HEI(HE) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 폭풍 관련 비용, 요금 조정안 및 산불 합의

핵심 요약

• HEI(HE)의 2026년 3분기 GAAP 기준 순이익은 3,550만 달러(주당 0.20달러)로, 전년 동기의 3,070만 달러(주당 0.18달러) 대비 증가했다.
• 핵심 순이익은 전년 동기 3,280만 달러(주당 0.19달러)에서 2,300만 달러(주당 0.13달러)로 감소했는데, 이는 주로 폭풍 피해로 발생한 약 1,370만 달러의 추정 세전 추가 비용을 포함해 유틸리티 운영 및 유지보수(O&M) 비용이 증가한 데 따른 것이다.
• 분기 말 기준 총 유동성은 약 13억 달러로, 사용 제한이 없는 현금 2억 2,400만 달러와 주식 및 신용공여 한도 전반의 가용 여력 약 11억 달러로 구성됐다.
• 경영진은 규제 당국의 잠정 일정에 따라 2027년 5월 초 신규 기본요금이 발효될 수 있다고 밝혔다. 신청안이 전액 승인될 경우, HEI는 2027년에 8,300만 달러의 추가 매출이 발생하고 연간 기준으로는 1억 2,500만 달러에 달할 것으로 추산했다.
• HEI는 2차 산불 합의금 지급액 중 8,000만 달러를 선납했다. 경영진은 최소 1억 달러의 추가 선납이 이뤄져 2027년 4월 만기 지급액이 3억 달러 미만으로 줄어들 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 회사는 잔여 합의금 의무에 대해 일반 채권과 전환사채 발행을 지속적으로 검토하고 있으며, 주주 지분 희석을 최소화하고 투자적격 신용지표를 회복하는 데 주력하고 있다고 밝혔다.

주요 재무 데이터

HEI는 아메리칸 세이빙스 뱅크(American Savings Bank)와 관련해 약 6,400만 달러의 세전 실현 및 평가이익을 인식했다. 이는 HEI의 보유 지분 9.9% 중 35%를 매각해 발생한 1,830만 달러의 세전 이익과 잔여 지분에 대한 4,590만 달러의 평가이익으로 구성됐다.

퍼시픽 커런트는 마히파파(Mahipapa) 바이오매스 시설과 관련해 5,070만 달러의 비현금성 세전 손상차손을 기록했다. 유틸리티 부문 이자비용에도 산불 합의금 부채에 대한 약 1,800만 달러의 비현금성 할인액 상각비가 포함됐다.

사업 및 운영 실적

유틸리티 부문 O&M 비용에는 8월과 9월 허리케인과 관련된 추정 세전 추가 비용 1,370만 달러가 포함됐다. 또한 HEI는 조직 단순화의 일환으로 지주회사에서 유틸리티 부문으로 약 560만 달러의 비용을 이전했다. 경영진은 이번 이전으로 인해 연결 기준 비용이 증가하지는 않았다고 강조했다.

허리케인 랄라(Lala)로 인해 정점 기준 HEI 서비스 지역 전체 고객 계정의 40% 이상에서 정전이 발생했다. 유틸리티 부문은 3일 이내에 피해 고객의 95% 이상에 전력 공급을 복구했다. 허리케인 로웰(Lowell)과 놀로(Nolo)가 HEI 전력망에 미친 영향은 상대적으로 제한적이었다.

경영진은 전신주 보강 및 수목 벌채 강화 등 산불 위험 완화 조치가 기상 악화 시 전신주 파손을 줄이는 데 도움이 되었다고 밝혔다. 보장 한도 100만 달러당 상업용 산불 보험료는 2023년 마우이 산불 이후 52% 하락했다.

HEI는 산불 안전, 위험 완화 및 복원력 강화를 위한 투자 중 최대 5억 달러에 대해 증권화(securitization)를 활용하는 방안의 승인을 추진하고 있다. 고객 만족도는 조사 대상 100여 개 유틸리티 기업 중 상위 14%(86번째 백분위수)를 유지했다.

