การแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ Chord Energy (CHRD): FCF 442 ล้านดอลลาร์ พร้อมปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์การผลิตน้ำมัน

คอร์ด เอนเนอร์ยี (NASDAQ: CHRD) รายงานกระแสเงินสดอิสระที่ปรับปรุงแล้วประมาณ 442 ล้านดอลลาร์สำหรับไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 โดยเงินสดส่วนใหญ่ถูกส่งคืนให้แก่ผู้ถือหุ้น นอกจากนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารยังได้ปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์ปริมาณการผลิตน้ำมันเป็นครั้งที่สองในปี 2026 โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากการผลิตพื้นฐานที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้นและประสิทธิภาพการดำเนินงาน

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• กระแสเงินสดอิสระที่ปรับปรุงแล้วในไตรมาส 3 อยู่ที่ประมาณ 442 ล้านดอลลาร์ ทั้งนี้ นอกเหนือจากเงินปันผลพื้นฐาน 1.30 ดอลลาร์ต่อหุ้นแล้ว ยังมีการส่งคืนผลตอบแทนแก่ผู้ถือหุ้นผ่านการซื้อหุ้นคืน
• นับตั้งแต่ประกาศการควบรวมกิจการกับเอเนอร์พลัสในปี 2024 คอร์ดได้ซื้อหุ้นคืนไปแล้วประมาณ 10.8 ล้านหุ้น ซึ่งช่วยลดจำนวนหุ้นปรับลดทั้งหมดลง 17%.
• คอร์ดปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์ปริมาณการผลิตน้ำมันในปี 2026 เป็นครั้งที่สอง จากระดับเริ่มต้นที่ประมาณ 159 พันบาร์เรลต่อวัน เป็น 165 พันบาร์เรลต่อวัน โดยระบุถึงการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพการผลิตพื้นฐานและความสำเร็จในการดำเนินงาน
• โครงการริเริ่มด้านการตลาดล่าสุดคาดว่าจะช่วยประหยัดต้นทุนได้ 35 ล้านถึง 55 ล้านดอลลาร์ ต่อปี และเมื่อรวมกับมาตรการที่ประกาศไปก่อนหน้านี้ ยอดประหยัดต้นทุนต่อปีรวมจะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 85 ล้านดอลลาร์.
• คอร์ดได้นำหลุมเจาะความยาว 4 ไมล์จำนวน 47 หลุม เข้าสู่ระบบการผลิต ณ สิ้นไตรมาส โดยต้นทุนการขุดเจาะหลุมความยาว 4 ไมล์ลดลงประมาณ 9% นับตั้งแต่ไตรมาส 1 ขณะที่ผลิตภาพการทำแฟร็กเจอร์ริ่งเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 20% นับจากต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน.
• ฝ่ายบริหารยังคงตั้งเป้าส่งคืนผลตอบแทนอย่างน้อย 75% ของกระแสเงินสดอิสระ ให้แก่ผู้ถือหุ้น หลังจากเลเวอเรจลดลงมาอยู่ต่ำกว่า 0.5 เท่า.

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

คอร์ดยังคงเป็นผู้ถือครองพื้นที่สัมปทานและเป็นผู้ผลิตรายใหญ่ที่สุดในแหล่งบักเคน โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่า ปัจจุบันบริษัทมีสัดส่วนการผลิตคิดเป็นประมาณ 13% ถึง 14% ของผลผลิตทั้งหมดในแอ่งวิลลิสตัน และยังคงมองว่าตนเองเป็นผู้ควบรวมกิจการตามธรรมชาติในภูมิภาคนี้

การผลิตพื้นฐานทำผลงานได้ดีกว่าคาดในปี 2026 โดยได้รับแรงหนุนจากการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพหลุมเจาะและโครงการบำบัดด้วยสารเคมี คอร์ดได้ดำเนินการบำบัดในกระบวนการผลิตไปแล้วหลายร้อยครั้ง ครอบคลุมการใช้กรด ตัวทำละลาย สารลดแรงตึงผิว และการประยุกต์ใช้ร่วมกัน ทั้งนี้ บริษัทกำลังประเมินว่าการบำบัดรูปแบบใดให้ผลตอบแทนคุ้มค่าที่สุดเพื่อนำไปบรรจุไว้ในแผนงานปี 2027

โครงการขุดเจาะหลุมแนวนอนความยาว 4 ไมล์ยังคงเป็นไปตามความคาดหมายของฝ่ายบริหาร โดยคอร์ดได้นำหลุมเจาะความยาว 4 ไมล์เข้าสู่ระบบการผลิตแล้ว 47 หลุม ณ สิ้นไตรมาส พร้อมทั้งทำความสะอาดหลุมเจาะที่สร้างเสร็จสมบูรณ์ทุกหลุมจนถึงระดับความลึกสูงสุด และตรวจพบสารติดตามผ่านปลายหลุมเจาะ ทั้งนี้ ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าอาจต้องใช้ข้อมูลการผลิตเพิ่มเติมอีกหนึ่งปีเพื่อประเมินผลผลิตส่วนเพิ่มที่แท้จริงจากไมล์ที่สี่ได้อย่างเต็มที่

