S&P 500: Earnings optimism versus conflict shock – Deutsche Bank

FXStreetApr 13, 2026 8:19 AM

View all comments（0）



Deutsche Bank’s strategists highlight that S&P 500 futures are lower as the Iran conflict escalates and energy prices jump, pressuring global risk sentiment. However, their US equity strategists still see a supportive macro backdrop, judging consensus expectations for mid-teens S&P 500 earnings growth as justified and even projecting stronger growth, led by megacap tech and financials into the current reporting season.

Conflict pressure meets earnings optimism

"Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning after no deal was reached in the US-Iran talks over the weekend, with the US set to blockade the Strait of Hormuz for vessels entering or departing Iranian ports."

"So despite last week’s optimism when the two-week ceasefire was announced, the mood has shifted negatively once again, with Brent crude oil prices up +7.39% this morning to $102.24/bbl. And in turn, that’s revived fears about a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground around the world."

"Against that backdrop, futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.73% this morning, whilst those on the DAX are down -1.47%, which fits with the pattern of European assets underperforming given the continent’s greater exposure to an energy shock."

"When it comes to the week ahead, clearly the Iran conflict will be the main focus, but there are a few other things to look out on the calendar. First, the Q1 earnings season will start to kick off, with this week’s releases including several US financials."

"Our US equity strategists have a full preview, and they argue that the bottom up-analyst consensus for S&P 500 earnings growth accelerating into the mid-teens (16%) is justified by a favourable macro environment."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Apple Hits Record High, Market Cap Surges to $4.9 Trillion: Why Full-Year Gains Lead the Mag 7?

TradingKey - Against the backdrop of a general pullback in the AI sector, Apple (AAPL) has staged an independent rally, driven by its unique ecosystem moat and robust financial performance. After reaching an all-time high of $323.45 on July 13, the share price hit another record high of $327.5 on July 15. Its market capitalization currently stands at $4.81 trillion, making it the second-largest company in the U.S. by market value as it approaches the epic $5 trillion milestone, trailing only Nvidia (NVDA) at $5.13 trillion. In fact, Apple's year-to-date gain in 2026 has reached 16%, also leading the "Mag 7."

SpaceX Negotiates Multi-Billion Dollar Computing Power Deal With Pentagon: Stock Price Drop Does Not Change Wall Street’s Bullish Expectations

Tradingkey - The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX (SPCX) is in negotiations with the U.S. Department of Defense to sell computing power. The deal could be valued at billions of dollars, and if finalized, would mark the latest major infrastructure contract for Elon Musk’s integrated rocket, satellite, and artificial intelligence conglomerate. The report noted that the partnership model for this deal is similar to previous agreements SpaceX reached with Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) and AI firm Anthropic. The negotiations come as the U.S. military seeks to construct data centers within its military bases to bolster its autonomous computing capabilities.

US Stocks Close: Three Major Indices Fall Across the Board, Nasdaq Drops 1.4%; Memory Stocks Stop Falling and Stabilize, Tech Stocks Sold Off; Market Focuses on Earnings to Be Released Next Week

TradingKey - The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to escalate, with both major crude oil benchmarks rising by over 4%. Market focus on upcoming earnings reports next week from tech giants—Google, Tesla, Intel, and SAP—contributed to dismal trading activity. All three major U.S. indices declined as tech stocks faced a sell-off, while memory chip stocks stabilized. By the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.77% to 52,146.42; the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.40% to 25,520.24; and the S&P 500 Index declined 1.01% to 7,457.69.

US-Iran Conflict Escalates, International Oil Prices Surge Over 3%: WTI Crude Breaks $81, Strait of Hormuz Shipping Blocked

Tradingkey - On July 17 (ET), as the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continued to escalate, the two major crude oil futures rose again, returning to price levels seen in mid-June. As of press time, WTI crude futures rose over 3% to $81.05, while Brent crude futures also gained more than 3% to $87.01. The confrontation between the two sides has intensified as the fragile ceasefire agreement signed by the U.S. and Iran last month shows further signs of breaking down.

Netflix (NFLX) Stock Plunges 8% After Q3 Guidance Disappoints — Is $65 the Next Stop?

TradingKey - Netflix fell 8% after Q3 guidance of $12.86B came in below the $13B estimate. Q2 EPS beat at $0.80 but revenue slightly missed. Down 21% YTD, NFLX is at $67. RSI 21. $66.50 is the immediate floor and $65 opens below it.

Featured Tools