Eli Lilly Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook as Q3 Sales Rise 39%

Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) raised its 2026 revenue forecast after third-quarter sales climbed 39%, as higher prescription volumes for Mounjaro, Zepbound and other incretin medicines outweighed lower realized pricing. The drugmaker now expects full-year revenue of $91 billion to $92 billion, up from its previous range of $85 billion to $87 billion.

Revenue reached $24.40 billion in the third quarter of 2026. Worldwide volume growth contributed 53 percentage points, while pricing reduced growth by 15 points and foreign exchange had no net effect. Incretin revenue increased 54%, driven by market expansion and higher global share.

Reported net income rose 16% to $6.45 billion, while reported earnings per share increased 16% to $7.22. On a non-GAAP basis, net income grew 6% to $6.68 billion and EPS rose 7% to $7.48. The quarter included a $4.2 billion pretax acquired in-process research and development charge, equal to $4.57 per share.

Non-GAAP operating income increased 15% to $9.04 billion even as adjusted operating expenses rose 68% to $11.55 billion. Lilly reported a non-GAAP gross margin of 84.4%, up 0.8 percentage point, and a performance margin of 54.2%, an increase of 5.9 percentage points.

Mounjaro and Zepbound lead growth

Revenue from Lilly’s designated key products rose 62% to $17.1 billion. Combined key-product revenue across immunology, oncology and neuroscience doubled, while cardiometabolic medicines remained the largest growth driver.

Mounjaro sales increased by $4.2 billion from a year earlier to $10.7 billion, including $5.0 billion in the United States and $5.7 billion internationally. The company said Mounjaro extended its lead in U.S. total prescription share to 56% and continued to gain share in international incretin markets.

Zepbound revenue increased by $1.8 billion to about $5.4 billion, comprising $5.3 billion in U.S. sales and $86 million internationally. Zepbound exited the quarter with a 58% U.S. prescription share, according to the presentation.

The broader U.S. incretin analog market expanded 32% during the quarter, with Lilly holding a 63% share. Outside the United States and Puerto Rico, the branded incretin market grew 53% based on July and August data, and Lilly’s estimated share was 58.4%.

Foundayo continued to increase its share of new U.S. patient starts, exiting the quarter at about 40%. Lilly also launched the medicine in the United Arab Emirates, Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom, while regulatory reviews were underway in more than 40 countries.

The company said more than 500,000 patients were accessing its obesity medicines through its Medicare GLP-1 Bridge program. About 80% were new incretin users, and seven out of 10 patients new to the program selected a Lilly obesity medicine.

Outside cardiometabolic health, Lilly reported commercial and regulatory progress across several therapeutic areas. Ebglyss became the fastest-growing U.S. medicine for moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis, while Kisunla maintained U.S. market leadership. In oncology, Inluriyo exited the quarter with more than 60% of U.S. new-to-brand prescriptions, and the Food and Drug Administration approved Jaypirca for certain patients with first-line chronic lymphocytic leukemia or small lymphocytic lymphoma. The FDA also approved Inluriyo in combination with Verzenio for advanced breast cancer.

Guidance reflects stronger revenue and acquisition costs

Lilly raised its 2026 non-GAAP performance-margin forecast to 52.0% to 52.5% from 49.0% to 50.5%, reflecting the higher revenue outlook. The expected tax rate increased to approximately 19% to 20% from 18% to 19%, primarily because of acquired in-process research and development charges.

The company now expects non-GAAP EPS of $35.00 to $36.00, compared with its previous forecast of $35.50 to $36.50. Lilly said the updated revenue expectations added $4.07 to the midpoint before incorporating the $4.57-per-share impact of third-quarter acquired IPR&D charges.

Lilly is also expanding manufacturing capacity. During the quarter, it began construction on a $6.5 billion manufacturing site in Houston, Texas, and a $5 billion facility in Richmond, Virginia. The company completed its acquisitions of AtaiBeckley and Merida Biosciences and reported $19 billion in year-to-date business-development spending.

Pipeline advances in obesity and diabetes

In the Phase 3 TRANSCEND-T2D-2 trial, retatrutide produced greater reductions in HbA1c and body weight than Ozempic’s highest approved dose in participants with type 2 diabetes taking metformin, with or without an SGLT2 inhibitor. At 80 weeks, the 9-milligram and 12-milligram retatrutide doses reduced body weight by 20.0 kilograms and 21.4 kilograms, respectively, compared with 9.6 kilograms for Ozempic 2.0 milligrams. Treatment discontinuations due to adverse events were 5% to 8% for retatrutide and 3% for Ozempic.

A Phase 2 study of eloralintide combined with tirzepatide showed greater weight and HbA1c reductions than either therapy alone. The combination produced a 23.3% reduction in body weight and a 2.91% decline in HbA1c at 48 weeks under the efficacy estimand. Lilly said the adverse-event profile was consistent with other incretin therapies.

The company’s outlook remains subject to pharmaceutical research and development risks, competitive developments, regulatory actions, litigation and investigations, business-development activity, trade and economic conditions, and changes in healthcare laws and regulations. Lilly also identified implementation of its voluntary agreement with the U.S. government on drug pricing and access as a source of uncertainty. Investigational medicines and uses discussed in the presentation may not receive regulatory approval or become commercially available.