SG Morning Brief | Chips Crash Again as Hormuz Attack, Iran Waiver Revoked, Samsung Selloff Converge

US Overnight

The S&P 500 fell 0.45% to 7,503.85, the Nasdaq dropped 1.16% to 25,818.69, and the Dow lost 130.76 points (-0.25%) to 52,925.15. Three separate catalysts converged to pummel the chip sector: Iran attacked a Qatari LNG tanker near the Strait of Hormuz, the US Treasury revoked the waiver that had authorized Iranian oil sales, and Samsung Electronics fell 8.2% in Seoul despite beating Q2 profit estimates as investors took profits and questioned AI demand sustainability. Brent crude settled up 3% at $74.16 before extending to above $75 after the waiver revocation. WTI gained nearly 3% to $70.44 and continued rising. The British maritime agency UKMTO raised the Hormuz threat level to "severe." The Samsung reaction was telling: CNBC noted that "Q2 earnings results are likely to be quite robust on an absolute basis," but the market is no longer rewarding beats — it is demanding accelerating guidance. SpaceX traded its first full session as a Nasdaq-100 component.

Key Movers

Intel (INTC) -10% / Teradyne (TER) -10% — Intel fell 9.66% to $110.39 and Teradyne dropped 9.59% to $343.11, extending the pattern from last week where semi equipment and foundry names are falling harder than chip designers. The SOX dropped 4.9% while the memory chip sub-index lost 6.8%. When equipment makers lead the selloff, the market is questioning capex sustainability — not just memory pricing.

Memory: Marvell -7% / WDC -7% / SanDisk -7%+ — The Samsung contagion hit every memory name. Samsung's Q2 operating profit beat estimates, but revenue landed mid-range and a provision for employee bonuses worth 10.5% of business earnings spooked investors. Analysts at InvestingLive noted that leveraged ETFs may have amplified the selloff's magnitude.

Meta (META) +3% — Meta rose 2.55%, leading the Magnificent Seven, after launching an AI image generation product. Nvidia bucked the chip selloff with a 0.71% gain — a notable divergence that suggests the market views Nvidia's AI moat as distinct from the broader semiconductor correction.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The Hormuz attack and Iran waiver revocation are directly negative for Singapore: oil jumping back above $74 reverses the disinflation tailwind that had been building since mid-June. The Samsung selloff despite a profit beat is a warning for Venture Corp and local tech names heading into earnings season. Banks may benefit if rate hike odds revive on higher oil.

Asia Pre-Market

Brent above $75 and WTI above $72 mark a meaningful reversal from last week's $69 lows. The "severe" Hormuz threat designation could keep oil elevated. KOSPI fell 4% on Samsung's sell-the-beat reaction. The tone heading into Wednesday is risk-off, with the FOMC minutes tonight and June CPI tomorrow creating a double catalyst window.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Tomorrow: June CPI (8:30 AM ET / 8:30 PM UTC+8). Q2 earnings season starts July 13 (JPM/WFC/C).

Data Spotlight: FOMC Minutes + CPI Double Header — Tonight's FOMC minutes from Warsh's first meeting will reveal the debate behind the 9-of-18 dot plot shift toward hikes and the PCE forecast jump to 3.6%. The minutes were drafted before the Iran waiver revocation, so any hawkish language about oil-driven inflation will gain fresh relevance. Tomorrow's June CPI is the main event: May was 4.2% with oil at $95. Oil averaged roughly $72 in June, so headline CPI should decelerate — the question is by how much. A drop below 4% would be a significant psychological milestone.

One More Thing

Samsung beat earnings and fell 8%. That is the template for the next two weeks. Q2 earnings season begins Monday with JPMorgan, and the semiconductor reports follow — TSMC on July 17, ASML on July 22. If the market is selling Samsung after a profit beat, it will sell any chip name that merely meets expectations. Only an upside surprise in guidance moves the needle now. The 88% Q2 rally set the bar impossibly high. The SOX has now fallen four of the last five sessions after Monday's one-day bounce, suggesting the dip-buying conviction is fading. The paradox of success: the better Q2 was, the harder Q3 becomes.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.