ประสิทธิภาพการดำเนินงานช่วยชดเชยภาวะเงินเฟ้อของต้นทุนที่อยู่ในระดับหลักเดียวช่วงต่ำถึงปานกลาง โดยต้นทุนการขุดเจาะหลุมความยาว 4 ไมล์ลดลงประมาณ 9% จากไตรมาส 1 ขณะที่ผลิตภาพการทำแฟร็กเจอร์ริ่งเพิ่มขึ้นมากกว่า 20% นับจากต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน และในปัจจุบันทีมปฏิบัติงานสามารถทำแฟร็กเจอร์ริ่งได้เฉลี่ยมากกว่าหนึ่งไมล์ต่อวัน

สินทรัพย์ที่ไม่ได้เป็นผู้ดำเนินการคิดเป็นสัดส่วนประมาณ 10% ถึง 15% ของปริมาณการผลิตของคอร์ด โดยกิจกรรมแท่นขุดเจาะในแอ่งที่เพิ่มขึ้นราว 30% ในช่วงครึ่งหลังของปี 2026 ส่งผลให้มีค่าใช้จ่ายในส่วนที่ไม่ได้เป็นผู้ดำเนินการเพิ่มขึ้น ซึ่งฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าเป็นการเข้าร่วมในโครงการที่น่าสนใจในพื้นที่หลัก

คาดการณ์จากฝ่ายบริหาร

ฝ่ายบริหารได้ปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์ปริมาณการผลิตในไตรมาส 4 ให้สูงกว่าแนวโน้มที่ประเมินไว้ในเดือนสิงหาคม และระบุว่าตัวเลขคาดการณ์ปริมาณการผลิตน้ำมันในปี 2026 ได้รับการปรับเพิ่มขึ้นเป็นครั้งที่สองแล้ว โดยแนวโน้มที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้นนี้สะท้อนถึงการเพิ่มประสิทธิภาพการผลิต ประสิทธิภาพในการขุดเจาะและการทำหลุมให้สมบูรณ์ ตลอดจนการเปิดผลิตหลุมเจาะเพิ่มเติมเข้าสู่ระบบ

แนวโน้มงบลงทุนปี 2026 ฉบับปรับปรุงของคอร์ดอยู่ที่ประมาณ 1.46 พันล้านดอลลาร์ การเพิ่มขึ้นนี้รวมถึงกิจกรรมการดำเนินงานทั้งในส่วนที่ดำเนินการเองและไม่ได้ดำเนินการเองที่เพิ่มขึ้น ตลอดจนเงินลงทุนเพิ่มเติมอีก 20 ล้านดอลลาร์ สำหรับโครงการกลางน้ำ โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการใช้จ่ายในธุรกิจกลางน้ำนี้มีไว้เพื่อรองรับแผนงานเดิมมากกว่าเพื่อการเติบโตของปริมาณการผลิตส่วนเพิ่ม

สำหรับปี 2027 ฝ่ายบริหารเห็นความชัดเจนในการรักษาปริมาณการผลิตน้ำมันไว้ที่ประมาณ 162.5 พันบาร์เรลต่อวัน ทั้งนี้ ขึ้นอยู่กับการตัดสินใจจัดสรรเงินทุนขั้นสุดท้ายและสภาวะตลาดสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ โดยคาดว่าจะมีการเปิดเผยรายละเอียดคาดการณ์ปี 2027 ในเดือนกุมภาพันธ์

คาดว่าปริมาณการผลิตจะลดลงจากไตรมาส 4 เข้าสู่ไตรมาส 1 ปี 2027 หลังจากที่คอร์ดได้คืนทีมงานทำแฟร็กเจอร์ริ่งทีมที่สอง โดยคาดว่าเดือนธันวาคมจะเป็นเดือนที่มีปริมาณการผลิตต่ำที่สุดตามแนวโน้มของไตรมาส 4 และเนื่องจากทีมงานที่จะกลับเข้ามาจะเริ่มทำงานบนลานหลุมเจาะแบบหลายหลุมในเบื้องต้น ฝ่ายบริหารจึงคาดว่าปริมาณการผลิตจะยังไม่เพิ่มขึ้นอย่างมีนัยสำคัญจนกว่าจะถึงไตรมาส 2 และจะปรับตัวเพิ่มขึ้นต่อเนื่องในไตรมาส 3

ปัจจัยเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตามอง

• ความผันผวนของราคาน้ำมันอาจเปลี่ยนสมดุลระหว่างการลงทุนขุดเจาะกับการซื้อหุ้นคืน
• ต้นทุนค่าบริการเพิ่มขึ้นในอัตราระดับหลักเดียวช่วงต่ำถึงปานกลางในปี 2026 โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าแนวโน้มในปี 2027 จะขึ้นอยู่กับราคาสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์และกิจกรรมในอุตสาหกรรม
• ทีมงานทำแฟร็กเจอร์ริ่งยังคงตึงตัว และกำหนดเวลาที่ทีมงานชุดที่สองจะกลับมาปฏิบัติงานนั้นขึ้นอยู่กับความพร้อมของผู้ให้บริการ
• การประหยัดต้นทุนด้านการตลาดบางส่วนที่เพิ่งประกาศไปจะไม่เริ่มรับรู้จนกว่าจะถึงปลายปี 2027 หรือปี 2028
• ความคุ้มค่าทางเศรษฐศาสตร์อย่างเต็มรูปแบบของช่วงไมล์ที่สี่ในการขุดเจาะแนวนอนระยะไกลของคอร์ดยังจำเป็นต้องอาศัยประวัติข้อมูลการผลิตเพิ่มเติม
• กิจกรรมในส่วนที่ไม่ได้เป็นผู้ดำเนินการที่สูงขึ้นมีความยืดหยุ่นน้อยกว่าในช่วงปลายปี แม้ว่าคอร์ดจะสามารถปรับแผนงานในส่วนที่ดำเนินการเองได้ตลอดทั้งรอบปีก็ตาม

ไฮไลท์ช่วงถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

การคืนผลตอบแทนแก่ผู้ถือหุ้น: ฝ่ายบริหารย้ำจุดยืนในการส่งคืนกระแสเงินสดอิสระอย่างน้อย 75% ให้แก่ผู้ถือหุ้น หลังจากเลเวอเรจลดลงมาต่ำกว่า 0.5 เท่า ทั้งนี้ แผนการขายสินทรัพย์ที่ไม่ใช่ธุรกิจหลักในแหล่งมาร์เซลลัสคาดว่าจะช่วยเพิ่มความยืดหยุ่นให้แก่งบดุล โดยขึ้นอยู่กับการปิดดีล

กลยุทธ์แหล่งบักเคน: ไมเคิล ลู ซีอีโอคนใหม่ กล่าวว่ากลยุทธ์ของคอร์ดยังคงมุ่งเน้นไปที่แอ่งวิลลิสตันเป็นหลัก แม้ว่าบริษัทจะประเมินโอกาสในพื้นที่อื่น ๆ ด้วย แต่การเข้าซื้อกิจการทั้ง 5 ครั้งในช่วง 5 ปีที่ผ่านมาล้วนเกิดขึ้นภายในแอ่งแห่งนี้ ซึ่งฝ่ายบริหารเชื่อว่าคอร์ดมีความทับซ้อนในการดำเนินงานและมีศักยภาพในการผนึกกำลังร่วมกันสูงสุด

การประหยัดต้นทุนด้านการตลาด: ยอดประหยัดส่วนเพิ่มส่วนใหญ่ที่ประกาศพร้อมผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 คาดว่าจะมีผลในช่วงปี 2026 หรือต้นปี 2027 โดยประมาณหนึ่งในสี่จะเกิดขึ้นในช่วงปลายปี 2027 และปี 2028 ซึ่งประโยชน์จะปรากฏในค่าใช้จ่ายด้านการรวบรวม การแปรรูป และการขนส่ง ราคาขายสินค้าโภคภัณฑ์ที่ได้รับจริง และในค่าใช้จ่ายในการดำเนินงานตามสัญญาเช่าในสัดส่วนที่น้อยกว่า

การประกันความเสี่ยง: นโยบายของคอร์ดคือการทำสัญญาป้องกันความเสี่ยงมากขึ้นเมื่อราคาน้ำมันสูงขึ้น และทำน้อยลงเมื่อราคาลดลง โดยฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าความแข็งแกร่งของงบดุลช่วยลดความจำเป็นในการป้องกันความเสี่ยงช่วงขาลงอย่างครอบคลุม

โอกาสในการร่วมทุน: ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าจะพิจารณาโครงสร้างที่ช่วยเพิ่มผลตอบแทนให้แก่ผู้ถือหุ้น แต่เน้นย้ำว่าคอร์ดต้องการขุดเจาะและทำหลุมเจาะด้วยตนเองมากกว่า เนื่องจากความคุ้มค่าทางเศรษฐศาสตร์ที่สร้างขึ้นโดยทีมปฏิบัติงาน

บทถอดเสียงการประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Chord Energy Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This call is being recorded on Thursday, November 5, 2026.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Bob Bakanauskas, Vice President, Finance. Please go ahead.

