EUR diverges further from spreads & fair value – Scotiabank

FXStreetJan 9, 2025 1:34 PM

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The Euro (EUR) perked up a little yesterday after finding support in the upper 1.02 region but it is finding the going tough against the USD and marginal gains earlier in the session have reversed, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

EUR looks technically soft

“Tariff concerns remain a drag on the EUR. Spot is clearly diverging from (more EUR-supportive) spreads to trade one standard deviation below our fair value estimate (1.0546) currently.”

“The EUR’s early week failure to press on above 1.0450 remains a weak feature on the short-term charts. The market has consolidated around 1.03 over the past day or so and does seem to draw firm demand on dips under the figure. But trend momentum is bearish and a retest of 1.0225/30 remains likely. Resistance is 1.0325 and 1.0450.”

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