Pop Mart Drops After Bernstein Warns Results May Disappoint

Pop Mart shares slipped 2.2% in Hong Kong after analysts at Bernstein warned that the Labubu-maker’s fourth-quarter results could be a disappointment.

“Multiple independent data sources indicate broad-based demand deterioration in both China and overseas markets during October, with weakness intensifying from peak levels in June,” Bernstein analysts including Melinda Hu wrote in a note dated Nov. 11.

“The convergence of weakening transaction data, social media engagement, and search interest across independent sources paints a picture of fundamental demand deceleration difficult to dismiss as noise or channel shifts,” they added.

Bernstein’s comments amplify recent concerns about the Beijing-based firm’s long-term sales outlook as doubts grow over the sustainability of the frenzied demand seen for its toothy plush toys — especially the Labubu doll. Such worries have persisted even as the firm reported third-quarter sales growth of as much as 250% year-on-year.

Concerns over the outlook as well as profit-taking have led to the unraveling a rally that made the toymaker’s stock the hottest trade in China’s consumer sector. It is down almost 40% since reaching a record high in late August, wiping out $20 billion in market value.

Bernstein holds the sole underperform rating among more than 40 brokerages covering Pop Mart, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

“The magnitude and consistency of October declines across all metrics suggest Q4 results could disappoint expectations,” the analysts wrote. They maintained their price target of HK$225 for the stock, which is still up about 140% this year.