. Chi phí SG&A dự kiến sẽ tăng chậm hơn doanh thu trong năm 2027 nếu các xu hướng hiện tại tiếp tục diễn ra. Các lợi ích liên quan đến việc triển khai Workday dự kiến sẽ bắt đầu xuất hiện vào cuối năm 2027 và phát huy đầy đủ hơn trong suốt năm 2028, mặc dù việc ra mắt vào đầu năm 2027 ban đầu sẽ làm tăng chi phí khấu hao và phân bổ phi tiền mặt.

Rủi ro và các yếu tố cần theo dõi

• Ban lãnh đạo mô tả môi trường lao động là đan xen. Tỷ lệ thất nghiệp trong ngành công nghệ vẫn ở mức tương đối thấp, khoảng 2,9%, nhưng dữ liệu lao động gần đây cho thấy sự sụt giảm nhẹ về việc làm trong các ngành thông tin và dịch vụ chuyên môn.
• Khách hàng vẫn thận trọng trong chi tiêu cho công nghệ, trong khi căng thẳng địa chính trị, lãi suất tăng và sự biến động trên thị trường năng lượng toàn cầu tiếp tục tạo ra những yếu tố không chắc chắn.
• Chi phí chăm sóc sức khỏe có thể khó dự báo theo từng quý và đã cao hơn một chút trong quý 3.
• Thời điểm diễn ra các kỳ nghỉ lễ tạo ra sự không chắc chắn xung quanh hoạt động trong tháng 12, số ngày nghỉ phép có lương và dòng tiền quý 4. Các khoản chi trả thù lao dựa trên hiệu suất hàng năm cũng diễn ra trong quý 4.
• Dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đã bị ảnh hưởng bởi việc thanh toán chậm trễ tạm thời của một khách hàng lớn, mặc dù ban lãnh đạo cho biết khoản thanh toán đã nhận được vào đầu tháng 10 và danh mục khoản phải thu vẫn duy trì ở mức mạnh mẽ.
• AI có thể tự động hóa một lượng đáng kể hoạt động lập trình. Tuy nhiên, ban lãnh đạo tin rằng nhu cầu sẽ chuyển dịch sang các chuyên gia cao cấp và những nhân sự chuyên nghiệp có khả năng tích hợp AI vào các quy trình kinh doanh, thay vì cắt giảm diện rộng nhu cầu đối với nhân sự công nghệ linh hoạt.

Tóm tắt phần Hỏi & Đáp với chuyên viên phân tích

Phục hồi nhu cầu và thị phần: Ban lãnh đạo cho rằng sự tăng trưởng đến từ cả nhu cầu thị trường đang cải thiện và năng lực thực thi riêng của công ty. Các chương trình công nghệ bị trì hoãn đang được khởi động lại, đầu tư liên quan đến AI đang tăng lên, và Kforce tin rằng mức tăng trưởng vượt kỳ vọng thị trường chung cho thấy công ty đang giành thêm cả thị phần lẫn phần chia khách hàng.

Mở rộng biên lợi nhuận: Các hợp đồng tư vấn thường có biên lợi nhuận cao hơn từ 400 đến 600 điểm cơ bản so với các hợp đồng bổ sung nhân sự. Ban lãnh đạo kỳ vọng sự dịch chuyển liên tục sang mảng Giải pháp Tư vấn, cung ứng lân cận và nước ngoài, kết hợp với kỷ luật định giá, sẽ hỗ trợ cải thiện biên lợi nhuận hơn nữa theo thời gian.

Lộ trình đạt biên lợi nhuận hoạt động 8%: Công ty kỳ vọng việc mở rộng biên lợi nhuận gộp sẽ diễn ra tương đối ổn định khi cơ cấu kinh doanh được cải thiện. Đòn bẩy SG&A sẽ đến từ quy mô doanh thu, năng suất cao hơn và khả năng hấp thụ chi phí cố định, trong khi các lợi ích từ Workday dự kiến sẽ tạo ra sự cải thiện rõ nét hơn bắt đầu từ cuối năm 2027 và kéo dài sang năm 2028.

Chuyển đổi doanh thu tư vấn: Mức trao hợp đồng kỷ lục dự kiến sẽ chuyển đổi thành doanh thu trong các quý tiếp theo. Ban lãnh đạo cho biết một số dự án bắt đầu đi vào triển khai đã mất từ một đến hai quý đánh giá, qua đó hỗ trợ duy trì đà tăng trưởng sang năm 2027.

Dòng tiền: Kforce kỳ vọng dòng tiền từ hoạt động kinh doanh đạt mức dương trong quý 4. Tuy nhiên, ban lãnh đạo cảnh báo rằng theo lịch sử, quý 4 là thời điểm tạo ra dòng tiền thấp hơn do các khoản chi trả thưởng hàng năm và các yếu tố mùa vụ khác.