아메리칸 세이빙스 뱅크는 9월에 기업공개(IPO)를 완료했다. 퍼시픽 커런트의 잔여 운영 자산인 마히파파는 매각 추진이 무산되고 전력구매계약(PPA)이 10월 1일 종료된 후 11월 3일 연방파산법 제7조(Chapter 7)에 따른 청산 파산을 신청했다.

경영진 전망

현재 계류 중인 요금 재조정 신청안은 2년에 걸쳐 기본요금을 5.3% 단계적으로 인상하는 방안을 제안하고 있다. PUC의 잠정 일정에 따르면 최종 결정은 2027년 4월 중·하순으로 예정되어 있어, 이르면 5월 초 신규 요금이 발효될 수 있다.

해당 시점에 맞춰 신청안이 전액 승인될 경우, 경영진은 2027년 추가 매출을 연간 환산액 1억 2,500만 달러 중 8개월 치에 해당하는 8,300만 달러로 추산하고 있다. 이에 따른 해당 부분 연도의 유틸리티 부문 핵심 자기자본이익률(ROE) 목표치는 약 7.3%~7.8%이며, 신규 요금이 1년 내내 적용될 경우 약 8.3%~8.8%에 해당한다.

이러한 시나리오에는 성과기반규제(PBR) 절차 6단계에 따라 제안된 성과 인센티브 메커니즘의 잠재적 영향은 제외되어 있다. 경영진은 ROE 기준 최대 150bp(약 3,300만 달러)의 상승 여력과 최대 50bp(약 1,100만 달러)의 잠재적 페널티가 발생할 수 있다고 추산했다. 다만 시기와 규제 결과는 여전히 불확실하다.

HEI는 잔여 ASB 주식의 잠재적 매각 대금과 예상 보험금 수령액을 통해 최소 1억 달러의 합의금을 추가 선납할 수 있을 것으로 기대하고 있다. 경영진은 시장 상황에 따라 일반 채권이나 전환사채로 잔여 금액을 조달할 계획이다.

주요 위험 및 주목할 이슈

• HEI는 요건을 갖춘 폭풍 관련 비용의 이연 승인을 요청했으며, PUC에 2026년 12월 15일까지 결정을 내려줄 것을 요청한 상태다. 이연 승인이 비용 회수 승인을 의미하는 것은 아니며, 비용 회수는 2027년에 별도로 요청할 예정이다.
• 요금 재조정 및 6단계 PBR 절차의 시기와 결과는 여전히 PUC의 결정에 달려 있다.
• 잔여 산불 합의금 지급을 위한 자금 조달 조건은 시장 상황과 일반 채권 및 전환사채 간의 득실에 따라 달라질 것이다.
• 계획된 합의금 선납은 HEI의 잔여 ASB 지분 매각 가능성과 예상 보험금 수령액에 부분적으로 좌우된다.
• 마히파파의 연방파산법 제7조 청산 신청은 허리케인 피해, 매각 추진 무산 및 전력구매계약 만료에 따른 것이다.
• 투자적격 등급 복귀 여부는 여전히 신용평가사들의 재량에 달려 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 잔여 2차 산불 합의금 지급액이 일반 채권이나 전환사채로 조달될 가능성이 높다는 점을 재확인했다. 완료된 8,000만 달러의 선납과 예상되는 추가 조달 대금을 통해, HEI는 2027년 4월 지급 잔액을 약 3억 달러 또는 그보다 약간 적은 수준으로 줄이는 것을 목표로 하고 있다.

산불 배상 책임 상한제 도입 가능성과 관련해 경영진은 PUC의 공식 규칙 제정 절차가 진행 중이라고 밝혔다. 규정 초안은 2027년 중 나올 수 있으나, 일정은 위원회가 결정한다.

경영진은 현재 주가 수준에서 주식 공모 프로그램(ATM)을 활용할 계획은 없다고 밝혔다. 회사는 대부분의 자본적 지출을 내부 창출 이익으로 충당하고 부채로 보완할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 또한 집행 시점의 변동 가능성을 제외하면 2027년과 2028년 자본적 지출 계획은 전 분기와 대체로 일치한다고 덧붙였다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the HEI Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the conference over to Mateo Garcia, Director of Investor Relations. Sir, please go ahead.

