การประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการไตรมาส 2 ปี 2026 ของ Credicorp (BAP): เป้าหมาย ROE ระยะกลางที่ 22%

สรุปประเด็นสำคัญ

• Credicorp รายงานอัตราส่วนผลตอบแทนต่อส่วนของผู้ถือหุ้น (ROE) ที่ระดับ 20.3% สำหรับไตรมาส 2/2026 ขณะที่ ROE ในครึ่งปีแรกแตะระดับ 21.2% โดยได้แรงหนุนจากการเติบโตของสินเชื่อที่รวดเร็วขึ้นและการขยายตัวของสัดส่วนรายได้
• ยอดสินเชื่อ ณ สิ้นไตรมาสเพิ่มขึ้น 13.1% เมื่อเทียบรายปี ผู้บริหารได้ปรับเพิ่มแนวโน้มการเติบโตของสินเชื่อในปี 2026 เป็นประมาณ 12% โดยนำโดยสินเชื่อรายย่อยของ BCP และการเติบโตของ Mibanco
• รายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิเพิ่มขึ้น 13.3% เมื่อเทียบรายปี รายได้ค่าธรรมเนียมเพิ่มขึ้น 15.9% และกำไรจากรายการปริวรรตเงินตราต่างประเทศเพิ่มขึ้น 29.8% ขณะที่ส่วนต่างรายได้ดอกเบี้ยสุทธิ (NIM) อยู่ที่ 6.6% และ NIM ที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยงอยู่ที่ 5.5%
• อัตราส่วนสินเชื่อด้อยคุณภาพ (NPL ratio) รวมปรับตัวดีขึ้นสู่ระดับ 4.1% ด้านต้นทุนความเสี่ยง (Cost of risk) อยู่ที่ 1.9% ซึ่งรวมถึงการตั้งสำรองเพิ่มเติมที่เกี่ยวข้องกับปรากฏการณ์เอลนีโญประมาณ 106 ล้านดอลลาร์ และส่งผลกระทบ 27 basis points
• ผู้บริหารได้ปรับเพิ่มคาดการณ์ ROE ระยะกลางเป็นประมาณ 22% โดยอ้างถึงมาร์จินที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยงที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้น การเติบโตของค่าธรรมเนียม การสร้างรายได้จากช่องทางดิจิทัล และการประหยัดจากขนาดในการดำเนินงาน (operating leverage)
• Credicorp ยืนยันคาดการณ์ ROE ปี 2026 ที่ประมาณ 19.5% โดยมีแนวโน้มปรับตัวขึ้น (upside bias) ขึ้นอยู่กับการพัฒนาและความรุนแรงของปรากฏการณ์เอลนีโญ

ข้อมูลทางการเงินที่สำคัญ

ผลการดำเนินงานทางธุรกิจและการปฏิบัติการ

BCP สร้าง ROE ที่ระดับ 29.2% ยอดสินเชื่อเพิ่มขึ้น 10.9% เมื่อเทียบรายปี หรือ 12.2% เมื่อขจัดผลกระทบจากอัตราแลกเปลี่ยน โดยมีการเติบโตในธุรกิจธนาคารรายย่อยและการฟื้นตัวของสินเชื่อบรรษัท ขณะที่ NIM ของ BCP อยู่ที่ 6.1% อัตราส่วน NPL ลดลงเหลือ 3.9% และต้นทุนความเสี่ยงอยู่ที่ 1.4% ซึ่งรวมถึงการตั้งสำรองเพิ่มเติมที่เกี่ยวข้องกับเอลนีโญ

Yape ยังคงขยายบทบาทภายในระบบนิเวศดิจิทัลของ Credicorp อย่างต่อเนื่อง โดยแพลตฟอร์มมีผู้ใช้งานเป็นประจำต่อเดือน (monthly active users) มากกว่า 15 ล้านราย ซึ่งผู้ใช้ทำธุรกรรมเฉลี่ย 69 รายการต่อเดือน ทั้งนี้ สัดส่วนของ Yape ต่อรายได้ที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยงของกลุ่มเพิ่มขึ้นเป็น 8.9%

พอร์ตสินเชื่อของ Yape เติบโตขึ้นสี่เท่าเมื่อเทียบรายปี ขณะที่จำนวนลูกค้าที่ได้รับการเบิกจ่ายสินเชื่อแตะระดับ 5.6 ล้านราย ธุรกิจสินเชื่อคิดเป็น 28% ของรายได้ของ Yape และการชำระเงินคิดเป็น 45% โดยรายการชำระเงินที่สร้างรายได้เพิ่มขึ้น 42% เมื่อเทียบรายปี

Grupo Pacifico บันทึก ROE ที่ระดับ 19.1% กำไรสุทธิค่อนข้างทรงตัวเมื่อเทียบรายปี เนื่องจากเจริญเติบโตแบบออร์แกนิกในประกันชีวิตและผลประกอบการประกันสุขภาพองค์กรที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้น ถูกชดเชยด้วยการเปรียบเทียบกับการกลับรายการสำรองในปีก่อนหน้าและการเคลมประกันวินาศภัยที่สูงขึ้น

ธุรกิจจัดการลงทุนและที่ปรึกษาทำ ROE ได้ที่ 23.5% กำไรสุทธิเพิ่มขึ้น 47% เมื่อเทียบรายปี โดยได้แรงหนุนจากธุรกิจที่มีรายได้สม่ำเสมอและกิจกรรมการซื้อขายที่สูงขึ้น สินทรัพย์ภายใต้การจัดการ (AUM) เพิ่มขึ้น 44% ในธุรกิจบลจ. และเพิ่มขึ้น 30% ในธุรกิจการบริหารความมั่งคั่ง

แนวโน้มและคำแนะนำจากฝ่ายบริหาร

ผู้บริหารยังคงคาดว่าเศรษฐกิจเปรูจะเติบโตประมาณ 3.5% ในปี 2026 ซึ่งรวมถึงประมาณการผลกระทบจากเอลนีโญแล้ว

Credicorp ได้ปรับเพิ่มแนวโน้มการเติบโตของสินเชื่อ ณ สิ้นไตรมาสปี 2026 เป็นประมาณ 12% โดยผู้บริหารคาดว่าทั้ง NIM และ NIM ที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยงจะจบลงที่ระดับบนสุดของช่วงคาดการณ์เดิม โดยได้รับการสนับสนุนจากการเติบโตของสินเชื่อรายย่อย สัดส่วนพอร์ตสินเชื่อ และอัตราดอกเบี้ยที่ยังคงอยู่ในระดับสูงยาวนานขึ้น

ปัจจุบันคาดว่ารายได้ค่าธรรมเนียมจะเติบโตในอัตราสิบกว่าเปอร์เซ็นต์ช่วงปลาย (high-teens) สะท้อนถึงกิจกรรมการทำธุรกรรมที่แข็งแกร่งขึ้น แรงส่งทางเศรษฐกิจที่ต่อเนื่อง และความสัมพันธ์กับลูกค้าที่แน่นแฟ้นยิ่งขึ้น ขณะที่อัตราส่วนประสิทธิภาพคาดว่าจะยังคงอยู่ภายในกรอบคาดการณ์

