골드만삭스 BDC 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 컨퍼런스콜: 레버리지 하락, 무수익여신 증가

핵심 요약

• 골드만삭스 BDC는 2026년 3분기 순투자수익으로 3,530만 달러(주당 0.32달러)를 기록해 기본 배당금과 일치시켰으며, 장부가치 기준 연환산 수익률은 약 10.9%를 나타냈다.
• 주당 순자산가치(NAV)는 2분기 12.06달러에서 11.70달러로 감소했는데, 이는 주로 소수의 과거 빈티지 투자 건에 집중된 주당 0.36달러의 순실현 및 미실현 손실에 기인했다.
• 상환 및 자산 매각으로 부채 감축이 뒷받침되면서 순차입금비율은 1.35배에서 1.21배로 하락했다. 또한 GSBD는 1,500만 달러를 투입해 약 150만 주를 자사주로 매입했다.
• 신규 투자 약정액은 신규 차입자 7곳을 포함해 14개 포트폴리오 기업에 걸쳐 총 약 4,100만 달러를 기록했다. 신규 포트폴리오 기업 투자는 모두 선순위 담보 대출이었으며, SOFR 대비 가중평균 스프레드는 약 550bp였다.
• 신용 위험은 증가했다. 공정가치 기준 무수익여신 비중은 2.9%에서 4.2%로 상승했으며, 해당 포트폴리오 기업 수는 10개에서 11개로 늘어났다.
• 이사회는 2026년 4분기 기본 배당금으로 주당 0.32달러를 결의했다. GSBD는 주당 0.87달러에 해당하는 9,670만 달러의 미분배 과세소득을 보유하며 분기를 마감했다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 영업 실적

GSBD의 포트폴리오는 자본구조의 최상단에 집중된 상태를 유지했으며, 공정가치 기준 투자의 98.6%가 선순위 담보부 부채로 구성됐다. 포트폴리오의 약 89.5%는 회사의 내부 4단계 척도에서 2등급을 받아 대체로 기대치에 부합하는 성과를 나타냈다. 또한 6.2%는 3등급, 4.3%는 4등급으로 평가됐다.

포트폴리오 기업들의 가중평균 EBITDA는 약 1억 1,740만 달러, 가중평균 순차입금/EBITDA 비율은 6.3배였으며, 이자보상배율은 2분기 2.0배에서 1.9배로 하락했다. 경영진은 이자보상배율 하락의 원인이 전반적인 영업 부진보다는 포트폴리오 교체에 있다고 설명했다. 두 분기 모두 포트폴리오에 유지된 기업들은 더 높은 가중평균 이자보상배율을 기록했다.

회사는 연간 반복 매출(ARR) 대출 익스포저를 지속적으로 축소했다. 공정가치 기준 ARR 대출 비중은 2022년 3분기 약 39%에서 약 7%로 감소했다. 해당 분기 중 약 5,000만 달러 규모의 ARR 대출이 액면가로 전액 상환됐다.

신규 약정액은 14개 기업에 걸쳐 총 약 4,100만 달러를 기록했다. 이 중 7곳은 GSBD의 신규 차입자였으며, 모든 신규 포트폴리오 기업 투자는 선순위 담보 대출이었다. SOFR 대비 약 550bp의 가중평균 스프레드는 해당 분기에 상환된 대출 스프레드보다 소폭 확대됐다.

정상 채권 투자의 약 98%가 변동금리 조건이다. 경영진은 기준금리 상승이 포트폴리오 기업들의 차입 비용을 늘릴 수 있지만, 투자수익에는 긍정적으로 작용할 것이라고 밝혔다.

경영진 전망

경영진은 레버리지를 크게 늘리기보다는 지속적인 상환금을 재투자하는 데 자본 집행을 주로 집중할 것으로 예상했다. 회사는 현재 1.21배의 순차입금비율이 안정적인 수준이라고 설명하며, 경쟁 심화로 시장 조건이 타이트하게 유지됨에 따라 선별적 기조를 유지하겠다고 밝혔다.