Mateo Garcia

Thank you. Welcome, everyone, to HEI's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. Joining me today are our CEO, Scott Seu; our President, Shelee Kimura; our Senior Vice President and CFO, Paul Ito; and other members of senior management. Our earnings release and our presentation for this call are available in the Investor Relations section of our website.

As a reminder, forward-looking statements will be made on today's call. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations can be found in our presentation, our SEC filings and in the Investor Relations section of our website. Today's presentation also includes references to non-GAAP financial measures, including those referred to as core items. You should refer to the information contained in the slides accompanying today's presentation for definitional information and reconciliations of historical non-GAAP measures to the closest GAAP financial measure.

We will take questions from institutional investors at the end of this call. Individual investors and others can reach out to Investor Relations.

Now Scott Seu will begin with his remarks.

Scott W. Seu

Aloha kakou. Welcome, everyone. For today's call, I'll start with updates on key strategic priorities and regulatory processes. Paul Ito will walk through the quarter's results and discuss the financial implications of pending regulatory requests.

Throughout this year, we've continued to make measurable progress across the key objectives that we've communicated since the Maui wildfires of 2023. We told you that we would take the actions necessary to improve the financial strength of our enterprise and ensure our ability to serve and invest in our communities for the long term. Over the past 3 years, we've done this by improving our financial and operational risk profile, resulting in upgrades in both HEI and Hawaiian Electric's ratings from all 3 agencies.

Our liquidity today is more than 5x what it was just after the wildfires and more than twice what it was just before the wildfires, giving us significant optionality as we look ahead toward making the remaining payments stipulated under the historic settlement agreement that was upheld by the Hawaii Supreme Court earlier this year. We've also restored our access to capital, completing successful debt and equity offerings at the operating company level and holding company level, respectively. We've achieved substantial milestones in implementing our Wildfire Mitigation Plan, resulting in significantly lower risk of utility-caused ignitions across our system.

The effectiveness of our efforts has not only been recognized by the rating agencies, but by our insurance providers as well. Our insurers have recognized us as among the best-in-class with respect to wildfire risk mitigation. And as a result, our price per million for commercial wildfire premiums has declined 52% since the Maui wildfires.

We're also implementing our Wildfire Mitigation Plan at the least cost to customers, with securitization planned to cover up to $500 million in wildfire mitigation program costs and other resilience spending. With the divestitures of American Savings Bank and the Pacific Current businesses, we're moving ahead with a more streamlined and simpler business solely focused on a regulated electric utility. After consistently achieving aggressive strategic milestones to date under challenging circumstances, we're well positioned for strong execution of our strategies, ensuring that we can continue to strengthen the financial position of the company while serving our communities with safe, affordable, reliable and resilient electricity.

Turning to the next slide. We continue to advance strategic priorities during the third quarter. Our islands experienced elevated storm activity in August and September, and I'm proud of the strong performance of our crews in quickly restoring power following severe weather and damage to our system. Hurricane Lala caused extensive statewide damage as it passed through the southern portion of the island chain in mid-August, causing hurricane force winds across the state. At their peak, outages impacted over 40% of customer accounts across our service territories. However, our crews made rapid progress restoring service under challenging weather conditions, with more than 95% of affected customers restored within 3 days of the storm's passing.

Hurricane Lowell passed by our service territories in early September, with limited impacts to our system. Our crews provided assistance to Kauai Island Utility Cooperative to restore power on the island of Kauai, which experienced severe impacts. In September, Hurricane Nolo had only minor impacts in our service territory, with a handful of outages that our crews quickly addressed. Most customers' power was restored within hours.

Our ability to quickly restore customers in the face of very challenging weather conditions is a result of the hard work of Hawaiian Electric crews and our effective execution implementing resiliency measures. The significant resources invested in resilience as we've implemented our Wildfire Mitigation Plan proved beneficial in the face of these severe weather events. For example, measures already implemented in high wildfire risk areas, such as pole upgrades and enhanced vegetation trimming, have resulted in fewer pole failures during extreme weather events.

