การประชุมผลประกอบการไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 ของ Kirby Corporation (KEX): EPS เพิ่มขึ้น 27%, ปรับกรอบประมาณการแคบลง

Kirby Corporation (NYSE: KEX) รายงานกำไรต่อหุ้นสถิติสูงสุดในไตรมาสที่ 3 ปี 2026 ที่ 2.09 ดอลลาร์ เพิ่มขึ้น 27% เมื่อเทียบรายปี โดยอัตราการใช้ประโยชน์เรือขนส่งทางน้ำและราคาที่แข็งแกร่ง ร่วมกับอุปสงค์ที่เพิ่มขึ้นสำหรับการผลิตไฟฟ้าหลังมิเตอร์ ช่วยสนับสนุนการเติบโตทั้งสองกลุ่มธุรกิจ

ประเด็นสำคัญ

• กำไรต่อหุ้น (EPS) ไตรมาส 3 ปี 2026 เพิ่มขึ้น 27% เมื่อเทียบรายปี ทำสถิติสูงสุดใหม่ที่ 2.09 ดอลลาร์
• รายได้จากกลุ่มการขนส่งทางน้ำเพิ่มขึ้น 17% สู่ 569 ล้านดอลลาร์ ขณะที่กำไรจากการดำเนินงานเพิ่มขึ้น 26% สู่ 112 ล้านดอลลาร์ และอัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงานแตะระดับ 20%
• รายได้จากกลุ่มการจัดจำหน่ายและบริการเติบโต 6% สู่ 408 ล้านดอลลาร์ กำไรจากการดำเนินงานเพิ่มขึ้น 13% สู่ 48 ล้านดอลลาร์ ส่งผลให้อัตรากำไรอยู่ที่ 12%
• อัตราการใช้ประโยชน์เรือบาร์จในลำน้ำคงอยู่ในช่วง 90% ต้น ๆ ขณะที่อัตราการใช้ประโยชน์เรือขนส่งชายฝั่งอยู่ในช่วง 90% ปลาย ๆ
• ยอดคำสั่งซื้อรอรับรู้รายได้ของธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าเกิน 1.5 พันล้านดอลลาร์ โดยประมาณสองในสามผูกกับโซลูชันพลังงานหลังมิเตอร์ ส่วนอัตราส่วนยอดจองต่อยอดส่งมอบยังคงอยู่สูงกว่า 1 อย่างมาก
• ผู้บริหารได้แคบกรอบประมาณการการเติบโตของ EPS ปี 2026 เป็น 10%-15% และคาดว่าผลประกอบการจะอยู่ที่ช่วงบนของกรอบดังกล่าว

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการดำเนินงาน

การขนส่งทางน้ำ

ธุรกิจขนส่งทางน้ำในลำน้ำสร้างรายได้ 81% ของรายได้กลุ่มธุรกิจ รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 21% เมื่อเทียบรายปี โดยมีอัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงานอยู่ที่ประมาณ 20% รายได้การขนส่งในลำน้ำประมาณ 65% มาจากสัญญาที่มีระยะเวลาอย่างน้อยหนึ่งปี

อัตราค่าบริการในตลาดสปอตเพิ่มขึ้นในช่วงหลักเดียวระดับต่ำถึงกลางเมื่อเทียบกับไตรมาสก่อนหน้า และเพิ่มขึ้นในช่วงหลักเดียวระดับกลางเมื่อเทียบรายปี การต่อสัญญาในสัญญาระยะยาวเพิ่มขึ้นในช่วงหลักเดียวระดับต่ำจากปีก่อนหน้า ผู้บริหารระบุว่าส่วนต่างราคาระหว่างสปอตกับสัญญาระยะยาวยังคงอยู่ที่ประมาณ 10%-15% โดยค่อนไปทางช่วงบนของกรอบดังกล่าว

อุปสงค์ได้รับปัจจัยหนุนจากอัตราการเดินเครื่องของโรงกลั่นในระดับสูง ปริมาณเคมีภัณฑ์ที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้น และการนำเข้าน้ำมันดิบจากเวเนซุเอลาที่เพิ่มขึ้น Kirby สิ้นสุดไตรมาสด้วยเรือบาร์จในลำน้ำจำนวน 1,148 ลำ ซึ่งคิดเป็นความจุ 25.7 ล้านบาร์เรล

ธุรกิจขนส่งทางน้ำชายฝั่งคิดเป็น 19% ของรายได้กลุ่มธุรกิจ รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 3% เมื่อเทียบรายปี อัตราการใช้ประโยชน์คงอยู่ในช่วง 90% ปลาย ๆ และอัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงานอยู่ในระดับ 10% กลาง ๆ กลุ่มธุรกิจนี้ได้ดำเนินการต่อสัญญาระยะยาวเสร็จสิ้นหนึ่งฉบับในระหว่างไตรมาสด้วยอัตราค่าบริการที่ปรับขึ้นในระดับสองหลักช่วงต่ำ

นอกจากนี้ Kirby ยังตกลงที่จะเข้าซื้อสินทรัพย์ขนส่งทางน้ำในลำน้ำบางส่วนในมูลค่าประมาณ 115 ล้านดอลลาร์ โดยผู้บริหารระบุว่าธุรกรรมนี้จะช่วยขยายเครือข่ายลำน้ำและศักยภาพการให้บริการในเท็กซัสตอนใต้

การจัดจำหน่ายและบริการ

ธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าคิดเป็นประมาณ 46% ของรายได้กลุ่มธุรกิจ รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 8% เมื่อเทียบรายปี โดยมีอัตรากำไรจากการดำเนินงานอยู่ในระดับสองหลักช่วงต่ำ อุปสงค์สำหรับระบบผลิตไฟฟ้าหลังมิเตอร์และระบบไฟฟ้าสำรองยังคงแข็งแกร่ง แม้ว่าข้อจำกัดด้านความพร้อมในการส่งมอบเครื่องยนต์ของผู้ผลิตอุปกรณ์ดั้งเดิม (OEM) จะจำกัดความเร็วในการเปลี่ยนยอดคำสั่งซื้อรอรับรู้รายได้ให้เป็นรายได้

