제리스 바이오파마(XERS) 2026년 3분기 실적 콘퍼런스콜: 매출 가이던스 상향
제리스 바이오파마(XERS)는 2026년 3분기 총매출이 전년 동기 대비 44% 증가한 1억 720만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다. 레코를레브 순매출이 7,150만 달러로 성장을 주도했으며, 순이익은 1,130만 달러로 개선되었다. 경영진은 2026년 연간 총매출 가이던스를 3억 9,500만~4억 500만 달러로 상향 조정했다. 또한, 레코를레브의 성장세와 상업용 브랜드의 기여를 바탕으로 2030년 총매출 전망치를 10억 달러 이상으로 높였다. 회사는 2026년 말까지 XP-8121의 임상 3상을 개시할 계획이며, 2030년 승인 및 출시를 목표로 하고 있다.
핵심 요약
- 제리스 바이오파마(XERS)는 2026년 3분기 총매출이 전년 동기 대비 44%, 전분기 대비 16% 증가한 1억 720만 달러를 기록했다고 발표했다.
- 레코를레브 순매출은 사상 최대 처방 의뢰, 신규 환자 치료 개시, 영업 조직 확대에 따른 생산성 향상에 힘입어 전년 동기 대비 93% 증가한 7,150만 달러에 달했다.
- 조정 EBITDA는 77% 증가한 3,080만 달러를 기록했으며, 순이익은 전년 동기의 60만 달러에서 1,130만 달러로 증가했다.
- 경영진은 2026년 연간 총매출 가이던스를 중간값 기준 약 37% 성장을 나타내는 3억 9,500만~4억 500만 달러로 상향 조정했다.
- 회사는 3개 상업용 브랜드 모두의 기여와 레코를레브의 핵심 성장 동력 유지를 바탕으로 2030년 총매출 전망치를 기존 7억 5,000만 달러에서 10억 달러 이상으로 상향했다.
- 제리스는 2026년 말까지 XP-8121의 중추적 임상 3상 코너스톤(Cornerstone) 연구를 개시할 계획이며, 2028년 말 톱라인 데이터 발표와 2030년 승인 및 출시 가능성을 목표로 순조롭게 일정을 진행하고 있다.
주요 재무 실적
| 지표 | 2026년 3분기 | 변동 / 비교 | 비고 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 총매출 | 1억 720만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +44%, 전분기 대비 +16% | 분기 사상 최대 매출 |
| 순제품매출 | 1억 630만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +43% | 3,220만 달러 증가 |
| 레코를레브 순매출 | 7,150만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +93%, 전분기 대비 +26% | 영업 조직 확대로 처방 의뢰 및 환자 치료 개시 증가 |
| 지보크 순매출 | 2,170만 달러 | 2,520만 달러에서 감소 | 400만 달러의 일회성 메디케이드 총매출-순매출(gross-to-net) 조정 포함 |
| 케베이이스 순매출 | 1,300만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +9% | 4개 분기 연속 전년 동기 대비 성장 |
| 매출총이익률 | 88% | 전년 동기 85% | 유리한 제품 믹스에 따른 개선 |
| 연구개발(R&D) 비용 | 1,110만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +360만 달러 | XP-8121 투자 반영 |
| 판관비 | 6,410만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +1,760만 달러 | 주로 영업 인력 비용 증가에 기인 |
| 조정 EBITDA | 3,080만 달러 | 전년 동기 대비 +77% | 1,330만 달러 증가 |
| 순이익 | 1,130만 달러 | 전년 동기 60만 달러 | 수익성 개선 |
사업 및 영업 실적
레코를레브
레코를레브는 제리스의 최대 성장 동력 자리를 지켰다. 순매출은 전년 동기 대비 3,460만 달러 증가한 7,150만 달러를 기록했다. 경영진은 이러한 성장 가속화가 1월에 단행된 영업 조직 확장에 힘입은 것이며, 기존 및 신규 처방의 모두에서 성장이 나타났다고 설명했다.
