인디(INDI) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 매출 31% 증가, 레이더 양산 돌입

핵심 요약

• 2026년 3분기 매출은 7,020만 달러를 기록해 전년 동기 대비 31%, 전분기 대비 10% 증가했다. 핵심 사업 매출은 전분기 대비 약 14% 증가한 4,070만 달러에 달했다.
• Non-GAAP 영업손실은 720만 달러로, 1,130만 달러였던 전년 동기 대비 축소됐다. 인디 귀속 Non-GAAP 순손실은 1,160만 달러(주당 0.05달러)였다.
• 경영진은 4분기 매출 가이던스로 7,300만~8,100만 달러를 제시했으며, 중간값인 7,700만 달러는 전년 동기 대비 약 33% 성장을 의미한다.
• 인디의 차량용 레이더 칩셋이 PPAP를 완료하고 대량 양산에 돌입했다. 경영진은 레이더가 2027년 핵심 성장 동력이 될 것으로 기대하고 있다.
• 비전 포트폴리오는 2026년에 40건 이상의 피지컬 AI 디자인 윈을 확보했으나, 전체 iND880 디자인 윈 중 출하가 시작된 비중은 20% 미만에 불과했다.
• 전략적 수주잔고는 62억 달러로 소폭 증가했다(우시 부문 및 최근 피지컬 AI 수주 제외). 경영진은 2027년 매출 전망이 현재 애널리스트 추정치에 여전히 부합한다고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

레이더, 대량 양산 진입

인디의 차량용 레이더 칩셋이 대량 양산 단계에 들어갔으며, 티어 1 파트너사로 상당한 규모의 출하가 진행 중이다. 해당 제품은 차량용 인증 및 제조 규격 준수를 입증하는 PPAP를 완료했다.

동사는 또한 북미 3대 완성차 업체(OEM) 중 한 곳에 레이더 공급사로 선정됐다. 경영진은 해당 프로그램이 광범위한 채택률을 갖춘 대량 양산 프로그램이라고 설명했으나 구체적인 양산 일정은 공개하지 않았다.

인디는 티어 1 파트너십을 통해 궁극적으로 연간 레이더 출하량이 5,000만~7,000만 개, 평균판매단가(ASP)는 5~6달러에 달할 것으로 기대하고 있다. 경영진은 4분기부터 실질적인 기여가 시작되어 2027년까지 큰 폭의 성장이 이어질 것으로 전망했다.

DRAM-less 비전 아키텍처, 시장 도입 확대

경영진은 메모리 품귀 현상과 3~4배에 달하는 DRAM 가격 상승으로 인해 DRAM-less iND880 비전 프로세서의 채택이 가속화됐다고 밝혔다. 새로운 전자 미러(eMirror) 및 사이드뷰 미러 디자인 윈에는 한국 및 인도 완성차 업체(OEM)가 포함됐다.

iND880은 이번 분기에 드론 애플리케이션 및 휴머노이드 로봇을 포함해 차량용 외 분야에서도 2건의 디자인 윈을 확보했다. 경영진에 따르면 일부 고객사는 초기 협의 후 2~3개월 만에 초도 출하까지 진행했다. 해당 제품 전체 디자인 윈 중 출하가 시작된 비중은 20% 미만이며, 이들 프로그램 역시 양산 확대 초기 단계에 머물러 있다.

피지컬 AI로 전체 잠재시장(TAM) 확대

인디는 휴머노이드 로봇, 드론, 협동 로봇, 자율 이동 로봇(AMR)에 대한 집중도를 높이고 있다. 2027년 연구개발(R&D) 예산의 상당 부분이 피지컬 AI용 차세대 SoC 개조에 재배정될 예정이다.

동사는 애지봇(Agibot), 유니트리(Unitree), 피규어 AI(Figure AI)와의 디자인 윈을 언급했다. 또한 주요 글로벌 물류 기업의 창고 로봇 애플리케이션에 동사의 라이다(LiDAR) 기술이 채택됐다. 경영진은 대당 탑재 가치가 100달러를 웃도는 일부 휴머노이드 플랫폼도 있을 것으로 추정했다.