กลุ่มพาณิชย์และอุตสาหกรรมคิดเป็นประมาณ 44% ของรายได้กลุ่มธุรกิจ รายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 8% และกำไรจากการดำเนินงานเพิ่มขึ้น 23% เมื่อเทียบรายปี ซึ่งได้รับอานิสงส์จากกิจกรรมการซ่อมบำรุงเรือ

กลุ่มน้ำมันและก๊าซคิดเป็นประมาณ 10% ของรายได้กลุ่มธุรกิจ รายได้ทรงตัวเมื่อเทียบกับไตรมาสก่อนหน้า ขณะที่กำไรจากการดำเนินงานเพิ่มขึ้น 54% เนื่องจากสัดส่วนงานอะไหล่และงานบริการที่สูงขึ้น รวมถึงการบริหารจัดการต้นทุนอย่างต่อเนื่อง

ประมาณการจากผู้บริหาร

ผู้บริหารได้แคบกรอบประมาณการการเติบโตของ EPS ตลอดปี 2026 เป็น 10%-15% และคาดว่าผลงานจะอยู่ที่ช่วงบนของกรอบดังกล่าว

ผู้บริหารคาดว่าการต่อสัญญาขนส่งในลำน้ำประจำไตรมาสที่สี่จะได้รับประโยชน์จากความพร้อมของเรือบาร์จที่ตึงตัวและส่วนต่างระหว่างราคาสปอตกับสัญญาระยะยาว ทั้งนี้ โดยปกติแล้วประมาณ 35%-40% ของพอร์ตสัญญาระยะยาวจะมีการต่อสัญญาในช่วงไตรมาสที่สี่

Kirby ยังคงคงความคาดหวังระยะยาวสำหรับการเติบโตของรายได้จากธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าต่อปีที่ 10%-20% ผู้บริหารคาดว่าระบบหลังมิเตอร์จะสร้างโอกาสในตลาดหลังการขายที่มีอัตรากำไรสูงกว่า โดยรอบการซ่อมบำรุงที่สำคัญจะเริ่มขึ้นในอีกสามถึงสี่ปี

ความเสี่ยงและจุดที่ต้องติดตาม

• ต้นทุนเชื้อเพลิงที่สูงขึ้นยังคงเป็นปัจจัยกดดันอัตรากำไร เนื่องจากกลไกการชดเชยต้นทุนตามสัญญาล้าหลังได้สูงสุดถึง 120 วัน
• ข้อจำกัดด้านเครื่องยนต์ของผู้ผลิต OEM ยังคงส่งผลให้การเปลี่ยนยอดคำสั่งซื้อรอรับรู้รายได้ของธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าเป็นรายได้เกิดความล่าช้า
• ค่าจ้างแรงงานฝีมือ ราคาเหล็ก และปัจจัยการผลิตอื่น ๆ ในอู่ต่อเรือยังคงเป็นแรงกดดันด้านเงินเฟ้อ
• อัตรากำไรของธุรกิจขนส่งชายฝั่งคาดว่าจะเผชิญแรงกดดันในไตรมาสที่สี่จากกิจกรรมในอู่ต่อเรือตามแผนงาน ซึ่งเกี่ยวข้องกับเรือขนาดใหญ่
• การนำเข้าผลิตภัณฑ์ปิโตรเลียมสำเร็จรูปจากยุโรปที่ลดลงกดดันราคาสำหรับเรือบาร์จชายฝั่งขนาดเล็กบางส่วน
• กรอบเวลาการผลิตและการจัดส่งในธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้าอาจสร้างความผันผวนต่อรายได้และอัตรากำไรรายไตรมาส

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

ผู้บริหารคาดว่าราคาขนส่งในลำน้ำไตรมาสที่สี่จะสูงกว่าระดับในไตรมาสที่สามและเพิ่มขึ้นเร็วกว่าอัตราเงินเฟ้อ โดยอ้างถึงการเพิ่มกำลังการผลิตในอุตสาหกรรมที่จำกัด การปลดระวางเรืออย่างต่อเนื่อง และอัตราการใช้ประโยชน์ที่สูง เป็นปัจจัยสนับสนุนแนวโน้มราคาในระยะกลาง

เกี่ยวกับธุรกิจผลิตไฟฟ้า ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่ายอดคำสั่งซื้อรอรับรู้รายได้เพิ่มขึ้นจากกรอบเดิมที่ระบุไว้ที่ 1.0 พันล้าน - 1.5 พันล้านดอลลาร์ สู่ระดับมากกว่า 1.5 พันล้านดอลลาร์ Kirby กำลังเพิ่มกำลังการผลิตและว่าจ้างพนักงานประมาณ 200-300 คนเพื่อรองรับการเติบโต

ผู้บริหารประเมินว่าโอกาสในงานบริการหลังการขายของธุรกิจไฟฟ้าอาจเกิน 100 ล้านดอลลาร์ในที่สุด แม้ว่าจะย้ำว่าเรื่องนี้ยังคงเป็นเพียงประมาณการวางแผนภายใน ทั้งนี้ งานบริการหลังการขายคาดว่าจะมีอัตรากำไรสูงกว่าการขายอุปกรณ์ดั้งเดิม

สำหรับปี 2027 ผู้บริหารระบุว่าอัตรากำไรของการขนส่งทางน้ำทั้งในลำน้ำและชายฝั่งอาจปรับตัวดีขึ้น เมื่อการต่อสัญญาที่แข็งแกร่งส่งผลเข้ามาและกลไกการชดเชยต้นทุนเชื้อเพลิงปรับไล่ตามทัน นอกจากนี้ยังคาดว่าการปรับขึ้นราคาจะสูงกว่าอัตราเงินเฟ้อในวงกว้าง

บันทึกการประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Kirby Corporation 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded.