ผู้บริหารคาดว่าต้นทุนความเสี่ยงจะเพิ่มขึ้นในช่วงครึ่งปีหลัง เนื่องจากการปล่อยสินเชื่อรายย่อยขยายตัวและมีการรวมข้อมูลเพิ่มเติมเกี่ยวกับเอลนีโญ อย่างไรก็ตาม คาดว่าต้นทุนความเสี่ยงตลอดทั้งปีจะยังคงอยู่ในกรอบคาดการณ์ ซึ่งรวมถึงกรณีสถานการณ์เอลนีโญรุนแรงที่ประเมินในปัจจุบันแล้ว

บริษัทได้ยืนยันคาดการณ์ ROE ปี 2026 ที่ประมาณ 19.5% โดยมีแนวโน้มปรับตัวขึ้นขึ้นอยู่กับสถานการณ์เอลนีโญ ส่วนในระยะกลาง ผู้บริหารคาดว่า ROE จะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 22% และอัตราส่วนต้นทุนต่อรายได้ (cost-to-income ratio) จะอยู่ที่ประมาณ 40% เมื่อโครงการดิจิทัลขยายตัว และรายได้เติบโตเร็วกว่าค่าใช้จ่าย

ความเสี่ยงและประเด็นที่ต้องจับตา

ปรากฏการณ์เอลนีโญเป็นความไม่แน่นอนหลักในระยะสั้น Credicorp ประเมินว่าประมาณ 9% ของสินเชื่อทั้งหมดเผชิญความเสี่ยงโดยตรงจากลูกค้าที่อาจได้รับผลกระทบ โดยภาคประมง เกษตรกรรม และกิจกรรมที่เกี่ยวข้องทางตอนเหนือของเปรูได้รับผลกระทบหลักจนถึงปัจจุบันในปี 2026

ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่า ผลกระทบทางเศรษฐกิจที่รุนแรงที่สุดอาจเกิดขึ้นใน Q1 2027 หากสถานการณ์ทวีความรุนแรงขึ้น เหตุการณ์ที่รุนแรงขึ้นอาจลดการเติบโตของสินเชื่อและรายได้ค่าธรรมเนียม แม้ว่าผู้บริหารจะมองว่าการหยุดชะงักนี้เป็นเรื่องชั่วคราวมากกว่าการเปลี่ยนแปลงเชิงโครงสร้างในแนวโน้มการเติบโตของเปรู

Credicorp คาดว่าจะมีความชัดเจนมากขึ้นเกี่ยวกับความรุนแรงของเอลนีโญในช่วงเดือนกันยายนหรือตุลาคม บริษัทวางแผนที่จะประเมินการตั้งสำรองผลขาดทุนที่คาดว่าจะเกิดขึ้นอีกครั้ง ณ จุดนั้น โดยใช้ข้อมูลอัปเดตภายใต้กรอบการมองไปข้างหน้าของ IFRS 9

ประเด็นสำคัญจากการถาม-ตอบกับนักวิเคราะห์

• การเติบโตของสินเชื่อ: ผู้บริหารคาดว่าทั้งพอร์ตสินเชื่อบรรษัทและรายย่อยจะเติบโตในอัตราเลขสองหลัก หากไม่รวมผลกระทบระยะสั้นจากเอลนีโญที่อาจเกิดขึ้น โดยระบุถึงการลงทุนภาคเอกชนที่ปรับตัวดีขึ้นและการเข้าถึงสินเชื่อในระดับต่ำของเปรู ซึ่งอยู่ที่ 34% ของ GDP เทียบกับ 42% ในปี 2019
• คุณภาพสินเชื่อ: ผู้บริหารระบุว่าการปรับตัวดีขึ้นเป็นผลมาจากทั้งสภาวะเศรษฐกิจที่เอื้ออำนวยและความก้าวหน้าภายในองค์กรด้านการปล่อยสินเชื่อ การติดตาม และการจัดเก็บหนี้ โดย Credicorp เน้นย้ำว่าบริษัทบริหารจัดการผลตอบแทนของสินเชื่อผ่าน NIM ที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยง มากกว่าการพิจารณาต้นทุนความเสี่ยงเพียงอย่างเดียว
• การตั้งสำรองสำหรับเอลนีโญ: ความเสี่ยงของสินเชื่อบรรษัทจะได้รับการสอบทานเป็นรายลูกหนี้ ขณะที่การประเมินสินเชื่อรายย่อยจะพิจารณาจากภูมิศาสตร์และโปรไฟล์ของผู้กู้ ทั้งนี้ อาจมีการบันทึกการตั้งสำรองเพิ่มเติมหลังจากการประเมินใหม่ในเดือนกันยายน–ตุลาคม
• ROE ระยะกลาง: ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่าเป้าหมาย 22% สะท้อนถึงการเติบโตในผลิตภัณฑ์สินเชื่อ ประกันภัย และการลงทุนที่ยังมีอัตราการเข้าถึงต่ำ มาร์จินที่ปรับปรุงด้วยความเสี่ยงสูงขึ้น การขยายตัวของรายได้ค่าธรรมเนียม และการประหยัดจากขนาดในการดำเนินงานเชิงบวกทั่วทั้งกลุ่มบริษัท
• สินเชื่อของ Yape: การเติบโตมาจากทั้งผู้กู้รายใหม่และรายเดิม โดยมีการเพิ่มขนาดวงเงินสินเชื่อและระยะเวลาการกู้ยืมเนื่องจาก Credicorp รวบรวมข้อมูลการชำระคืนหนี้ได้มากขึ้น ขณะที่การให้สินเชื่อบุคคลยังคงนำหน้าโครงการใหม่สำหรับผู้ประกอบการ SME
• การจ่ายคืนเงินทุนแก่ผู้ถือหุ้น: ผู้บริหารกล่าวว่า การตั้งสำรองเพิ่มเติมสำหรับเอลนีโญที่อาจเกิดขึ้นไม่น่าจะส่งผลกระทบต่อเงินปันผลพิเศษที่อาจจ่ายในปี 2026 โดยอ้างถึงฐานทุนของ Credicorp และข้อเท็จจริงที่ว่าการจ่ายเงินดังกล่าวจะเกี่ยวข้องกับกำไรที่เกิดขึ้นในปีก่อนหน้า

บันทึกการประชุมแถลงผลประกอบการฉบับเต็ม

บทถอดเสียงฉบับเต็มของการประชุมทางโทรศัพท์ผลประกอบการ

คำชี้แจงจากฝ่ายบริหาร

Operator

Good morning, everyone. I would like to welcome you to the Credicorp Limited Second Quarter 2026 Conference Call. A slide presentation will accompany today's webcast, which is available in the Investors section of Credit Corp's website. Today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. Now it is my pleasure to turn the conference over to Credicorp's IRO, Milagros Cigüeñas. You may begin.

Milagros Cigüeñas

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Speaking on today's call will be Gianfranco Ferrari, our Chief Executive Officer; and Alejandro Perez-Reyes, our Chief Financial Officer. Participating in the Q&A session will also be Francesca Raffo, Chief Innovation Officer; Cesar Rios, Chief Risk Officer; Diego Cavero, Head of Universal Banking; Eduardo Montero, Head of Insurance and Pensions; and [indiscernible].