We continue to prioritize safety in everything we do, and we've implemented industry-wide best practices, adopting proven measures used by wildfire-affected utilities on the mainland, but tailored to our very different risk profile. Hawaii's wildfire risk differs significantly from that of California or other wildfire-prone Western states, where large-scale wildfires are a regular occurrence, often numerous times a year. We continue to implement industry best practices to strengthen safety and reduce risk of utility equipment involvement in an ignition.

Wildfire risk reduction has also become a statewide collaborative effort involving many dedicated parties beyond the state's utilities. Government agencies, first responders, landowners, nonprofits and others are engaged in dedicated efforts and have increased funding and other resources to reduce the risk of ignition, spread and impact of wildfires.

Along with safety, reliability and resilience, affordability remains a priority in everything we do. Our pending rate rebasing request reflects that balance. We've proposed a 5.3% base rate increase phased in over 2 years that is in line with projected inflation while supporting the continued investments needed for a safe, reliable and resilient grid.

We're mindful of the cost pressures our customers face, especially our low-income customers, in the current high price environment. That's also why we recently sought PUC approval of up to $500 million in wildfire safety and resilience investments using securitization, which was authorized by Hawaii's legislature and signed into law by Governor Green last year. The structure is designed to lower the cost to customers while advancing public safety.

Our work to consistently deliver for our customers has not gone unrecognized, and we've seen consistent improvement in customer satisfaction over the past 3 years. We were pleased to see that customer satisfaction scores during the quarter remained well above industry averages, with customer satisfaction in the 86th percentile of over 100 utilities surveyed.

Turning to the next slide. Our rate rebasing continues to progress. And over the past few months, public hearings have been held on all islands we serve. We are awaiting a final PUC procedural schedule, which will give us a better sense of the next significant milestone dates and when new rates might take effect.

In the meantime, the review process to consider PBR framework changes for the next 5 years is progressing toward conclusion. In October, the PUC issued guidance for what is called PBR Phase 6, including a staff proposal to narrow focus for the remaining steps in this process. The staff proposal is largely aligned with our own positions on PBR modifications. The collaboration and discussions among the PBR stakeholder parties to this point should facilitate a PUC decision on final PBR framework changes in the near future, although no time line for such a decision has been set thus far.

We'll be filing our comments on the PUC staff's proposal no later than November 13. The PUC has laid out high-level procedural steps following the reply comments, with the next major milestone being the commission's inclinations, expected to be published in early January. In summary, our key PBR-related regulatory processes are advancing, and we expect more clarity on the exact timing for conclusion of the rate rebasing and Phase 6 in the near term. We continue to execute on our operational priorities, maintaining our focus on affordability while delivering the safe, reliable and resilient electricity our customers deserve.

I'll now turn the call over to Paul to discuss our financial results.

Paul Ito

Thank you, Scott. I'll start with our financial results on Slide 6. For the third quarter of 2026, we generated GAAP net income of $35.5 million or $0.20 per share compared to $30.7 million or $0.18 per share a year ago. The results include the impacts of several items we consider noncore. American Savings Bank completed an initial public offering in September. And as part of the transaction, HEI sold 35% of its 9.9% stake, realizing net proceeds of approximately $33.9 million and a pretax gain of $18.3 million. HEI also recognized a noncash unrealized gain of $45.9 million on its remaining stake in the bank, reflecting its market value at quarter end. In total, the realized and unrealized gains were approximately $64 million pretax.

We also recorded a noncash pretax asset impairment of $50.7 million at Pacific Current related to its last remaining operating asset, the Mahipapa biomass generating facility on Kauai. In September, the proposed sale of Mahipapa to an unaffiliated third party was terminated because the parties could not resolve certain obligations needed to close the sale. Mahipapa's facility has been offline since early September following damage from Hurricane Lowell, and its power purchase agreement with Kauai Island Utility Cooperative, or KIUC, ended on October 1.

Mahipapa filed for Chapter 7 liquidation on November 3. Once the proceeding is completed, there will be no remaining operations under Pacific Current. We've worked to minimize the impacts of the shutdown on stakeholders, including Mahipapa employees, KIUC and creditors. The impairment reduced the plant assets to their estimated net salvage value.