GSBD는 직전 12개 분기 성과 산정 방식에 따라 2026년 4분기에도 성과보수가 미미한 수준에 머물 것으로 예상한다. 이사회는 포트폴리오의 수익 창출력, 금리 및 회사의 전반적인 재무 상태를 바탕으로 분기마다 배당금을 지속적으로 평가할 방침이다.

경영진은 최근 몇 달간 딜 활동과 거래 파이프라인이 개선되기 시작했으나, 실제 집행 시점은 거시경제 환경에 좌우될 것이라고 강조했다. 또한 구체적인 전망치를 제시하지는 않았으나, 스폰서들의 자본 회수 요구에 따라 사모펀드(PE) 거래 활동이 점차 늘어날 것으로 예상했다.

위험 요인 및 주목할 점

• 무수익여신 투자는 공정가치 기준 4.2%, 상각후원가 기준 7.3%로 증가했다. 경영진은 유동성이 낮은 사모 신용 포지션을 정리하는 데 상당한 시간이 걸릴 수 있다고 언급했다.
• 순자산가치(NAV)에 대한 하방 압력은 소수의 과거 빈티지 포지션에 여전히 집중됐다. 포트폴리오의 50% 미만이 2022년 이전 빈티지로 구성돼 있으나, 2026년 중 발생한 상환의 64% 이상은 과거 빈티지에서 비롯됐다.
• 3분기 순투자수익은 기본 배당금을 충당하는 수준에 그쳤으며 성과보수는 발생하지 않았다. 경영진은 주당 0.87달러의 미분배 과세소득이 향후 배당 부족분을 메울 수 있는 완충재 역할을 할 수 있다고 언급했다.
• 3분기까지 미주 지역의 스폰서 M&A 규모는 전년 동기 대비 약 13% 감소해 신규 거래의 전체적인 기회를 제한했다.
• 사모 신용 시장 일부에서는 자본 공급이 투자 가능한 자산을 지속적으로 초과하면서 스프레드와 대출 조건에 하방 압력을 가하고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

레버리지 및 자본 집행: 경영진은 GSBD의 현재 레버리지 수준이 안정적이며, 상환금을 주로 신규 투자에 재투자할 방침이라고 밝혔다. 자본 집행은 매력적인 위험조정수익률을 제공하는 투자 기회를 발굴하는 데 달려 있을 것이다.

무수익여신 해결: 회사는 부실 포지션별로 스폰서, 대주단 및 전담 구조조정 조직과 협력하고 있다. 경영진은 기초자산이 비공개 자산이자 비유동성 자산이기 때문에 문제 해결에 시간이 걸린다고 설명했다.

배당금 충당 여력: 4분기 기본 배당금은 주당 0.32달러로 유지된다. 경영진은 4분기에도 성과보수가 미미할 것으로 예상하며 9,670만 달러의 미분배 과세소득을 강조하는 한편, 향후 배당 결정은 포트폴리오의 수익 창출력과 재무 상태에 달려 있다는 점을 재확인했다.

대출 실행 전망: 경영진은 최근 몇 달간 파이프라인이 한층 견조해졌다고 밝혔으나, 딜 집행 시점의 불확실성은 여전하다고 말했다. 그러면서도 사모펀드들의 자본 회수 필요성이 점차 거래 활동을 뒷받침할 것으로 예상했다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Haley Neveen

Good morning, and thank you for joining us. My name is Haley Neveen, Head of the Investor Relations team for Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc., and I would like to welcome everyone to the Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions].

Before we begin today's call, I would like to remind our listeners that today's remarks may include forward-looking statements. These statements represent the company's beliefs regarding future events that, by their nature, are uncertain and outside of the company's control. The company's actual results and financial condition may differ possibly materially from what is indicated in those forward-looking statements as a result of a number of factors, including those described from time to time in the company's SEC filings. This audiocast is copyrighted material of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. and may not be duplicated, reproduced or rebroadcast without our consent.

Yesterday, after the market closed, the company issued an earnings press release and posted a supplemental earnings presentation, both of which can be found on the homepage of our website at www.goldmansachsbdc.com under the Investor Resources section and which include reconciliations of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. These documents should be reviewed in conjunction with the company's quarterly report on Form 10-Q filed yesterday with the SEC. This conference call is being recorded today, Friday, November 6, 2026, for replay purposes.