Toàn văn Biên bản Cuộc họp Báo cáo Kết quả Kinh doanh

Toàn văn cuộc gọi công bố kết quả kinh doanh

Phần trình bày của ban lãnh đạo

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Kforce Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I will now hand the conference over to Joe Liberatore, President and CEO. Please go ahead, sir.

Joseph Liberatore

Good afternoon, and thank you for your time today.

This call contains certain statements that are forward-looking are based upon current assumptions and expectations that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may vary materially from the factors listed in Kforce's public filings and other reports and filings with the SEC. We cannot undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. You can find additional information about our results in our earnings release and our SEC filings. In addition, we have published our prepared remarks within the Investor Relations portion of our website.

We are extremely pleased to deliver a quarter of accelerating revenue and earnings growth. Revenues, which exceeded the high end of our guidance reflect the continued build of momentum that began in the second half of 2025 as evidenced by another quarter of sequential growth and further accentuated with year-over-year growth rate in our technology business of nearly 8% that is roughly equivalent to our pre-pandemic compounded annual growth rate.

As Jeff Hackman will cover in more detail, this momentum has continued into the fourth quarter, where we're expected to deliver another quarter of strong sequential billing day growth.

During the challenging years of 2023 to 2025, we didn't hang our heads. We spent considerable time selectively and responsibly investing in our people, strengthening our service offerings and evolving our brand and go-to-market strategy, supported by our integrated strategy efforts and fine-tuning our world-class client portfolio.

We also weren't unerved when the dramatic evolution of technology that occurred with AI in the fall of 2022 because across Kforce 64-year history, we have navigated and helped our clients navigate several defining periods of technological change from mainframe and personal computing and the Internet to mobile technology and cloud computing. We witnessed that each transition reshaped the labor market, yet it also created new opportunities as workers, particularly technology professionals, develop new skills and adapted to the evolving demands.

Over time, these cycles ultimately expanded the number and breadth of technology-related roles. In fact, there is some recent evidence supporting our historical experience with technological changes playing out with AI.

Recent research and labor market data continues to reinforce the durability of technology talent demand even as AI automates a significant amount of coding activity. Indeed, data showed U.S. software development jobs postings have increased nearly 15% since February 2025, with that growth significantly concentrated in senior roles, which aligns well with where we have historically focused.

Longer term, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment for software developers and related roles to grow approximately 10% through 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations.

Our approach to AI remains deliberate and balanced, both within Kforce and how we support our clients. Internally, we are examining our core processes and introducing AI-enabled capabilities where they can meaningfully improve the quality and speed of the associate and client experience, resulting in improved productivity and operating leverage.

Externally, we are continuing to build fluency across our sales team and leadership while expanding the specialized AI expertise within our consulting solutions organization. We believe that enterprise adoption of AI is still at the early stage and will likely develop over time, much like other major technology transitions.

The greatest opportunity will extend beyond the technology itself to the thoughtful and secure integration of AI into business processes and operating models. Capturing that value will require organizations to bring together strategy, talent, data, governance and change management to produce measurable outcomes.

We, therefore, expect growing demand for highly skilled professionals and teams capable of designing, implementing and scaling AI, data and broader digital transformation initiatives. We believe clients will progressively turn to outside expertise to redesign business to be AI native.

A recent example of a major U.S. financial institution bringing in 1,000 technology consultants to help align their internal systems with recently acquired AI tools is indicative of how outside expertise can be leveraged.

With our technology talent solutions and consulting capabilities, Kforce is well positioned to help clients modernize their operations, translate technology investments into business value and build competitive advantage. No matter the pace of innovation, organizations will continue to need experienced professionals who can connect emerging technologies with practical execution. We believe that need supports the long-term demand for technology talent and consulting solutions that is at the center of our strategy.

The demand for flexible technology talent is broadly based and extends beyond AI. The labor environment remains a bit mixed with IT unemployment rates remaining relatively low at approximately 2.9%, indicative of a tight market for technology talent.

At the same time, recent [ BLS ] data indicates modest job declines in the information and professional services sector. This is an environment where many companies remain hesitant to add full-time staff, while the project-based nature of technology work may further incentivize clients to leverage flexible talent solutions.

Organizations are also increasingly turning to flexible talent models to advance large backlogs of high-priority technology initiatives. Broader uncertainty, including geopolitical tensions, rising interest rates and related volatility in the global energy markets has further reinforced the need for agility. We believe these dynamics highlight the value of flexible workforce solutions as clients adapt to near-term uncertainty while assessing the longer-term implications of emerging technologies on their business and talent strategies.

As a result, we remain encouraged that our operating trends and revenue improvements since late 2025, are consistent with a more typical cyclical demand recovery.

Our business model is intentionally simple, organically driven and intensely focused. By limiting inorganic growth within our existing service areas, we protect our teams from unnecessary complexities and distractions. That focus allows our people to do what they do best, build deep relationships and partner with clients to solve their most critical business challenges. Our strategy has been thoughtfully refined over time not overhauled because it is proven durable. That focus, combined with a unified and resilient culture is a real differentiator for us and central to our consistent market outperformance.

