India: RBI seen hiking if CPI tops 6% – Commerzbank

FXStreetNov 12, 2026 9:19 AM

View all comments（0）



Commerzbank Research expects India’s October CPI inflation to rise above 6% year‑on‑year, driven by high Oil prices, strong domestic demand and an unfavourable base. The report notes RBI’s projections keep inflation near the top of its target band through mid‑2027, implying further rate hikes. OIS pricing suggests cumulative tightening of nearly 90bp by February 2027.

Sticky inflation keeps RBI on tightening path

"It is expected to climb further and could well exceed 6% you compared to 5.5% in September."

"More worryingly for RBI, this low base effect will persist into November and December, which is likely to keep inflation elevated above 6.0% throughout Q4 2026."

"In the October review, RBI projected inflation at 6% in Q4 2026, and for it stay firm for the next two quarters, at 5.7% in Q1 2027 and 5.6% in Q2 2027."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Disclaimer: The information provided on this website is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice.

Comments (0)

Click the $ button, enter the symbol, and select to link a stock, ETF, or other ticker.

Commenting Guidelines

Recommended Articles

Jensen Huang Abruptly Steps Down, Nvidia Pares 14% Intraday Plunge, Stock Seen Rebounding Toward $190

TradingKey - On November 12, Eastern Time, Nvidia (NVDA) shares experienced sharp volatility following the sudden resignation of CEO Jensen Huang. NVDA gapped down sharply at the open, touching an intraday low of $148.80 and falling roughly 14% from the previous trading day at one point, before staging a notable rebound to close at $166.19, down 4.34%. Full-day trading volume reached approximately 748 million shares, expanding substantially compared to recent average levels.

Bitcoin Drops Below $70,000, May Log Sixth Straight Weekly Loss, Risking Slide Toward $65,000

TradingKey - As of the Asian trading session on November 13, Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline, briefly falling below $70,000 intraday to reach a low of $69,150, marking a nearly three-month low. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, rising expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, and persistent net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively constituted the primary headwinds facing the cryptocurrency market recently.

Gold Price Forecast: Gold Tumbles Below $3,900 as Trump Says No Need for Iran Deal; Can October PPI Spur a Rebound?

TradingKey - As of the Asian session on Friday (November 13), gold prices (XAUUSD) rebounded intraday following a sharp drop on Thursday, with the latest price trading near $3,910. On Thursday, gold tumbled 2.76% to close at $3,877.41, confirming a breakdown below the $3,900 mark and touching a low of $3,852.27, hitting a fresh nearly one-year low. The decline in gold was primarily driven by renewed Middle East tensions pushing up international oil prices, coupled with persistently elevated U.S. inflationary pressures, which continue to weigh on gold's short-term trajectory.

Gold Slumps 3% Below $3,900: What Is Causing the Continued Decline in Gold Prices?

On November 12, Eastern Time, spot gold (XAUUSD) dropped more than 3% intraday to $3,864 per ounce, hitting its lowest level since October of last year. Higher-than-expected U.S. inflation data, coupled with successive hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials, drove the U.S. dollar higher and kept investment demand for gold under sustained pressure.

US October PPI Preview: Fed Rate Hike Expectations Rise, PPI May Be Key Variable; How Will US Stocks, Dollar, and Gold Move?

TradingKey - On Friday (November 13) Eastern Time, the U.S. will release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Following October's CPI once again exceeding expectations, the market will look to the PPI to further assess whether price pressures on the U.S. production side are spreading, as well as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points or 50 basis points in December.

Featured Tools