การแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ GATX: กำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) เพิ่มขึ้น และคาดการณ์ผลประกอบการปรับขึ้นสูงกว่า 10.30 ดอลลาร์

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• GATX รายงานกำไรต่อหุ้นปรับลด (Diluted EPS) ในไตรมาส 3/2026 ที่ 2.92 ดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้นจาก 2.25 ดอลลาร์ในไตรมาส 3/2025 ทั้งนี้ กำไรต่อหุ้นปรับลดในช่วง 9 เดือนแรกเพิ่มขึ้นสู่ระดับ 8.11 ดอลลาร์ จาก 6.46 ดอลลาร์
• ขณะนี้ผู้บริหารคาดว่ากำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) ตลอดปี 2026 จะสูงกว่ากรอบบนของคาดการณ์เดิมที่ 9.90-10.30 ดอลลาร์เล็กน้อย หากไม่รวมการปรับปรุงภาษีและรายการอื่น ๆ
• อัตราการใช้งานกลุ่ม Rail North America เพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 98.4% อัตราความสำเร็จในการต่อสัญญาอยู่ที่ 86.1% ขณะที่ดัชนีราคาค่าเช่า (Lease Price Index) บันทึกการเปลี่ยนแปลงของอัตราการต่อสัญญาเป็นบวก 12.4% โดยมีระยะเวลาต่อสัญญาเฉลี่ย 52 เดือน
• กลุ่ม Rail North America สร้างกำไรสุทธิจากการจำหน่ายสินทรัพย์ 50.3 ล้านดอลลาร์ในไตรมาส 3 และ 167.8 ล้านดอลลาร์นับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน ผู้บริหารคาดว่ากำไรตลอดทั้งปีจะสูงกว่าเป้าหมายเดิมที่ 200 ล้านดอลลาร์เล็กน้อย
• การรวมสินทรัพย์รถไฟของ Wells Fargo กำลังดำเนินไปตามแผนที่วางไว้ กิจกรรมการเข้าซื้อกิจการและการบริหารจัดการที่เกี่ยวข้องส่งผลให้กำไรต่อหุ้นปรับลดเพิ่มขึ้นประมาณ 0.50 ดอลลาร์นับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน ทำให้ GATX มีแนวโน้มที่จะทำผลงานได้สูงกว่าที่คาดการณ์ไว้เดิมที่ 0.20-0.30 ดอลลาร์ประมาณสองเท่า
• GATX ซื้อหุ้นคืนประมาณ 442,000 หุ้น คิดเป็นมูลค่า 78.5 ล้านดอลลาร์ในระหว่างไตรมาส ส่งผลให้การซื้อหุ้นคืนนับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบันเกินกว่า 732,000 หุ้น คิดเป็นมูลค่าประมาณ 130 ล้านดอลลาร์

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 และช่วง 9 เดือนแรกของปี 2025 รวมผลกระทบเชิงบวกสุทธิ 0.15 ดอลลาร์ต่อหุ้นปรับลดจากการปรับปรุงภาษีและรายการอื่น ๆ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

Rail North America

สภาวะตลาดยังคงเอื้ออำนวย โดยได้รับปัจจัยหนุนจากพลวัตของอุปสงค์-อุปทานและความสนใจอย่างแข็งแกร่งในสินทรัพย์กลุ่มตู้รถไฟที่มีอยู่ อัตราการใช้งานตู้รถไฟเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 98.4% ซึ่งได้รับการสนับสนุนจากการนำตู้รถไฟที่ว่างอยู่จากพอร์ตเดิมของ Wells Fargo ไปใช้งานได้สำเร็จ อย่างไรก็ตาม ตู้รถไฟบรรทุกสินค้าแห้งเทกองขนาดเล็ก (Small-cube covered hopper cars) ที่ให้บริการในตลาดทรายังคงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันอัตราการใช้งาน

อัตราความสำเร็จในการต่อสัญญาแตะระดับ 86.1% ดัชนีราคาค่าเช่าเปิดเผยให้เห็นการเปลี่ยนแปลงของอัตราการต่อสัญญาเป็นบวก 12.4% โดยมีระยะเวลาต่อสัญญาเฉลี่ย 52 เดือน ผู้บริหารระบุว่าราคาเมื่อเทียบกับไตรมาสก่อนหน้า (Sequential pricing) ทรงตัวถึงสูงขึ้นเล็กน้อยในตู้รถไฟส่วนใหญ่ แม้ว่า LPI ที่รายงานจะได้รับผลกระทบจากการรวมพอร์ตตู้รถไฟเดิมของ Wells Fargo สัดส่วนของพอร์ตสินทรัพย์ และตู้รถไฟขนทรายก็ตาม

GATX ได้ส่งมอบตู้รถไฟไปแล้วประมาณ 10,300 คันภายใต้ข้อตกลงการจัดหา Trinity ปี 2022 โดยกำหนดการส่งมอบที่เร็วที่สุดที่มีอยู่คือในไตรมาส 2/2027