I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Donny Chia, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Donny Chia

Good morning, and thank you for joining the Kirby Corporation 2026 Third Quarter Earnings Call. With me today are David Grzebinski, Kirby's Chief Executive Officer; Christian O'Neil, Kirby's, President and Chief Operating Officer; and Raj Kumar, Kirby's Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

A slide presentation for today's call as well as the earnings release, which was issued earlier today can be found on our website. During this conference call, we may refer to certain non-GAAP or adjusted financial measures. Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings press release and are also available on our website in the Investor Relations section under Financials.

As a reminder, contained in this conference call with respect to the future are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect management's reasonable judgment with respect to future events. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated as a result of various factors. A list of these risk factors can be found in Kirby's latest Form 10-K filing and in our other filings made with the SEC from time to time.

I will now turn the call over to David.

David W. Grzebinski

Thank you, Donny, and good morning, everyone. Earlier today, we announced record third quarter earnings per share of $2.09, up 27% year-over-year. Our results reflected strong continued momentum across both businesses and solid execution throughout the organization. In marine transportation, strong barge utilization and favorable pricing trends supported performance during the quarter.

In Distribution and Services, results benefited from robust demand in power generation and strong growth on behind-the-meter power solutions. Overall, the company executed well during the quarter and delivered solid financial and operating results, reflecting our continued focus on safety and operational excellence.

In Inland Marine, market fundamentals remain constructive during the quarter. Strong refinery operating rates, healthy petrochemical activity and limited new industry capacity supported barge utilization in the low 90% range. Spot market rates improved sequentially in the low to mid-single-digit range, while term contract renewals increased in the low single-digit range compared with the prior year.

Increased levels of Venezuelan crude imports resulted in heavier refinery feed slate and more byproduct moves. However, rising fuel costs remained a near-term headwind as higher costs were only partially mitigated by cost escalators and rate recovery mechanisms during the quarter. The inland business delivered margins in the 20% range, driven by a combination of steady demand, disciplined execution and limited industry capacity additions.

In Coastal Marine, customer demand remained stable with barge utilization in the high 90% range and third quarter coastal revenues increased 3% year-over-year while operating margins were in the mid-teens range. There was only one contract renewal in the third quarter, which increased in the low double-digit range.

Turning to distribution and services. Our performance reflected favorable market conditions for power generation and strong execution by our commercial and operations team. Segment revenues increased 6% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for behind the meter and backup power solutions in a healthy environment for commercial and industrial.

For the quarter, operating margins were in the low double digits and up 200 basis points sequentially, reflecting the growing share of behind-the-meter power solutions in our power generation business as well as operational improvements throughout the segment. Overall, the segment delivered solid results across the portfolio, demonstrating the strength of the company's positions across multiple end markets.

In summary, Kirby delivered a strong quarter, underscoring the strength of our portfolio and the disciplined approach that we bring to our operations every day. In marine transportation, Inland delivered strong revenue growth year-over-year and coastal utilization remained high. In distribution and services, power generation remained a key growth driver. Commercial and industrial activity performed well and oil and gas remain stable. Taken together, these trends reinforce our confidence in the outlook for the remainder of the year, which I will discuss in more detail later in the call.

But first, I'll turn it over to Raj to walk through the segment results, balance sheet and capital allocation.

Raj Kumar

Thank you, David, and good morning, everyone. In the third quarter of 2026, Marine Transportation segment revenues were $569 million and operating income was $112 million, with an operating margin of 20% compared to the third quarter of 2025, total marine transportation revenues increased $84 million or 17%, while operating income increased $23 million or 26%.

The operating margin improvement came from strong utilization and improved pricing despite continuing inflationary pressures. Compared to the second quarter of 2026, total marine revenues increased 6% and while operating income increased 27%.

Looking at the Inland business in more detail. inland contributed 81% of Marine Transportation segment revenue with average barge utilization in the low 90% range for the quarter. Long-term contracts, or those with a term of 1 year or longer, contributed approximately 65% of inland revenue with 56% from time charters and 44% from contracts of affreightment. Improved market conditions resulted in average spot market rates increasing in the low to mid-single-digit range sequentially and increasing in the mid-single-digit range year-over-year.

Term contracts that renewed during the third quarter increased in the low single-digit range year-over-year. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, inland revenues increased 21%, while operating margins were in the 20% range.

Moving to the coastal business. Coastal represented 19% of revenues for the Marine Transportation segment with average barge utilization in the high 90% range, in line with the second quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2025. For the quarter, the percentage of coastal revenue under term contracts was approximately 95%, of which approximately 100% were time charters. Coastal had on term contract renewal during the third quarter which increased in the low double-digit range year-over-year. Coastal revenues increased 3% year-over-year with operating margins in the mid-teens range, driven by fewer shipyard days compared to the second quarter of 2026.

With respect to our tank barge fleet for both the inland and coastal businesses, we have provided a reconciliation of the changes during the quarter as well as projections for the full year. This is included in our earnings call presentation posted on our website. At the end of the third quarter, the inland fleet had 1,148 barges, representing 25.7 million barrels of capacity and is expected to be flat in the fourth quarter of 2026. Coastal Marine is expected to remain unchanged from the third quarter of 2026.