회사는 고코르티솔혈증에 대한 선별 검사 확대도 주요 요인으로 언급했다. 미국당뇨병학회와 유럽당뇨병학회의 개정 가이드라인에는 조절이 어려운 제2형 당뇨병에 대한 추가 선별 검사 권고가 포함되었다. 경영진은 이러한 시장 환경이 2027년 이후까지 레코를레브의 성장을 뒷받침할 것으로 기대하고 있다.
지보크
지보크 처방은 개학 시즌 수요 증가를 반영해 전분기 대비 20%, 전년 동기 대비 5% 늘어났다. 다만 메디케이드 유통 경로에서 400만 달러 규모의 일회성 총매출-순매출 조정이 발생하면서 분기 순매출은 2,170만 달러로 감소했다.
경영진은 기저 수요가 4분기에도 이어지고 있으며 지보크가 꾸준한 처방 수량 및 매출 성장세로 복귀할 것으로 전망했다. 아울러 회사는 상당한 처방 격차가 존재한다고 강조했다. 즉, 즉시 사용 가능한 글루카곤 제제를 이용해야 하는 당뇨병 환자가 약 1,500만 명에 달하지만, 현재 실제로 이용하는 환자는 약 100만 명에 불과하다는 점을 짚었다.
케베이이스
케베이이스는 전년 동기 대비 9% 증가한 1,300만 달러의 순매출을 올렸다. 새로 충원된 영업 인력이 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 불과 몇 주 전에 교육을 마쳤기 때문에, 경영진은 이들의 기여 효과가 주로 4분기와 2027년에 가시화될 것으로 예상하고 있다.
미국 특허청은 10월 13일 케베이이스에 대한 신규 특허를 발급해 최소 2043년까지 특허 보호 기간을 확보했다. 제리스는 원발성 주기성 마비(PPP) 환자를 발굴하고 지원하기 위한 투자를 확대할 계획이다.
XP-8121 파이프라인
제리스는 2026년 말까지 중추적 임상 3상 코너스톤(Cornerstone) 연구를 시작할 계획이다. 톱라인 데이터는 2028년 말에 발표될 예정이며, 이어 2030년에 승인 및 출시가 가능할 것으로 전망된다. 더 폭넓은 개발 프로그램에는 소아 대상 캡스톤(Capstone) 연구와 경구 치료에도 불구하고 증상 조절이 일정하지 않은 환자를 대상으로 한 터치스톤(Touchstone) 연구도 포함된다.
10월 6일 XP-8121을 보호하는 세 번째 미국 특허가 승인되어 2043년 10월까지 특허 보호가 강화되었다. 경영진은 최대 매출 잠재력을 10억~30억 달러로 추정하면서도, 이것이 장기적인 상업적 기회라는 점을 강조했다.
경영진 가이던스
제리스는 2026년 연간 총매출 가이던스를 3억 9,500만~4억 500만 달러로 상향했다. 이는 중간값 기준 전년 대비 약 37% 성장을 나타낸다. 매출총이익률 가이던스는 기존대로 유지되었으며, 경영진은 2025년 대비 개선이 지속될 것으로 보고 있다.
연간 연구개발(R&D) 비용은 기존 전망치였던 2,500만 달러 증가에서 낮아져 2025년 대비 약 1,500만 달러 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 이번 수정은 개발 계획의 변경이 아니라 XP-8121 관련 특정 비용의 집행 시기를 반영한 결과다.
판관비는 이전 추정치인 5,000만 달러 증가 대비 늘어나 2025년 대비 약 6,000만 달러 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 인건비 및 단기 포트폴리오 성장 기회에 대한 투자를 증가 원인으로 꼽았다.
경영진은 2030년 총매출이 기존 전망치인 7억 5,000만 달러에서 증가해 10억 달러를 넘어설 것으로 내다보고 있다. 회사는 또한 레코를레브가 당초 예상보다 3~4년 앞당겨 연간 순매출 10억 달러에 도달하는 경로를 밟고 있다고 밝혔다.
위험 요인 및 주시 사항
- 레코를레브 처방을 받기 위해서는 여전히 사전 승인 및 의학적 필요성 입증 서류가 요구된다. 경영진은 이러한 보험 적용 환경이 단기적으로 바뀌지 않을 것으로 보고 있다.