I am incredibly proud of the determination of our people and deeply appreciative of the trust our world-class clients continue to place in Kforce. The way our teams collaborate, serve our clients, and move our strategic priorities forward is creating meaningful momentum across Kforce and clear evidence to me that our people are operating more fully as One Kforce.

With that, I will turn the call over to Dave Kelly, our Chief Operating Officer, for additional perspective on our performance and operating trends. Jeff Hackman, our Chief Financial Officer, will then review our financial results and outlook in greater detail. Dave?

David Kelly

Thank you, Joe. Total revenues exceeded guidance on the strength of our technology revenue growth of 7.8% year-over-year and 2.5% on a sequential billing day basis. While there's been a considerable debate about whether AI tools and technologies will constrain demand across our sector, over the last 4 quarters, we're seeing buying patterns improve and have delivered revenue growth that is at or above pre-pandemic norms.

Both consulting and traditional staff augmentation revenues are growing, and our Consulting Solutions business has been growing in excess of 10% annually for the last few years. Our client portfolio is exceptional. Our go-to-market and integrated strategy efforts are gaining traction, and our culture is unmatched. Clients remain measured in their technology spending through our recent acceleration in revenue growth and leading indicators suggest that more projects are being greenlighted and demand for our services is increasing.

Our results and operating trends indicate that clients are prioritizing critical initiatives in digital and the platforms that support AI strategies and other critical projects that may have been deferred. Our growth rights provide concrete evidence that we are gaining share with our clients and across the broader market.

Importantly, the improvement in our business has been broad-based with positive trends evident across a wide range of industries and skill sets within our client portfolio. We continue to see growth in AI-related data, digital and cloud projects while also experiencing a ramp in demand for platform engineering roles and projects. It seems increasingly clear that the demand for flexible talent with high-end skill sets and technology is strengthening despite overall technology job growth being tepid, which further validates our focus on delivering high-end solutions to clients.

Overall technology demand by industry remains broad, but with particular strength in financial services, wholesale trade and in professional and business services. As part of delivering innovative solutions to our clients, we continue to make targeted organic investments to deepen our consulting expertise, assist our clients in translating business problems within AI use cases and more rapidly developing potential technology solutions. These investments include an increase in our innovation capabilities and increasing the depth and size of our team of domestically based technology experts and ensuring they are engaging in tandem with our talented sales associates to assist with early-stage client exploration and use case advancement.

During the third quarter, our Consulting Solutions business achieved record levels of new contract award value and converted the highest percentage of pipeline opportunities in its history. Our fully integrated sales and delivery model combines onshore, nearshore and offshore talent from our [ Pune ] delivery center to give clients a unified experience across consulting, project-based work and traditional staffing needs spanning a broad range of technologies and skill sets.

Demand is strengthening across our service portfolio with clients increasingly open to discussing new opportunities. After a relatively slower start to the quarter in July, which is fairly typical during the summer, we saw front-end activity levels and conversion ratios meaningfully improved in August, and we've seen continued strength in September and October. These elevated activity levels and improving conversion ratios are translating into increasing project wins and accelerating revenue growth.

Assigned and attrition also performed better than expected in the third quarter, which speaks to the overall health and sustainability of the operating environment. We continue to outperform broader industry trends and momentum in the business has clearly strengthened as reflected in our Q4 guidance.

We've maintained a stable to slightly improving average bill rate in technology over the past 4 years, which is encouraging and reflective of our higher quality, higher margin revenue stream. Our average bill rate in Q3 was $91 per hour. This reflects the growing mix of consulting-oriented engagements which command higher bill rates and stronger margin profiles as well as disciplined management of wage inflation and core technology skill sets.

Together, these factors have effectively offset the bill rate pressure associated with a greater mix of consultants based outside the U.S. We expect to continue seeing a stable to slightly improving average bill rate as technology labor continues to upskill in the face of advancements in AI.

Demand remains strong across our core practice areas, including data and AI, digital platform engineering and cloud. The number of opportunities in our consulting solutions offering continues to expand and will be a key driver for our sequential growth in Q4. These disciplines are foundational to the development deployment of AI solutions and we believe organizations will increasingly require specialized talent to execute their strategies.

Looking forward to Q4, we expect overall revenues to improve sequentially in the low single digits on a billing day basis, and for year-over-year growth to be stable with third quarter levels even against the more difficult prior year comp. Over the last several years, we made responsible adjustments to aligned head count with revenue levels and productivity expectations. We selectively added head count in the third quarter given our exceptional operating trends. We expect the productivity improvements that we are driving, particularly the greater efficiencies expected from AI-enabled solutions to generate additional leverage as we grow.

At the same time, we've continued to invest in our Consulting Solutions business and other strategic initiatives that we believe will support long-term revenue and profitability growth.

We remain energized by the opportunities ahead and confident in our ability to sustain recent momentum while continuing to deliver strong results that exceed overall market averages. Our success is grounded in the deep trust and long-standing partnerships we've built with our clients, candidates and consultants. These relationships remain the foundation of our growth, innovation and long-term success.

