Bitcoin and Ether face volatility as $5.3B options expire

Another weekly options expiry may bring volatility for BTC and ETH. A total of $5.3B in notional value is expiring on Friday, higher than last week’s contracts. 

BTC and ETH options for a total of $5.3B in notional value are expiring on Friday. Deribit’s weekly event once again may bring volatility to the price. Last Friday’s expiry led to lower selling pressures, allowing BTC to set a new price record above $126,000. 

Ahead of the expiry, however, the price of assets may fluctuate as traders push BTC and ETH to maximum pain expiry. For BTC, that level is at $117,000, while for ETH the maximum pain is at $4,400. Those price levels may lead to shifts in BTC and ETH at the last moment until the expiry time.

🚨 Options Expiry Alert 🚨
Over $5.3B in crypto options are set to expire tomorrow.$BTC: $4.3B notional | Put/Call: 1.12 | Max Pain: $117K$ETH: $0.94B notional | Put/Call: 0.9 | Max Pain: $4,400

BTC traders are split between $110K puts and $120K calls, while ETH flows are more… pic.twitter.com/IgzyHTtBEv

— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) October 9, 2025

Ahead of the options expiry, BTC is once again at a crossroad, with options traders split in their predictions between $110,000 and $120,000. Deribit open interest has rebuilt again at over $36B in the month so far, potentially pointing to another large expiry event at the end of October. 

Open interest has been accumulating faster in the past few weeks, as options trading gains more popularity. In addition to Deribit, IBIT activity is also rising, while the CME is expected to launch 24/7 crypto futures and options in 2026. 

IBIT and Deribit show disparity in risk positions

IBIT options have taken up market share from Deribit since the start of 2025. The options platform shows another story, once again indicating mainstream traders may be more bullish on BTC. 

On IBIT, the maximum pain is at $121,000 per BTC, with call options all the way to $238K. The biggest notional value is for call options at $123,000. 

However, Deribit options and their Friday expiry are still a major factor for swaying the market in the short term. The primacy of IBIT started in October, and is mostly linked to ETF activity and demand for hedging. 

BTC trades with greed ahead of the options expiry

BTC traded at $121,409 on Thursday, ahead of the options expiry event. This time around, the market was showing signs of greed, based on the type of trader positions. 

The Bitcoin fear and greed index shifted higher to 70 points, up 10 points within a single day. The greed and market direction suggest BTC may continue its rally following the options expiry. 

Greed trading coincides with long positions, which are also at a threat of liquidation. The recent downturn wiped out the available long liquidity, with a possible dip to $120,000 or below. 

On the upside, BTC is slowly rebuilding short liquidity, with a big accumulation of positions at $125,000. 

ETH was still pressured at $4,350.50, as the token usually posted bigger losses after a BTC downturn. ETH is also liquidating long positions into the $4,300 range, but also has a liquidity cluster at $4,600 and may move fast following the options expiration.

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