อุปสงค์ในตลาดรองยังคงแข็งแกร่ง ผู้บริหารอธิบายว่ามีฐานผู้ซื้อที่กว้างขวางประมาณ 25 ถึง 30 สถาบัน นำโดยผู้ให้เช่ารายอื่นเป็นหลัก GATX คาดว่ากำไรจากการจำหน่ายสินทรัพย์ของ Rail North America จะจบลงสูงกว่าเป้าหมายเดิมตลอดทั้งปีที่ 200 ล้านดอลลาร์เล็กน้อย

นอกจากนี้ บริษัทฯ ยังได้รับประโยชน์จากค่าธรรมเนียมการบริหารจัดการที่สูงขึ้นซึ่งเกี่ยวโยงกับการขายสินทรัพย์จากพอร์ตการเช่าระยะยาวที่ Brookfield เป็นเจ้าของทั้งหมด โดยค่าธรรมเนียมเหล่านี้เพิ่มขึ้นจากประมาณ 2.8 ล้านดอลลาร์ในแต่ละไตรมาสของสองไตรมาสแรก เป็นเกือบ 15 ล้านดอลลาร์ในไตรมาส 3 ทั้งนี้ Brookfield ยังคงเป็นผู้ทำการตัดสินใจขั้นสุดท้ายเกี่ยวกับจังหวะเวลาและการเลือกขายสินทรัพย์

ค่าใช้จ่ายในการบำรุงรักษาขั้นต้นเมื่อปรับเป็นรายปีอยู่ที่ประมาณ 502 ล้าน-503 ล้านดอลลาร์ ซึ่งสอดคล้องอย่างกว้าง ๆ กับความคาดหวังตลอดทั้งปีของบริษัทฯ ที่ประมาณ 500 ล้านดอลลาร์ การประหยัดค่าใช้จ่ายในปัจจุบันส่วนใหญ่มาจากการปรับปรุงการบริหารจัดการบำรุงรักษาโดยบุคคลที่สาม ทั้งนี้ GATX ยังไม่ได้นำงานบำรุงรักษาของกิจการร่วมค้าเข้ามาทำในโรงงานของตนเอง แต่กำลังเตรียมพร้อมสำหรับการดึงงานกลับมาทำเอง (Insourcing) ในระดับเล็กน้อยระหว่างปี 2027 ตามด้วยการเพิ่มขึ้นอย่างค่อยเป็นค่อยไป

Rail International

อัตราการใช้งานของ GATX Rail Europe ปรับตัวดีขึ้นเป็น 96.1% ณ สิ้นไตรมาส ขณะที่อัตราค่าเช่าเมื่อต่อสัญญาเพิ่มขึ้นในตู้รถไฟหลายประเภท ขณะเดียวกัน ผลการดำเนินงานเมื่อเทียบปีต่อปี (YoY) ยังได้รับประโยชน์จากการเติบโตของกลุ่มตู้รถไฟหลังจากการเข้าซื้อกิจการ DB Cargo รวมถึงผลกระทบเชิงบวกจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยนเงินตราต่างประเทศ

ในอินเดีย GATX ได้ขยายกลุ่มตู้รถไฟพร้อมกับรักษาอัตราการใช้งานได้เต็มสัดส่วน ผู้บริหารยังคงเห็นโอกาสในการลงทุนและการเติบโตทั่วทั้ง Rail International แม้ว่าทีมงานในยุโรปจะดำเนินงานอยู่ภายใต้สภาวะแวดล้อมทางเศรษฐกิจที่ท้าทายก็ตาม

Engine Leasing

ธุรกิจ Engine Leasing ส่งผลงานที่แข็งแกร่งเนื่องจากกิจกรรมการเดินทางทางอากาศทั่วโลกช่วยสนับสนุนอัตราการใช้งานและอัตราค่าเช่า ทั้งนี้ ปริมาณการลงทุนในกิจการร่วมค้า RRPF เข้าใกล้ระดับ 1 พันล้านดอลลาร์นับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน

กำไรของ RRPF ยังคงมีความผันผวนจากการขายสินทรัพย์ โดยผู้บริหารระบุว่าสัดส่วนกำไรประกอบด้วยรายได้จากการดำเนินงานประมาณสองในสาม และรายได้จากการต่อยอดการตลาด (Remarketing income) ประมาณหนึ่งในสาม ทั้งในไตรมาส 3 และช่วงนับตั้งแต่ต้นปีจนถึงปัจจุบัน

ผู้บริหารคาดว่าธุรกิจ Engine Leasing จะทำผลงานได้ดีกว่าคาดการณ์ ณ ต้นปี การปรับตัวดีขึ้นนี้ผูกอยู่กับพอร์ตเครื่องบิน/เครื่องยนต์ที่ GATX เป็นเจ้าของทั้งหมดเป็นหลัก รวมถึงการรับรู้สำรองการบำรุงรักษาที่บันทึกไว้ในไตรมาส 2 ไม่ใช่จากกิจการร่วมค้า RRPF

แนวทางของฝ่ายบริหาร

ขณะนี้ GATX คาดว่ากำไรต่อหุ้นปรับลดในปี 2026 จะสูงกว่ากรอบบนของคาดการณ์เดิมที่ 9.90-10.30 ดอลลาร์เล็กน้อย ทั้งนี้ แนวโน้มดังกล่าวยังไม่รวมการปรับปรุงภาษีและรายการอื่น ๆ

ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการปรับทบทวนนี้มีสาเหตุหลักมาจากความแข็งแกร่งอย่างต่อเนื่องในตลาดตู้รถไฟมือสอง และค่าธรรมเนียมที่สูงกว่าคาดจากการบริหารพอร์ตการเช่าระยะยาวของ Brookfield บริษัทฯ ไม่ได้ระบุจำนวนเงินส่วนที่เกิน 10.30 ดอลลาร์อย่างเป็นตัวเลข เนื่องจากปัจจัยขับเคลื่อนทั้งสองประการขึ้นอยู่กับจังหวะเวลาของการทำธุรกรรมและอาจไม่สม่ำเสมอกันในแต่ละไตรมาส

บริษัทฯ คาดว่ากิจกรรมการลงทุนและการบริหารจัดการเกี่ยวกับการเข้าซื้อกิจการที่ผูกกับสินทรัพย์รถไฟของ Wells Fargo จะสร้างผลตอบแทนประมาณสองเท่าของประมาณการ EPS เดิมที่ 0.20-0.30 ดอลลาร์ โดยมีส่วนช่วยสนับสนุนประมาณ 0.50 ดอลลาร์ต่อหุ้นปรับลดในช่วง 9 เดือนแรก

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

• กำไรจากการจำหน่ายตู้รถไฟและค่าธรรมเนียมการบริหารจัดการของ Brookfield ขับเคลื่อนโดยการทำธุรกรรม และอาจผันผวนขึ้นอยู่กับแผนเงินทุนของผู้ซื้อ กำหนดการปิดดีล และการตัดสินใจขายของ Brookfield
• ตู้รถไฟบรรทุกสินค้าแห้งเทกองขนาดเล็กที่ให้บริการในตลาดทรายังคงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันต่ออัตราการใช้งานและราคา
• Rail Europe ยังคงเผชิญกับสภาวะแวดล้อมทางเศรษฐกิจที่ท้าทาย
• สภาวะภาษีศุลกากรสำหรับตู้รถไฟบรรทุกของเหลว (Tank cars) ยังคงไม่แน่นอน ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าตู้รถไฟบรรทุกสินค้าทั่วไปไม่ได้ถูกจัดเก็บภาษีในปัจจุบัน ขณะที่ภาษีตู้รถไฟบรรทุกของเหลวที่อาจเกิดขึ้นในอนาคตอาจเพิ่มต้นทุนอุปกรณ์ใหม่
• หนี้สินของ GATX น้อยกว่า 10% เป็นอัตราดอกเบี้ยลอยตัว ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงของอัตราดอกเบี้ยในระยะสั้นไม่ใช่ปัจจัยขับเคลื่อนการดำเนินงานที่สำคัญ เนื่องจากบริษัทฯ ใช้เงินทุนอัตราดอกเบี้ยคงที่ระยะยาวเป็นหลัก เมื่อเวลาผ่านไป ต้นทุนเงินทุนที่สูงขึ้นและอัตราค่าเช่าคาดว่าจะมีความสัมพันธ์สอดคล้องกัน

ไฮไลต์ช่วงถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

ดัชนีราคาค่าเช่า: ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่า LPI ที่ 12.4% สะท้อนถึงการทยอยรวมกลุ่มตู้รถไฟเดิมของ Wells Fargo สัดส่วนพอร์ตสินทรัพย์ และผลกระทบอย่างต่อเนื่องจากตู้รถไฟขนทราย บริษัทฯ ประเมินว่าส่วนต่างรายได้ต่อปีระหว่าง LPI ที่ 12% และ 17% จะน้อยกว่า 5 ล้านดอลลาร์ เมื่อเทียบกับฐานรายได้ประมาณ 2.4 พันล้านดอลลาร์ แม้ว่าผลกระทบจะสะสมตามกาลเวลาก็ตาม

อุปสงค์ในตลาดรอง: GATX ยังคงเห็นสภาพคล่องที่แข็งแกร่ง โดยมีผู้ให้เช่าตู้รถไฟรายอื่นเป็นกลุ่มผู้ซื้อหลัก ฝ่ายบริหารไม่คาดว่าโอกาสในตลาดจะอ่อนตัวลงในเร็ว ๆ นี้ หากไม่มีการหยุดชะงักทางเศรษฐกิจมหภาคในวงกว้าง

การรวมธุรกิจกับ Wells Fargo: กลุ่มตู้รถไฟที่เปิดดำเนินการอยู่ซึ่งได้มานั้น กำลังได้รับการบริหารจัดการร่วมกับพอร์ตเดิมของ GATX แทนที่จะแยกเป็นธุรกิจต่างหาก ทั้งนี้ ประโยชน์ด้านการบำรุงรักษาในระยะสั้นมาจากการปรับปรุงการบริหารจัดการผู้ขายภายนอก (Third-party vendors) โดยงานบำรุงรักษาภายในองค์กรในระดับจำกัดอาจเริ่มขึ้นในปี 2027

การจัดสรรเงินทุน: ฝ่ายบริหารย้ำอีกครั้งว่าการลงทุนที่สร้างมูลค่าเพิ่ม (Accretive investment) ยังคงเป็นลำดับความสำคัญแรก ตามมาด้วยการรักษาอัตราส่วนหนี้สินและตัวชี้วัดอันดับความน่าเชื่อถือระดับที่น่าลงทุน (Investment-grade) ส่วนทุนส่วนเกินจะถูกส่งคืนผ่านเงินปันผลและการซื้อหุ้นคืนเมื่อมีความเหมาะสม