I'll now turn the call over to Jeff Hackman, Kforce's Chief Financial Officer.

Jeffrey Hackman

Thank you, Dave. Third quarter revenues of $357.8 million increased 7.5% year-over-year and exceeded our expectations. Earnings per share of $0.90 benefited in the third quarter by the recognition of a $0.12 gain under our corporate owned life insurance policies. Excluding this gain, earnings per share would have been near the high end of guidance for the third quarter improving approximately 24% over the year ago period.

All aspects of the business continued to improve in the third quarter, driving very strong results from top to bottom. Our overall gross profit margin was at the midpoint of our expectations, increasing 50 basis points year-over-year to 28.2%. The stronger gross margin profile reflects not only strong demand but also a continuation of highly disciplined pricing by our people and further improvements in the quality of our revenue streams from a business mix standpoint that we are strategically driving.

As revenue growth has accelerated over the last 12 months, we have also increased our gross profit margins, which is not a trend that has been universally delivered across our sector. We are really proud of how our firm has executed and that our clients are recognizing the value that Kforce provides across both our technology talent and solutions offerings.

Sequentially, gross profit margins decreased as expected by 30 basis points, driven by a lower mix of Direct Hire revenues and slightly higher health care costs.

Flex gross profit margins improved 60 basis points year-over-year and was in line with the midpoint of our expectations. As stronger-than-anticipated bill pay spreads offset slightly higher health care costs.

Health care costs have generally come in as planned year-to-date, but can be difficult to project by quarter. As we look beyond 2026, we expect our higher-margin solutions engagements and offshore delivery to continue supporting further margin expansion opportunities. As to the fourth quarter, we expect bill pay spreads to remain broadly stable sequentially and for us to experience typical seasonal impacts from higher paid time off around the holidays.

SG&A as a percentage of revenue was 21.6% and benefited by 60 basis points because of the aforementioned gain under our corporate owned life insurance policies. Adjusting for this gain, SG&A costs were at the low end of our guidance of 22.2% to 22.4%, demonstrating an ability to continue delivering operating leverage as revenues expand.

As Dave mentioned, we made selective investments in our sales and recruiting teams to support the accelerating growth and added further depth to our consulting teams. We are largely absorbing the near-term cost implications of these investments through the leverage that our revenue growth is providing.

As previously discussed, the Workday implementation is expected to result in higher noncash depreciation and amortization expense following the early 2027 go-live. We continue to expect the more significant benefits to emerge in late 2027 and build more fully throughout 2028, enhancing operational efficiency and supporting long-term margin expansion.

Our operating margin was 6.3%, which benefited by 60 basis points due to the gain and our effective tax rate in the third quarter was 28.6%, lower than anticipated because of the tax-free nature of this gain. After factoring in this game, our operating margin and effective tax rate met the high end of our expectations.

Operating cash flow was $9.5 million in the third quarter. below our expectations due to a temporary payment delay at a large client that was resolved in early October. The overall quality of our accounts receivable portfolio remains very strong. During the quarter, we returned approximately $6.7 million to shareholders through dividends. We did not repurchase shares, which reflects our near-term priority of maintaining current debt levels.

We have repurchased approximately 15 million shares at an average price below $30 per share thus far in 2026. And returned another $20.2 million in dividends. an aggregate amount that has exceeded operating cash flows.

Net debt was effectively unchanged quarter-to-quarter. Our balance sheet remains strong with leverage of approximately 1.3x trailing 12-month EBITDA and providing continued financial flexibility.

Looking ahead, we will remain disciplined in deploying excess cash after funding our capital needs and quarterly dividend, balancing debt reduction with opportunistic share repurchases. Our return on equity remains strong at approximately 30%, reflecting disciplined capital allocation and our ability to generate attractive returns while investing to support long-term growth.

Turning to our outlook. The fourth quarter includes 62 billing days, consistent with the fourth quarter of 2025, but two fewer billing days than the third quarter of 2026. We expect fourth quarter revenue to be in the range of $352 million to $360 million and earnings per share to be between $0.62 and $0.70.

Our guidance assumes an effective tax rate of approximately 28.7%. At the midpoint of guidance, revenue is expected to increase 2.7% sequentially and 7.2% year-over-year. Our outlook assumes a stable operating environment and does not reflect any unusual or nonrecurring items.

We remain confident in our competitive position and our ability to grow faster than the market, continued progress in business mix, margin expansion and operating leverage strengthens our earnings potential as demand improves. We remain confident in our ability to achieve an operating margin of at least 8% and as annual revenue returns to $1.7 billion, representing more than 100 basis points of improvement from the margin achieved when we last operated at that revenue level in 2022.

Operating margins that we have delivered thus far in 2026 are significantly greater than the operating margins reached previously at similar revenue levels, which reflects disciplined execution, a stronger business mix, effective pricing and continued investment in our sales, solutions and enterprise capabilities.