Bob Bakanauskas

Thanks, Julie. Good morning, everyone. This is Bob Bakanauskas, and today, we're reporting our third quarter 2026 financial and operational results. We are delighted to have you on the call. I'm joined today by Michael Lou, our CEO; and Darrin Henke, our COO; Richard Robuck, our CFO; as well as other members of the team.

Please be advised that our remarks, including the answers to your questions, include statements that we believe to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from those currently disclosed in our earnings releases and on our conference calls. Those risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our earnings releases as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. During this conference call, we will make reference to non-GAAP measures, and reconciliations to the applicable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings releases and on our website. We may also reference our current investor presentation, which you can find on our website.

And with that, I'll turn the call over to our CEO, Michael Lou.

Michael Lou

Thanks, Bob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Last night, we issued our third quarter press release and presentation with details on our strategy, operations and financial performance. As this is my first earnings call as CEO, I'll start with a few thoughts on Chord's progress over the past several years and our priorities going forward. I'll then review our quarterly results and outlook before we open the call up for questions.

For more than 5 years, I've had the pleasure of working closely with Danny Brown to build a strong foundation for Chord. Danny is an incredible leader and a good friend, and I wish him all the best in his next adventure. Over the past 5 years, through volatile energy markets, the Chord team has strengthened our competitive position and delivered value for our shareholders. Today, Chord is a more resilient company positioned to withstand downturns and create value through the cycle. Continuous improvement has been central to that progress. Our talented team is committed to getting better every day and our results reflect that commitment.

As shown on Slide 9 in our presentation, we have grown free cash flow per share by roughly 35% over the past 2 years on a price-neutral basis, through disciplined capital allocation and driving operational excellence. Over a 5-year period, Chord has driven 11% annual growth in oil production per share. This growth has been delivered while we have built a large resilient production base with low declines, which translates to a low reinvestment rate and higher free cash flow generation. We have also preserved a deep low-cost inventory and improved its quality through optimized spacing, longer laterals, faster cycle times and disciplined acquisitions.

Over the past 5 years, we've completed 5 acquisitions in the Williston Basin, becoming the largest acreage holder and producer in the Bakken. These transactions varied in size and scope but we successfully integrated the assets and captured substantial efficiencies. We also streamlined our portfolio by divesting noncore assets at attractive valuations and reinvesting the proceeds in the areas of competitive strength. Together, these efforts have generated strong sustainable free cash flow, which alongside sizable share repurchases significantly increased production per share. We achieved this growth while returning substantial cash to shareholders through dividends and maintaining a strong balance sheet.

Looking ahead, our priorities remain consistent. We will apply the same capital discipline to organic investments and acquisitions. We will continue to improve performance across the business and evaluate every investment through the lens of shareholder returns. A strong balance sheet will underpin this approach, providing downside protection and the flexibility to pursue generated free cash flow above expectations and return substantial capital to shareholders.

We also advanced strategic initiatives that we believe will strengthen the business and enhance long-term free cash flow generation. Adjusted free cash flow was approximately $442 million, the majority of which we returned to shareholders. Beyond our base dividend of $1.30 per share, all capital return was through share repurchases.

Since announcing the Enerplus combination in 2024, we have reduced fully diluted shares outstanding by approximately 10.8 million shares or 17%. Said another way, we have repurchased over half of the equity issued for that transaction in a little over 2 years. Throughout 2026, the Chord team has driven wins across the organization. This leads us to a fourth quarter volume guidance that is well above both our August expectations and consensus estimates. We've also been seeing more favorable pricing, reflecting external factors and lower marketing fees.

We updated our capital outlook to reflect increased operated and nonoperated activity and an additional $20 million of investment in midstream projects. The operated activity is up a bit due to drilling and completion efficiencies, which are leading to a couple more TILs on the year and the nonoperated activity has picked up over the last few months as well.

Turning to continuous improvement initiatives. Chord has made further progress in reducing our marketing costs as the team continues to simplify and optimize contracts across oil, gas and water. Our latest efforts are expected to deliver $35 million to $55 million in annual savings. These savings are incremental to those announced a year ago, bringing the total annual savings to approximately $85 million.

On the production side, Chord continues to have success with a wide variety of projects aimed at optimizing its [indiscernible] in more out of the base, and that production continues to outperform. One of the things the team has been focused on and continues to test are various chemical treatments across a broad population of wells, and we expect to determine which treatments to incorporate into our 2027 program by early next year.

Our drilling and completions team continues to improve execution and set new records. We're making progress drilling more of our 4-mile wells in a single run while frac productivity is improving and cleanouts continue to reach total depth. As of quarter end, the company has tilled 47 total 4-mile wells. Execution and production results continue to be in line with expectations.