Before we proceed, I would like to make the following sort safe harbor statements. Today's call will contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and I refer you to the forward-looking statements section in our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances.

Gianfranco Ferrari will begin the call with remarks on the current operating environment, credit of strategic priorities and the key drivers underpinning our confidence in achieving a medium-term ROE of around 2%. He will also highlight our strong performance this quarter. Alejandro Perez-Reyes will then review our financial performance in ready and discuss our outlook for Gianfranco, please go ahead.

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

Thank you, Milagros. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Before reviewing our quarterly performance, I would like to begin by showing why we have greater confidence in there's medium-term outlook and what this means for Credicorp. We believe Peru is entering a more favorable environment for growth. This confidence is grounded first in the continued improvement of the country's underlying economic fundamentals.

Private investment, domestic demand, favorable commodity prices and business confidence, we're already gaining momentum before the recent election. The political transition could help reinforce this momentum. Greater visibility around the public agenda and less submitted congress and continued commitment to produce sound macroeconomic framework and private investments with further support contracts. Everything notes of policy continuity and discipline, including the formation of a new and solid technical team at the Ministry of Economy and Finance and continuity at the Central Bank are encouraging and consistent with a more predictable economic environment. Data supports this view.

Business confidence has recovered to its highest level in years. Private investment is growing by approximately 13% year-over-year and domestic demand by more than 5%. Peru also continues to benefit from exceptional favorable commodity prices, with gold prices having roughly doubled since 2033 and copper prices increasing nearly 60%. Together, these factors are strengthening investment, trading demand and economic activity, providing a solid foundation for a stronger medium-term growth. The principal near-term risk to this outlook is [indiscernible].

While we recognize its potential impact on families, communities and small businesses, we continue to view it as a temporary and manageable shop rather than a structural cage in Peru's growth trajectory. At [ Tencor ], we are prepared to support our clients and communities through this period. leveraging our ecosystem, distribution channels and digital capabilities to help them anticipate and manage potential disruptions. Alejandro will provide more details on expected financial impact and how we're incorporating currently available information related to a minor risk into our financial outlook.

Importantly, based on the information currently available, [indiscernible] does not alter our power confidence in Peru's medium-term outlook prorability to continue delivering sustainable growth. Across the region, the outlook remains mixed as consulting over the medium term. In Chile, while near-term activities have been softer than expected the investment type elevated copper prices and policies aimed at encouraging investment support a better outlook. In Colombia, despite ongoing challenges and the terrible impact of the recent earthquake market sentiment has improved following recent political development reflected in a stronger currency and lower sovereign yields.

Overall, the improving operating environment reinforces our confidence in Credicorp's long-term outlook. Against this backdrop, we delivered a strong second quarter with solid performance across our businesses and continued progress against our strategic priorities. Let me now walk you through the key results. We delivered another quarter of strong execution, reporting a 20.3% ROE, reflecting the strength of our diversified business model and solid performance across our core businesses.

Operational momentum remained robust across the franchise. Our innovation portfolio contributed 9.9% of credit cost risk-adjusted revenue, keeping us firmly on track to our strategic objectives while demonstrating that [indiscernible] is becoming an increasing in meaningful contributor to our earnings profile. We're also seeing fresh demand continue to strengthen. Loan growth accelerated across our main lending businesses, supported by both retail and Wholesale Banking and BCP as well as [indiscernible].

Our profitability continues to benefit from disciplined execution. Risk-adjusted NIM stood at 5.5%, supported by our low-cost funding advantage, healthy pool mix and digital life. Our strong capital position and disciplined risk management continue to provide resilience. We're actively monitoring nears reinforcing our ability to support clients while maintaining a sound risk profile. At the same time, we remain focused on building the business for the long term.

Our efficiency ratio stood at 45.4%, while investments in innovation and digital capabilities continue to broaden our revenue base. deepened customer engagement, foster financial inclusion and support most scalable growth. As we have discussed in recent quarters, our premium medium-term ROE expectation of around 19.5% have become increasingly conservative as our performance strengthened and the underlying economics of our business continued to improve. We created across our key markets and earning drivers we believe the right -- the time is right to update our medium-term ROE expectations.

We now believe Credicorp has the capacity to deliver a medium-term return on equity of approximately 22%. This reflects a more favorable operating environment, but more importantly, the structural transformation of our ecosystem. Over the past several years, we've strengthened the drivers of our earnings. Improving the quality of our loan portfolio, enhancing risk management capabilities, reinforcing our structural funding advantage and diversifying our sources of revenue.

At the same time, we have invested consistency in technology, data and talent, creating a more scalable and efficient business model. Innovation is an increasingly important part of the transformation. It is expanding financial inclusion and deepening customer relationships while becoming a more meaningful contributor to growth, any diversification and long-term resilience. Together, these structural improvements position us to deliver stronger and more sustainable profitability across economic cycles.

We look forward to sharing more information about our innovation strategy is becoming an increasingly important driver of growth and value creation across Credicorp at our visual strategic update on November 17.

Now let me turn the call over to Alejandro.

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Thank you, Gianfranco, and good morning, everyone. As Jan Franco mentioned, we delivered a 20.3% ROE this quarter supported by strong operating performance, accelerated loan growth and higher risk-adjusted revenues across our diversified business ecosystem. I discuss the quarter's highlights, I will focus on the year-over-year operating trends. Loans measured in quarter end balances increased 13.1%. This uptick was driven primarily by BCP through both retail and wholesale banking and by Miba. Asset quality improved further with credit cards NPL ratio declining to 4.1% for the quarter, supported by better origination quality and enhanced collections capabilities.

The cost of risk stood at 1.9% and reflecting portfolio growth within our risk appetite and an impact of 27 basis points due to near-related provisions based on currently available information. Net interest income increased 13.3% in mainly driven by lower interest expenses, supported by our low-cost funding structure and by a higher yield in loan mix. Against this backdrop, NIM stood at 6.6%. Other core income grew 19.7%. Fee income increased 15.9%, boosted by transactional activity at Japan BCP.

Gains on FX transactions rose 29.8% through higher volumes at BCP, which rose in context of a higher volatility in the comparative Lasting results decreased, mainly reflecting a base effect from provision reversals recorded in the second quarter of last year in the life business. Our diversified business portfolio strong capital position and healthy asset quality puts us in good stead to navigate potential El Nino impacts as we continue to execute our strategic priorities. Next slide, please.

[indiscernible] economy remained resilient in the second quarter of the year with GDP estimated to have grown by around 3% year-over-year. Robust domestic demand supported by historically high terms of trade employment gains and ongoing business cycle momentum helped offset a sharp contraction in primary activity. Primary GDP is estimated to have fallen by nearly 5% year-over-year, marking its sites decline since 2014, excluding the pandemic. As El Nino related disruptions weighted on fishing, agriculture and primary manufacturing. Despite these headwinds, domestic demand is estimated to have expanded roughly 5% year-over-year, reporting the seventh consecutive quarter of strong growth.

