USD/JPY: Tariff hit may complicate JPY direction of travel – OCBC

USD/JPY rose this morning, tracking the rise in USD on tariff concerns. USD/JPY was last seen at 152.04 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rebound risks likely in the interim

“Trump announced plan to impose 25% tariff on all steel and aluminium imports and mentioned introducing reciprocal tariffs on all nations. This may imply that Japan maybe implicated. When it comes to automobile, Japanese cars are amongst the top 5 most popular in US and Korean cars make it to the top 10 list. On agricultural products, Japan has a high tariff rate of 204.3% for rice and 23.3% for meat.”

“The risk is a direct tariff hit on Japanese goods and JPY may come under pressure in this scenario. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is turning higher from near oversold conditions. Rebound risks likely in the interim. Resistance at 152.70/80 levels (100, 200 DMAs), 154.30 levels. Support at 151.50 (38.2% fibo retracement of Sep low to Jan high), 150 levels.”