ก๊าซธรรมชาติและตู้รถไฟขนส่ง LNG: ฝ่ายบริหารระบุว่าก๊าซธรรมชาติขนส่งผ่านท่อเป็นหลัก และตู้รถไฟขนส่ง LNG ยังคงหาได้ยากและมีราคาสูง การสร้างรายได้ในอนาคตจากตลาดนี้ยังถือเป็นการคาดการณ์ที่ไม่แน่นอน

บันทึกการประชุมผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the GATX 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Shari Hellerman, Head of Investor Relations. Shari, please go ahead.

Shari Hellerman

Thank you, Holly. Good morning, and thank you for joining GATX's 2026 third quarter earnings call.

I'm joined today by Bob Lyons, President and Chief Executive Officer; Tom Ellman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer; and Paul Titterton, Executive Vice President and President of Rail North America.

As a reminder, some of the information you'll hear during our discussion today will consist of forward-looking statements. Actual results or trends could differ materially from those statements or forecasts. For more information, please refer to the risk factors included in our earnings release and those discussed in GATX's Form 10-K for 2025 and our other filings with the SEC.

GATX assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. Earlier today, GATX reported 2026 third quarter diluted earnings per share of $2.92 compared to $2.25 in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, GATX delivered diluted earnings per share of $8.11 compared to $6.46 for the same period in 2025. The 2025 third quarter and year-to-date results include a net positive impact of $0.15 per diluted share from tax adjustments and other items. These items are detailed in the supplemental information section of our earnings release.

I'll briefly address each of our business segments. After that, we'll open the call up for questions. At Rail North America, market conditions remain positive. Leasing fundamentals benefited from a favorable supply-demand environment and strong interest in existing fleet assets. These conditions continue to support attractive renewal economics and secondary market opportunities across the fleet.

The renewal success rate was strong at 86.1% and fleet utilization increased to 98.4% at quarter end. The renewal rate change of GATX's Lease Price Index was positive 12.4% with an average renewal term of 52 months. We continue to successfully place new railcars under our committed supply agreement with a diverse customer base. We've placed about 10,300 railcars under our 2022 Trinity supply agreement.

Our earliest available scheduled delivery under this agreement is in the second quarter of 2027. Demand for our railcars in the secondary market remained exceptionally strong during the quarter. Net gains on asset dispositions in Rail North America were $50.3 million in the quarter and $167.8 million year-to-date.

Additionally, we continue to realize benefits from the acquisition of Wells Fargo's rail assets. Integration efforts have progressed well, and we are leveraging GATX's scale, customer relationships and portfolio management capabilities across the larger fleet. We also benefited from higher management fee income during the quarter, driven in part by asset sale activity within the Brookfield-owned portfolio.

Turning to Rail International. Performance was solid in the quarter. GATX Rail Europe's fleet utilization improved to 96.1% at quarter end, and we continued pushing up renewal lease rates for various car types. In India, we further expanded the fleet during the quarter while maintaining full utilization. Across Rail International, we continue to see attractive opportunities for investment and growth. Engine Leasing delivered excellent results during the quarter.

Portfolio performance remains strong as healthy global air travel activity continue to support high utilization and attractive lease rates. At RRPF, we continue to deploy capital into attractive opportunities with investment volume at the joint venture approaching $1 billion year-to-date. During the quarter, GATX repurchased approximately 442,000 shares for $78.5 million.

Year-to-date, we've repurchased more than 732,000 shares for approximately $130 million. Finally, we now expect 2026 full year earnings to modestly exceed the upper end of our previously announced guidance range of $9.90 to $10.30 per diluted share. This guidance excludes any impact from tax adjustments and other items.

And that concludes our prepared remarks. I'll hand it back to the operator so we can open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ben Mohr with Citi.

ช่วงถาม-ตอบ

Benjamin Mohr Mok

I wanted just to maybe start off asking about the LPI. It looks like it's softer than expected at the 12.4%. You've not yet lapped the 2Q hopper impact and yet it stepped down from 2Q. So just wanted to see if that was the only driver or if there were other drivers on top of the 2Q hopper impact that won't get lapped until 2Q of next year. And your full year LPI target, I think to date has been the lower end of your previously guided high teens to low teens range for '26. So just wanted to see your outlook on that as well, please.

Paul Titterton

Ben, this is Paul speaking. Happy to answer that question. I think Bob will probably chime in as well. But broadly speaking, I think it's important to understand with our LPI, it's done on a trailing 12-month basis. And so one thing that's happening over the course of this year is each successive quarter is incorporating another quarter of GABX. So by the end of this year, we'll have GABX fully incorporated. I should say, the former Wells Fargo fleet, which is known as GABX.

But as well, I would say you have that going on, you have mix and then you do have the continued impact of the sand cars. So really, all 3 of those things are impacting the LPI. I will say broadly, when we think about sequential pricing in the fleet, we are actually seeing across most of the fleet flat to slightly up sequential pricing. So certainly, the pricing climate for our fleet overall is, I would say, becoming increasingly favorable, although the LPI, as you pointed out, has been lower for the reasons I just described.