High-frequency indicators continue to sign our broad-based and robust economic expansion with several indicators posting double-digit year-over-year growth. Private investment expectations have rebounded sharply following the residential deletion, reaching their highest level since the series began in 2013. [indiscernible] has confirmed full elates continuation as governor of the Central Bank and appointed Elmer cola, a respected macroeconomist and former Central Bank Director, a finance minister, reinforcing expectations of solid and predictable macroeconomic policy under the new administration.

Next slide, please. Under Chairman [indiscernible], the Federal Reserve has emphasizes commitment to price stability and in limited tolerance for persistently elevated inflation. Economies remain divided between expectations of additional rate hikes and an extended cost in monetary policy. In Peru, annual inflation remained around 4% year-over-year between April and July, its highest level since late 2023, driven primarily by higher local transportation costs. Core inflation, excluding transportation is still below 2%.

In Colombia, annual inflation is slightly to 6% year-over-year in July, down from 6.1% in June, marking the first moderation after 4 consecutive monthly increases. Inflation remains elevated, however, partly reflecting the significant minimum wage increase implemented at the beginning of the year. The Central Bank has responded by raising its policy rate by 275 basis points in December. Investor sentiment in turn has improved following the election of [indiscernible] elated. In this context, the peso has appreciated sharply, making its strongest showing against the U.S. dollar since 2019.

In Chile, higher oil prices and weaker than expected mining production have weighted on the economic outlook this year. Annual inflation is 3.5% year-over-year in July after reaching its highest level in 9 months in June. While the Central Bank has kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. In June 2026, Bolivia transitioned to a market-based FX framework, replacing its long and intake. We do not anticipate a material impact on Credicorp given that we incorporated market exchange rate dynamics in Bolivia in our reporting of the first quarter of last year.

In parallel, the IMF and authorities reached a staff level agreement on a new program of about $1.9 billion to support the country's economic reform program. Although uncertainty persists around oil prices, geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the potential impact of aluminum during the remainder of the year, as Gianfranco mentioned, we believe that improvements in the regional operating environment supports our confidence in a more favorable medium-term outlook.

Next slide, please. Before moving on, I would like to address a El Nino risk in Peru, a key topic for investors, assessing our earnings, asset quality and capital generation resilience. El Nino is a transitory event that periodically affects. While it may create short-term volatility, it does not alter our long-term view of the trivia economy or its underlying strength. So far in 2026, El Nino [indiscernible] has mainly affected Peru fishing, agriculture and related activities in the North, while the broader economy has remained resilient.

The strongest impact would likely materialize in the first quarter of next year is the event intensified or converged with the global engineered scenario. From a macro perspective, we estimate 2027 GDP growth to remain resilient around 3% under a moderate strong line scenario, while an extraordinary event could lead to a more pronounced slowdown. Importantly, Peru is entering this period with stronger fundamentals and higher liquidity across the financial system than in prior is. For Credicorp, estimated direct exposure to potentially affected clients is approximately 9% of total loans. While visibility should improve towards the last quarter of this year, we are already incorporating the currently available information related to a linear risk, resulting in additional provisions starting in June. Under the scenario currently assessed, we expect full year 2026 cost of risk to remain within guidance.

Looking towards 2027, a more severe event put moderate loan growth and fee income through downward pressures on activity. However, we are better prepared than in previous similar events, supported by lower direct exposure, early mitigation, a stronger risk management and analytics and healthier portfolio quality. More broadly, this is not a new risk for us. We have a robust governance framework and mitigation playbook supported by enhanced data and digital capabilities. This helps us identify burner our clients earlier, communicate at scale and deploy target deductions faster.

In short, we are approaching this scenario from a position of strength. Portfolio quality remains healthy. Our balance sheet is strong, and we are confident in our ability to manage potential revenue impact while supporting clients, communities and the broader Peruvian economy and preserving profitability. Next slide, please. This quarter, BCP's profitability remains strong with a favorable economic batter Loan growth continues to accelerate as underlying credit risk trends remain positive. In parallel, currently available information related to a linear risk has been incorporated into provisions.

In this context, ROE stood at 29.2%. From a quarter-over-quarter perspective, total loans rose 4.7%. In FX-neutral terms, loan growth stood at 5.5%. The Retail loans led the expansion bolstered by performance in the consumer and SME PM segment. Additionally, wholesale loans rose primarily on the lack of long-term loans as the outlook for private investment continued to improve. NIM stood at 6.1% as the loan portfolio shifted to a higher yield mix, while funding costs remained stable. The NPL ratio fell to 3.9%. This result was driven by improvements across business segments where the NPL ratio fell on the back of 45% is management capabilities. The cost of risk rose to 1.4%, reflecting the normalization of underlying cost of risk and additional mine related provisions.

Underlying provisioning was mainly driven by portfolio growth in specific retail segments, particularly consumer and SME Tim, where higher yielding products continue to perform within our expectations. As a result, BCP's risk-adjusted NIM stood at 5.2%. On a year-over-year basis, total loans rose 10.9% and 12.2% in FX inflow terms, led by retail banking and secondarily by wholesale banking through the same factors mentioned in the quarter-over-quarter analysis. NIM rose 12 basis points, mainly driven by funding cost improvement alongside an increase in low-cost deposit share of total tau. The NPL ratio dropped 93 basis points, fueled mainly by the SME team and individual segments, mostly driven by better origination and enhanced collection capabilities.

Cost of risk rose 25 basis points, mainly as a result of higher loan volumes rather than a deceleration in underlying patents. [indiscernible] income rose 15.4% and driven mainly by fee income, strong transactional activity was channeled through [indiscernible] and BCP. Gains on FX transactions also contributed to this result, albeit to a lesser extent, transacted volumes rose significantly in a context marked by high volatility. As a result, the ratio of other core income to assets remain strong, supported by our diversified industries.

Finally, operating expenses, which are better explained on an accumulated basis, rose for 14.9% year-to-date due to an uptick in both administrative and personnel expenses. Administrative expenses rose on the back of growth in IT-related services and use of cloud infrastructure. Personnel expenses rose driven by the continued development of commercial technological capabilities and by an uptick in variable compensation. In this context, the efficiency ratio stood at 38.6% for the first half of the year.

Next slide, please. Yape continues to strengthen its position of Peru's leading digital ecosystem. The platform remains highly engaged with more than 15 million [indiscernible] users transacting 69 per month and maintaining an NPS of $78 million. Customer engagement remains exceptionally strong, and we continue to see that translate into stronger unit economics. Revenue per mile reached 11.1, outpacing growth in expenses per month, which stood at -- as a result, APE contribution to Credicorp's risk-adjusted revenues increased to 8.9%, reinforcing its growing relevance within the group.

At the same time, continues to expand its financial services footprint. Loans reached PLN 1.8 billion, up 4x year-over-year, while the number of clients receiving loan disbursements increased to $5.6 million. With loan penetration at around 1/3 of monthly active users, we continue to see significant opportunities to further expand lending adoption, increase customer lifetime value and deepen financial inclusion across Peru.