경영진은 시점, 초기 양산 속도, 최종적인 시장 승자를 정확히 예측하기에는 불확실성이 너무 크다고 판단해 이들 프로그램을 현재의 전략적 수주잔고에 포함하지 않았다.

소프트웨어 및 포토닉스

이모션3D(emotion3D) 차량 내부 감지 사업부는 2027년 양산 예정인 호주 시장용 차량의 OEM 양산 프로그램을 수주했다. 소프트웨어 로열티는 4~8달러 수준으로 기능 구성에 따라 달라질 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 소프트웨어가 2027년에 유의미한 기여를 하겠지만, 첫해에는 매출의 10% 미만에 머물 가능성이 크다고 보고 있다.

퀀텀(Quantum) 사업부는 사상 최대 매출과 수주고를 달성했으며, 수주고는 전분기 대비 17% 증가했다. 수주 실적에는 동사 역대 최대 규모의 연속변수 양자키분배(CV-QKD) 주문과 통합 양자컴퓨팅 레이저 광원에 대한 2건의 NRE 계약이 포함됐다.

SLED 포토닉스 제품은 인증을 완료하고 CHIME 위성 프로그램에 채택됐다. 인디는 또한 우주 통신 분야의 LXM 레이저 프로그램과 관련해 200만 달러 규모의 공급 계약을 확보했다.

경영진 가이던스

2026년 4분기에 대해 경영진이 제시한 전망은 다음과 같다.

경영진은 2026년 연간 매출 성장률이 20%를 웃돌 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 2027년 2분기 Non-GAAP 기준 흑자 전환과 그다음 분기 플러스(+) 현금흐름 달성을 목표로 하고 있다.

동사는 잔여 통상적 거래 조건 충족을 전제로 ams 오스람(ams-OSRAM)의 CMOS 이미지 센서 사업 인수가 연말에 종결될 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 인수 사업부가 4분기 매출이나 영업비용에 크게 기여하지는 않을 것으로 보고 있다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

• 중국 내 자동차 수요는 부진했으나, 경영진은 중국에서 수출용으로 생산된 차량은 견조세를 보였다고 전했다.
• 우시(Wuxi) 부문은 지난 9~12개월간 심각한 마진 압박을 받아왔다. 해당 사업부 매각은 여전히 중국 당국의 규제 심사 대상이다.
• 추진 중인 우시 부문 매각으로 약 1억 3,500만 달러의 총 현금 유입이 예상되지만, 거래 종결 시점은 여전히 불확실하다.
• 경영진은 우시 부문 매각 후 통합 매출총이익률이 50%대 초반으로 상승할 것으로 기대하고 있다. 그전까지는 사업 믹스가 마진에 지속적인 부담으로 작용할 수 있다.
• 피지컬 AI 프로그램은 빠르게 진전되고 있으나, 경영진은 양산 규모와 시점, 최종적인 시장 선도 기업을 아직 정확하게 예측하기는 어렵다고 밝혔다.
• ams 오스람 인수는 최종 외국인직접투자(FDI) 승인을 받았으나, 통상적인 거래 종결 조건이 남아 있다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 주요 내용

• 자동차 사이클 노출도: 경영진은 인디의 매출 궤적이 전반적인 자동차 생산량보다 점유율 확대와 신규 프로그램 양산에 더 크게 좌우된다고 밝혔다. 이에 따라 동사가 자동차 업계 전반의 경기 순환 사이클로부터 일정 부분 벗어나 있다고 평가했다.
• 4분기 성장 구성: 핵심 사업 매출의 전분기 대비 예상 증가분은 주로 신규 비전 및 레이더 프로그램의 양산 확대와 관련이 있다. 포토닉스 부문도 기여하고 있으나 비중은 여전히 작은 편이다.
• 매출총이익률: 경영진은 4분기 매출총이익률이 41.6%에서 소폭 개선될 것으로 보고 있다. 우시 매각 후에는 통합 매출총이익률이 50%대 초반으로 진입할 것으로 예상된다.
• 2027년 매출 전환: 계획된 우시 매출 제외에도 불구하고, 경영진은 레이더 및 비전 부문의 유기적 성장—특히 DRAM-less iND880—이 2027년에 해당 매출을 충분히 메우고도 남을 것으로 예상했다.
• 수주잔고 매출 전환: 경영진은 62억 달러 규모의 전략적 수주잔고에 10년 롤링(rolling) 기준이 적용된다고 설명했다. 또한 향후 수년간 수주잔고의 매출 전환을 통해 연간 런레이트(run rate) 기준 수억 달러의 매출이 추가될 것으로 기대하고 있다.
• 유동성: 경영진은 ams 오스람 인수 자금을 조달한 이후에도, 그리고 우시 매각 대금 유입을 가정하지 않더라도 기존 현금으로 계획된 흑자 전환 시점까지 운영 자금을 충당할 수 있을 것이라고 밝혔다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to indie's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded.