Slide 6 in our presentation shows the progress of all the continuous improvement projects across the company. The Chord team has delivered $225 million of incremental free cash flow generation over the past 2 years from controllable items, including higher production, better capital efficiency and improved marketing costs. Thank you to each person on the Chord team. This is an incredible team effort that has driven a ton of shareholder value.

So far in 2026, we have raised oil volume guidance twice, supported by strong execution and base production optimization. Looking ahead, we are confident in our ability to sustain strong production levels in 2027 and plan to provide detail of our next year's program in February.

Finally, we recently published Chord's 2025 sustainability report as part of our commitment to transparency. I want to thank the team for its work on the report, which highlights our efforts in emissions reduction, workforce, health and safety, corporate governance, philanthropy and other areas. We remain committed to producing affordable, reliable energy in a responsible and sustainable manner.

With that, I'll hand the call over to Julie for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Josh Silverstein from UBS.

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Joshua Silverstein

Nice update on the operational front here. with the better base performance, longer laterals, the faster cycle times and going to more and more towards the 4-mile laterals now, you talk about maybe what the company's maintenance CapEx requirements look like? It seems like it's structurally coming a bit lower, especially with some of the other cost savings.

Michael Lou

Yes, Josh, thanks for the question. Clearly, the team has done an incredible job this year. You'll notice that we've increased guidance a couple of times this year on the oil side on production starting at $159 million, going to $165 million. A lot of that's kind of productivity and efficiencies kind of throughout the program. The base business has done a great job of outperforming on just every well that we currently have in the ground. On top of that, the 4-mile laterals has driven efficiencies. We've certainly seen a small amount of inflation this year that we've been able to counteract with continued efficiencies this year. So all that's been really positive.

You know that our capital programs kind of on a blended basis now, 146. So it's up a little bit because of the additional capital that we're spending a little bit on midstream with some of those opportunities coming around our efficiencies on D&C side that allows us to do a few more TILs on the operating side and a little bit more non-op. We've had about a 30% increase in rig count in the basin over the last -- the second half of this year. So we're certainly seeing some other operators picking up activity and we're participating in a little bit more on the non-op side.

So all that leads to capital now kind of at that $1.46 level. It's a little bit higher than where we were at the beginning of the year, but our production is up as well. So that's a good kind of level for this year.

Joshua Silverstein

Got it. And then just wanted to think about how you're balancing the free cash flow allocation, obviously, a very strong year for oil pricing. You highlighted the continuation of the buyback into the fourth quarter as well. Just given where the balance sheet is, should we still think about maybe a 75% of free cash flow going to shareholder returns? Do you want to build up some cash just in case oil prices continue to come lower? How are you thinking about that rate of return?

Michael Lou

Yes. Good question. On the capital allocation side, obviously, we've been -- I think we've had strong focus on that over the last 5 years, and we'll continue to have that going forward. And as you mentioned, we've got a lot of different levers that we can think about, whether it's this year, certainly, since the early part of this year with oil prices up, one of the things is sticking about are there short cycle kind of projects that we can bring forward volumes. You're seeing a lot of that in a lot of the base work that our team has done.

We've been able to do some good acquisitions. We've -- in that time frame that we've been bringing our -- even after the most recent acquisition late last year, brought our balance sheet back in under half a turn of leverage. So now we're back into that 75-plus percent of return going back to shareholders, so we'll continue to lean into that side. And then with a good sales of noncore assets in the Marcellus that should close later this year, we'll be in a great position no matter what the cycle brings. Obviously, we're seeing some volatility in oil prices over the last -- well here. But we think that we're going to continue to be in a constructive environment, and we're in great shape on that front.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Hanold from RBC.

Scott Hanold

Michael, congrats on the promotion. You've been with the Chord entity a long time. And you gave just some high-level thoughts on Core's future, but I'd be more interested to hear like strategically, do you see the business any different? And if you can layer in thoughts about like does it make sense for Chord to stay within the Bakken? Or longer term, do you see optionality of stepping out at any point in time?

Michael Lou

Yes, Scott, I don't think anything really changes from the way we've been messaging over the last few years. I think that we're the largest producer in the basin right now. We also have kind of a vast acreage position kind of across the basin. The nice thing for us is that we see for 13%, 14% of the basin today in terms of production. We've still got a lot of room to run to continue to consolidate the basin. We think there are some interesting opportunities that could present themselves over the next few years, and we want to be kind of make sure that we have a balance sheet that's ready for that, that -- we think there were probably the natural consolidator in the basin. We think that we can drive more efficiencies than anybody else. We have more overlap than anybody else in a number of these positions.

