BoJ poised to hike interest rates in Q4 — Reuters poll

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise its key interest rate in either October or December, according to the majority of economists polled by Reuters. Nearly 96% of economists expect borrowing costs to increase at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of March.

Additional takeaways

45 of 75 economists (60%) expect BOJ to raise rates by 25 bps this quarter.
64 of 67 economists (96%) expect BOJ policy rate to be at 0.75% by the end of March 2026.
16 of 35 economists (46%) expect BOJ to hike rates in January 2026.
11 of 35 economists (31%) expect BOJ to hike rates in December 2025.
5 of 35 economists (14%) expect BOJ to hike rates in October 2025.
18 of 27 economists (67%) don't expect Takaichi's premiership to delay a BOJ rate hike.
17 of 26 economists (65%) expressed concerns about her policies on Japan's fiscal health.

Market reaction 

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is trading 0.05% lower on the day to trade at 151.85.