I will now turn the call over to Ashish Gupta, Investor Relations. Mr. Gupta, please go ahead.

Ashish Gupta

Thank you, operator. Good afternoon, and welcome to indie's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me today are Don McClymont, indie's CEO and Co-Founder; Naixi Wu, indie's CFO; and Mark Tyndall, EVP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Don will provide opening remarks and discuss business highlights. Naixi will then review indie's Q3 results and business outlook.

Please note that we will be making forward-looking statements based on current expectations and assumptions, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These statements reflect our views only as of today and should not be relied upon as representative of views as of any subsequent date. These statements are subject to a variety of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations.

For material risks and other important factors that could affect our financial results, please review our risk factors in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, as supplemented by our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q as well as other public reports filed with the SEC.

Finally, the results and guidance discussed today are based on consolidated non-GAAP financial measures, such as non-GAAP operating loss, non-GAAP net loss and non-GAAP net loss per share. For a complete reconciliation to GAAP and the definitions of the non-GAAP reconciling items, please see our Q3 earnings press release and the accompanying presentation, which provides more detail on our non-GAAP measures. Both were posted on our website in advance of this call at www.indie.inc.

I'll now turn the call over to Donald.

Donald McClymont

Thanks, Ashish, and welcome, everyone. I'm pleased to report that indie delivered a solid third quarter. Revenue was $70.2 million, above the midpoint of our guidance, up 31% year-over-year and 10% sequentially. Our core business led the way, growing approximately 14% quarter-over-quarter.

Before turning to our business achievements, let me provide some context on the market environment. The automotive environment in the third quarter was mixed. Demand was strong in Europe and the United States, but was weaker in China. In Europe, new car registrations in the EU rose 9.3% year-over-year in September and are up 5.7% year-to-date according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association, with electrified vehicles continuing to gain share. In the United States, demand was resilient. September new vehicle sales rose more than 4% year-over-year according to MarkLines, and Cox Automotive raised its full year 2026 sales forecast to 16.1 million units.

China, the world's largest vehicle market, showed some softness. Even so, the shift towards electrified technology-rich vehicles with advanced features such as radar continues to support content growth for indie with export from China, a particular area of strength. Beyond automotive, physical AI is also gaining rapid momentum. According to Counterpoint Research, global humanoid robot shipments rose nearly 300% year-over-year in the first half of 2026. indie's deep automotive heritage gives us a strong foundation to capitalize on this emerging opportunity.

Our proven expertise in multi-camera vision processing, radar sensing, LiDAR and sensor fusion enables us to deliver reliable perception at scale. These capabilities apply directly to humanoid robots and other physical AI applications, including drones, collaborative robots and autonomous mobile robots or AMR. We are rapidly increasing our focus on physical AI and a substantial percentage of our 2027 R&D budget will be redirected to customizing our next-generation SoCs for this market. As reported in prior quarters, we have already secured design wins at leading humanoid robotics customers, including Agibot, Unitree and Figure AI as well as several emerging players. Agibot and Unitree ranked first and second globally in humanoid robot shipments in the first half of 2026. Additionally, during the quarter, our LiDAR technology was adopted for a warehouse robot application by a major global logistics company. These early wins show that our automotive ADAS technologies transferred to humanoid robotics with estimated content of more than $100 on some humanoid platforms. As humanoid robots move from pilot deployments to broader commercial adoption, indie is well positioned to benefit significantly as one of the broadest sensor suppliers to the physical AI market.