As Yape scales, the composition of Yape revenues continues to evolve. Lending further increases contribution to 28%, while payment contribution stood at 45%. Moreover, revenue-generating payment transactions grew 42% year-over-year, continuing to strengthen Gas' ability to generate data, enhance customer engagement and unlock cross-selling opportunities across CrediCorp as strong engagement, improving monetization and significant headroom for deeper product and service adoption position the platform to sustain scalable, profitable growth.

Next slide, please. EAA continues to strengthen its trace, combining healthy growth with disciplined risk management. At the same time, we continue fostering revenue diversification to enhance the resilience and quality of earnings. This strong execution translated into a quarterly ROE of 22.9%. On a quarter-over-quarter basis, loans measured in quarter end balances grew 4.4%. The supported by continued growth in low-ticket loans, the main driver of recent quarters and a greater focus on higher ticket segments where larger loan sizes accelerated volume growth.

In this context, the NPL ratio continued its downward trend, reaching a record low of 4.8%. The average yield on interest saving assets maintained an upward trend offsetting a slight uptick in the cost of filing. As a result, NIM rose 23 basis points to stand at 15.2%. The cost of risk rose 30 basis points and stood at 5.1%, reflecting higher underlying provisions and additional aluminum-related provisions. Provisioning for underlying credit risk growth driven primarily by portfolio growth within our risk appetite and to a lesser extent, a slight increase in rigs. Risk-adjusted NIM stood at 11.2%, down 5 basis points.

From a year-over-year perspective, loans rose 15%, supported by improved productivity amid a dynamic economy. In this context, our portfolio's margin increased despite a slight uptick in the cost of fund. As a result, NIM rose 78 basis points. The cost of risk fell 24 basis points on the back of lower risk vintages. Despite ongoing investments in the strategic initiatives to fuel digital transformation and modernize technology, the efficiency ratio for the first half of the year dropped 4 percentage points to stand at 4%. Mibanco Colombia continued to deliver strong results with double-digit loan growth, disciplined risk management and enhanced commercial productivity.

As a result, ROE reached 18.5% for the quarter. Next slide, please. Grupo Pacifico delivered solid results this quarter on the back of strong commercial execution across all businesses. In this context, ROE stood at 19.1% at quarter end. Net income remained relatively flat year-over-year. Pacifico continues to deliver solid profitability led by our Life business, the largest contributor to Medico. Our life business posted healthy organic growth this quarter driven by strong momentum in bancassurance and retail sales. Nevertheless, net income reported lower results due to a base effect associated with provision reversals in the disability and survivorship line in the second quarter of last year.

In the P&C business, net income fell driven primarily by lower underwriting results, which raised the higher claims. Our Corporate Health business posted higher net income for the quarter, supported by stronger premium production as the customer base expanded. Meanwhile, results in our medical services business remained relatively stable, supported by resilient commercial dynamics and disciplined cost management.

Next slide, please. Profitability in our investment management and advisory business strengthened significantly this quarter. Sustained growth in recurring businesses, coupled with an uptick in trading contribution due to temporary market volatility drove a strong ROE of 23.5%. From a year-over-year perspective, revenues increased, supported by solid performance across our recurring business. Asset Management and Wealth Management contributed positively with AUM up 44% and 30%, respectively.

The capital market line also contributed significantly to results where heightened market volatility and increased activity among corporate clients created favorable conditions to boost trading and client as Higher revenues were partially offset by an increase in operating expenses, where the uptick was driven by a comparatively low base in the first half of 2025. As a result, net income increased 47% year-over-year.

Next slide, please. Now I'd like to examine the evolution of our consolidated balance sheet. Sequentially, interest earning assets grew 1.8%, driven primarily by loan growth at BCP and to a lesser extent, by higher investment balances as we capitalize from practical opportunities by leveraging our cash position. On the liability side, the 3.5% funding increase was driven by growth in demand and time deposits and an uptick in the balance of Central Bank funding instruments. On a year-over-year basis, interest selling assets rose 12.2% led by loan growth at BCP and Milan. The impact of this shift in the asset mix offset the impact of decreasing interest rates. Keeping the yield on interest-earning assets stable at 8.4%. On the liability side, lower interest rates and an increase in the share of low cost deposits drove a 29 basis point decline in the funding cost which stood at 2.2% at quarter end. Against this backdrop, NIM was 6.6% for the quarter. Next slide, please.

Moving on to loan portfolio quality. Portfolio quality continues to evolve favorably this quarter as NPLs dropped to 4.1%, driven by improvements in origination, monitoring and collection it. Based on current available information, we registered approximately $106 million in additional provisions related to El Nino risk. This brought our reported cost of risk to 9%. Excluding this impact, cost of risk stood at 1.6%, primarily reflecting portfolio growth within our risk appetite. Underlying portfolio trends remain solid, supported by healthier vintages and enhanced risk capabilities.

As a result, coverage levels remain strong, reinforcing the balance sheet's ability to observe future volatility while preserving capacity to support growth. In this context, the NPL coverage ratio rose and stood at 117.3%. Next slide, please. Core income grew 15.1% year-over-year on the back of diverse revenue streams with net interest income, fees and FX pace reporting double-digit expansion. Profitability metrics continued to strengthen year-over-year with risk-adjusted NIM standing at 5.5% this quarter, reflecting disciplined pricing, portfolio mix optimization and solid underlying credit performance.

The efficiency ratio for the first half of the year stood within guidance of 45.6%. Operating expenses grew 13.5%, fueled primarily by core business and BCP and investments in our innovation portfolio. Growth in core expenses at BCP was due mainly by IT expenses for commercial and transactional capability development. Expenses for our innovation portfolio, which were led by [indiscernible] rose 33% and represented 84% of disruptive expenses for the world. Next slide, please. First half ROE reached 21.2%, supported by the strength of our integrated business ecosystem and ongoing improvement in economic conditions.

Net income remained robust, bolstered primarily by accelerated loan growth across key businesses. Loan expansion was achieved alongside prudent risk management and complemented by an increase in contributions from diversified revenue streams which rose on the back of market leading transactional and digital capabilities. Now I will move on to our guidance. Next slide, please. We continue to expect [indiscernible] to grow around 3.5% in 2026, including the estimated impact of I. We are raising our outlook for loan growth measured in quarter end balances to around 12%.

And reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum primarily in retail banking at BCP and [indiscernible]. The expected loan in shift towards retail, coupled with a more recent scenario, where interest rates are expected to remain higher for longer should support NIM and risk-adjusted NIM, which we expect to stand at the higher end of our guidance rate. As retail origination continues to expand and we incorporate currently available information related to a no risk we expect the cost of risk to increase in the second half of the year and to remain within our guidance range.

We are also raising our fee income outlook, now expecting high-teens growth supported by stronger transactional activity continued economic momentum and our strategy to strengthen principally. The efficiency ratio is expected to remain within guidance. We are reaffirming our cargoes ROE guidance of around 19.5% with a current bias to the upside, subject to how El Nino evolves. Our operating income came in ahead of our expectations. Visibility on the potential severity of El Nino remains limited. As new information becomes available, we will continue to reflect updated and a related provisions.

Looking ahead to the medium term, as Gianfranco mentioned earlier, we expect ROE to move structurally higher. This outlook is supported by stronger loan growth across our core businesses, higher yield or volume mix sustained funding advantage and increasing contributions from 3 based revenues. As our ecosystem made initiatives continue to scale, we expect to capture greater operating leverage while maintaining disciplined risk management and capital allocation.