Now I will review the performance of the Distribution and Services segment. Revenue for the third quarter of 2026 was $408 million, with operating income of $48 million and operating margin of 12%. Compared to the third quarter of 2025, the KDS segment revenues increased by $22 million or 6% with operating income increasing by $6 million or 13%. This growth was driven primarily by continued strength in the power generation business, especially in our behind-the-meter applications and higher marine repair activity. Compared to the second quarter of revenue increased by $23 million or 6% and operating income increased by $10 million or 27%, reflecting improved activity levels, favorable mix and stronger performance across several end markets.

Moving to the segment in more detail. In power generation, we continue to see strong demand for behind the meter and back up our solutions. Our backlog increasingly reflects a greater share of behind-the-meter power solutions, which will be a tailwind for margins going forward. However, OEM engine availability remains constrained and limits the rate at which we can convert backlog into revenue. Overall, power generation revenues increased 8% year-over-year with operating margins in the low double-digit range. Power generation represented approximately 46% of total segment revenues.

In Commercial and Industrial, strong marine repair activity contributed to an 8% year-over-year increase in revenues and a 23% increase in operating income. The business represented approximately 44% of segment revenues and generated operating margins in the low double-digit range. In oil and gas, activity remained stable during the quarter. Revenues were flat sequentially and operating income increased by 54% sequentially and driven by higher-margin parts and service activity and ongoing cost management efforts. Oil and gas represented approximately 10% of segment revenues and generated operating margins in the low double-digit range.

Now I'll move on to the balance sheet. As of quarter end, we had $38 million of cash and total debt of $1.07 billion with a debt-to-capitalization ratio of 23.7%. We ended the third quarter with $530 million of available liquidity. During the quarter, net cash provided by operating activities was $143.5 million and capital expenditures was $69.5 million, resulting in free cash flow of $74 million. Working capital remained elevated during the quarter, reflecting higher revenues in both segments timing of collections and higher fuel related receivables in marine transportation. We expect this working capital requirements to normalize during the remainder of the year, supporting meaningful improvement in free cash flow in Q4.

In the third quarter, Kirby entered into an agreement to acquire certain inland marine assets from undisclosed sellers for approximately $115 million. The acquisition includes 9 inland towables, 14 inland tank badges, 9 Baltrusters and the Rockport, Texas leading operation. The acquired assets are expected to enhance Kirby's inland marine network in South Texas and further highlight our focused and disciplined acquisition strategy.

With respect to capital expenditures, we continue to expect full year capital spending to range between $220 million to $260 million. Approximately $170 million to $210 million is associated with marine maintenance capital. including improvements to existing inland and coastal marine equipment and facilities. Approximately $65 million is associated with growth capital spending across both businesses. For the full year, we remain on track to generate cash flow from operations of $575 million to $675 million.

Our capital allocation strategy remains focused on maximizing long-term shareholder value balancing disciplined investment in our businesses with consistent return of capital to shareholders. In the third quarter of 2026, we returned $112 million to shareholders through share repurchases at an average price of $137. These repurchases reflect our confidence in the long-term earnings power of the business and our view that at recent levels, share repurchases represent an attractive use of free cash flow.

Having said that, we continue to prioritize and evaluate acquisition opportunities within our core businesses, particularly in Marine, where we see the potential to further enhance our service capability, drive fleet efficiency and generate attractive long-term returns. Taken together, our balanced approach allows us to invest in high-return opportunity across opportunities across our portfolio, while consistently returning capital to shareholders.

With that, I will turn the call back to David to discuss our outlook for the remainder of the year.

David W. Grzebinski

Thank you, Raj. As we look at the balance of the year, we remain encouraged by the direction of the businesses. Across our portfolio, we are seeing the continuation of many of the same tailwinds that supported our third quarter results, including healthy demand solid asset utilization and continued inland pricing improvement.

While the broader operating environment remains dynamic, we believe our market-leading businesses and disciplined approach position us well in the fourth quarter of 26% and for a good 2027. As a result, we have narrowed our 2026 full year earnings growth guidance to 10% to 15% and currently expect results toward the upper end of that range.

Our confidence is supported by continued inland pricing momentum, the expected recovery of fuel cost timing impacts healthy utilization across marine transportation and solid execution on our growing power generation backlog.

In Inland Marine, we continue to see favorable operating environment. Demand from refining and petrochemical customers remains healthy, while barge availability across the industry remains relatively tight and pricing momentum continues to build. With spot pricing continuing to lead term pricing we believe the setup remains constructive as additional contracts renew in the seasonally heavy fourth quarter renewal period. Overall, inland revenues are expected to grow in the low double-digit range with operating margins in the high teens to low 20% range for the full year.

In Coastal Marine, underlying market conditions remain supportive with healthy customer demand and strong barge utilization. Overall, revenues are expected to increase in the mid- to high single-digit range for the full year with operating margins in the mid-teens range. The margin is reflective of elevated shipyard activity in the fourth quarter and the market-specific pricing dynamics we mentioned last quarter as well as ongoing cost pressures. In distribution and services, strength in power generation and marine repair is expected to continue driving segment results.

In Power Gen, Customer demand remains exceptionally strong, particularly for behind-the-meter power solutions, serving data centers and other industrial applications. While OEM engine availability continues to affect the timing of customer deliveries, our backlog and customer conversations continue to support a strong multiyear outlook. Importantly, growth in the behind-the-meter power application that operate continuously creates longer-term aftermarket parts and service opportunities as our growing installed base continues to expand. Within commercial and industrial, marine repair demand is expected to remain healthy, while on-highway activity remains constrained.

In Oil and Gas, activity is expected to remain stable, subject to changes in the market environment. Overall, we expect segment revenues to increase in the high single-digit range for the full year with operating margins in the high single-digit range.

To conclude, we delivered solid third quarter results and remain well positioned for the remainder of the year. Marine transportation fundamentals remain favorable supported by strong utilization, improving inland pricing and limited new capacity. In distribution and services, power generation continues to be a key growth driver while commercial and industrial activity remains healthy.

