Australian Dollar rises against Japanese Yen due to RBA-BoJ rate differential
- AUD/JPY gains as China kept its 1-year and 5-year benchmark LPR rates unchanged at 3.00% and 3.50%.
- The pair continues to gain, supported by the persistent interest rate differential between the RBA and the BoJ.
- Traders remain cautious of Japanese FX intervention following Finance Minister Katayama's warning of ready "decisive action".
AUD/JPY rises after two days of losses, trading around 113.60 during the European hours on Monday. The currency cross appreciates as the Australian Dollar (AUD) holds gains following the release of the interest rate decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China's central bank.
PBoC announced to leave its Loan Prime Rates (LPRs) unchanged, keeping the one-year and five-year LPRs at 3.00% and 3.50%, respectively. It is important to note that Australia and China are close trading partners, so any change in the Chinese economy could impact the AUD.
The AUD/JPY cross continues to advance, underpinned by the persistent interest rate differential between the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Expectations for additional RBA tightening remain muted, though escalating fuel costs could challenge this outlook. Markets currently price in roughly a 70% chance of one final rate increase by December, even as some investors project policy easing to begin next year. For now, the Australian central bank remains in a "wait-and-see" stance to gauge the impact of its previous tightening on sticky core inflation and a cooling domestic economy.
At the same time, market participants are exercising caution over potential FX intervention by Japanese officials. Sentiment was reinforced by Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama's warning that authorities stand ready to take "decisive action at any time" if necessary. Following a rate hike in June that brought borrowing costs to their highest level in three decades, the BoJ is set to meet again later this month. While an additional rate increase before year-end remains likely, the central bank is widely expected to hold policy steady at the upcoming July meeting.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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