On behalf of the management team, I want to thank our associates for their continued dedication and commitment to our clients. Their contributions remain central to our performance and our confidence in the opportunities ahead. We would now like to turn the call over for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mark Marcon with Baird. Please go ahead.

Phần hỏi đáp

Mark Marcon

Good afternoon, great results. Wondering if you can talk a little bit about -- you're seeing demand pick up. There's a lot of companies that are coming off the sidelines and implementing on programs that were deferred. To what extent do you think your results are a function of just the broad increase in demand relative to picking up share? And specifically what you've been doing both offshore as well as with some of your specialized higher-margin solutions?

David Kelly

I appreciate the question, Mark. This is Dave. So I would say a few things, and we alluded to these, I think, in some of our remarks that we've been sitting here for the last 3 or 4 quarters now indicating that we've seen a pickup of indicators. We've seen improving client conversations.

Obviously, there's been a lot of discussion in the marketplace about AI and AI-related investments, I would say. Certainly, that is a part of it. Our consulting services team has had a really nice period of growth. We've seen significant improvement in pipelines there. I think our AI and related pipelines are up something like 20% year-over-year. So certainly, that is part of the story. And our expectation is that it's going to continue to be the case as we move forward here, frankly, isn't anything in the marketplace that we're seeing that suggests that it's going to slow down.

I would say in addition to that, we've been talking for quite some time about a lot of deferrals that companies have had in terms of the other technology initiatives that they've wanted to do, right? They've always been trying to prioritize mission-critical things and they've really gotten to a point in many respects that have said, we really got to do this. We can't wait for things to turn around. We've got at least some visibility that things are going to continue to improve for our business, and we've got to make these investments. Certainly, still some uncertainty in the marketplace, but they're spending there as well.

Their expectations, obviously, and it's reflective of some of the changes that we've made in our model. It's to make sure that they're effective in meeting those needs in a very cost-effective manner. So certainly, our offshore facility is helping facilitate that.

We've talked in the past, especially about the idea of blended projects in our consulting services area. So we're seeing it pretty broadly across different types of business, not just AI, but general technology spend. We're seeing it broadly across many industries. So I wouldn't suggest to you that there is any particular industry driver as well. I think, in fact, 8 of our 10 industry sectors have been stable or growing year-over-year. So I think Joe used the word broad-based or I did. I can't remember, maybe both of us did. It clearly is has been and we expect will continue to be the case as it relates to demand.

Joseph Liberatore

Yes, Mark, the last part to your question that Dave didn't touch upon was overall market share. Yes, I have to complement our teams. Our teams have really been executing. We really -- we did a lot of training over the last several years. We've put a lot of new programs in place over the last several years. And I couldn't -- we couldn't be more proud of our team, the leadership and just how people are executing.

So based upon the data that we're seeing relative to the space, if you were to look at performance this quarter and our guide, it would appear that, that is that that's above what our market is projected. So obviously, that would lead one to the conclusion that we are capturing market share. We also do know that we're capturing client share.

David Kelly

Mark, there is one other way I think we need to slice this business as well. we've talked about as a core staff augmentation is an important part of our business as is solutions work, right? Our objective has always been to meet client needs from a talent perspective in any way they want to buy.

And so that strength that we're seeing is across that spectrum as well from staff augmentation all the way through our solution space. So broaden that sense as well.

Mark Marcon

Great. That actually led to one of my other questions, which is can you give us a sense for your gross margins on a year-over-year basis, on Tech Flex has been improving, despite the higher medical care costs and various elements along those lines.

But what are you seeing with regards to the mix of your business that's now offshore and solutions relative to domestic staff on. How much is that increase? Can you give us a sense for how big that is? And can we see the gross margins continuing to increase as we look out a little bit further into next year and the following year if this mix shift continues.

David Kelly

Yes, Mark, this is Dave again. So it's still certainly a small part of our footprint. We opened up that facility in [ Pune ] gosh, a year, 1.5 years ago now. We've had some nice growth. Our focus has been obviously in supporting our consulting solutions business. And so we've been very diligent about doing that. We've touched on that. So it is still a small percentage of the business.

Frankly, I think it will grow, but we're seeing improving bill rates in our consulting services, which, as we've said in the past, we typically carry margins 400 to 600 basis points higher than a staff organization assignment. So you're getting that offset.

The other thing I would say is margin improvements also, I think, are a good reflection of scarcity account and demand for high skilled labor, right? We've got a very concentrated revenue footprint in the high skill area, and we've been very diligent about maintaining that because we think that, that is an area where clients are willing to pay for value and scarcity of talent.

Jeffrey Hackman

And I think, Mark, this is Jeff. I think you're hitting on a key point to our story as well. I mean it's pretty neat when you see the revenue trajectory meaningfully inflecting us starting to throw off growth. It's comparable to our pre-pandemic technology growth rates. If we look across our business.