Let me now turn to our key achievements during the quarter. Starting with radar, I'm pleased to share that we have progressed into high-volume production of our automotive radar chipset with material shipments to our Tier 1 partner ongoing. The chipset is fully automotive qualified, having completed the production part approval process, or PPAP. This rigorous process confirms that both the product and our manufacturing meet the stringent quality requirements of our automotive customers. The move to large volume production is a significant inflection point for our radar business and sets the stage for our radar revenue ramp through 2027 and beyond.

We also continue to broaden our radar customer engagement jointly with our Tier 1 partner, particularly in China. And additionally, I'm happy to note that our radar technology has now been selected by one of the top 3 North American OEMs. We are also extending both our radar and LiDAR technology into physical AI. Autonomous machines such as robots and drones need robust all-weather perception to sense and safely navigate the world around them. In robotics, radar complements cameras by providing reliable detection in low light, dust and poor visibility, while LiDAR can map a scene with sub-millimeter precision.

In vision, given the escalating issues with DRAM availability and pricing, our differentiated DRAM-less solution, particularly for eMirror application is proving to be the perfect fit. For example, we have secured new eMirror and side-view mirror design wins with 2 OEMs, one Korean and the other Indian. These wins extend our camera-based mirror replacement business in 2 of the world's fastest-growing automotive markets. Our iND880 vision processor also continues to expand beyond automotive.

During the quarter, we secured 2 new design wins, one in the drone application and the other in a humanoid robot. The iND880 DRAM-less architecture reduces system latency and compute load for faster, more efficient perception. This makes the iND880 ideal for the robotics ecosystem. In commercial vehicles, the iND880 was featured at the IAA in a demonstration of Stoneridge's next-generation ECU architecture. This showcase reinforces our partnership with a leading commercial vehicle supplier and our position in centralized vision architectures. It also builds momentum towards further production engagements with truck and bus OEMs.

Our in-cabin perception software from the emotion3D acquisition continues to gain traction, both as a stand-alone offering and as part of our pre-integrated hardware plus software platform. We were awarded an OEM production program on a vehicle model for the Australian market with production starting in 2027. Additionally, our combined SoC and perception software solution for advanced driver and occupant monitoring was named "In-Cabin Solution of the Year" by AutoTech Breakthrough, recognizing the strength of our integrated approach.

Turning to Photonics. Our Quantum business delivered record revenue and record bookings in the third quarter with bookings up 17% sequentially. Highlights include our largest product order to date for continuous variable quantum key distribution or CV-QKD. We also secured 2 new NRE contracts for the first phase of development of an integrated laser source for quantum computing. These programs demonstrate the differentiation of our Photonic Light Source Platform as quantum applications progress toward commercialization. We are also expanding our Photonics business into higher reliability markets beyond automotive.

During the quarter, our SLED photonics products completed final qualification and were selected for the CHIME space satellite program, validating the strength of our portfolio and supporting our diversification strategy. We also advanced our LXM laser program for a space communications application and secured a $2 million supply contract. Together, these milestones demonstrate growing traction for our photonics technologies across multiple attractive end markets. Earlier this week, we received the final FDI regulatory approval for our acquisition of ams-OSRAM's CMOS Image Sensor Business. We now expect the transaction to close at the end of the year, subject to the satisfaction of the remaining customary closing conditions.

Before we move to our financials, I want to say a word about how we report our forward visibility in the form of our strategic backlog, which we report in November each year. Over the past year, our strategic backlog trended slightly up to $6.2 billion, excluding our China Wuxi business. Importantly, this figure does not include our recent physical AI design wins. In physical AI from drones to humanoid robots, our vision portfolio alone has secured more than 40 design wins in 2026. These are exciting, fast-moving markets and could be expected to contribute considerably to our strategic backlog and future revenue as these markets mature. However, today, it's just too early to predict with the precision, the size of the initial ramp and the winners for this market. We have, therefore, taken a conservative approach and excluded them from our strategic backlog this year.