So we think that there's just like a lot of opportunities in front of us in the basin. We'll always look at things outside the basin, but we've been doing that for 5 years and if you look at kind of track record, we've done 5 deals and they've all been within the Williston. That's where we can -- we know what we can drive in terms of value. So I don't think the change will be any different. In the meantime, our focus continues to be on what we have in front of us. And we talked about that continuous improvement side. And we've got to get better every day on our asset. And that would -- as we do that, it gives us more of the right to be the consolidator in the basin going forward. So there's going to be a continued focus on just getting better every day and that continuous improvement side.

Scott Hanold

Appreciate that. My follow-up question is a little bit on 2027. I know you're going to give guidance next year. So I won't kind of pin you down to that or anything like this. But your base production has improved quite a bit this year. It looks like at least 3,000 barrels a day. As you kind of think of the current environment we're in, and your prior view of 159 being sort of that baseline level for you all. How do you think about that base improvement? Should we add that to the prior 159. Is that how we should think about it? Or is -- does that provide you an opportunity to flex down in case something on the macro side becomes uncertain?

Michael Lou

Yes. I think we'll always look at what the right thing to do is on that capital allocation side. And obviously, if our shares, we think, are in a great place to buy back right now. But if you saw massive weakness in oil price and capital costs don't come down and the same proportion? And should we allocate more to buybacks? Or should we allocate more to the drill bit, we'll make all those decisions going forward. Right now, we think there's good visibility on some of those production improvements, and we see good visibility on kind of holding that new call it, 162.5 flat going forward. So that's, I think, what we're looking for next year. But we're seeing that base performance really been replicated longer term.

Operator

Your next question comes from Gabe Daoud from Truist.

Gabe Daoud

congrats on the promotion. I was hoping we can maybe yes, sure -- I hope we can maybe start with the marketing. -- upside that you guys have articulated through some renegotiations. I guess curious if you could maybe frame where -- what the realized run rate is today and how much additional benefit maybe kicks in next year? And what drives the ramp towards like that high-end number that you guys highlighted?

Richard Robuck

Sure. Yes, that's a great question. I think we've been talking for some time -- this is Richard -- for some time now about the fact that this organization was put together over the past 1.5 decades with a bunch of consolidation in the basin, where there's small players that have come together and then we brought together obviously, the kind of the 3 largest companies in the basin. And over time, each one of those organizations are putting in marketing contracts, most of those got put in place in the early 2010s through '15, and there were kind of 10- to 10-year deals. And then over time, they start to expire. And with the consolidation, you just have a lot more flexibility one, to pivot around with your rigs to pick and choose the best places to drill from a rock perspective as well as a marketing economics perspective.

And then two, you have the ability to put together and optimize around the contracts that you do have. And that whole while as we were consolidating the basin a lot more midstream infrastructure was being put in place and being built by all the different midstream folks that you know well that are playing in the basin. And so with our efforts with the starting contracts and then just the consolidation we've done, we've had a ton of success. We announced the incremental uptick today. that -- the way we've articulated that is like on an annualized run rate basis. So a fair amount of what we announced on an incremental basis today is going to be worked through this year or early next year. And then there's probably a 1/4 of it that's still to come in the late '27 and '28 time frame.

So there's still stuff that we have put into place that won't occur until a little bit out in time. But it's -- the team has done -- the marketing team has done an amazing job optimize on that front. And we still see that there's room to go from the perspective that there's still contracts that are coming due and the team is trying to optimize around that.

Gabe Daoud

Okay. A quick follow-up to that, so most of it lands in the GP&T line item. Is that fair? So there's maybe more downward pressure on the $260 million?

Richard Robuck

Yes. I mean a piece of it is there, obviously. I don't -- I'm not trying to be okay, but it is there, but you also see it in realizations as well on the NGLs and gas side. So that's a component of it. You'll see it in the GBT. And then to a lesser extent, you'll see it on the LOE side. as we work on the water contracts as well.

Gabe Daoud

Got it. Okay. No, I understand, just given the contract structure it can land in different buckets, but that's helpful. And then my follow-up guys is just maybe an update on your 4-mile lateral program. You noted Fort 7 have been till to date. Just any maybe updated learnings on the productivity side? Is it still more or less tracking how you thought the wells would do relative to 2 milers?

Darrin Henke

Yes, Gabe, this is Darrin. Yes, the 4-mile wells are performing right like we'd expect. We're drilling them a little bit quicker than what we were earlier in the year. Our drilling costs are down about 9% since the first quarter. And the production performance is as expected at this point. We're probably a year away from really figuring out what's the full contribution on that last mile, that fourth mile. But to date, all of our tracers are showing recovery clear to the toe. We've cleaned out every single 1 of our 4-mile wells to the toe. And everything is -- the team is just performing flawlessly. So no surprises there at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners.

Kevin MacCurdy

Congratulations, Michael. My first question on the non-op. Maybe you can give a little bit more color on the size of the non-op increase? And are there indications that that's going to kind of persist into 2027?