Together, these drivers strengthen our ability to deliver a medium-term ROE of around 22%. Before we begin the Q&A and given that this will be my last conference call as Credicorp CFO. I would like to take a moment to thank all of you for your support, engagement and constructive dialogue throughout my [indiscernible]. Your questions [indiscernible] have helped us make us better, and I'm deep [indiscernible].

As I take on my new role leading [indiscernible] Microfinance business, I look forward to staying connected with many of you and sharing our progress and perspectives on the opportunities ahead. I would also like to wish Ignacio every success in role. Having worked closely with him for the last 2.5 years, I am confident he will do an outstanding job, and I know Credicorp will continue to benefit under his leadership and expertise. Now I would like to open the Q&A session.

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. The first question will come from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America.

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Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez

Thank you. Hi, good morning, Gianfranco, Alejandro, Ignacio, Cesar, Francesca and Milagros. Congrats on your second quarter results and in your conviction of reaching a medium-term ROE of 22% in the next years. And also very helpful the slide that you provided about El Nino, very, very careful.

So my question would be on loan growth. Congrats on returning to a double-digit loan growth, and I noted that you're expecting around 12% growth in this year. But having said that, how should we think about the loan growth breakdown by segment? Just to understand if you would be conservative in the risky portfolio or how comfortable you are to grow the portfolio under a potential strong amino.

César Ríos

Thank you, Ernesto, for your questions. Regarding El Nino, I will say that our approach has been both a comprehensive trying to address the different dimensions on the impact and also very granular at the same time. As Alejandro has highlighted we have identified the parts of the portfolio by segment, by geography per field of the client that has going to be more impacted under the scenarios that we have contemplated. And we are adjusting and going to adjust gradually the appetite in this segment very heroically. So our impact is going to be related to this part of the portfolio, depending on the severity. But in the rest of the country, economic growth, our ambition and expectations remains strong.

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

[indiscernible] complementing Cesar's comments are -- actually, the question has like it's a twofold answer. One is specifically on amino we cease answered I would only add there that we're also trying to be proactive in helping our clients to be more prepared for the impact by industry, by region, really as [indiscernible]. But the other answer is more -- a longer-term answer is, as we mentioned along the presentation, business confidence is record levels. Traffic investments have been growing at double digits.

Private consumption has been growing at over 5% over the last, I think, 6 quarters already. And well, commodity prices are where they are and so on. So yes, no is, I would say, like a hiccup in terms of potential negative impact. But in a more longer-term vision, we are very confident that the macro environment is very, very positive.

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

This is Alejandro. Maybe just to add one more important data point to Gianfranco's comment is the loan penetration. I think I mentioned this some time before, but if you take constant exchange rate of December of 2025. At the end of last quarter, the penetration of loans in Peru fell 34%. In 2019, it was 42% to GDP. So I mean there's still an opportunity even to go back numbers that we've already seen. So we think the opportunity is big. And if we add to that the capabilities that we have developed, we are really confident in the midterm loan growth regardless of the hiccup that might come from the short term.

Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez

No, perfect. Very helpful. And just a follow-up on all these in terms of the trend for example, wholesale and retail, should we expect in both loan portfolios to be at the double digit because of what you were mentioning private investment, primary consumption, commodities prices, all that should be helping. And in that scenario, very, very granular in what could be exposed related to El Nino. So how should we think about the loan growth for both segments, double-digit for Bolt? Or how are you thinking about it?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes. We are expecting -- I mean, again, without considering the hiccup coming from El Nino, we are expecting double-digit loan growth for both wholesale and retail. Retail has been already showing it. And as we were mentioning, wholesale is picking up again. We did very high expectations from private investments. So yes, the short answer is yes, both portfolios should grow double digit.

Operator

The next question will come from Brian Flores with Citibank.

Brian Flores

Good morning. Congratulations on the results and best of luck to Alejandro and Ignacio on the respective roles. I have a question on asset quality. The cost of risk seems to be very, very controlled despite the fast growth you're showing, right, across the board in SMEs, in AP, in consumer. So we wanted to understand strategically if we, as analysts, do you think we're I don't know, maybe underestimating how much better your underwriting is or the collection have improved because -- or do you think this is more extraordinary regarding the extraordinary liquidity in the system, the good conditions from the macro. I just wanted to understand how much do you think this is idiosyncratic and how much could this be more of a tailwind from the macro side?

César Ríos

Yes. Thank you, Brian, for the question. I think without that, the positive economic environment is a significant factor. But as we have mentioned previously, we have been working very discipline in several parts of the risk capabilities in the origination models, monitoring collections. And we have entered, I would say, after an initial phase of identifying particular improvements in a new phase in which we are developing, I would say, better, higher capabilities, and we are starting to reap the benefits of that.

The approach is very disciplined. BCP, Mibanco, also in the other subsidiaries of the group level by level, and we are developing and deploying these capabilities. These capabilities are also going to help us to withstand the potential impact of El Nino. But our long-term vision is that we are going to increase the capacity to originate higher -- in general, higher yielding loans with controlled risk monitoring very closely the risk appetite. Alejandro highlighted, specifically the collections. We have been more focused on models, origination, monitoring. And recently, we have started to develop additional capabilities and collections that are showing results in BCP and ban. So the short answer is the environment health, but we are doing our job improving internally.

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

Brian, just one quick comment on top of what a just mentioned. Don't forget that we don't manage that in by cost of risk, we manage by risk-adjusted NIM. So yes, the cost of risk may increase. But what we're convinced is that the risk-adjusted NIM is going to increase more than that because as we go into new markets, the Yape portfolio is a great example. Yes, the cost of this is higher, but the risk adjusted NIM is also higher.

Brian Flores

No, super clear, Gianfranco. Just also, if I may, a quick follow-up on your recent comment. We know, obviously, we have a new administration coming in. Just wanted to check with you after maybe your initial approaches with them if you feel the tone in terms of partnerships in terms of growth is a bit more of it or are you a bit more constructive in terms of the outlook here for particularly growth, right?

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

Yes. Yes. Yes. As Alejandro mentioned before, the penetration and the financial system, we've gone back. It's not that it's still very low, and we've gone back. So we haven't had any specific contracts with the new administration. But from what we see and listen, the whole environment is much -- it's going to be much more proactive in terms of promoting financial inclusion, promoting growth, promoting private investments. And obviously, that environment is much more benign for growth of the financial system.

Operator

The next question will come from Renato Meloni with Autonomous Research.

Renato Meloni

I wanted you to expand your comments on the provisions for El Nino and what to expect going forward. So first, on the 106 million this quarter, was that like client specific? Or was that more sector-specific and the ones that you mentioned before? And then going forward, is this going to be like a recurring level for the next couple of quarters? Or this is enough for the foreseeable future?