- 지보크의 3분기 보고 매출은 처방 수요 증가에도 불구하고 400만 달러 규모의 일회성 메디케이드 총매출-순매출 조정의 영향을 받았다.
- XP-8121 개발 지출 시기가 조정되면서 2026년 예상 연구개발(R&D) 비용 증가폭이 둔화되었다. 경영진은 연내 개시를 예상하고 있으나, 중추적 연구는 아직 시작되지 않았다.
- 상향된 2030년 전망치를 달성하기 위해서는 레코를레브, 지보크, 케베이이스의 지속적인 기여가 전제되어야 하며, 레코를레브가 핵심 동력으로 남을 것으로 예상된다.
애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 하이라이트
애널리스트들은 주로 레코를레브의 성장세 가속화와 2030년 전망치 상향의 전제 조건에 주목했다. 경영진은 레코를레브의 성장이 신규 및 기존 처방의 전반에 걸쳐 광범위하게 나타나고 있으며, 고코르티솔혈증 선별 검사 확대가 이를 뒷받침하고 있다고 밝혔다.
특허 보호와 관련해 경영진은 물질특허를 포함한 XP-8121의 미국 특허 3건이 견고한 토대가 된다고 설명했다. 또한 새로 발급된 케베이이스 특허로 제리스는 원발성 주기성 마비(PPP) 시장에 장기적으로 투자할 수 있는 더 큰 확신을 갖게 되었다고 덧붙였다.
자본 배분과 관련해 경영진은 기존 상업화 제품과 XP-8121에 대한 추가 투자를 우선순위로 꼽았다. 여유 자본이 남을 경우, 제리스는 기존 상업적 입지에 부합하면서 2030년 이전에 매출을 더할 수 있는 사업 개발 기회를 고려할 수 있다고 설명했다.
경영진은 또한 선별 검사가 내분비 전문의를 넘어 난치성 심혈관 대사 질환, 당뇨병, 비만을 진료하는 1차 진료 현장으로 확대됨에 따라, 향후 레코를레브 투자가 임상 근거 확보를 포함할 것이라고 밝혔다.
실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문
전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록
경영진 발표
Operator
Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to Xeris Biopharma Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I will now hand the conference over to Cristi Barnett, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Cristi Barnett
Thank you, Bella. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Xeris Biopharma's Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results Conference Call. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release detailing our third quarter 2026 financial and operating results. This press release can be found on our website at xerispharma.com. Joining me on today's call are John Shannon, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Pieper, our Chief Financial Officer. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call for your questions.
Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements regarding Xeris' future expectations, plans, strategies, objectives and financial performance, including our full year 2026 financial guidance and our 2030 outlook. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current assumptions and beliefs and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, please refer to the risk factors described in our filings with the SEC, including our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequent filings with the SEC as well as the forward-looking statements disclaimer in our earnings release. Any forward-looking statements made on this call speak only as of today's date. And except as required by law, the company undertakes no obligation to update or revise these statements.
In addition, during today's call, we will reference certain financial measures that are presented on a non-GAAP basis. A reconciliation of these non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is included in our earnings release.
Before I turn it over to John, I'd like to briefly introduce myself. I'm Cristi Barnett, and I recently joined Xeris to lead Investor Relations following Allison Wey's retirement. Some of you may know me from my previous companies. And for those who I haven't yet met, I look forward to connecting and working with you. We will miss Allison here at Xeris, and I'm pleased to carry the Investor Relations baton forward. I look forward to an open dialogue and to keeping you informed about Xeris' progress.
And with that, I'll turn it over to John.
John Shannon
Thank you, Cristi, and welcome to Xeris. We're happy to have you on the team, and good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to report that Xeris had a spectacular third quarter, and we now see our company on a new growth curve, one that is both accelerating our near-term financial outlook and redefining what we believe is possible for this company. Importantly, this new trajectory reflects expected growth from the entire enterprise, Recorlev, Gvoke and Keveyis.
Total revenue grew more than 44% year-over-year, led by Recorlev, where the expanded commercial team moved from build to yield and delivered record referrals and new patient starts. Gvoke delivered a better-than-expected back-to-school prescription lift and prescription demand is back in solid growth mode. And Keveyis continued its steady high-value contribution. And now with the recently issued patent, we intend to intensify our efforts to identify more patients that could benefit from therapy.