Supported by our market-leading positions, enhanced service capabilities, fleet efficiency and disciplined approach, we remain confident in our outlook and our ability to deliver our narrowed EPS growth guidance range.

Operator, this concludes our prepared remarks. Christian, Raj and I are now ready to take questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Tomo Sano with JPMorgan.

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Tomohiko Sano

Congrats on a strong quarter. Maybe starting with Marine, how are you thinking about pricing over the next 12 months? And how sustainable is that pricing power over the medium term please?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. Sure, Tomo. This is David. I'll start and turn it over to Christian for some more detail. Look, in the third quarter, we had low single to mid-single-digit spot pricing increases, but it was a small portfolio that replaced in the third quarter. Term pricing was up low single digits. But importantly, momentum is building into the fourth quarter here and we think the pricing should be north of what we saw in the third quarter, which is really important because it sets up for a good 2027.

And longer term, we still see supply and demand in really good balance right now. Nobody is really building new equipment, and the retirements continue. So we don't see much in terms of net new adds to the industry fleet over the next several years. But let me turn it over to Christian, who's got a lot more color on particularly the fourth quarter renewal season that's ongoing right now.

Christian O'Neil

Yes. Thank you, David. I think you characterized it well as we have a lot of momentum going into the fourth quarter and going into next year. It was a very small sample set in Q3, single-digit term contracts that actually renewed we'll definitely see stronger momentum improvement in everything, all things inland. Supply remains tight. There's only 65-ish barges being delivered this year. It feels like most of that's replacement capacity. Our utilization remains high, low 90% range to exit the quarter. We actually touched 95-plus percent utility a couple of times in the last few weeks.

Refinery utilization is near record levels. And the spread between spot and term pricing when you bake all this together, remains about 10% to 15%. And I would tell you it's on the higher end of that on the 15% range. And when spot is outpacing term at those levels, we really get the opportunity to get some good bite to turn pricing. Chemical volumes are also improving, supported by global rationalization. The Gulf Coast Path 3 chemical plants are busy. Middle East infrastructure has taken a lot of damage, a lot of capital discipline out there from our competitors. New build e-coms remain a challenge. We don't see supply growing in the near term, as David said. And again, to restate at contract pricing continues to improve, and I'll stop there.

Tomohiko Sano

Follow-up on KDS power generation scales, how quickly can service and parts become a more meaningful part of the mix? And how much margin upside could that create over time, please?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. No, great question. Again, Chris and I'll tag team this here a bit. Look, the pace of orders has been great. And particularly for behind the meter or bring your own power, which is what everybody is talking about now because with the NIMB or not my backyard and the concerns that a lot of the data center pushback is talking about is about power. So there -- this bring your own power move is real.

As we look at our order inbound and even our backlog right now, which is probably 2/3 behind the meter of power or bring your own power that's really good for us because those are natural gas systems. They're complex. They have a lot of what we call balance of plant equipment which we're the OEM for. We don't make the engine, but we put everything around the engine, whether it's a cooling system, an air intake system, sound attenuation system, as well as power distribution systems that link it all together. All that's our equipment and we're the OEM. And importantly, as the OEM, we end up getting the service and parts there. Now Christian will describe a little more on how long that takes to start converting service.

Christian O'Neil

Yes. Thank you, David. And Tomo, thanks for the question. We are highly focused on the aftermarket opportunities here. our data center customers, our powers to service customers, they demand uptime. They demand turnkey solutions. The aftermarket opportunity will provide a nice stability for us after this CapEx cycle starts to fade a little bit or slow down a little bit.

We think the aftermarket opportunity can exceed the original product value and so we are aggressively going after that. We've built a new part of our team led by Chad Jos, who leads our Power Service team to chase this aftermarket opportunity vigorously. As David said, we have the right to win on a lot of the behind the meter equipment that we're producing, and we're highly focused on it, highly excited about it.

We think in 3 to 4 years, you'll begin to see the maintenance cycle. We describe it internally as the new car effect. You buy a new car, it works great. It's smells grade. It operates smoothly in about year 4, mechanic down the street, licking as shops. We see that big ramp-up in aftermarket about 3, 4 years out. it'll be $100 million-plus business for us. Again, don't hold me to that, but that's what we're scoping it out and budgeting it out to be today as we build the team and build techs, very excited about the aftermarket opportunity.

David W. Grzebinski

I would just add, you asked about margins. Obviously, aftermarket has higher margins that I think it really realizes that. And behind the meter, bring your own power equipment has higher margin than just back up diesel. So the margin profile should continue to improve. Just a little caution on quarterly progression.

We do have lumpiness in both manufacturing and shipments, and that swings around the margin a bit quarter-to-quarter. So really, the focus on margin should be on an annual basis, what's the average annual. Our view is that's going to improve and continue will be in the double-digit margin range in a year or 2, if not the full.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bascome Majors with Stephens.

Reed Seay

This is Reed Seay on for Bascome. If we could start on the marine side, just some wording in the release around coastal on the call as well. If we look at the margins, I understand there's some heightened shipyards and there's some pricing dynamics. One, if you could give us an update on the pricing dynamics with those specific size ships that you called out last quarter.

And then you also called out some, I believe, it was ongoing cost pressures. Is that just the shipyard? Or are there some other dynamics that we should be aware of?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. We'll handle this together again, Reed. Look, the fourth quarter, we've got some larger units coming into the shipyard. And as you've heard us describe before, these large units, they have high day rates and when they're out of service. We still have all the cost that goes with it, and we just don't have the revenue. So that's just part of the business.

You saw our margin in the second quarter was lower than what we saw in the third quarter. the fourth quarter will be more like the second quarter in terms of margin, principally because of the shipyard cadence. That's just a normal part of the business. I'll let Christian talk about the cost structure in the contracts.