Robert Lyons

Ben, it's Bob. Thank you for the question. And I just wanted to add regarding the LPI, just doing a little back-of-the-envelope math, the difference between, call it, a 12% LPI and a 17% LPI in a given year is less than $5 million of revenue on an annual basis, and that's off our revenue base of about $2.4 billion. So when you really kind of pencil out the impact of the LPI, the variance in any given year, it's -- the impact on our revenue line is de minimis. Now obviously, that accumulates over time and gives you a different answer. But in the present year or in '27, for example, it's not that material.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Great. My next question then is on the -- what you've mentioned, the higher management fee in the quarter on the higher asset sale activity in the Brookfield-owned portfolio for Rail North America. And it looks like that's tied to North America remarketing that's also been very strong in 3Q. So maybe sort of a multipoint question. Are you still holding your $200 million target for Rail North America remarketing for '26? And if so, should we expect kind of the positive lumpiness in 3Q to step down to a meaningful step down in 4Q and then that should drive a lower management fee, sort of your other revenue in Rail North America for 4Q as well?

Thomas Ellman

Yes, Ben. So I'll try to take both parts of those questions. One, you alluded to it in your question, but just so that everyone is totally clear, GATX earns 2 different types of management fees related to the Wells Fargo Rail transaction. First, we earn a fee, and this is what you were referring to, for managing the long-term lease portfolio, which is wholly owned by Brookfield.

Second, we earn a fee for managing the operating lease portfolio joint venture with Brookfield. And today, we own 33.5% of that JV. So as you noted, the first fee is what's up sequentially this quarter. So for the first 2 quarters, we earned about $2.8 million in fees in each quarter. And this quarter, it was almost $15 million, so a meaningful increase. And that increase was driven by the fact that under certain conditions, GATX earns additional fees for asset sales out of that portfolio.

Now of course, the decision on whether -- what to sell and when to sell are ultimately made by Brookfield, but GATX gets paid a fee for making recommendations and executing on those sales. So that's part of the increase. Related, but separately, in our own business, the secondary market continues to be strong. And we do expect to exceed slightly the $200 million that we mentioned at the beginning of the year for asset dispositions. As we've discussed many times, calling the exact timing on when those sales close is challenging, but we certainly do expect directionally to do a bit better than we originally anticipated.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Wonderful. My last question is looking out longer term, there's been some investor interest on a longer-term growing narrative for nat gas for data centers where behind-the-meter prime power generators would be driven more by nat gas turbines or reciprocating engines fueled by nat gas, given there's not enough grid to go around for all the data center build. I wanted to ask you, from your view, how much of this could be an opportunity for you? Are your tank cars suited to moving this expansion in nat gas presumably as LNG?

Paul Titterton

Yes. So this is Paul speaking, Ben. It's a good question. So for the most part, nat gas moves by pipeline in North America and really throughout the world. LNG tank cars are today quite rare and are extraordinarily expensive to construct. There are certainly folks talking about LNG by rail, but that's not a market in which we play today, and it's not clear under what conditions we might play. So I would say any contribution to our business from that would be speculative at this point.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrzej Tomczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Just curious to start off on the guide for modestly exceeding the top end of the $9.90 to $10.30 earnings range for this year. Could you help maybe frame up how you guys are thinking about what modest means? And if there's any drivers that could cause you to exceed your expectations for modestly beating the top end? I know it seemed like the third quarter from our perspective was a pretty healthy beat versus expectations. So just trying to grasp sort of the strength versus your expectations here heading into the fourth quarter.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. Thanks for the question, Andrzej. So I'll first kind of recap what's happened so far and then our decision to take -- to revise the guidance to modestly exceeding the top end of the range. So for the first 9 months of the year, most things were generally in line with our expectations coming into the year. Despite economic and geopolitical uncertainty, the favorable supply-demand dynamics continued to drive positive results for Rail North America.

And the GATX Rail Europe team continued to successfully navigate a challenging economic environment. Similarly, we had strong Engine Leasing results and the RRPF JV with Rolls-Royce performed well. Really 2 factors drove our decision to take -- to revise our guidance description for the third quarter. First, as talked about on the last question, the secondary market remains strong. And second, as talked about on the last question, we earned more for managing the long-term lease portfolio that Brookfield owns than we expected to. So both of those reasons are driven by factors that have some lumpiness to them. And so quantifying the exact amount that we might exceed the high end of the range is going to be dependent on the timing of future opportunities there, which is why we left it where we did.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Andrzej, it's Bob. I'd also add, too, with remarketing income, it gets a little bit more challenging to call that precisely in the fourth quarter because the buyer universe, they're approaching their year-end as we are, but they may have different capital allocations and that they can extend this year or they want to extend it in the first quarter. So we have to work with those potential buyers and at times, try to recognize what their needs are and what their capital plans are. So it gets a little bit more difficult to predict in the fourth quarter.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. I was curious on just the repricing runway of the acquired assets following the Wells Fargo integration. If you're able to share maybe what percent of the acquired operating fleet has now repriced to the current market levels? How much is left to price or maybe sell in the secondary markets? And how does the embedded renewal pricing delta on that specific pool of cars compared to legacy GATX equipment?