Michael Lou

Yes. I mean, think about this, we had about a 30% increase in rig count towards the second half of the year. a lot of other operators with the higher oil prices picking up rig activity. And so what it's doing is it's driving some of that late in year non-op activity that's driving that. With a healthy oil price. So I would assume that some of that stays into next year. Obviously, we can through a full year program, we can flex a little bit with our operated program to kind of manage that. But some of this late in year stuff is a little bit more difficult to manage. But they're good projects, right? I mean we're in a constructive oil price. This is in areas that are good areas that we want to participate, the good returning projects. So we'll participate here at the end of the year. That's a little bit of that color.

Kevin MacCurdy

Great. I appreciate that. That's helpful. And then as a follow-up, and I don't want to get too cute on forward guidance, but does the additional CapEx that you're spending in fourth quarter and maybe those -- the 2 new turn lines and the non-op, does that help the kind of decline that we've seen in the first quarter over the past couple of years at Chord, maybe kind of keeping your production more level loaded?

Michael Lou

Yes. I think that's a great question. But the reality is we dropped that second frac crew and so we've been coming down. So like our entry to exit, if you will, for even the fourth quarter as, I'd say, higher to lower. So December is going to be the lowest month of our fourth quarter guide, and that's going to trail into the first quarter as well. And then we'll start the frac crew. But we're doing primal fracs and multi-well pads. And so you really won't see I would say, like the pickup until the second quarter. So like in the past, you'll see 1Q dip and then will start to climb in the second -- in third quarter. And that's a typical program the way that we've been laying out over the last few years.

Operator

Your next question comes from Bert Donnes from William Blair.

Bertrand Donnes

Congrats, Michael. Looking forward to seeing what you do with the assets. And then on the pull forward of CapEx on the midstream side, I just want to make sure I understood. I think I heard it described as kind of supporting next year's program. But then obviously, you guys are holding flat for now at least. Is that -- was that spend to support the flat program? Or does that set you up for potential growth next year?

Michael Lou

Yes, that midstream capital is think about what Richard was talking about in terms of work with other midstream guys, we've got contracts that are coming up and we can blend and extend, we can renegotiate. We can go with new providers. We can -- there's a lot of different things we can do in areas that we feel like we're not getting the best rates we can do some of that ourselves as well. What we found is that there's some of these areas where we're doing some of that ourselves. And it's just a little bit higher as we think about stuff that we're setting up for '27. So that's just to support the current program.

Bertrand Donnes

Got it. So it sounds like it was going to happen anyway, you're just moving where the capital is coming from. Is that right?

Michael Lou

Yes. I mean some of this can happen or if you get good third-party rates like we're happy to go with third parties, too. So it's just -- some of it is just opportunistic based on what we're seeing in the market and whether or not we're getting kind of aggressive fair rates from others or if we should do some of that ourselves.

Bertrand Donnes

Got it. Makes sense. And then kind of around M&A, but not directly. It's our understanding that their Chord isn't the only company that's maybe looking to make an acquisition or expand in the Bakken -- is there any interest because you have 10 years of inventory that may be pulling in a JV or a carry and maybe have your CapEx budget unchanged, but have someone else kind of foot the bill for that tail end inventory at the end of your stack.

Michael Lou

Yes. Good question. I mean it's always about capital allocation. So if we find good ways to think about getting better returns for our shareholders, we'll consider everything or we look at all sorts of stuff all the time.

Richard Robuck

I think it's also fair to say when you look at the best operators in the basin, we would say we are the best operator. So I think we really like to drill and complete our own wells because of the strong economics that we deliver. But there are times on a PV basis, you might think about it differently, but that's definitely a consideration on how good the team is doing here. .

Operator

Your next question comes from Noah Hungness from Wells Fargo.

Noah Hungness

Michael, congrats from the new role. For my first question here, I had one of the past on just well cost inflation, just how you're seeing leading well costs, for your 2, 3 and 4 milers, what are they now? And how has the cycle plans kind of offset some of that inflation?

Darrin Henke

Yes. So -- this is Darren. Year-to-date, we've seen kind of low to mid-single-digit type of inflation and due to the team's performance, we've been able to offset that with efficiency gains. So -- as far as specific drill times, I mentioned earlier that we have reduced our drilling costs on our 4-mile wells about 9% since the first quarter. And our frac efficiency year-to-date as far as when you think about how many feet per day that we are fracking, that's gone up over 20% year-to-date as well. So we're actually fracking over a mile a day on average at this current time. So definitely seeing inflation, but the team has done a great job offsetting it with efficiencies and depends upon the commodity price environment next year and what environment we're in, but our teams have done a great job historically of offsetting inflation with efficiency and I wouldn't expect anything different at this time looking forward.