Christian O'Neil

Thank you, David. Thank you, [ Bas ]. Yes, you asked about the market dynamic piece of that, that we alluded to and spoke about last quarter. You do see a bit of that flow through of the net effect of what was European barrels that import into the Northeast. And our smaller barges, our 80s and hundreds, get the opportunity to move those European barrels and redistribute them on the East Coast. With the low amounts of European imported refined products, we have seen that impact those margins on those contracts that service that piece. And so what you see now is just a little bit of that flow through that we talked about last quarter as those 80s and 100s put a little bit of the pricing pressure.

The good news is the bigger units, the thermal oil units, the chemical units, those other pieces of the business we are very, very bullish about. There is a high demand for them. The rates are very good. And we do see improving rates as you saw the single contract that renewed this quarter, and I think it was in the double-digit range. You also asked about cost pressures.

Inflation is real. We see it across various buckets in the marine companies in general, skilled labor, not just for us, but even in the D&S companies, when it comes to engineers and others, there's a lot of pressure on skilled labor, particularly around the Mariner and the inflation there. And the other piece is the price of steel and a lot of the other inputs that go into a major yard period or shipyard period see inflationary pressures around those, and maybe those are eating to the margin a little bit here.

Reed Seay

Got it. That makes a lot of sense. And then if I could just ask on PowerGen as well. Could you provide an update on what that backlog looks like in terms of on a quarter-over-quarter basis, what it looks like versus 1Q? And when we should start to see some backlog harvesting -- or how much of that is going on right now. Just any color there would be helpful.

David W. Grzebinski

Sure. I think in the first quarter, I said our backlog was $500 million to $1 billion in the second quarter, I said $1 billion to $1.5 billion. And I would just tell you right now, we're north of $1.5 billion in terms of backlog. The important thing is book-to-bill. Book-to-bill is well above 1 right now. We're continuing to take orders. The inquiry level is still very high. you hear about all the delays and stuff and ups and downs in the daily news.

But I would just tell you the demand is still there. it's robust. Everybody needs power. I mean if you're going to build a data center, particularly with the political pressure nowadays that you're seeing across the United States, they're calling it bring your own power. And if you're going to build a data center, you better bring your own power, which is music to our ears, frankly. That's with the low cost of natural gas, that's perfect for our natural gas reset systems that we build. So we're excited about it, Reed. We don't want to really get into telling our backlog every quarter because you guys know what that game is like. But we're trying to give you direction.

Reed Seay

Makes sense. And -- we appreciate that. If I could sneak in a bigger picture one just on inland. You've had some demand headwinds in the past year or more. Can you talk about some of what you expect on the come in terms of demand, like particularly on the chem side, which we saw struggle a little more last year?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. Again, Chris can give you a lot more detail than I can. But that third quarter of last year, the feedstocks like got really light. There was not a lot of heavy coming in. Part of that was tariff driven. Part of it was just some of the global political dynamics. But now that Venezuelan crude is coming back in, the feedstock slates heavy other heavy feedstocks are getting discounted because of the competition from Venezuela, which is really good for our refinery customers. Similarly, in the chemical side, we've seen some strength. I don't know if Christian can give you a lot more detail.

Christian O'Neil

Yes. No, I think when you compound record refinery utilization with what's finally for us, we're beginning to see some strengthening chemical markets, particularly in the Gulf of America that we service in part driven by global rationalization I think you're finally seeing the European less-efficient PE and chemical producers, they're closing the doors on some of those less efficient plants. You've seen the Middle East infrastructure taken a lot of damage, frankly, in the conflict over there.

And then you just have the natural competitiveness of Path 3 with its proximity to achieve natural gas and its feedstock advantage. I think when you compound all those together, we're beginning to see our chemical customers more optimistic. We're beginning to see the opportunity to move some pricing on the chemical side. And in general, chemical volumes are improving. We definitely see that. And so when you compound that with record refinery utilization, hey, that's a great cake to make over here at Kirby.

Operator

Our next question comes from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Ivan Yi

This is Ivan Yi on for Scott. First on margins, both inland and coastal margins seem to be down this year. Can margins in both segments start growing again in 2027?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. The short answer is absolutely. We just talked about the weakness we saw in 2025. That had set up the fourth quarter when those terms -- that heavy term contract renewals came in and that put some headwind on margins. we are definitely crawling out of that hole and making real progress now. inland margins were in the 20% range this quarter. As you heard Christian describe the fourth quarter renewal cycle, it is going to be really strong. So margin should definitely improve from here.

Ivan Yi

Great. And then you seem bullish on pricing next year, but what about the cadence of cost? Can the price/cost spread accelerate from '26 to '27, especially if fuel prices start moderating next year? I just want to get an update on the cost side as well.

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. We should have real price increases over inflation here. fuel has been a headwind as I'm sure everybody is aware of anybody that's using diesel nowadays is probably talking about that headwind. We work really hard, Christian and his team make sure we have fuel adjustment clauses and all our contracts, but there's a lag. Some of them have a 120-day lag. Others are very short. We saw a pretty big headwind in the second quarter on fuel.

We thought we've recovered at all in the third, but fuel did another tick up. I think we got north of $4 a gallon. So there's a little bit of a headwind in our margins on fuel this quarter as well. Assuming fuel doesn't take another leg up, that should start to roll through here as we -- as all our contract clauses adjust here in the fourth quarter. Some of that will roll into the first, but that fuel headwind should mitigate.

But fuel moves around -- our goal, again, with our customers is to not take any risk on fuel or make any money on fuel, they are best able to bear that. In terms of other inflation, you heard Christian talk about the Mariners and in mariner inflation, wage inflation for any skilled worker these days is real.