Robert Lyons

Yes, I'll start first, Andrzej, by just saying the average term in the portfolio that we purchased was very similar to our own. So we're going to renew the same amount of cars out of the joint venture that GATX would renew in a given year, 18,000 to 20,000 or somewhere in that range. So there's no significant lumpiness to how that portfolio will renew.

We haven't disclosed or broken out the data with regards to the difference in their embedded lease rate and rollover versus ours. And quite frankly, we're managing the entire business as one. Our sales team doesn't differentiate at all between a GATX wholly owned car and a joint venture car because keep in mind also, over time, they'll become wholly owned cars that we're buying that -- we'll likely buy that joint venture down over time. So we're not looking at it as 2 discrete fleets. And certainly, that will be even more the case going forward.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Understood. And wanted to just touch, while we're talking on Wells Fargo, the maintenance expense within North America, I think seemed to dip down sequentially. Last year, I think it went up 2Q to 3Q. Could you just speak to how the synergies are tracking on the Wells Fargo integration and maybe any specifics on the maintenance runway as well?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So really, the story there is very consistent with what we've talked about over the last couple of quarters. So in the near term, we knew that we would be in a position to rationalize the third-party maintenance that's being provided and to challenge the providers in a way that as an owner of maintenance facilities ourselves, we can do that Wells Fargo couldn't. And we're seeing improvement in that area and continue to expect to see that going forward. So the run rate that we've seen so far this year, you would expect to continue for the full year.

Robert Lyons

Yes. And I think if you took our gross maintenance expense year-to-date and annualized it, you come up with $502 million or $503 million. And our guide for the year back in January was about $500 million. So there are some puts and takes between the wholly owned -- our legacy portfolio and the joint venture cars, but we're coming in right in line with what we expected, and we had baked into that some of those synergies already that we're realizing.

Andrzej Tomczyk

And maybe just hitting a little bit on the secondary market activity within rail leasing, and it does seem like that's potentially driving the higher end of the range guidance as well or above the higher end of the range. That's been an area of strength this year and over the recent years. I'm just curious if you could share sort of the types of the profiles of buyers, whether that's institutional funds, shippers or competing lessors that are providing liquidity there. And then I know it's probably a little early, but any indication on what we should anticipate for the pace of gains into 2027 as well? That would be super helpful.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Andrzej, good question. And we continue to see a really wide buyer universe. The breadth and depth is quite strong. If we're putting a book out in the marketplace or one of our competing lessors is doing the same, there's a good list of 25, 30 different types of institutions.

Other lessors is really the primary source. We occasionally will sell cars back to shippers that happens at times, but it's primarily that lessor universe, and it continues to be extremely robust. One thing playing into that is, as we've talked about is the supply dynamic in the marketplace right now. There's not a lot of new cars on order. I think the expectation for this year is quite low from a cyclical standpoint in terms of new car orders.

So if you're an existing lessor with an established base of cars and you're looking to add, you're going to do it in the secondary market. And so we see ample opportunity and really, we don't see that abating anytime soon, absent some bigger macro factor.

Andrzej Tomczyk

Very helpful. And maybe just to close off for me and sort of relatedly as well. I wanted to touch on the tariffs and how that's impacting buyers' decisions as well. I think the tariffs, the idea is that they could elevate the new build replacement economics and the cost of a new car. So are buyers incrementally using that to tap the secondary market as well? Is that causing them to sort of delay new car orders as well? And do you see this dynamic sort of creating a floor for asset values here?

Paul Titterton

So Andrzej, this is Paul speaking. Certainly. This is Paul speaking. And just to address that, I think it's worth a little context here. So with respect to tariffs on new railcars right now, the only railcars that are technically subject to tariffs are tank cars.

So freight cars, which constitute the majority of the new car market are not currently subject to any tariffs. And the tariff situation is fluid in the sense that there are Section 232 tariffs that have been imposed but not enforced, and then there are antidumping tariffs that are under discussion right now for tank cars. So it's a very fluid situation here right now.

What I would say is, obviously, should tariffs be imposed, it would increase the cost of acquisition of tank cars. But GATX is actually extremely well hedged because, of course, it's one of the largest owners of an installed fleet of tank cars, effectively, any increase in the cost to replace that fleet will improve the value of our installed fleet, and that should manifest through lease rates. So it's an evolving situation, but I think that gives you a sense of where we are right now.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brendan McCarthy with Sidoti.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

I wanted to start off on the Rail North America utilization rate, up about 40 basis points sequentially. I think we talked about the Wells portfolio having utilization of under 98%, maybe in the 97% range at acquisition date. I guess, are you seeing a benefit from better placement of cars or maybe it's remarketing activity? And I guess, do you expect that utilization rate to continue to grind up back towards that 99% level?

Paul Titterton

So this is Paul speaking, and thank you for the question. Yes, we've had success placing idle cars out of the former Wells Fargo portfolio that's in the joint venture. And really, that's what's driving the improved utilization performance. And really, what I would say is there aren't necessarily any specific markets within any specific car types. It's really been broad-based success with our team placing cars, and we would expect that success to continue. We'll still have the headwinds from the small cube covered hopper fleet serving the sand market. So that will continue to be something of a utilization headwind.

