Markets continue to imply another RBNZ 50bps rate cut in February – Société Générale

NZD/USD is consolidating recent gains triggered by broad USD weakness, Société Générale's FX analysts note.  

NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD

"New Zealand labor market conditions further weakened in Q4, largely matching expectations. The unemployment rate rose three ticks to a four-year high at 5.1% (consensus & RBNZ: 5.1%). Employment dipped -0.1% q/q (consensus: -0.2%, RBNZ: -0.3%) vs. -0.6% in Q3 (revised down from -0.5%). Private sector wages grew 0.6% q/q (consensus: 0.6%, RBNZ: 0.5%) vs. 0.6% in Q3."

"In line with RBNZ guidance, markets continue to imply another 50bps rate cut to 3.75% at the February 19 meeting and the policy rate to through around 3.00% over the next 12 months. Bottom line: NZ-US 2-year bond yield spreads can further weigh on NZD/USD."