Similar to last quarter, utility interest expense includes approximately $18 million of noncash accretion expense on the wildfire settlement liability. As a reminder, we discounted the remaining settlement payments to present value last quarter. Accretion increases that recorded liability as the payment dates approach. It does not increase the agreed settlement payments.

Excluding ASB investment gains, the Pacific Current impairment and Maui wildfire-related items, consolidated core net income and EPS were $23 million and $0.13, down from $32.8 million and $0.19 in the third quarter of 2025. The decline primarily reflects storm-related expenses at the utility, which remain included in both GAAP and core results. At the utility, GAAP net income was $13.5 million compared to $37 million a year ago. Utility core net income for the quarter was $27.6 million compared to $39.6 million in 2025. The decrease in utility core net income primarily reflects higher O&M expenses.

The higher utility O&M was driven by $13.7 million of estimated incremental pretax storm costs related to hurricanes in August and September and approximately $5.6 million of expenses previously recorded at the holding company, but now recorded at the utility. This transfer started in the third quarter and reflects the integration of holding company functions and employees into the utility as we simplify the business. The ongoing expenses are now recorded at the utility, but the transfer itself did not increase consolidated expenses. The costs that remain at the holding company will primarily consist of interest expense on holding company debt and holding company expenses that are unrelated to utility operations.

In October, we filed for deferral of the storm-related expenses and have requested a PUC decision no later than December 15, 2026. If approved and the applicable accounting criteria are met, we would reverse the qualifying expenses in our fourth quarter financials. Our request covers incremental, prudently incurred storm costs. We'll then file for recovery in a separate request to the PUC in 2027 under our Z-factor recovery mechanism. We believe the storm costs meet the required criteria specified for recovery under the Z-factor because the costs were prudently incurred, incremental and related to exogenous events outside of the control of the utility. Approval to defer the costs would not by itself constitute approval of recovery.

Holding company core net loss for the quarter was $4.6 million compared to $6.8 million in the third quarter of 2025. The lower core net loss was primarily driven by the holding company expenses that are now being recorded at the utility, partially offset by lower interest income due to a lower cash balance following the first settlement payment made in April of this year.

Turning to the next slide. As of the end of the third quarter, on a consolidated basis, total liquidity was approximately $1.3 billion. This includes $224 million of unrestricted cash on hand and approximately $1.1 billion of liquidity available under HEI's ATM program, HEI's and the utility's credit facility capacity and the utility's accounts receivable facility.

We continue to believe that we are well positioned to meet increased working capital requirements due to higher fuel prices, as well as financing needs related to utility CapEx. Consistent with last quarter, we have not seen a meaningful increase in bad debt expense or write-offs this year, and bad debt expense is actually lower than it was at this time last year, while net write-offs have been relatively flat.

Turning to the next slide. As Scott mentioned, our rate rebasing request is being reviewed by the PUC. The PUC's tentative procedural schedule contemplates a final decision in order in mid- to late April 2027. This could allow for new rates to take effect by early May. Under this illustrative scenario, assuming our full rate rebasing requests were granted, we would see $83 million of additional revenue from the rate rebasing in 2027, which is 8 months of the full year run rate of $125 million. Under the scenario for a partial year of new rates, the utility would manage to a core return on equity of approximately 7.3% to 7.8%. That is equivalent to approximately 8.3% to 8.8% under a full year of new rates, reflecting the full $125 million base rate increase.

The partial year and full year ROE scenarios do not include the potential impacts from new performance incentive mechanisms or other changes to the PBR framework that are being considered under Phase 6 of the PBR proceeding. These scenarios are illustrative, and the timing and outcome of the PUC's decision remain uncertain. If the PUC approves the PIMs package proposed by the company in the Phase 6 PBR proceeding, the potential upside of up to 150 basis points of ROE in PIMs would be approximately $33 million. The potential downside from up to 50 basis points of ROE and PIM penalties would be approximately $11 million.

Turning next to our financing plans. Our strong quarter end liquidity provides significant flexibility as we look ahead toward funding our CapEx and the remaining wildfire settlement payments. We have already prepaid $80 million toward the second settlement payment, reducing the $479 million amount due by $82 million after reflecting the early payment discount. In addition, we expect to prepay at least another $100 million before the April 2027 due date using proceeds from the potential sale of our remaining shares of ASB and expected insurance proceeds. If completed as expected, these prepayments would reduce the amount remaining due in April to below $300 million.