César Ríos

Thank you. Thank you for the question, Renato. As we mentioned, we have done a very thorough analysis of the portfolio. talking specifically the provision thing we have gone print by client segment by segment in the wholesale part of the portfolio. And in the retail, we have used an approach of geography and profile of the client and we have several scenarios. And we are with the logic of expected losses that is embedded in the logic of IFRS 9, we are constituting provisioning, and we are going to have probably a second important point of control at the end of the second quarter, the beginning of the -- sorry, at the end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth because in our conversation with the specialists, the climatologist, at this point, September, October, we are going to have a much better assessment of the severity.

We are moving in the expectation of medium and strong mind at this point, we are going to make a reassessment to calibrate the expected losses that we need to book this year. Perfect. So September, October, a potential new adjustment, and that's going to be it for this year. And when we go to 2027, when you mentioned it's the when the economy will see the impact, maybe another one there or potentially be first [indiscernible] what was that?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes, the way we provision through IFRS 9 is a forward-looking provision. Therefore, you're completely right. Depending on the data, I just mentioned, depending on the data, we can analyze in September, October, we will make a new assessment as we move forward and the real impact of El Nino comes into place, we will decide what that more than we. The model will tell us what the provision should be. remind our provision system is forward-looking

Operator

The next question will come from Daniel Vaz with Safra.

Daniel Vaz

Hi guys, good morning. Congrats on the results. Alejandro, Ignacio, wishing you the success in your new roles. So my question is regarding your refreshed midterm ROE guidance. So we often as you are a bank, we often do a bottom-up analysis to your model. But Credicorp, you still are holding also, right? So you have a lot of businesses we could look at a top-down view or some of the parts view also.

So I guess my question is, which companies in your holding carry the most upside right now. So Mibanco is already running above the 22% guidance. BCP runs at 30s and Pacifico and the advisory runs below. So should we expect even better ROEs at the ones that already run above it or ROEs improving at the ones which we this level right now?

César Ríos

Yes. Thank you, Daniel. I'll first start talking about the levers that we believe are behind the new midterm ROE that we've shared and then give you some color on the specific question. So basically, we believe this comes from continuing to grow in the underpenetrated financial product segment. And this, by the way, is lending, but it's also investment, it's also insurance. So all in all, they are all underpenetrated segments, even if you compare them to countries like Colombia and of course, Chile, so there's still an opportunity to continue penetrating the other thing is that we are expecting higher risk-adjusted margins.

This is supported by pricing, the shift in portfolio mix that I mentioning, risk capabilities also. So we should see an impact there. The other important thing is an increase in fee income and monetization of our innovation portfolio. Seeing the most visible one, but other ones coming down the pipeline that should start to generate also more fee income and a positive operating leverage where basically income should grow faster than our expenses. So all of those things bring us to the new around 22% ROE.

When you talk specifically, I think there's both things can be true in the sense that we believe there's still space for some improvement in ROE in the companies that are performing strong to BCP, Mibanco, going back to this penetration in lending, et cetera, but if you think about also the under penetration in insurance and their penetration in mutual funds, there is still space also in the other company. So we are not seeing this like specifically in 1 or 2 companies. We believe there is space for improvement across the board.

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

On what [indiscernible] just mentioned. Also bear in mind the impact on the disruptive initiatives. They are very -- in terms of ROE, they are very accretive. So they're going to be accretive this year. And obviously, as we move forward, they should be -- or we expect them to be much more accretive. So that's another lever that you should take into account.

Operator

The next question will come from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with ABC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

And the first in, congratulations, and thank you to Alejandro for this time with us. It has been brief, but it has been good. And [indiscernible] I want to talk about the same question, which is the target priority. My question is a little bit different what is the urgency to increase the midterm ROE? You were around 17% for a long time. increased on last October to 18.5%. Now you got 22. At this point in time, where arguably everything is going right, you're delivering 21%, is this something that you are setting an internal goal or something has changed fundamentally that makes you believe that you actually need to be there.

And I also start because I go back in time over the last 10 or 20 years, your REs have been my number, 7.5%, 19%, that's even taking out of it. And you actually are less leveraged now than you were then to have more capital. So I mean it would stand to reason that maybe it doesn't get that high. So I want to understand why you need to move the target now? And again, I don't know that I can achieve it. I just wondering why?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

This is Alejandro. So I'll begin by saying that, yes, we did mention the 19.5% in October of last year, but I specifically mentioned there that we were going into a big political cycle in all of Latin America. If you remember at that time, we were about to have elections in Colombia, a Chile, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru. And -- so we basically decided to take a conservative stance, and we were explicit about it. And we did mention then that we would come back after that cycle with a revised number, which is what we're doing right now. And when you look and I was just explaining the drivers, the ecosystem we've built our ability, the principality we build and our ability to better serve all these clients it makes us confident that we can achieve a higher ROE than the around 9.5%.

Even -- I mean, just to give you an example, even this year, if there was El Nino, we would have outperformed clearly that 19.5% and probably would have been above the 20% mark. So our ability to generate returns today is higher than the number we gave on a stable situation, I mean, taking away specific things like El Nino. So we thought it was the right thing to basically give a more realistic number on what we can achieve. In the coming years.

Unknown Executive

Yes. And Carlos, this is [indiscernible] on the spot. We also are a more -- a less leveraged company. So the risk of [indiscernible] lower than a few years before current liquidity ratio was in single digits. So -- but we're confident that the 22% is more than achievable.

Operator

The next question will come from Yuri Fernandes with JPMorgan.

Yuri Fernandes

I have -- and congrats also on the quarter, pretty good 20% despite the additional provisions. I have a curious about the quarter here on other income especially the noncore income. It moved up a lot this quarter, some 40% quarter-over-quarter. So if you can explain what drove it? I guess, on your comments in the automation effects, maybe secure mark-to-market. So what drove this? Is this client activity? Should this be more recurring? Or should we see a normalization of this other income line?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes, sure. So basically, I would say it's come from a lot of different sources as we increment this principality, we've been talking about there's more transactional fees that we generate both at BCP, Yape. I mentioned FX as a driver also which has been growing for the last few years. It had a very good return due to the volatility related to elections, but we still believe it can continue to have very strong results going forward. And in general, again, as we move further down with our strategy to increase principality we are getting a larger share of fees in the market, and we expected that to continue. And that's why we -- I mentioned earlier, we're now achieving the guidance that we're talking about high teens or mid- to high teens expected growth there. And we believe that should continue going forward.

Yuri Fernandes

No, super clear. And if I may, a second one here guys, just on cost and efficiency, could we see for the 22 ROE cost to income be much better? Because I know today, expenses and revenues, they are growing somewhat at a similar pace, but you are accelerating on growth you are pretty confident with risk-adjusted margins. I know you have your new initiatives, 350 bps guidance for cost-to-income headwind. But I don't know, could we start to see expenses slowing down? And maybe efficiency become a powerful tailwind for you?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes, the short answer is yes. This number hasn't changed when we were -- in October of last year, we talked about the mid-term cost-to-income closer to 3%. We are expecting to go in that direction, our view of the market takes in that direction as our innovation scale, Gianfranco mentioned, today, the innovation portfolio is positive in but it has around 300 basis points of drag on cost to income that is going to change as Yape scaling and goes from its current cost to income, which is higher than BTP and going below those numbers. more kind of like large neo banks. So all in all, what we see going forward is an improvement in the operating leverage. So basically, income growing much faster than expenses and going to be around 40% cost-to-income in the midterm.

