EUR: Some signs of rebound, but it may not last – ING

FXStreetJan 15, 2025 9:42 AM

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The USD-negative events yesterday have prompted a return to 1.030 in EUR/USD, but US CPI is expected to resume pressure on the pair. The eurozone data calendar does not include market-moving releases, although we will hear from ECB members, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Technical aspect for EUR/USD is relatively supportive

"Our short-term fair value model returns a risk premium of around 2.5% on the pair. That is intuitively linked to expectations of US protectionism, and we doubt there is that much room for this valuation gap to be closed despite the latest reports on gradual tariffs."

"Still, we cannot ignore this relatively supportive technical aspect for EUR/USD, and probably another material leg lower in the pair does require some rewidening in the short-term rate differential. A 0.3% MoM US core CPI read could not be enough to take EUR/USD sustainably above 1.020 for now."

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