GBP underperforms after weak Retail Sales data – Scotiabank

FXStreetJan 17, 2025 2:56 PM

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The Pound Sterling (GBP) is down on the day and is all but unchanged over a week when most of its peers have managed to grind out a gain on the USD, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

GBP is little changed on the week

"UK Retail Sales fell 0.6% in December, significantly weaker than consensus estimates (+0.3%). November data were revised lower as well. The data suggest UK growth stalled (at best) in Q4."

"Markets continue to price in a near certain (23bps) chance of a rate cut in February and have added to expectations for easing over the coming year. But a total of 66bps priced in through next December still looks a bit too light. BoE Governor Bailey speaks at 16ET."

"GBP slipped out of a minor uptrend from the mid-week low yesterday but losses failed to develop. The GBP is little changed on the week but that may mean that the recent downtrend has stalled at 1.21. A positive week for the GBP next week will lift technical prospects."

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