EUR/USD Price Forecast: Sits near weekly top around 1.1450 as bulls flirt with 23.6% Fibo.
- EUR/USD remains supported by the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-led USD weakness.
- The lack of follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibo. warrants caution for bulls.
- The bearish flag pattern backs the case for the emergence of sellers at higher levels.
The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers for the third consecutive day and touches a fresh weekly high, around the 1.1460 area, during the Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) is seen prolonging the less hawkish FOMC Minutes-inspired slide and turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for the currency pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit further USD losses and cap spot prices.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair, so far, has been struggling to find acceptance or build on its strength beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. Moreover, the recovery from the year-to-date low has been along an upward-sloping channel, which now seems to constitute the formation of a bearish flag pattern, leaving the recent gains capped within the broader corrective structure.
Momentum indicators, however, remain constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering just below 60, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line is above zero and showing a modestly positive histogram. This suggests downside pressure is limited while the EUR/USD pair stays supported by the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the 1.1400 mark, which should act as a pivotal point.
A convincing breakdown below the said handle would expose the deeper structural supports clustered near 1.1327–1.1323. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 200-period EMA at 1.1491, followed closely by the channel top at 1.1494. A sustained strength and acceptance above this zone would open the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 1.1524 and the 50.0% level around 1.1586, if the bullish momentum extends further.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
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