Now I'll turn the call over to Vivek Bantwal, Co-Chief Executive Officer of Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, Haley. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our third quarter earnings conference call. I'm here today with David Miller, my Co-Chief Executive Officer; Tucker Greene and Justin Betzen, our Co-Presidents and Co-Chief Operating Officers; and Stan Matuszewski, our Chief Financial Officer. This morning, you will hear from Justin for the first time. We're excited to have him here with us today and to join future earnings calls.

I'll begin with the quarter's highlights and our results. Justin will then walk through the market and our deployment activity. Tucker will cover the portfolio and credit quality, and Stan will take us through the quarter's financial results. To close, David will share some thoughts before we open the line for questions.

Last quarter, we laid out a clear set of priorities, and I'd like to start by updating you on our progress. First, we told you reducing leverage was a focus, and we followed through. Net debt to equity declined to 1.21x as of September 30, 2026, from 1.35x at the end of the second quarter. Second, while keeping a conservative approach to leverage, we continue to invest selectively in what remained an attractive environment for new loans. Originations outpaced last quarter's levels as we were able to invest in 7 new portfolio companies at a weighted average spread of approximately 550 basis points over SOFR. And third, to enhance shareholder value, we began executing on the share repurchase plan, buying back approximately $15 million of stock during the third quarter. In summary, each of these actions reflect the same priority, strengthening our balance sheet while staying disciplined in how we put capital to work.

Now let me turn to the results. For the third quarter, GSBD generated net investment income of $0.32 per share, in line with our base dividend, representing an annualized yield on book value of approximately 10.9%. Quarter-over-quarter, the results reflected a smaller portfolio size following our deleveraging and lower income resulting from investments placed on nonaccrual during the quarter. Those factors were partially offset by lower interest expense and management fees. Given these results, the Board has declared a fourth quarter 2026 base dividend of $0.32 per share payable to shareholders of record as of December 31, 2026. As a reminder, our Board continues to evaluate the dividend each quarter based on the earnings power of the portfolio, the rate environment and our overall financial position.

Net asset value ended the quarter at $11.70 per share compared with $12.06 at the end of the second quarter, driven primarily by realized and unrealized losses concentrated in a small number of older vintage positions. The credits that impacted this quarter's results reflect company-specific challenges rather than the broad macro environment. During the quarter, strong repayment and sales activity gave us capital to fund new investments, pay down debt and repurchase shares. Together, these actions optimize our balance sheet and position us to respond to attractive investment opportunities as they arise.

Turning to the broader environment. The macro backdrop continued to evolve this quarter. Inflation remained above the Federal Reserve's target range. The Fed raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and geopolitical developments affected transaction timelines across the market. In our portfolio, roughly 98% of our performing debt is floating rate, so GSBD's investment income will benefit from higher base rates going forward. While higher rates could also raise borrowing costs for our portfolio companies, our current portfolio has been operating in a high base rate environment for several years now.

Many of these capital structures were put in place after base rates increased. So this rate environment was factored in from the outset. Although the interest coverage ratio marginally declined from 2.0x to 1.9x quarter-over-quarter, this was driven by a rotation of certain companies out of the portfolio and not underlying portfolio company stress. Excluding exited deals, companies that remained in the portfolio quarter-over-quarter saw an increase in the weighted average interest coverage.

Justin, the market shifted quite a bit over the course of the quarter. Can you talk about what we're seeing and how it shaped our deployment?

Justin Betzen

Happy to share my view, Vivek, and I'm very excited to be with you all here today. During the third quarter, new deal activity remained light with slower M&A as the market worked through the backdrop Vivek described. Even so, we were able to find attractive places to deploy with new commitments for the fund spanning both new borrowers and existing portfolio companies. Overall transaction volumes remain muted with sponsor M&A volume in the Americas down approximately 13% year-over-year through the third quarter.

For GSBD, a softer market rewards selectivity over volume. Transactions are still getting done and the breadth of our platform gives us access to differentiated opportunities. More broadly, the market followed more normalized dynamics this quarter compared with the dislocation we experienced in the first half. Much of the spread volatility we saw earlier in the year, including the software sell-off, proved largely technical rather than fundamental. As those concerns eased, conditions settled into a more balanced environment for both investors and borrowers.

