Meta Stock Forecast: Muse Monetization Path Is Key as JPMorgan Raises Price Target to $920; Can Stock Hit Record High?

TradingKey - On September 24, Eastern Time, Meta Platforms (META) hit an intraday stock price of $777.89, setting a new high in nearly a year.

Following the Meta Connect conference, JPMorgan raised the company's price target from $820 to $920 while maintaining an Overweight rating. The primary driver is the increasingly clear monetization path for Muse, making the bank more optimistic about Meta's growth upside beyond advertising.

Zuckerberg stated at the conference that Meta will charge a small transaction fee for transactions completed through Muse in the future. Currently, Muse's monetization scale remains limited, possibly involving only a small number of heavy-use subscriptions. Taking a transaction cut implies that its revenue stream is expected to expand from user subscriptions to platform-facilitated commercial activities, though the actual scale remains to be realized.

Muse Connector is key to implementing this model. The platform has received over 2,000 integration applications, added partners such as Walmart, and opened APIs to developers. The onboarding of merchants and services provides the foundation for Muse to facilitate transactions, though application numbers do not equal actual transaction revenue.

JPMorgan expects that more merchants may deploy AI agents on Muse in the future to complete transactions through agent-to-agent interactions. Meta could either take a cut based on transaction value or price services around merchants' operational goals. The bank believes this shares a similar underlying logic with the existing advertising business, laying the groundwork for scalable replication.

Model capabilities relate to another revenue stream. JPMorgan anticipates that the frontier model, Watermelon, will be released in the coming weeks, which will enhance Muse's product performance while expanding the commercial footprint of the Meta Model API. If offered at prices significantly lower than competitors, it could attract developers and enterprises to increase API calls. Hardware serves as a gateway expansion tool. Meta has shifted Reality Labs' focus toward wearable devices serving Muse and personal superintelligence, viewing smart glasses as the largest hardware opportunity. The new smart glasses and handheld device Muse Charm provide more user touchpoints for AI services.

These expectations are ultimately reflected in valuation. Based on estimated 2028 GAAP earnings per share of $35.44, JPMorgan raised the valuation multiple from 23x to approximately 26x. This indicates that the bank is willing to assign a higher valuation premium for growth visibility and AI monetization prospects.

However, expansion comes with financial pressure. The bank projects Meta's revenue to grow from $254.3 billion in 2026 to $354.4 billion in 2028. Impacted by massive capital expenditures, free cash flow is expected to remain negative from 2026 to 2028, with capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue projected to rise to around 80% in 2027 and 2028.

Meta weekly chart, Source: TradingView

Looking at Meta's stock chart, the current price has reclaimed the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level ($737.19) and is approaching the previous high of $796.25. The current movement represents another push near the previous peak, with buyers taking short-term control.

Technically, the weekly upward momentum has accelerated recently, with the price reclaiming Fibonacci retracement levels step by step and breaking away from the previous cluster of moving averages. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are turning upward, while the 20-day moving average remains slightly below the 80-day moving average, signaling a strengthening short-term trend though mid-term moving averages have not yet formed a complete bullish alignment. The price for the week closed near its weekly high, confirming it remains at elevated levels post-breakout, though sustainability must be validated by the weekly close. Holding above the 0.786 retracement level on a weekly close will keep the upward structure intact; failing to do so will signal weakening.

Key support levels from near to far are divided into three tiers: the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level ($690.82) is adjacent to the previous rebound high zone; the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level ($658.26) overlaps with the platform region of previous consolidations; and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level ($625.69) sits right next to the 20-day moving average ($626.40) and 80-day moving average ($627.31), forming a concentrated technical support area below.

The primary upside resistance remains the previous high; once broken and sustained, the 1.272 Fibonacci extension level ($871.32) will be the next key level to watch.

The primary risk is a weekly close back below the 0.786 retracement level without a quick recovery, in which case downside risk would target the 0.618 retracement support, invalidating the current bullish momentum thesis. A secondary risk is a brief breakout above the previous high followed by a rapid retreat, failing to hold the breakout level on the weekly chart and creating a false breakout, which would undermine expectations for further advances toward the extension level.