But outside of -- and I will say we've had good success even placing small cubes. But outside of the small cube market, it's been very positive and really trending, I would say, at least as well as we expected coming into this.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Got it. And on the remarketing income side, about $168 million year-to-date. Is the expectation for any potential outperformance above that $200 million threshold? I guess, do you expect any outperformance to come from the legacy side of the fleet? Or is the Wells side potentially going to go above that $70 million number?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So obviously, as Bob mentioned earlier, we really try to think of this as a single portfolio, and that's how we operate the business. But just based on the numbers that you've seen year-to-date, it's more likely that the outperformance would be legacy cars as opposed to the JV cars.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Okay. Understood. And I think last quarter, you mentioned the Wells, the JV expected to contribute maybe double the original $0.20 to $0.30 EPS expectation for the year. Is that still a reasonable expectation for you?

Thomas Ellman

It is. And really, it's driven by the -- primarily by what we talked about earlier in the call, which is the fees that are earned on the portfolio that Brookfield owns.

Brendan Michael McCarthy

Okay. Understood. And just last question on capital allocation. It looks like share buybacks were more outsized in the quarter. Obviously, leverage has remained in place and you've continued to -- you exercised, I think, one of the joint venture options. I guess how can we think about the buyback activity going forward? Is it going to be perhaps a larger source of capital going forward?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So what I'll do there is just reiterate the way we think about capital allocation period. So we've mentioned many times, first and foremost, we really seek to make economically accretive investment. Right with that, we're very cognizant of the leverage and other credit metrics. You mentioned leverage staying even and to maintain our strong investment-grade credit rating. And then we return excess capital to shareholders. We regularly do that via the dividend.

And at times, we supplement that with stock buyback. And really, what's happened this year is despite a really strong investment year outside of the Wells Fargo Rail acquisition, we still expect to do about $1 billion of investment, but that is a little bit lower than what you've seen in the last couple of years. So it's not surprising you'd see a little bit more in the stock buyback side.

Robert Lyons

Yes, Brendan, it's Bob. I'd just add, too. I like to think we remain very disciplined around that capital allocation concept of 3 things. The first being the investment. That's what we believe shareholders invest in GATX for us to do is to put capital to work in assets at accretive economics, keep the balance sheet in good shape, keep leverage in good shape and then return excess. So we revisit that concept constantly here at GATX.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Justin Bergner with Gabelli Funds.

Justin Bergner

A couple of clarification questions. You mentioned the $0.20 to $0.30 JV contribution. Is that inclusive of now the extra benefit from managing the Brookfield assets? Or would that extra benefit be on top of the $0.20 to $0.30?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. Great clarification, Justin. Thank you. So all along, we've been talking about the totality of the investment activity and -- investment and related activity with that acquisition. So it includes the performance of the JV, the management fees earned from the JV, the incremental SG&A that we have in order to provide those services and the fees earned from the Brookfield wholly owned portfolio. So it's all of that together.

Robert Lyons

Yes. And Justin, the $0.20 to $0.30 is what we thought coming into the year. Back in July, we said it would be double that, and we're very confident in that level.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. And year-to-date, it's been in the range of $0.50. So we're well on the way.

Justin Bergner

Year-to-date, it's already at $0.50. Okay. Got it. So it was more consistent with the doubling you spoke about in July. Okay. That's very helpful.

Robert Lyons

Yes. Correct.

Justin Bergner

And then just on the benefit from helping Brookfield sell their fully owned cars, I assume that, that's in that other revenue category of Rail North America. And are there any costs associated with it? Or is it mostly drop-through to the bottom line, that revenue?

Thomas Ellman

So there would be, but they're a little difficult to tease out. It would be part of the incremental SG&A. So if you look at what we expected coming into the year, we said SG&A would be up about $30 million on a normalized basis versus a year ago. And we said the vast majority of that would be related to the Wells Fargo Rail acquisition and related activity.

So all of that together is the cost side shows up in SG&A. Everything you see in that other revenue line related to the management fee activity is just the revenue side. It's not net of anything.

Robert Lyons

And that SG&A is coming in about right where we thought it would come in. So we're managing -- the team is managing that quite well.

Justin Bergner

Okay. So not too much additional cost to generate that extra revenue for managing the Brookfield sales. It seems like.

Thomas Ellman

Yes, Justin, just to be sure you understand that, the incremental SG&A we're talking about is mostly related to the operating lease JV that we have with Brookfield, where we're at 33.5% ownership. Yes, there is some additional incremental SG&A related to the long-term lease portfolio, but that would be relatively small.

Justin Bergner

Okay. And then does that mean that you're now managing a slightly smaller or not -- you're getting management fees on a slightly smaller Brookfield fully owned fleet because you've helped sell a decent amount of cars?

Thomas Ellman

Correct.

Justin Bergner

Okay. Got you. Nice work overall. On the maintenance side, just to clarify, the maintenance benefits that you're seeing near term from the Wells Fargo, those are more about better managing third-party maintenance? Or are you actually starting to in-source some of that maintenance already?

Paul Titterton

So Justin, it's Paul speaking. We have not yet in-sourced any of the joint venture maintenance. As we talked about coming into the year, our shops are really full of our own work, and so there really wasn't much of an opportunity to do that. We are going to be laying the groundwork to be able to take in some of that joint venture work, and we're hoping that at some point, potentially later next year, you'll be able to see some of the benefits of that.