Our average bill rate actually expanded, I think, for the second consecutive quarter, so it's approaching $91 an hour. The margin profile has continued to be very attractive. I think it was up 60 basis points in our technology business year-over-year.

To Dave's point, he touched on the strategic, continuing to drive that higher mix, both within our Consulting Solutions group in addition to the business that we have nearshore and offshore. We've talked about that having dramatically higher gross margins, but at a tactical level as well. I would give it to our teams. We've talked about the last couple of quarters at a tactical level. We are exercising really, really strong pricing discipline.

Joe talked about some of the training that we've done. We've done training in and around that as well. So our people from soup to nuts are just executing at a high level. And my compliments go out to the team. And that's frankly something Mark that within our peer set, you haven't heard a lot about margin enhancements on a year-over-year basis and with us you have. So I think it's my compliments to the team again.

Mark Marcon

Yes. I mean if I'm hearing you correctly, I'm hearing you indicate that you think that we can continue to increase the margins because it sounds like that's the direction where there's a greater percentage on both ends of the higher margin that you're working on. And then you've got price discipline with regards to domestic back augmentation. So correct me if I'm wrong, but I think you're basically saying the margins should continue to go up?

Joseph Liberatore

Yes. I think strategically, Mark, we are with intent driving a higher mix of business, and I don't expect that intent and what we're driving to necessarily change.

If you look at the long-term trajectory and the more traditional staff augmentation arena, and certainly, over time, that has become a bit more compressed. But I think we're overcoming that through some of the tactical measures that we're doing. You saw that over the kind of year-over-year comparisons. So yes, I think it's a balance, Mark, as you look at the long-term trajectory in our business.

Mark Marcon

Okay. Great. And then one last one. Just on the free cash flow, Jeff, you mentioned that you had that client that just basically delayed the payment but that's coming through. So should the free cash flow improve in a noticeable way in the fourth quarter?

Jeffrey Hackman

Yes. I think, Mark, I think you hit the nail on the head. Our operating cash flows normalized for that client that kind of straddled Q3 and Q4 were effectively at our expectations. Q4, we're expecting also to be a cash flow positive quarter as well.

Year-to-date through Q3, we turned cash flow positive at the operating cash flow line. And I think, Mark, we would trade probably all day, any day working through some of the working capital constraints that we've seen in our business. We're trading that for certainly the revenue payouts.

Naturally, as you look back, Q4 and Q1 are historically some of our lighter operating cash flows, Q1 from a profitability, from a payroll tax perspective, and then in Q4, we have a lot of our annualized performance-based compensation plans. Those payments fall in the fourth quarter as well. So it will be certainly compared to Q3 a little bit more subdued. But certainly expect positive operating cash in Q4.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Trevor Romeo with William Blair. Your line is open Trevor. Please go ahead.

Trevor Romeo

Good evening to the team. I did want to follow up maybe on the demand environment a little bit differently and particularly the progression over the past few months. So it sounds like you saw an improvement kind of from the low point in July and saw strength continuing in September and October.

So question here is, would you say what you're seeing now is kind of similar to, I guess, it's been a few years since we've seen a normal here. But similar to maybe a normal build that you would see into year-end? Or is it maybe a bit stronger than that given the momentum that you've been seeing lately?

David Kelly

Yes. Trevor, I appreciate the question. So as you alluded to, July was a little lower. I think that's more of a summer dynamic.

Frankly, yes, a nice build in August, September, October, I think we can actually feel very good about that. The strength that we're seeing here is reflective of a very good environment. So as I kind of think about where we are as a business, we've alluded to in the past, some pre-pandemic growth. This very much feels like a very normal environment where you've got talent that's shortage, you've got client demand, certainly, of work that they want to do. So flexible talent is really important.

So I think we can look at this very typically, right? The thought process that all of the AI dynamics might have a long-term or at least short-term impact on the need for Flex certainly appears to be a bit overstated, right? We're not seeing that. We're seeing a much more normal environment where skills and skill set needs have changed. And we, as a flexible provider of talent, our core competency is recruiting in the space and making sure that we can identify that talent. We do it very well. and we're taking advantage of that and meeting our clients' needs where that need is.

Trevor Romeo

That's helpful. And then for my follow-up here, I know you talked about kind of selectively adding some head count in Q3 given the revenue trends you're seeing I think you've also talked in the past about having pent-up capacity on the sales side and you're also getting some productivity benefits from technology. So I guess I'm curious for a little more detail there, kind of more on what you're adding. And then kind of what gives you the confidence to add resources now rather than trying to maybe harvest more of that excess capacity and operating leverage?

David Kelly

Yes, I think it's a combination because I do think, Trevor, we are harvesting that capacity as well. So for us, let me answer your questions that I can remember them. So I'll start with the back end. Where are we adding those resources. We're adding them geographically in the areas where we've had the strongest growth and in the particular markets where we outstrip capacity, we need to make sure we don't fall behind the curve there, number one.

