Should You Buy Palantir After Its 280% Gain This Year? Wall Street Says This.

Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR) was once known as a software-as-a-service company that did most of its business with the government. But in recent times, the company, along with increasing its revenue from government contracts, has also seen its commercial business growth explode. How did this long-established player suddenly supercharge its revenue? Well, it's a combination of the platform Palantir built over its 20-year history and its more recent jump into artificial intelligence (AI).

In fact, thanks to Palantir's launch of its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) last year, we could call the company one of the early winners of the AI boom. Demand for AIP has taken off, and earnings have followed, with the company recently reporting its highest quarterly profit ever. So, it's no surprise investors have flocked to the shares, driving them up more than 280% this year.

After this sort of performance and an increase in valuation, though, you may wonder whether it's too late to get in on this growth story. Should you buy Palantir right now? Let's consider what Wall Street has to say.

Image source: Getty Images.

Using data to make game-changing decisions

First, though, let's talk a bit about Palantir's path so far. Through its platform, the company helps customers aggregate their data and use it to make better decisions. The results could be game-changing, helping companies, for example, become more efficient and achieve huge cost savings or even launch new products and services. And AIP, harnessing the power of AI, has become particularly popular among government and commercial customers.

This has resulted in double-digit revenue growth for Palantir and impressive trends in the commercial business. Just four years ago, the company had 14 U.S. commercial customers, and today, it has grown that to nearly 300. This is compelling for two reasons. The pace of growth shows Palantir's platform greatly interests these customers, and the number of commercial customers today leaves plenty of room for growth well into the future.

What we can see in figures from the recent quarter also supports the idea of growth now and down the road. In the three-month period, Palantir's U.S. commercial revenue soared 54%, and U.S. government revenue rose 40%. This shows the strength of the company's new growth driver -- the commercial business -- as well as the government business it's relied on for years.

So, Palantir is firing on all cylinders, and we could expect this to continue since AIP's launch was rather recent. Forecasts show the general AI market has much growth ahead. Analysts expect today's $200 billion AI market to reach $1 trillion by the end of the decade.

Palantir's $1 million deals

Palantir has also spoken of high demand for AIP, and deal values are increasing. In the recent quarter, the company has closed more than 100 deals with a value greater than $1 million.

All of these points are positive and may encourage investors to get in on the stock now. But Wall Street isn't so optimistic about the share performance to come. The average analyst estimate calls for the stock to drop 40% from today's level over the coming 12 months, and most analysts have a hold recommendation on the shares.

This isn't necessarily due to a loss of faith in the company -- it's more about valuation. This year's gains have left Palantir trading for 175 times forward earnings estimates, a level that may look pretty steep -- even for a growth stock. So, Wall Street doesn't recommend buying Palantir right now.

Now, the big question is: Should you follow Wall Street's advice? No one can predict stock performance with 100% certainty, but the current valuation may limit Palantir's near-term performance -- and the stock might not deliver outsize gains in the weeks and months ahead. Investors who are very cautious or focused on value probably shouldn't pile into Palantir right now.

That said, earnings projections used in the above valuation measure don't consider earnings a few years down the road. Palantir's future looks bright, and the company seems to be on the path to long-term revenue and profit growth. This means that even after Palantir's triple-digit gain this year, the stock still has plenty of room to run over the long term, making it a great AI stock for growth investors to buy now.

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Adria Cimino has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.