Robert Lyons

When we announced the transaction initially, we said it would probably be a 2- to 3-year period before -- just because of the demand of our own fleet and our shops would likely be 2 to 3 years before we started to even move some of the joint venture cars into the -- into our maintenance network. And so we're really digging in and putting the pieces in place to begin doing that on a modest level in 2027, but the expectation is we'll step that up sequentially after next year.

Justin Bergner

Okay. Great. And maybe lastly, the Rail International performance seemed to improve nicely on a sequential basis. It could just be noise, but is there anything you wanted to highlight there in terms of what's going well or what's progressing as expected?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So in general, we came into the year expecting a challenging economic environment. And indeed, we've seen that. The team has done a really good job -- have done a really good job navigating through that. As we noted in the press release, there's really 2 factors driving the comparison year-over-year.

One is that the fleet has grown, thanks largely to the DB Cargo acquisition that we did last year. And then in addition to that, there is some FX benefit that we've seen.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ben Mohr with Citi.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Yes. I wanted to touch on interest rates as it looks like maybe that's been what's driving some negative sentiment on your shares the last few months and yet your fundamentals remain very strong. Your favorable supply-demand is much more of a meaningful driver in the short term within the year as you've shared in the past. So it seems like that's very much working.

When we look at Fed funds futures, it's showing another 50 bps of hikes likely through the end of 2027. So likely maybe 2 more hikes. I wanted to get your updated views on all of this. Are your fundamentals expected to continue to remain strong? You've got your debt size kind of -- and your leasing portfolio immunized, you're using interest rate swaps to convert the floating to fixed. And then beyond the year, we should see higher interest rates kind of play out as a benefit for you in higher lease rates. So wanted just to kind of get an overall update on your view of the picture on the interest rate headwind that's more sentiment driven whereas your fundamentals remain very strong.

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So Ben, as you know, we certainly take a long-term approach to everything, and that includes the way we finance. Less than 10% of our debt is floating rate. We finance -- a wide variety of ways. But by far, the biggest is accessing the capital markets with 10-year plus debt. So we have long-term debt, mostly fixed. And so the short-term impacts are not particularly meaningful to us because of the way we've structured the portfolio. You alluded to the fact that interest rates increasing can help lease rates. That is absolutely true.

But similarly, that's more of a long-run phenomenon as well. In the short term, it's always supply-demand dynamics that drive the lease rate market by market. But over a long enough period of time, you certainly should expect to see a positive impact on lease rates with increasing interest rates. So at the same time, that cumulative effect could impact GATX from a funding perspective, given the long-term way we fund, you would also see that benefit showing up in the lease rates. So in the near term, both are pretty insulated. In the long term, they are correlated.

Robert Lyons

Yes. As we've always said, as a hard asset owner, and it's the same for any hard asset owner, somewhat of an inflation element is a good thing, and we benefit. We'll take that benefit. It sure, it raises the cost of a new car. But when you own 200,000 installed base, you get the benefit there, far outweighs the increased cost on any incremental cars we're bringing into the fleet. I think between Tom and I and Paul, we've all been here 30 years. I don't think there's any year ever during that period where we thought too much about near-term interest rates. It's not a driver of our business.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Wonderful. And then just one last one from me on the Engine Leasing RRPF JV side. It looks like last quarter, you had a very strong RRPF equity method earnings of roughly $50 million. This quarter, it stepped down to roughly $46 million. And my sense is probably that's more lumpiness than anything else. So I wanted to get your sense on that and what to expect for 4Q in that RRPF of equity method and whether your full year segment profit for Engine Leasing still holds?

Thomas Ellman

Yes. So actually, the quarter-to-quarter variance that you mentioned is pretty stable for that business. Things do tend to move because of the gain on sales. One question we normally get, we didn't this quarter, so I'll just provide it anyways, is the split between operating income and remarketing income in that business. And both for the quarter and year-to-date, it's about 2/3, 1/3, 2/3 on the operating side, 1/3 on the remarketing side. And that's really what drives that variability.

As far as the Engine Leasing segment, we do expect it to outperform beginning of year guidance, consistent with the second quarter where we took guidance up, but it's not being driven by the JV. It's driven primarily by the GATX Engine Leasing wholly owned portfolio. And we talked about the reason for that last quarter and a strong maintenance reserve realization that we saw in the second quarter.

Shari Hellerman

The other thing to call out, Ben, is that in the third quarter of 2025, there was a $10 million of pretax insurance proceeds related to engines in Russia, which we normalized.

Operator

We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Shari for closing remarks.

Robert Lyons

Before Shari closes, I just want to mention one thing. We talk often about how we're economic animals at GATX, and that includes everyone around the table. I also happen to be a lifelong Milwaukee brewer fan. And before I walked in here, somebody offered me $100 every time I offered up a baseball-related phrase on the call. So I just want to finish by saying we are hitting on all cylinders. Our commercial team continues to win by hitting singles and doubles, and everyone on the team is contributing. So by my count, I just made $300. Thank you all for your time.

Shari Hellerman

And I'd like to thank everyone for joining us this morning. Please feel free to reach out to me with any follow-up questions. Have a great day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.