Redwire Stock Is Down 42% Over the Last Year. Trading Under $10, Is Now the Time to Buy the Stock?

Space Exploration Technologies brought excitement to the space sector ahead of its initial public offering (IPO). But when the hype wore off, some space stocks fell back down to Earth.

Since SpaceX began trading to the public on June 12, the stock price of space and defense tech company Redwire (NYSE: RDW) plummeted 43% from July 12 to July 20. It's still up more than 20% in 2026, but over the last year, shares have dropped over 42%.

There's a bullish case that any significant pullbacks, like the one we've seen since June, could be a buying opportunity. Still, there are a few issues to factor in before making an investment decision.

Image source: Getty Images.

The upside of Redwire

Redwire helps make space missions possible through its antennas, power generation, trackers, and camera systems. That helps give its products an essential nature in the space industry. But its most unique operations are in providing space-based research and manufacturing capabilities for endeavors ranging from regenerative medicine to crop production.

Its revenue in its space division is flat, but it's making up for that by capturing increasing sales through its defense segment.

Data source: Redwire Q1 2026 Investor Presentation

In the first quarter of 2026, Redwire also reported a record backlog of nearly $500 million, indicating increasing demand for its products and services. That appears to be reflected in Redwire's 2026 full-year revenue forecast; it reported around $335 million in revenue in 2025 and expects 2026's total to fall in a range of $450 million to $500 million.

What keeps weighing on the stock

Redwire experienced a sell-off after SpaceX went public, but issues had been brewing before then. One was shareholders worried about dilution when Redwire announced in June that it was selling up to $500 million in common stock.

Another concern is growing losses. For 2025, Redwire reported net losses increased by $112.2 million to $226.6 million, and it already reported a net loss of $76.5 million in the first quarter of 2026.

In addition, while its backlog is a proof point of growing demand, Redwire still needs to convert that backlog into actual revenue. If it can't start chipping away at the backlog, it would likely have to keep issuing new stock if it finds itself in a tight financial position. At the end of the first quarter of 2026, Redwire reported total liquidity of $175.2 million.

Redwire shows some long-term promise, but I'd still be comfortable sitting on the sidelines until it cuts down on its losses and starts turning more of that backlog into revenue.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.