Let me be clear, the underlying momentum in our business is strong and continues to build with major discussions ongoing, which potentially will result in significant increase in our strategic backlog when it is next reviewed, and these discussions have in turn transitioned into design win commitments. As Naixi will detail, our fourth quarter outlook implies approximately 33% year-over-year growth at the midpoint. We will continue to report design wins and growth metrics that reflects how the business is performing quarter-by-quarter. I also want to note that based on our current visibility, our 2027 revenue outlook is in line with current analyst estimates.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Naixi to review our financial results and our outlook in more detail.

Naixi Wu

Thank you, Donald, and good afternoon, everyone. indie's third quarter revenue was $70.2 million, $0.2 million above the midpoint of our outlook. Revenue increased 10% quarter-over-quarter and 31% year-over-year. Core business revenue was approximately $40.7 million, ahead of the midpoint of our outlook and up approximately 14% sequentially, reflecting continued momentum in our ADAS portfolio. Revenue from our Wuxi subsidiary increased approximately 5% sequentially to $29.5 million. Non-GAAP operating expenses for the quarter were $36.4 million, approximately $0.6 million below our outlook of $37 million. As a result, while leveraging our top line growth, our non-GAAP operating loss narrowed significantly to $7.2 million from $11.3 million in the third quarter of 2025, a reduction of more than 1/3 and a clear demonstration of our continued progress towards profitability.

Including net interest expense of $3.1 million, our non-GAAP net loss was $10.3 million. After excluding the noncontrolling interest in Wuxi, the non-GAAP net loss attributable to indie was $11.6 million or $0.05 per share on a base of 233 million shares, an improvement of $0.02 from the third quarter of 2025. Please refer to the presentation on our website for a more detailed breakdown of our non-GAAP measures.

Turning to the Wuxi divestiture, which still remains under review by the regulators in China. As a reminder, in the fourth quarter of 2025, we entered into a definitive agreement with United States Auto Engineering Co. Ltd, or UFA, a publicly listed company in China. Under the agreement, we will sell our entire equity interest in Wuxi indie Micro for gross proceeds of approximately $135 million, payable in cash at closing before applicable taxes and fees. The discussions with the regulators in UFA are constructive. We're optimistic that a transaction can still close by the end of the year. Upon closing, we expect to use the net proceeds to further strengthen our balance sheet and optimize our capital structure, including addressing our convertible debt.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with total cash and cash equivalents, including restricted cash of $144.3 million, a decrease of $4.7 million from the prior quarter. We expect to reach non-GAAP profitability in the second quarter of 2027 and to turn cash flow positive the following quarter. After funding the closing consideration for the ams-OSRAM acquisition and independent of any proceeds from the Wuxi divestiture, we believe our existing cash provides ample liquidity to fund our operations through that path to profitability.

Moving to our outlook. For the fourth quarter of 2026, we expect total revenue of between $73 million and $81 million or $77 million at the midpoint. We expect our core business to contribute approximately $47 million and our Wuxi subsidiary at approximately $30 million at the midpoint. We expect non-GAAP operating expense of $37.5 million in the fourth quarter, up slightly from $36.4 million in the third quarter. With a net interest expense of approximately $3.4 million and no tax expense, we expect net loss per share to decrease to approximately $0.04, assuming the midpoint of revenue range and the base of 240 million shares.

To summarize, the third quarter was another quarter of solid execution. Revenue grew 10% sequentially and 31% year-over-year, led by approximately 14% sequential growth in our core business as our ADAS portfolio continues to ramp. We reduced our non-GAAP operating loss by approximately $4 million from the prior year period, and our loss per share improved by $0.02. Our balance sheet remains solid with over $144 million in cash, and we expect approximately $135 million in gross proceeds from the Wuxi divestiture to strengthen it further.

Looking ahead, our fourth quarter outlook implies 33% year-over-year growth and full year revenue growth of more than 20%. With radar now in volume production, we remain focused on disciplined spending and continued progress towards profitability.

With that, I will turn the call back to Donald for closing remarks.

Donald McClymont

In closing, Q3 was a strong quarter for indie. We delivered double-digit revenue growth both sequentially and year-over-year, and we are on track for a full year revenue growth of more than 20% in the mixed automotive market. Just as importantly, we are executing on the milestones that will drive our next phase of growth. Our automotive radar chipset is in high-volume production, setting the stage for our continued radar revenue ramp. Our vision portfolio has secured more than 40 design wins so far this year, and our technology is moving rapidly into physical AI across humanoid robots, drones and other autonomous machines. Our Photonics business delivered record quantum revenue and bookings while expanding into new high-margin markets.