And then steel is definitely a headwind. We use a lot of steel, all our boats and barges, use steel. And even on the D&S side, there's a heavy steel component. That said, again, we think pricing will definitely be north of inflation. The good news is some of the other inflationary items that we had seen over the years has mitigated some. But it's still real, but the upshot is -- will be over inflation in terms of rate adjustments.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

Adam Roszkowski

Dave, Raj and team, this is Adam Roszkowski on for Ken Hoexter. Maybe just into the 4Q repricing season. Could you just remind us what percentage of the book reprices in 4Q? And maybe just clarifying, you had noted inland term renewals were up low single digits in 3Q. Is that above the inflationary pressures you are seeing? Was that behind? It sounds like you expect the price cost to get better into next year. So just thoughts there. .

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. No. Usually, the fourth quarter is probably 35% to 40% of the portfolio. Third quarter was -- as you heard Christian mentioned, a handful of contracts, so it was low. But it was in line with inflation, maybe a little better than inflation. But I would tell you, with what we're seeing in terms of term spot spread and the way fourth quarter is lining up it will easily be over inflationary levels.

And it needs to be, look, the big picture here in terms of supply and demand is pricing still 40% below new build economics. So there is some building for replacement, but nobody is really building equipment to expand. So as demand continues to grow, demand generally grows with GDP, right now, obviously, with what's going on in the refinery world in terms of refined products globally, we're very busy.

But if new equipment is going to get built, prices have to go up in a meaningful way. So it's a good backdrop for the next 3 to 5 years for sure, and we're pretty excited about it. And I know Ken has asked in the past about peak margins, we're going to, in my view, with this cycle, we'll be setting new peak margin records. It may take a little bit, but this is set up for a good long run.

Adam Roszkowski

And then just last one, following the recent or upcoming inland asset acquisition, are you seeing more opportunities like this from smaller operators, private fleets?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. And it's not just a smaller operator as well. I mean we're probably in more active discussions than we've been in a long time. But look, we are very disciplined. We don't overpay. We stayed disciplined. We always look at everything on a point and acquisitions are hard to predict. There's a bid offer spread process, but we stay disciplined. The -- the good news is there's enough conversations happening that we're excited about. And this is just another little tuck-in that Christian was able to get done. We don't talk about it, but this had a big bleeding operation, which is really important for our customer service. These fleets, we don't talk about them much, but they had tremendous customer service value. And that was the key with this one acquisition.

We got some great equipment, but it's also that fleet that really can make a big difference. I don't know if you want to add anything, Christian.

Christian O'Neil

As well said it, yes, the acquisition is great, modern fleet, good Mariners well-run company. As David mentioned, the infrastructure in Corpus Christi area is very strategic, 65 acres of fleeting, ability to fuel our vessels, the ability to get potable water. We got cranage to do topside repairs, it checks a lot of boxes. And additionally, this was unique in that it's a fleet that operated with balusters which adds to the efficiency of unit toes operating on the west end, particularly in the high wind that you see down there. So all in all, a great acquisition that we're very excited about. And if any of that new team is listening, welcome to Kirby.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Mohr with Citi.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Congrats on the beaten raise. I wanted to ask a question maybe to get your thoughts on timing. I see that you raised your inland revenue growth to low double digits from the mid- to high single digits on some of the key drivers. Great to see. It looks like there's a pretty good long tail if you combine each of these drivers that I think we've talked about it in the past. The Venezuela imports, Chevron this past quarter in a public forum estimates around lasting around 10 to 15 years further Venezuela heavy coming in.

You've got Iran where even if the war ends, we could be another several quarters or a couple of years a benefit for you in crack spread widening beyond the eventual end of the war. You've got Calcasieu that benefited 3Q and 4Q maintenance bump late '27, early '28. And then kind of beyond all this, the risk of returning to the chems recession. Just wanted to get your thoughts on sort of what I've laid out there in timing? Would you agree? Would you adjust some of these numbers? It does seem like the long tail is very supportive.

David W. Grzebinski

I think you summarized it really well. We've got some really good tailwinds here. We're very excited about where we are in this cycle. It ammo feel like a super cycle here. The -- everything you mentioned is true Calcasieu did help a little bit. But I will tell you on Calcasieu, in particular, the core of engineers managed that very well. We didn't see the industry back up that we normally see. So with our utilization is 40 as it is, it could have been even tighter with Calcasieu, but they managed it well. Those short-term lock disruptions and weather disruptions are going to happen.

But systemically, the stuff you outlined is pretty bullish for us. We know a maintenance cycle is coming in '28. It will start -- we'll see it with our fleet and then the whole industry fleet, and it will be significant again. We see our refinery customers. Look, the U.S. refinery complex is the best in the world. It is the most efficient they can they are running flat out to -- and given what's in Iran and we didn't -- I don't know if you mentioned Russia, but the Russian, Ukraine situation is not good either. So that doesn't look like it's going to change in the near term for sure. There's some talk of piece with Russia and Ukraine, but that could be midterm election driven. So we'll see.

We're very excited about the outlook here for the marine companies, not even to mention the distribution and services power gen stuff as well. But it's a good time for Kirby. We're very excited about the outlook for the next several years. Yes, I think you described all those macro items very, very well, Ben.

I think when you compound that with the industry capital discipline that we see now post COVID, really what could derail all those great things you mentioned, it would be the undisciplined overbuilding of the market, and we don't see that type of behavior at all. And the pricing of inland tank barges prevent that. You're looking at $4.6 million, $4.7 million for [indiscernible] million for black oil, $2.5 million for $10,000. So we just don't see that undisciplined overbuilding risk in the short run, longer run. So combined with your macro description, things look really good. Nice spend.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Great. Really, really appreciate that. Dave and Christian. My next question, I wanted to get a sense of sort of maybe discerning between benefiting from mix versus core rate. You mentioned the low single digits -- low mid-single digits contract in spot gains in inland this quarter from some of the small contracts renewed in the quarter. And so when we look back at 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, we saw some very, very strong contract and spot rates for you guys during that time.

