Trump may allow China to buy a scaled-down version of Nvidia’s Blackwell chip

Congress is reacting like the White House is about to give away the launch codes. Lawmakers in both parties now say Donald Trump could end up sending China one of America’s most powerful AI chips, even if it is a scaled-down model.

This is about the Nvidia Blackwell system, the chip that is supposed to keep the U.S. ahead in AI computing power. When the idea came up that China might get a downgraded version of it, the reaction in Washington was instant and loud.

House Select Committee on China Chairman John Moolenaar said selling Nvidia’s top AI hardware to China “would be akin to giving Iran weapons grade uranium.” He said on X that he made it clear to the administration that, “we cannot sell the latest advanced AI chips to our country’s primary adversary.”

Moolenaar added that these chips should go to “U.S. companies that are building American AI dominance for years to come, not the future of the Chinese military.”

The warning came right after Trump suggested he might allow Nvidia to sell a weaker version of the Blackwell chip, known as the B30A, to China.

Congress presses Trump not to lift export limits

U.S. trade officials and national security analysts say that exporting even a scaled-down model could break the entire U.S. export control strategy that started in 2022. Those restrictions were built to block Beijing’s military from benefiting from American AI breakthroughs.

They were also intended to slow down China’s AI growth curve. Now, experts argue that if the B30A is approved for China, the U.S. would lose the core advantage it currently holds in AI computing power.

Tim Fist, co-author of a recent analysis on the chip, said, “If we decide to export B30As, it would dramatically shrink the U.S.’s main advantage it currently has over China in AI.” He explained that the B30A is basically the same Blackwell chip but in different packaging.

In his words, China could simply buy twice as many and get the same computing output, likely at the same price.

Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer and 11 other Democratic senators also urged Trump to avoid lifting the chip restrictions as part of any trade negotiation with President Xi.

Analysts lay out best and worst outcomes

The analysis from Fist and his co-authors examined nine export scenarios. In the best case, where no powerful chips are exported to China next year, the United States would maintain 30 times China’s AI computing power.

In the worst case, if the U.S. allows exports of B30A chips and similar products from other U.S. firms, China could gain enough computing power to surpass the United States by 2026. Even the middle scenario shows the U.S. advantage shrinking down to only four times China’s capacity.

Fist, who is the director of emerging technology policy at the Institute for Progress, said, “If any meaningful quantities are allowed, it’s a huge change.” He argued that allowing these chips to ship would be “functionally ending the export control regime that we have today.”

Chris McGuire, a national security and technology analyst who worked in the U.S. State Department until last summer, echoed the same view. He said, “If this chip is allowed to go, there are effectively no AI chip export controls anymore.”

Chris added that the reason the U.S. leads in AI now is because it leads in chips and computing power. If that advantage is traded away, “best case is, it’s like a tie. Worst case, we fall behind.”

“We would be trading China our most advanced technology for soybean purchases,” said Chris.

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