EUR: A little more room to correct – ING

The components of yesterday's US January PPI release which read over to the core PCE deflator came in quite benign yesterday, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

Current correction might extend to the 1.0535/75 area

"Hence the drop in US rates and the firmer EUR/USD ahead of the tariff story. As above, the market senses some relief that tariffs were not immediate and allows a couple of months for trading partners to fine-tune strategies - be they buying a lot of US LNG, cutting their own trade barriers, or standing and fighting."

"Our best guess on EUR/USD is that this current correction might extend to the 1.0535/75 area - but that should be the extent of it. And we have a baseline forecast that EUR/USD will be pressing 1.00 in the second quarter."

"As an aside, we have been discussing the outperformance of eurozone equities and whether global rotation into Europe could help the euro. Yet when looking at flows into a popular eurozone equity ETF - the Ishares MSCI Eurozone - there have not been any strong signs of that rotation. This is perhaps another reason why the EUR/USD correction will peter out above 1.05."