With a growing design win pipeline and a broadening customer base, we believe indie is exceptionally well positioned to deliver sustained growth and long-term value for our shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks.

Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Cody Acree with StoneX.

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Cody Grant Acree

Congrats on the progress. It's nice to hear, Donald, that our street models are not far off for '27. That's definitely encouraging. We're at least on the right path. You opened the call with a talk about the auto industry softer in China, stronger in the U.S. and Europe. Can you maybe talk about how indie is leveraged against the broader auto cycle? Obviously, you're in the early stages of radar and machine vision ramp, and I would think that would really insulate you from cyclical swings, but we are hearing better things about the overall auto cycle. Just curious on your thoughts here.

Donald McClymont

Yes. I mean the primary thing that defines our revenue profile is our own share gain, and that's beginning to accelerate, as you can see from the numbers right now, and we expect it will continue to do such as we progress through the next weeks and months and quarters. So yes, you're 100% correct. I mean we are somewhat insulated from the cycle. Generally speaking, it's been reasonably positive actually worldwide. There has been some softness domestically in China that we saw, but the China export market models being designed, manufactured in China for export to whatever Central Europe and so have shown some strength. So at this point, we don't view macro as a huge driver, at least not compared to our own share gain.

Cody Grant Acree

And you mentioned China a bit better in export. Can you maybe just talk about your DRAM-less vision engagements there? Help us frame maybe the size of the opportunity there and the pace at contribution you expect over the next few quarters? Are those engagements starting to generate revenue?

Donald McClymont

Yes. I mean they are absolutely. And I wouldn't single out China necessarily only. They were kind of the vanguard of the adoption of the product, but we are now beginning to see it worldwide in certain applications within the car, particularly in the United States. We've had some very significant uptick in adoption over the course of the last quarter. And we expect that, that will continue. It has been a very challenging area for supply chain given the scarcity of memory and the pricing increase of 3x or 4x over the course of the last period. And that has driven many significant manufacturers to adopt us and even 1 or 2 are beginning to talk about it publicly.

Cody Grant Acree

And then lastly, and not to bring up a sore point, but your equity has obviously suffered along with the rest of the group, but you particularly suffered. Has that prompted any supplier conversations, any partner, any OEM or Tier 1 partner conversations? The auto industry is particularly sensitive about their supplier health. Just if you can help us with those discussions.

Donald McClymont

Well, I mean, I think, generally speaking, the automotive industry is used to a bit of suffering. But the bottom line is our cash position is still strong, and that's really where the rubber hits the road, again, using an automotive analogy there for you. So I think at this point, everybody is cool. We haven't had any explicit discussions at all actually around that. It's been a tough tape for the last month or so. But I mean, at this point, there's nothing structurally that's changed for us, and we're somewhat confused by the market at this point, but we'll drive through it. We'll execute to it. We run our own race, drive our products into production and drive them into heavy growth. And I think we'll get rewarded for it in the fullness of time.

Operator

Our next question is from Anthony Stoss with Craig-Hallum.

Anthony Stoss

Donald, I wanted to go through gross margin. So the gross margins in the quarter ticked down sequentially to 41.6%. Why did it happen? And can you give us a sense what you expect for Q4 and maybe for 2027? And then I have a follow-up.

Donald McClymont

Largely driven by mix in -- particularly in our Wuxi business. That's had some fairly severe margin pressure over the course of the last, I mean, 9 to 12 months or so. And that has continued, although we do see light at the end of the tunnel, in that supply chain tightness may allow us to leverage prices back up as we go forward. And as we've highlighted before, once Wuxi is divested, then our blended gross margin should tick up into the low 50s.

Anthony Stoss

Q4, do you think it's, kind of, in that same 41% range? Or does it move up a little bit?

Donald McClymont

I think we'll see it go up a little bit as some of these measures begin to take effect.

Anthony Stoss

Got it. And then your top 3 North American win for radar, can you discuss timing and perhaps the number of models you might expect out of the gate?