As we calculate our model, looking at your implied inland revenue per utilized barge per day that we estimate looks like it was up 7.5% 2Q and it's accelerated to up 8% here in 3Q, even though your contracted spot rate kind of mix is low single digits, Cisco or so. would you say you're seeing good strength and mix as well as some rate gain, maybe more in mix versus rate gain kind of versus what you experienced in 2022? .

David W. Grzebinski

Yes, it's a great question. The interesting thing is these are portfolio of contracts. We have literally hundreds of contracts and a lot depend on when they were last renewed. So it's difficult to answer your question. I think in terms of revenue per ton mile, maybe is what you're looking at and I would just be careful because ton miles move around a lot depending on what moves we're doing. So just to give you an example, if it's crude oil from West Virginia, it goes all the way down to Ohio to the Mississippi down to the Gulf Coast refineries. Those are a lot of ton miles, may not be as much revenue as say, chemical cross-channel move here in the Houston Ship Channel, which would be very low revenue -- or excuse me, high revenue but low ton miles. So I'm not sure what you're looking at. I think maybe Donny and Raj can follow up with you and make sure we understand fully what you're looking at.

Raj Kumar

I think, Ben, I'll just add and just say that as we look into Q4, everything is set up really nicely for the marine companies. Ilan Marine as you know, and we've talked about this 35% to 40% of our term book gets renewed in Q4. And given the dynamics that we're seeing with the supply situation being in such a favorable position, we're set up to have a really good renewal cycle. I'll let Christian add some color to that because I think it's important for that message to come across.

Christian O'Neil

No, we're very bullish in going -- finishing renewals. John Hallmark and the commercial team are doing a great job. We've already had some nice wins as we sit here today at the end of October, and we look forward to continuing that momentum mean momentum is the word I would use. It's a mix of high utility, and you combine that with the winter weather that always helps tighten things up. that will add to the ability to push rates here in the fourth quarter. But we feel very positive about it, very encouraged. We're in a great spot, and momentum is the word.

Raj Kumar

And I'll just add on Q3, as we entered Q3, I mean, we saw fuel was actually quite favorable. And as we were -- as Q3 progressed, fuel started to be a headwind for us, right? So -- and even in that situation, given the few contracts that we renewed, and these were not a large number of contracts that we've renewed in -- from a term perspective in Q3, we still got that price increase and it helped to mitigate a lot of that fuel impact, as you can see in the results.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Greg Wasikowski with Webber Research.

Gregory Wasikowski

I'm just going to combine mine into one. So a 2-parter here going back to chemicals. Firstly, what's driving some of that strength that you're seeing? Last year, I think you talked about some European plants starting to shut down. Are we starting to see some of the effects of that now? And then secondly, can we extend some of that optimism to the 100 market? Or any other notable differences that you're seeing between the 100k and 30,000 market either on the demand or supply side?

David W. Grzebinski

Yes. Thank you, Greg. Yes, you are seeing the rationalization of the chemical capacity in Europe, closing and shutting down, combined with the U.S. Gulf chemical manufacturers filling that gap globally. And so when we talk to our chemical customers, they are -- their pricing has improved. Their exports have improved and they're exporting to markets historically that might have been supported by Middle East chemical manufacturing capacity.

So the combination of the damage from the war in the Middle East Gulf Coast being super competitive, cheap natural gas and being the highest tech best assets in the manufacturing space and the global rationalization of capacity have all compounded to strengthen our chemical book, probably some room to go still to get back to sort of peak chemical demand, but we feel really good about it. It's definitely stronger than it was a year ago.

And I'm very glad you asked about the 10-K market. In recent weeks, we have seen our 10,000 barrel barge utility reach, I'm going to say, near record levels. We're very busy the 10-Ks or nearly fully deployed -- and the team is doing a great job of marketing those barges. We've won some new contracts and grown our book. And all in all, we just got a lot of momentum there. And nice to see the chemical volumes back. And again, when you combine that with record refinery utilization, you begin to have the perfect storm for Kirby.

Operator

Our next question comes from Ben Mohr with Citi.

Benjamin Mohr Mok

Just one last question on Power Gen. Revenues up 8% this quarter, and you mentioned OEM availability being constrained still, but your backlog growth is still very strong. You mentioned in the past, up 10% to 20% is sort of your longer-term outlook for power gen revenue growth. How do you see that trending into that? Do you maintain that outlook? Or are we maybe kind of looking at a lower end of that outlook, given sort of OEM capacity build constraints. So I wanted to just get your thoughts on that, please.

David W. Grzebinski

No. I would say we're going to maintain that outlook. 10% to 20% growth. I mean that's a big range. So yes, we'll maintain that. I would say the OEM stretching out is okay. That just kind of means that the -- there's more time to absorb and produce this equipment -- and for us to ramp up our capabilities, good news is Christian started an expansion at 1 of our plants 1.5 years ago. And we've got a new, what we call generator assembly building, which has increased our capacity.

And right now, we're hiring probably 200 to 300 people. So you can imagine the OEMs are doing that at even a greater scale to get their stuff ramped up. So it's an interesting dynamic -- the OEMs are struggling. It is unprecedented demand. But they're all very quality conscious too. So as you ramp up these new plants, they're making sure it works. The last thing they want is a bad reputation. So it's an interesting dynamic. We like where it is right now. It's a strong ramp. So having it slowed down a little bit is not really bothering us. It's actually allowing us to execute a little better. But it's still within that range you gave in.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Donny Chia for closing remarks.

Donny Chia

Thank you, operator, and thanks to everyone for participating on our third quarter 2026 earnings call. If you have any additional questions or comments, please feel free to contact me directly. Thank you, and have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.