Number two, we're adding capabilities within our consulting services business. I've alluded to the growing pipeline there. And I think as our thought process here is to make sure that we're putting ourselves in a position where we're meeting our clients' needs, we were able to take the opportunity to gain client share certainly is the case.

And yes, we've got capacity. But frankly, growing near 8% when we came into the beginning of this year. I don't know that our expectation necessarily was to do that. So we want to make sure because our outlook is quite positive, that we don't get into a position where in a particular market, we don't -- we miss an opportunity because we don't have capacity.

So this is not a huge surge in adding. This is selective investments in particular markets, where we're doing extremely well with our clients. And then in addition to that, making sure that we're building the capacity for the building pipelines and our consulting services business.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kartik Mehta with Northcoast Research.

Kartik Mehta

Jeff, maybe to start off on just the margin conversation discussion we're having. I think in the past, you've said in '27, you still have some Workday implementation left and maybe that's in the first half. As you look at kind of revenue growth as we go into '27, if these trends continue, would you anticipate SG&A to grow slower than revenue growth and then also have a positive impact on gross margins as you were answering the question, do you expect improvement in margins as we go into '27? Or does that the improvement moderate and the real improvement happened to '21 after all the implementation.

Jeffrey Hackman

So Kartik, good to be with you -- good to hear from you. So to answer your question on our Workday implementation, some of the benefits, I did put in the script, and this has been consistent with our prior calls that a lot of the benefits that we expect from leveraging the Workday products are going to start towards the tail end of 2027, and then we'll ramp more fully to the intended benefits as we work into 2028.

From an overall posture perspective, look at our business, growing close to 8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, growing at 7% at the midpoint of our guide. Dave just talked about some of the investments that we've made in that demand and then deepening further our consulting expertise.

I think, Kartik, as you look into 2027, I would expect as you -- as it relates to in proportion to the revenue growth. I certainly would expect SG&A to increase at a lower rate than the overall revenue growth. So we do think that is certainly the expectation. And frankly, what we've been seeing over time.

You can look back. I think at similar revenue levels is what we're delivering today, you look back to fourth quarter of and you kind of look at a revenue per performer. We've done a really nice job and have improved the revenue per performer over that time span by 30%.

So to Dave's earlier comments about capacity and harvesting some of the productivity gains, we're certainly doing that. So hopefully, that helps, Kartik.

David Kelly

Yes. Kartik, I would just add a couple of other things. So kind of put the whole picture together. So we've got the benefits that we're going to derive from the Workday implementation. Jeff has already talked about the margins as we think about a strategic mix and the consulting business growing, that's going to be additive to margins. Certainly, gross margins as well.

As we grow our share of our business, it's in India, that is also a higher profit business. mix for us. That's adding as well. And then we've got scale opportunities, right? Leadership scale, and SG&A scale on fixed costs that we're going to have. So you take all of those things together, and that gives us great confidence in our ability to continue to improve margins well beyond where they are today.

Kartik Mehta

And just as a follow-up, if I think about the consulting solutions contract and how long it takes to convert that to revenue. And I think you said in the third quarter, you had record activity. And I'm trying to just determine when that turns to revenue and how much of an impact do you think that could have in 2027.

David Kelly

Well, I would make -- well, things are -- we're at record levels because the business as well continues to grow, right? I alluded to the fact that, that part of our business has been growing for a number of years at a double-digit rate. Our expectation is for that to continue. So as far as that lead lag, we've got things that are coming into the chute in the coming quarter, that had been a quarter or 2 out an investigation as well. So it's really just a momentum build on itself.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Chan with UBS. Please go ahead.

Joshua Chan

Congrats on a good quarter. I was wondering if you could talk to sort of your commercial success, I suppose, with the consulting and even in the staff augmentation what do you think is kind of leading you to be able to achieve kind of this level of success versus like the market?

David Kelly

Gosh, I think that there's a number of things that come to mind. We've touched a lot on the execution of the team. So our team has done an excellent job executing on a plan focused plan it goes to our strategic model as well, right? We are an organic story that is not distracted by anything outside of our core effectively technology business, in our F&A business, which is also doing a nice job.

Our model is very focused on a pretty narrow group of skill sets for which there is consistent demand. And we've got a client portfolio that we are focused on growing client share obsessively. And so you put all of those things together, it's a model that we've been executing on for a number of years, unchanged. All of those things, I think, have allowed us over a long period of time to outperform our peers.

Joseph Liberatore

And I would also add, I believe the backdrop has shifted a little bit. I mean we've seen now the last couple of quarters, rising conversions. Also, we see more resignations taking place which I think is creating a replacement demand aspect.

We basically view that as a positive signal regarding market health. That's the churn that's really been missing in the marketplace for a number of years now. which is really a sign of an overall healthier employment market. I mean I think this past quarter, our conversions were -- I think they were up about 23% year-over-year. Last quarter, they were up a little over 30% year-over-year. And I think that really reflects a greater client willingness to hire talent directly.

In addition to this, our teams are experiencing a lot more counteroffers today than what we were experiencing even a year ago. Along with consultants receiving multiple offers.