Noah Hungness

That's helpful. And then my second question is a bit of a clarification question around the second frac or that you guys spoke about that could come back. And late '26 or early '27. Could you just maybe talk about what would drive it to come back earlier rather than later?

Darrin Henke

Really just a function of availability, the frac crews are tight in our industry, and we've contracted that crew. It's been awarded, and it's really just working with that service provider on their timing and availability relative to the work that they already have scheduled through the -- roughly through the end of the year. .

Noah Hungness

And if it does come back in late '26, does that impact the til comp that you guys provided on Slide 23? Or would the to still be '27 story?

Darrin Henke

Yes. I would think about that in terms of frac has a lot of work to do before you bring it online. So it's not going to change that piece of the business. .

Operator

Your next question comes from Oliver Huang from TPH.

Oliver Wong

Just a quick one on hedge velocity [indiscernible] .

Darrin Henke

Sorry, Oliver, you're kind of breaking up here. If you try to repeat the question, otherwise, we have to pick it up offline. You kind of broke up there. Could you try to repeat it? .

Oliver Wong

[indiscernible] .

Richard Robuck

Yes. Oliver, this is Richard. We are struggling to hear you. My hope is that everybody else can hear us, and so I'm going to proceed along those lines. And you can follow up with your question, if I did not address it. to what you were looking for. But generally, we've had the same hedge philosophy over the past few years, which is when oil price is higher hedge more and when oil price is lower, hedge less. And then over -- in the near term, we're going to hedge a little bit more. And then over time, we're going to hedge a little bit less. And so obviously, with the strength of the balance sheet that we have, we don't have a need to protect the way that others might need to protect if they have higher leverage. So we're in a really great position there. But we think that it is just prudent to have the discipline on the front end to say if oil is moving up, leaning in and when it's moving down lean out. So it prevents you from times like where like when we entered the year and oil was $57 and it seemed to be sort of $57 to $60 flat for ever to not go later in a bunch of hedges and then to bet that somehow like a conflict like we're living in sort of today would last forever as well. So we just have a disciplined hedge program that's instructed both by our balance sheet as well as just trying not to speculate on where oil price is trading.

Oliver Wong

And a question for Dave.

Darrin Henke

Oliver, we can't hear you here. And I think it sounds like everybody else is going to hear us fine. So it's probably best if we just try to catch up with you offline.

Operator

Your next question comes from John Abbott from Wolfe Research.

John Abbott

A couple of quick ones for us. I want to go back to the non-op here. So you talked about the -- I mean if you look at your overall production that you have currently, how much of that is non-op, approximately?

Darrin Henke

Yes, it's probably in the 10%, 15% neighborhood. .

John Abbott

All right. That's helpful. And then the second question is going to be on chemicals. You'll give us the update in February about what you may proceed with what treatments are you doing right now that seem to hold the most promise as you sort of look out there? And what are you waiting for in terms of data? You've been doing this for a little bit of time? How much data do you actually need to sort of make the decision to go forward?

Michael Lou

Yes. So we pumped a number of chemical treatments, and we talk about it on Page 7 in our deck. -- be it asset jobs and solvents, surfactants combination treatments. And we've -- on the production side, we've done hundreds of these type of jobs, and we're evaluating the productivity and evaluations, which one will give us the best ultimate returns on the dollars invested.

On the completion side, while we haven't pumped any chemicals as part of our completion jobs to date, we have been testing several chemicals in a lab situation and likely will result in pumping chemical jobs on completion in 2027. It's -- we're still evaluating that. But anyways, testing it in the lab. And of course, we're always studying what our competitors are doing, not only in the Bakken, but in the Permian, the Eagle Ford, et cetera. as well. So we'll definitely be early adopters as we continue to evaluate it on the completion side and having great results on the production side.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Geoff Jay from Daniel Energy Partners.

Geoff Jay

This is a really quick 1 for me. You mentioned that frac crews were tight. I'm wondering what you're seeing on the service inflation side kind of apart from fuel pass-throughs and consumables?

Michael Lou

Yes. On average, like we mentioned earlier, kind of in the low to mid-single digits is what we've seen so far this year. Some things are more, some things are less, but it's kind of where it's shaking out at this time. And not certain where 27 will be at this time, but I think it's really going to be a function of commodity price and activity levels. .

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call over to Michael Lou, CEO, for closing remarks.

Michael Lou

Thanks, Julie. Once again, I'm honored to lead Chord and build on the strong foundation we've established and look forward to working with our employees, communities and other stakeholders to build on that progress. We have an incredibly talented team committed to executing our strategy and creating long-term value for our shareholders. Continuous improvement will remain a core objective. Additionally, Chord will maintain capital discipline while driving free cash flow per share and preserving a strong balance sheet. Thank you for your continued interest in Chord and for joining us this morning. We look forward to speaking to many of you in the coming weeks. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.