Operator

The next question will come from Julianna Ohara with Goldman Sachs.

Unknown Analyst

Congratulations on your results. I just have a quick follow-up on a comment you made earlier. I think you mentioned you're adjusting your portfolios based on what you're seeing for El Nino. I just wanted to know if you could share A bit more color is that would have some mix impact into NIM and your asset quality expectations. Thank you.

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes. Thank you. The change is actually in the origination mix in specific areas. So we continue improvement in general, but identifying areas that are going to be more severely impacted as it meets with the profile of the clients. We adjust lowering the risk appetite temporarily in this segment. So temporarily, we are going to have, let's say, a less pronounced change in the mix of the portfolio, but the general trend continues.

Unknown Executive

Maybe I'll just add [indiscernible], as I mentioned in the guidance, we -- this is a -- we are expecting this year to have around 12% loan growth. So again, it's going to be a very strong year, where we might see a little bit of a lower loan growth is in 2027 when all the things that said mentioning will take place. Again, the main effect of El Nino are expected to be in 2027, and that could mean probably a little bit of a lower rate of growth in loans.

Operator

The next question will come from Andres Soto with Santander.

Andres Soto

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for the presentation. I have two questions. The first one is a follow-up on the El Nino provisions. I understand you guys do a new assessment by the end of third quarter, the beginning of the fall on, but I would like to understand from your guidance for the full year, how much of additional provisions are you already considering for El Nino? Is it going to be similar to this quarter, we added 30 bps to the cost of rates, it's going to be higher, lower? Any color there will be helping.

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Andres, this is Alejandro. The main color I'll give is that what we're expecting is to remain within guidance even with a severe line case. So I mean, we still don't know how far it's going to get, but given the dynamics we've seen this year where we were coming on the lower end of the guidance, what would probably happen is that we'll move towards the middle to higher end of the guidance, but stay within guidance even with the full provisioning of a severe need.

Andres Soto

Okay. That helps. My second question is on Yape lending. We saw a significant acceleration this quarter I would like to understand this acceleration is coming from increasing the balances for your existing customers as you exchange duration? Or is it coming from new customers? Or is already reflecting the lending initiatives with SMEs within Japan.

Francesca Raffo Paine

So it's actually coming from both. As you have heard us, we start Yape with a mono quota, a mono installment. And then once we know your behavior, we go into a multi-installment, we do this for SME and for individuals. The growth is today primarily in individuals just because the SME is a little further behind. We started later. So we're seeing growth on both sides. And what we are seeing as well is recurrent in customers, so repayment and a secondary loan a third loan and we are seeing ticket growth and also term growth. Those contribute both on the loan portfolio side and of course, on.

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

So this is still gradual. This is very slow, but this is what we're seeing on both segments.

Andres Soto

At some point, you mentioned what is the potential number of customers that you could reach via lending. Do you have any update to that number based on the performance that you have achieved over the past few quarters?

Francesca Raffo Paine

Yes. So Yape, as you know, has a base of over 160 million. You've heard that credit penetration in Peru is still low. We have today reached over 5 million customers through a loan, and the portfolio is around, I would say, we disbursed around 2 million loans -- so the growth rate here is important. We don't have a set target in terms of like 50% of Yape customers should have a loan or anything like that. But of course, we feel because of the product and the type of customer we serve. This is going to be a large scale in terms of loans. Small loans, again, this is not going into high loans, that's more BCP and more Bianco. This is very long short launch and shorter term as well. So growth should be expected.

Operator

The next question will come from Alvaro Galicia, Private Investor.

Unknown Analyst

Well, you've just upgraded your medium-term ROE target to an impressive 22% driven by structural improvements and digital monetization. However, you also mentioned that the strongest impact of El Nino will likely materialize in Q1 2027. And a severe scenario could pressure along growth and fee income. Realistically, how much of that 22% of ROE guidance is at risk [indiscernible] shifts from a mantle shock to a severe even later this year. And what is the specific cost of risk threshold that would force you to work back in this new profitability target?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

This is Alejandro. So when we talk about the midterm ROE, we're talking an ROE for the next 2 to 3 years. and we believe it is completely this mentioning, we are not necessarily expressing a specific guidance for 2027, which would, of course, be impacted by a severe El Nino and good potentially 2027, we could guide for a lower ROE than the 22%. Again, we're not saying anything as of now. but it doesn't change our expectation of achieving this 22% midterm ROE at all. It would just have a shorter-term impact. the same with loan growth. I mean we're expecting double-digit loan growth for the coming years, not necessarily the -- it's not necessarily going to be the case in 2027, depending on how severe El Nino happens to be.

Operator

The next question will come from Alonso Aramburu with BTG.

Alonso Aramburú

Yes. Just following that on a little bit on Alvino as well. How are you thinking about dividends, potential extraordinary dividends for the second half of the year? And maybe if I can ask about on a separate -- on a different way, if it's a severe El Nino what's the amount of provisions that you think you can -- you will have to book this year? Is it 500 million? Is it 1 billion? Maybe if you can provide a figure for that?

Alejandro Perez-Reyes

Yes. You mean the total provision? Yes. So again, we are not providing a number because, as was mentioned earlier, this is information that gated to our model and comes out with a certain number that we will include and we'll give more color as we put more provisions into the numbers. But again, as I mentioned, we are expecting to remain in guidance even in the case of a severe El Nino from what we see today.

So again, without giving a number, just to give you some color, imagine us going up to the upper side of our guidance, and that should give you a sense of what could end up happening, but it's going to depend on information that keeps coming in the coming weeks and months.

Unknown Executive

Yes. And maybe also. On the dividend question, we believe that we are very well capitalized. So the potential provisions or additional provisions because of our very strong Nino shouldn't affect the extraordinary dividend that we may pay this year because actually, we're paying profits that were generated last year. So yes, that's it.

Operator

It appears there are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Gianfranco Ferrari, Chief Executive Officer, for closing remarks.

Gianfranco Piero Ferrari de Las Casas

Thank you. As we close today's discussion, I want to come back to the main message I shared at the beginning of the call. We have greater confidence in Peru's medium-term outlook, and Credicorp is well positioned to capture the opportunities ahead. The results we discussed today, together with the updated medium-term ROE expectations we shared reflect that only a more constructive operating environment but also the structural progress we've made across our ecosystem.

Credicorp today has a deeper customer relationship, stronger digital capabilities, disciplined risk management and a more scalable business model. Importantly, our growth remains anchored in our purpose, improving lives by helping people and business drive. That purpose guides how we invest expand financial inclusion and support our customers and communities through changing conditions. We believe in Peru, and we believe Credicorp has an important role in shaping its future. Every day, we have the privilege of helping millions of people and businesses move forward, and there is no way of opportunity than that.

Before closing, I want to thank Alejandro for his partnership and leadership as CFO. I look forward to continuing to work closely with him in his new role being our microfinance business and Mibanco Peru. I also want to welcome Ignacio, who will join us as CFO and will be with us on next quarter's call. Thank you all for joining us today.

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's presentation. You may now disconnect.