However, software remains the exception where conditions are still more favorable to lenders. The software businesses coming to market are primarily high quality, and those deals are being done at wider spreads and with tighter terms than they would have commanded in prior vintages. What's driving the current pricing is the balance of supply and demand with more capital competing for a limited pool of transactions. Adding to that, the syndicated market was an attractive refinancing channel for direct lending borrowers this quarter with a record of approximately $11.8 billion of direct lending deals refinanced. This broadly syndicated activity is healthy for the market overall, and we compete well when sponsors are seeking certainty of execution, the ability to underwrite a full capital structure and a lender with deep industry expertise.

A good example this quarter was a sponsor-backed acquisition of an industrial services business, where our platform served as administrative agent and the largest lender in the financing. The opportunity came through collaboration with the broader GS ecosystem and our ability to make a large early commitment gave the sponsor certainty of execution, which positioned us to lead the transaction. The company provides nondiscretionary services that help protect and extend the life of critical industrial assets.

During the quarter, we made new investment commitments of approximately $41 million across 14 portfolio companies, 7 of which were new borrowers to GSBD. All new portfolio companies were first lien at a weighted average spread of approximately 550 basis points over SOFR, slightly wider than the loans that were repaid during the quarter. So even in a more competitive market, we continue to put capital to work at spreads at or above the deals we exited. There's been significant focus in the market on potential disruption from AI, but that's not what we're seeing across our portfolio. Across the private credit platform, broader AI spending is benefiting companies in multiple industries, including industrials, environmental services and businesses adjacent to direct AI investment, such as grid hardening.

Vivek, back to you.

Vivek Bantwal

Thanks, Justin. And one point here I want to emphasize. Amid the attention on private credit this year, our focus at GSBD remains on disciplined underwriting and ongoing portfolio management to support shareholder outcomes. Looking ahead, with the capacity we've created on the balance sheet, we're well positioned to be selective, finding the deals that strike the right balance between pricing and risk.

Tucker, could you walk us through how that discipline is reflected in the portfolio?

Tucker Greene

Thanks, Vivek. I'd like to start with one of the repayments Justin mentioned because it says a lot about how we've been managing the portfolio. This quarter, a recurring revenue loan of nearly $50 million was repaid in full at par, demonstrating our deliberate work to reduce ARR exposure over the past several years. The percentage of ARR loans is down from nearly 39% of the portfolio at fair value in the third quarter of 2022 to approximately 7% today, largely through repayments at par or conversions to traditional cash flow structures. As this quarter demonstrates, software refinancings are still getting done, and we remain focused on reducing that number further.

The portfolio remains positioned at the top of the capital structure with 98.6% in senior secured debt at fair value. Total investments were $2.9 billion at fair value spread across 168 portfolio companies in 41 industries. Yields were relatively steady. The weighted average yield on our debt and income-producing investments was 11.9% at fair value and 9.7% at amortized cost, up from 9.5% at amortized cost last quarter. The portfolio's weighted average EBITDA is approximately $117.4 million with weighted average net debt to EBITDA of 6.3x and interest coverage of 1.9x. And on that same basis, our companies have continued to grow both revenue and EBITDA.

On credit quality, the vast majority of the portfolio continues to perform as expected. 89.5% of the portfolio at fair value remains rated 2 on our internal 1 to 4 scale, meaning the borrower is generally performing as expected. Another 6.2% of the portfolio is rated 3, meaning risk has increased materially since origination. The remaining 4.3% is rated 4. Many of these are long-time watch list names we know well and have been monitoring closely.

Investments on nonaccrual status increased to approximately 4.2% of the portfolio at fair value from 2.9% last quarter and to 7.3% at amortized cost from 5% over the same period. During the quarter, investments in 2 portfolio companies as well as additional tranches in 2 existing nonaccrual names were placed on nonaccrual status, partially offset by investment that was restored to accrual status following improved performance. The number of portfolio companies with investments on nonaccrual status increased from 10 to 11. We're actively engaged on every one of these positions, and our focus is on maximizing recoveries for shareholders. Our experience with our dedicated restructuring team working through prior situations gives us confidence in that process.

