SpaceX Stock Price Forecast: Can Shares Recover From Undervalued Market Cap?

Although SpaceX still faces massive lock-up expiration pressure, bearish expectations have been gradually priced into the current stock price after continuous declines to new lows.

While bearish voices still dominate the market, with some investors even believing the stock price could slide further to $100, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that if the stock price indeed falls to $100, it would imply that the market's valuation of SpaceX's AI business drops to zero or even negative, while the implied expectations for the 2028 EBITDA of the rocket launch and Starlink business would be about 30% below the firm's base-case forecast.

The firm stated that although there have been no major changes in SpaceX's fundamentals over the past few weeks, the conviction of bears has instead gradually strengthened, while bulls are increasingly inclined to wait for clearer catalysts. The divergence between the current pessimistic sentiment and fundamentals constitutes an attractive entry point; at a price point below $120, investors are getting the option value of the company's entire AI business almost "for free," while the core rocket launch and Starlink business itself already covers the current stock price. The firm maintains its "Overweight" rating on SpaceX with a price target of $300.

On the other hand, although the booster failed to achieve a perfect recovery during the 13th test flight of SpaceX's Starship, the mission significantly boosted market confidence. This test flight demonstrated that SpaceX completed key verification milestones, including the deployment of next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, an in-orbit engine restart, and its smoothest ocean splashdown to date, marking an important step forward for the Starship system toward full reusability.

Morgan Stanley believes that if Starship's 14th test flight can achieve a direct catch of the spacecraft's upper stage by the launch tower, it will serve as the next key catalyst driving up SpaceX's valuation.

SpaceX's stock price continues to hit new lows, and the market is also flooded with bearish sentiment. For example, Peter Schiff, co-founder of Echelon Wealth Partners, warned not to rush into investing in the hype surrounding a particular stock.

However, several Wall Street investment banks remain generally optimistic about SpaceX's prospects, collectively giving it a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy." As of now, a total of 30 analysts have forecasted SpaceX's stock price over the next year in the past three months, with an average target price of $239.04, and the highest target price of $800 still representing an upside potential of approximately 627% from the current price.

The lowest target price is $115, while the current stock price of $110 is already below the lowest target price set by all analysts, equivalent to falling below the institutional consensus "conservative valuation floor." Even if fundamentals only meet the most conservative expectations, the stock price still has the momentum for a natural recovery, falling into a bottom risk-reward range of "limited downside risk and ample upward elasticity."

The collective high expectations from analysts are essentially a bet on SpaceX's two-tiered growth value. First is the baseline cash flow value: the Falcon rocket's global launch market share ranks firmly first, and Starlink satellite internet users and revenues continue to climb, already forming stable operating cash flows, which is the core support for the valuation floor.

Second is the upper-tier growth option: the commercialization of the fully reusable Starship heavy rocket, the explosion of Starlink's global B2B/B2C businesses, and the long-term prospects for deep space exploration and Mars infrastructure are the core reasons why the upper limit of the target price has been pushed to $800, representing a valuation premium for "non-linear growth."

Under current conditions, the likelihood of SpaceX's stock price reaching $239 within the next year is slim, unless it can prove the sustainable profitability of its AI division (which includes xAI's computing infrastructure, the Grok large language model, and X platform's advertising and subscription revenue) in its upcoming earnings report on August 4.

SpaceX stock price chart, Source: TradingView

From a technical perspective, the current stock price broke below its local low ($107) again, but quickly recovered and turned upward thereafter, indicating that bulls still have the desire to launch a counterattack.

Currently, the focus should be on the strength of the rebound, with the cluster of moving averages above ($111-$115) serving as the first resistance level. If the stock price successfully breaks through, it is expected to challenge the Fibonacci 0.236 level ($122.44), which would further open up upside potential to the $132-$140 range. It should be noted that any rebound that fails to surpass this level can only be viewed as a bearish continuation.

Conversely, if the stock price continues to hit new lows, it will mean the start of a new round of decline, with the psychological round number of $100 becoming the next target, representing a potential downside of approximately 8%. Considering the current strong bearish momentum, a break below the $100 psychological level could accelerate the decline toward $90 or even $80.

This content was translated using AI and reviewed for clarity. It is for informational purposes only.