Donald McClymont

We do see fairly broad adoption of that in terms of number of models that we'll see. And timing is not public yet, but it's a relatively near-term opportunity for us.

Anthony Stoss

Got it. And then lastly, can you talk about the AMS that you expect it to close in the next month or so? What do you expect revenue-wise, gross margin-wise, et cetera? If you don't mind.

Donald McClymont

Yes. I mean this quarter is slated to close. It won't contribute significantly in either revenue or OpEx through the end of the quarter. And at this point, we believe it should be commensurate with our average gross margins, maybe a little on the low side before we are able to tune it up and get our arms around it and make sure that we optimize the manufacturing in that group.

Operator

Our next question is from Suji Desilva with ROTH Capital.

Sujeeva De Silva

Donald, I appreciate all the automotive analogies in your replies. So the Tier 1 radar program staying on that, you talked about a large OEM, how many OEMs are helping contribute to revenue today? And maybe do you expect in 12 months? And you talked about it being $1 billion lifetime opportunity, $100 million a year at peak. How far away are we from that kind of ramp-up is it? Just give us some idea, maybe time frame would be helpful.

Donald McClymont

I mean there are multiple OEMs who are signed up to this already. We do expect a fairly broad adoption of this through our key Tier 1. Our expectation is, in fact, that we'll get to a point of somewhere between 50 million and 70 million units shipped per year at an ASP between $5 and $6. So maybe a little higher than the number you just mentioned in terms of annual run rate. We do expect significant growth from it next year. It will be one of the key drivers of our growth as we go through '27.

I mean very significant. We will get some material contribution from it -- from this quarter and on into '27. And the level of interest in it, just given the performance that is simply the best in the business, the best on the market. People who have seen radar deployments and presentations for 20 years are saying it's the most significant progress in radar technology in the last 20 years in their career time. So you can expect a lot more design wins as we go forward from this.

Sujeeva De Silva

Great. It sounds like an exciting upside opportunity to what I thought. And then switching over to the video cluster, the iND880. It sounds like you have -- you said 40 design wins. I'm curious how many of those -- what portion of those are seeing revenue today? It sounds like it's still early. And what's the linearity of some more of those 40 design wins coming online in the next several quarters? I know Korea, India are 2 places you mentioned, but curious how that's going to progress from here.

Donald McClymont

Yes. I mean we've seen some almost alarmingly quick adoption of the chip just given the DRAM situation, people can't ship or they can't ship economically even down to the level of 2 or 3 months from first contact to first shipment for us. So it's kind of hard to call how quickly it's going to ramp. Certainly, it's been surprising us so far and has been a material contributor to the ramp-up that we've gone through this year, and we expect it to accelerate. I mean, in terms of the number of design wins that have ramped so far, I mean, it's probably less than 20% of the total, which are even in those guys who have begun to ship are still at the slim end of the ramp. So we have a lot of upside to come.

Operator

Our next question is from Lannie Trieu with TD Cowen.

Joshua Buchalter

This is Lannie on for Josh today. Congratulations on the results and great to hear about your design wins to date. I wanted to talk about your emotion3D in-cabin software win that you had mentioned. Given that it's going into production next year, how should we think about the revenue ramp through the year and the potential beyond that? And I have a follow-up.

Donald McClymont

Well, just by way of reminder, it's a software business. So we generate license fees and then royalty stream as we ship or as our customer ships product into the field. So the ASP for the software royalty is somewhere between $4 and $8 depending on the feature set that we deploy into the market. And you can assume that it ramps with the same sort of profile as any one of our hardware products. We also, a while ago, publicly announced our first quarter, our first -- or one of our first design wins with Mahindra, which is now beginning to generate revenue from that flow.

And we are expecting reasonably significant contribution to our overall revenue profile in '27 from software, probably not more than 10% in the first year, but we do see it growing very quickly. And we also see it as, sort of, following wind for the one-stop shop product that we have where we supply the hardware with the software also integrated. So we are seeing a lot of great traction for that product. Again, we trade on technology as a company. Our radar technology is the best on the planet. Our ISP technology is the best on the planet. And likewise, our perception software is getting the same plaudits from our customers once they see it. So we are running into open doors.