Stan, can you take us through our financial results?

Stanley Matuszewski

Thank you, Tucker. I'll begin with an overview of leverage. As Vivek mentioned, our net debt-to-equity ratio was 1.21x as of September 30 compared to 1.35x at the end of the second quarter due to elevated sales and repayment activity. During the quarter, we repurchased about 1.5 million shares for approximately $15 million, which was accretive to net asset value per share. As a reminder, the Board has authorized a $75 million share repurchase program.

On earnings, third quarter GAAP after-tax net investment income was $35.3 million compared to $42.2 million in the second quarter. Total investment income was $75 million compared with $83.7 million last quarter. The decline reflected a smaller portfolio and the impact of investments placed on nonaccrual. Separately, interest and other debt expense declined to $29.1 million from $30.1 million and management fees declined to $7.7 million from $8.2 million. These partially offset the reduction in investment income.

Turning to the incentive fee, which Vivek mentioned earlier. It is meant to reflect performance over a longer period rather than any single quarter. Given the trailing 12-quarter results, no incentive fee was earned this quarter. As Vivek noted, net asset value per share declined $0.36 during the quarter, that was primarily driven by $0.36 per share of net realized and unrealized losses and the $0.03 per share second quarter supplemental distribution, partially offset by $0.03 of NAV accretion from share repurchases.

Net investment income was in line with our base dividend. We had approximately $96.7 million or $0.87 per share of undistributed taxable income at quarter end. Finally, we believe our liability structure remains a durable competitive advantage. At quarter end, we had just over $1 billion of remaining revolver capacity against approximately $1.7 billion of total outstanding debt principal with roughly 72% of that in unsecured debt.

With that, I'll turn it back to Vivek.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, Stan. To sum up, with leverage meaningfully lower, ample liquidity and a well-structured liability profile, we have real flexibility and in the current market, that flexibility is valuable. Our priorities are clear: work through the investments on nonaccrual to maximize recoveries, maintain a conservative balance sheet, deploy capital when risk-adjusted returns are compelling and continue to evaluate share repurchases against new investments.

Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to turn it over to David for some closing thoughts.

David Miller

Thank you, Vivek. I shared most of my reflections back in August, so I'll keep this brief. Our private credit platform is in very good hands. The bench here is as deep as any in the industry, and I've been fortunate to work alongside many of these colleagues for many years. To our Board, to our shareholders and most of all, to my colleagues. Thank you. I'll remain on the investment committee, so I'm not going far, and I look forward to watching this team's continued success.

Vivek, back to you.

Vivek Bantwal

Thank you, David. On behalf of everyone at this table and everyone who has worked alongside you, and thank you all for joining us this morning. With that, let's open the line for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Arren Cyganovich with Truist.

질의응답

Arren Cyganovich

Maybe just talk to start about -- you deleveraged. You're talking about having additional room to, I guess, be a little bit more active on the origination side now that you have some capacity. You're at a kind of normal kind of leverage level now. It would just -- I'm assuming this would still just be kind of more like rotation for new investments versus actually expanding leverage from here. Is that correct?

Tucker Greene

Arren, it's Tucker. Yes, that's right. We're at a comfortable leverage level right now. We have continued repayments this quarter. So we're primarily looking at recycling into -- as long as the spread environment remains robust as we saw in the last quarter, spreads have tightened a bit, but we're looking at some pretty interesting opportunities to invest in. But we'll primarily do recycling as we look at repayments continue to come through.

Arren Cyganovich

Okay. And on the nonaccrual side, you're up to a fairly high level comparative to peers right now. I know you're working through some kind of legacy originations. Where would you say you are in that process of, I guess, rotating out of older positions that maybe you wouldn't have put on versus the rest of the portfolio?

Justin Betzen

Arren, it's Justin Betzen. On our nonaccruals, we added 2 names to nonaccrual this quarter. Then we added some additional tranches of existing names to nonaccrual, and we're actively focused on all of these names. And as you can imagine, given the nature of the illiquid private nature of the company, it takes a long time to work through.