So while that creates challenges, it's actually very positive challenges and the kind of challenges that our team is very well equipped to deal with. So I do believe we have an overall backdrop that is also improving for us in addition to the execution points that Dave had touched upon.

Joshua Chan

Okay. That's really helpful color. I appreciate that. And then maybe one on the guidance. I guess, I know December is always a tricky month to predict. So I guess what does the guidance assume in terms of sort of the momentum into December and into the holidays?

Jeffrey Hackman

Yes. And Josh, this is Jeff. I appreciate chatting with you again this quarter. we've got visibility, Josh. I think the -- certainly, the Christmas holiday and the New Year's falls at a weekend. We've certainly got a lot of experience in navigating through the holidays. Those are, to your point, always a bit tricky and uncertain -- we have taken into account all of what we would know to take into account from a fourth quarter perspective.

When you look at our guide at the midpoint in our technology business, it's up overall, we said in the script, 2.7%. Our technology business is expected to be up at the midpoint about 3%. As you look back to the fourth quarter of last year, we delivered 3% per billing day sequential growth. And last year, what we saw was somewhat similar to what we started seeing in the third quarter of this year.

Mid-August through the end of the quarter, and it was particularly strong. October started off very well last year and this year. Last year, as you remember, Josh, the momentum that we built went through the Thanksgiving Day holiday and went through the first week in December. Time will tell whether we see a repeat of last year. But we've taken into account our certainly our recent trends and as best as we can tell what we expect from a fourth quarter standpoint.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Tobey Sommer with Truth Securities.

Tobey Sommer

I wanted to ask a question about the path towards an 8% EBIT margin as we get back up to prior revenue levels. Do you expect the margin expansion to be evenly or just portionally driven by gross margin versus G&A leverage?

Jeffrey Hackman

Yes. Tobey, it's Jeff. I think you're going to have a little bit more of a linear equation when you look at the gross margin and the Flex margin contribution towards that. Dave Kelly touched upon our continued strategic drive of a healthier business mix more geared towards our consulting solutions and more geared towards our nearshore and offshore business. Each one of those has significantly higher overall Flex margins that we have been driving, and I would continue to expect us to drive that into the future. .

We've talked about SG&A leverage. We certainly expect the benefits from our Workday implementation. I would imagine that's going to be a little bit more of a step function into it as opposed to a linear equation. I mentioned in my prepared remarks that we would expect to start to work into those benefits towards the end of 2027 and then more fully into 2028.

And then, of course, Tobey, between now and the $1.7 billion to get the natural lift from a scale perspective. So those three components, and I would tell you, the productivity comment that I made from earlier in addition to our Workday, we are constantly trying to look to give our people the tools and the technology to position them for the most success in driving productivity. So those are some of the components, I would say, the only one that's more of a step function versus linear would be the benefits that we expect from our work to implementation. Hopefully, that helps, Tobey.

Tobey Sommer

It does. In the F&A business, do you have an opportunity to leverage your offshore presence in an equivalent fashion to technology? Or is there -- are there elements of that, that are different?

David Kelly

Yes, Tobey, this is Dave. No, not nearly to the extent when you think about our technology business and those are much more larger for us, larger project-oriented blended models that's what has led itself to the use of our offshore. Our F&A business is less of that type of business. So it's probably smaller assignments at clients. maybe a little bit shorter duration assignments as well. So it is not expected, at least at this point to utilize a lot of the offshore. That we're building.

Joseph Liberatore

Yes. The key is we're not doing BPO type oriented work, which is where you'd really see that come into play from an FA standpoint. And as David mentioned, remember, going back to one of our key drivers of going to India is because we saw more of this need for blended teams, a combination of onshore, nearshore, offshore teams for a variety of reasons.

One of those is access to talent, which is obviously why we're in India because of the access to the talent pools, especially from an AI standpoint in comparison to where the U.S. talent pool is at this point in time. So those are really the drivers, not necessarily in support of the FA business because, again, this went back to the solutions-oriented the types of projects that we are working on.

Tobey Sommer

Great. And then last question for me is like from a visibility perspective and assignment length perspective when you blend in your exposure offshore, how is that trending? And do you have momentum into sort of visibility of that project duration elongating?

Jeffrey Hackman

Tobey, this is Jeff. Yes, it's been pretty stable. Of course, we've talked in the past that our consulting solutions offering has longer overall assignment lengths -- the business that we have offshore is predominantly supporting our consulting solutions offering as well. So there's a little bit of a mix benefit there.

But overall, Tobey, when you look at the visibility in the business has been very, very stable, if not slightly elongating but nothing meaningful that I will call out.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Joe Liberatore for closing remarks.

Joseph Liberatore

Well, thank you for your interest and support of Kforce. I'd like to express my gratitude to every Preserve for your efforts. And to our consultants and clients for your trust and faith in partnering with Kforce and allowing us the privilege of serving you. We look forward to talking with you again after fourth quarter of 2026. Thank you.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.