Joshua Buchalter

Great. That's great to hear. And then pivoting from the auto business, really interesting to see your SLEDs chosen for CHIME. I believe the press release had mentioned some satellites scheduled for launch in 2028 and 2030. So focusing more on the 2028 launch, can you talk a little bit about your content opportunity? Should we see some revenue maybe end of next year and more materially in 2028? Or how should we think about that layering into your P&L?

Donald McClymont

I mean, it's relatively small compared to our core business. It's more intended to highlight the diversity of the technologies that we have now available to us. Typically, these programs generate some nonproduct-based revenue in terms of services or NREs or customization fees that we realize for the development of the programs. And then as the satellites launch, of course, we get the recurring product revenue. At this point, we're not really subsegmenting out how much revenue that is, but let's say, single-digit revenue.

Operator

Our next question is from Rebecca Zamsky with B. Riley Securities.

Craig Ellis

This is Rebecca on for Craig Ellis. I think your core business revenue grew about 14% sequentially and the guide implies about $47 million. So could you provide some color of how that's split across radar, vision and photonics? And how much of the 4Q step-up is new program ramps versus share gains on existing platforms?

Donald McClymont

Well, I mean, firstly, it's mostly driven by new program ramps as opposed to, let's say, share gain for our Tier 1 customer. We are mostly driven by our vision and radar programs. Those are the large movers. The optical group is beginning to contribute. It will become significant over time, but it's still smaller than the other two.

Craig Ellis

And on the radar selection as a top 3 North American OEM, when should we start to expect production? And how should we think about the shape of the ramp through 2027 and '28?

Donald McClymont

So we haven't publicized that yet. It's a little early to provide specific guidance on specific programs, but it is a large volume program for us with a high penetration in that particular customer. So we do expect it to be significant, and we'll provide more information as time progresses.

Operator

Our next question is from John Tanwanteng with CJS Securities.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

I was wondering if you could go over the strategic backlog calculation again and if there's any difference in how you calculate that, number one? And number two, how you expect that to layer on into revenue over the next 2 or 3 years or so?

Donald McClymont

No change in the methodology per se other than the part that we highlighted in the script that we did not include the physical AI wins just as it's a little too early for us to, kind of, call how the long-term revenue profiles of these guys are going to roll out. So we did drive a lot of additional business in our core automotive business during the last 12 months. But the way that the model works, I think, as you know, John, we have a, sort of, a rolling 10-year window and some of the designs which are just ramping now or have ramped in the last year or so roll off out of the window. And in some cases, we haven't won the follow-on designs for those yet because the cycle is just not there yet. But I mean, the sales progress in our company has been just phenomenal over the course of the last 12 months. So the fact that it's relatively flat versus last year isn't indicative of how we see our momentum in the market.

In terms of how we roll that into the following years, as we said in the guide, in the script, we feel extremely strong about what the perception is of our revenue ramp going out there. We do expect that we will add multiple hundred million dollars of annual run rate over the course of the next couple of years into the equation as that converts into run rate business.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Okay. Great. And I was wondering if you could quantify how much contribution you might be seeing in '27 from contracts you've won or, I guess, vision processors that have moved over the finish line because of the DRAM discussion, whether they started there or it was a deciding factor. [indiscernible] Just help us understand how much more where DRAM-less was the deciding factor in a vision processor with DRAM. How much incremental have you seen next year versus this year if that DRAM discussion wasn't there?

Donald McClymont

I mean, the product was good to start with. But I think if anything, it's just speeded the adoption of it given the DRAM issues. We do expect, given the divestiture of Wuxi impending and that dropping off of our revenue in '27, we do expect to be able to more than replace that revenue in '27 from the organic growth of radar and vision through that and the DRAM-less iND880 is a key cornerstone of that.

Jonathan Tanwanteng

Okay. Great. If I could get one more in there. How big is your non-auto business today? And what's the growth expected next year?

Donald McClymont

I mean we don't really segment that out actually, John. But it's still, I mean, still -- automotive is still our key business.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the floor back over to Donald McClymont for closing comments.

Donald McClymont

Well, thanks, everybody, for attending and looking forward to seeing you at the investor conferences through the course of the remainder of the quarter. Thanks, everybody.

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.