We've got dedicated resources in-house to help us do that. We're actively engaged with sponsors and the lender group and actively working on all these situations. It just takes time to work through some of these, but we continue to be very focused on it. I think in terms of the legacy portfolio that you mentioned and kind of where are we on that? I think it's just under 50% of the total portfolio remains kind of the pre-2022 vintages. I also note that over 64% of our repayment activity this year has been from the older vintage.

Arren Cyganovich

Okay. And then just lastly, your earnings met the dividend this quarter, but there wasn't any incentive fee expense during this quarter, which is by design, and it's a good shareholder-friendly fee. I guess my question is that once that starts to kick back in, assuming you have a good performance ahead, it will be difficult to cover the dividend from this current level. What are your thoughts on dividend coverage into next year?

Stanley Matuszewski

Yes. So Arren, it's Sam Matuszewski. Just on the incentive fee, I agree with everything you said. And then looking at the 12-quarter look back, we do anticipate that, that incentive fee is going to be quite muted in the fourth quarter as well, as you may already know.

In terms of the dividend, so our Board of Directors already authorized a $0.32 per share dividend for December 31. And we are constantly assessing the earnings power of the platform as we think about coverage of that dividend going forward. As a reminder, we do have $97 million or $0.87 per share of spillover income. So we do think that, that provides a bridge for any shortfall. But as we think about it, we certainly intend to transparently communicate any changes in our dividend policy when appropriate.

Operator

We'll take our next question from Heli Sheth with Raymond James.

Heli Sheth

So on activity, what should we expect in terms of pacing for both repayments and originations for both the remainder of the year and into 2027? Obviously, 2026 was a pretty stagnant M&A environment. So are there -- what are the near-term catalysts that could drive more activity?

Vivek Bantwal

Yes. Listen, it's a good question. Look, obviously, we've had a few kind of different periods in terms of the macro as sort of the year has evolved, and it's, in fact, obviously still evolving with the elections this week and kind of the resulting impact on what we've seen in public equity markets. And so all of those things are going to sort of play through at a macro level. I'd say that from a deal perspective, in the last couple of months, actually, there has been kind of a healthy level of activity kind of starting to pick up from a backlog perspective.

As you know, there is a lag time between when these deals sort of come in the door versus when auctions conclude, purchase agreements get signed and the deals actually execute. And of course, the macro is going to have an impact on that. When you look year-over-year, sponsor M&A volume is lower. I think there is a sense that, that will turn around at some point because when you look at the age of historical vintages and you look at historical measures of DPI in the private equity community, they have lagged where they have been historically. And so there's a sense that as private equity firms kind of start to focus on returning capital to shareholders that they'll need to transact by selling things, which will then create the opportunity for other sponsors to sort of buy things.

That didn't happen this year because of that macro, but there's a sense that, that will happen. So it's a little bit hard to predict in any given month, what kind of that environment looks like. But the direction of travel, I think, is certainly as we look forward here, that we'll see more deals over time. In the meantime, I will say that we're very fortunate that given our origination funnel, the deals that we are seeing are actually very attractive and we really like them. So again, if we had a choice of there being more deals versus fewer, we'd be happy to see more good deals, but the deals that we are seeing are good deals, and we're happy to put capital to work in those.

Heli Sheth

Got it. And then a quick follow-up. I believe you mentioned on the repayments you're getting, you're redeploying at higher yields. Can you talk a little bit more about what trends you're seeing going forward in terms of the yields on repayments versus redeployments? Like do you continue to expect to redeploy at higher spreads? Or is that just kind of more in the near term?

Tucker Greene

It's largely dependent upon the capital markets and the competitive nature and how many deals are coming to market. I think in the last quarter, as we mentioned, we were able to deploy at very attractive yields relative to what was running off. The overall market remains relatively competitive from a capital standpoint. And so market terms continue to be pretty tight. I think the good thing, and as Vivek mentioned, our origination platform is unique. We do see some opportunities unique to our platform where we are able to get more attractive terms. But there still is a supply-demand imbalance in terms of capital and assets.

Operator

At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn it back to Vivek for any additional or closing remarks.

Vivek Bantwal

Thanks, everyone, for joining us. We look forward to following up. Have a good day.