We still expect to finance the remainder of the second payment with straight debt or convertible debt. We have a variety of financing options available, and with strong liquidity, we have flexibility on timing as market conditions evolve. We also have the option to make some or all of the remaining settlement payments early, with a discount applied based on an annualized rate of 5.5%.

We will continue to evaluate additional prepayments against our financing costs and liquidity needs. Our financing strategy will focus on minimizing shareholder dilution while building toward investment-grade credit metrics over the long term. We believe achieving those metrics, together with the implementation of the wildfire protections contemplated by Act 258 and completion of the remaining settlement payments, would provide a credible path back to investment-grade. The timing and outcome of any rating actions remain at the discretion of the rating agencies. As our financial position strengthens, our Board of Directors may revisit our dividend policy with a longer-term objective of reaching a payout ratio consistent with peer utilities.

We'll now open up the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Michael Lonegan with Barclays.

질의응답

Michael Lonegan

So you talked about the early payment approach for the wildfire liabilities. So I was just wondering if you could share if you're leaning more towards -- for the remaining amount, more towards debt or convertible debt? And is this something you could expect in the near term or closer to the April due date for the PEP payment?

Paul Ito

Mike, this is Paul. So just to clarify, you're asking about the second settlement payment that's coming up specifically?

Michael Lonegan

Yes.

Paul Ito

Okay. Yes. So let me just start where we're at and what our plan is as we get to the April settlement payment date. So as I said on the call, we've already prepaid $80 million at a discount. And so that reduces the remaining amount to about $400 million.

We expect to obtain additional proceeds to do a prepayment from our remaining ASB stake. And we also expect additional insurance proceeds. And so roughly speaking, that's a little bit over $100 million, and that would allow us to prepay to further reduce the amount to $300 million or slightly less.

In terms of the remaining $300 million and how we would finance that, our plans remain consistent with what we said before. It will be debt or convertible debt. We're looking at both. Obviously, we're watching market conditions. And we're going to look at the trade-offs between the two and then make a decision at the appropriate moment, but that's our current plan.

Michael Lonegan

And then I was wondering if you could talk about the status of the liability cap process, when we could expect updates on that? And could this potentially go through the -- in the next legislative session in 2027?

Scott W. Seu

Mike, this is Scott. So the process is still being overseen by the Public Utilities Commission. This is a formal rule-making process. They are in the midst of that. They have spent time seeking inputs from various stakeholders, including our company, and that's where it sits. The next step is really up to the PUC in terms of when they would be able to issue a set of draft rules for consideration. But obviously, that would be sometime in 2027.

Michael Lonegan

Okay. And then lastly for me, there are some tweaks to the 2027 and 2028 capital program. I was just wondering if you could walk us through what changed there? And then also, I know, like -- you've said the majority of your capital program will be funded with prior debt issuances and cash flow. Just -- do you expect to use your ATM much as well?

Paul Ito

So maybe I'll start with the ATM. Currently, based on where our stock price is, there's no plans to utilize that. As mentioned, currently, we don't pay a dividend. And so we would expect to fund largely our CapEx program through internally generated earnings, but also supplement that with debt.

In terms of changes to the CapEx program, I don't believe there was a significant change. Sometimes there's a shifting of EPRM timing of the capital. But generally, it remains largely consistent, I believe, with last quarter.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Scott Seu for closing remarks.

Scott W. Seu

Thank you. In summary, we continue to make good progress building on our record of strong execution. Our entire team is dedicated to best serving our customers, our community and our shareholders.

I'm happy to end this call by welcoming our newest Board member, Peter Ho, to our HEI and Hawaiian Electric Ohana. Peter recently retired as Chairman and CEO of the Bank of Hawaii, a position he held for 16 years. He brings a wealth of knowledge and experience in finance, customer service, the Hawaii community and public company leadership to our Board, and I look forward to working with him. Mahalo for attending our earnings call today. Take care.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.