Results like these reflect years of disciplined execution and focused innovation, and they reflect who Xeris has become, a leading endocrine and rare disease biopharmaceutical company committed to helping people realize better lives through the development and commercialization of innovative medicines. We convert innovation into durable revenue growth that continues to compound. This is our model, and this quarter is further evidence it is working.
Given the strong momentum across Recorlev, Gvoke and Keveyis, we are raising our full year total revenue guidance to $395 million to $405 million, and we see this new trajectory extending well beyond 2026. We are now on a path to reach more than $1 billion in total revenue in 2030, up from our prior outlook of $750 million, which we first disclosed back in June of 2025.
We also now see Recorlev on a path to $1 billion in annual net revenue 3 to 4 years sooner than we previously projected. These are meaningful increases to our expectations grounded in the progress we are making right now. We are building on a stronger foundation and creating a larger opportunity than we previously envisioned. And beyond 2030, we see significant incremental opportunity with our late-stage pipeline asset, XP-8121.
With that, let's turn to our brands, beginning with Recorlev. Recorlev continues to demonstrate exceptional momentum. And in the third quarter, it shifted into a higher gear. Net revenue increased to more than $71 million, an increase of 93% or $35 million year-over-year. Quarter after quarter, Recorlev has delivered exceptional growth that speaks to the execution by our commercial team and most importantly, the deepening confidence prescribers have in Recorlev as their treatment of choice for endogenous Cushing's syndrome.
We believe Recorlev should be the standard of care, and we intend to drive it there. On our last call, we said the benefits of our January commercial expansion would begin to show up in the third quarter, and they have. Our expanded team is trained, deployed and productive. We had a record number of new referrals, new patient starts in the quarter. The team's productivity is now running ahead of our expectations and is the key driver behind the upward revision of our 2026 and our 2030 outlook.
Also, favorable dynamics should continue to fuel an expansion of the hypercortisolism market. Just last month, the American Diabetes Association and the European Association for the Study of Diabetes issued updated guidance on the role of hypercortisolism in difficult-to-control type 2 diabetes and included recommendations for additional screening. Recorlev's growth continues to benefit from expanded screening that is helping clinicians to identify more patients.
Our Medical Affairs team recently convened our fourth Annual Cortisol Summit Scientific Advisory Board, bringing together leading pituitary and adrenal experts to advance research priorities and clinical management of Cushing's syndrome. And at the Cardiometabolic Health Congress, we presented real-world evidence illustrating the systemic benefits of cortisol normalization in a patient with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes, hypertension and multiple other comorbidities, further underscoring the significant and growing opportunity ahead for Recorlev.
Now turning to Gvoke. Gvoke delivered better-than-expected back-to-school prescription growth in the third quarter, with total prescriptions growing 20% over Q2 and 5% year-over-year. We continue to build the evidence base for ready-to-use glucagon. At the recent Breakthrough T1D Clinical & Research Congress, we presented real-world data on the gap between health care provider awareness of prescribing guidelines for ready-to-use glucagon and actual prescribing practices. That gap is precisely the opportunity in front of us. Of the roughly 15 million people with diabetes who should have a potentially life-saving product like Gvoke, only about 1 million do. Closing that gap remains an important opportunity for us and a meaningful way to improve patient lives.
I'm extremely proud of the team's work here. We began to see Gvoke demand generation build in the second quarter, accelerate in Q3 and carry right into Q4. Our prescription growth reflects improving underlying demand, giving us confidence that Gvoke is on a sustainable growth trajectory. And despite a one-time gross-to-net adjustment in the period, which Steve will walk through shortly, we are confident that Gvoke is now back to contributing steady unit and dollar growth in the future.
And finally, Keveyis. Keveyis delivered more than $13 million in net revenue, demonstrating the brand's continued strength as a meaningful growth contributor to our business going forward. Maintaining patients on therapy remains the ultimate proof point, and our results continue to reflect both the clinical value of Keveyis and the patient-centric support infrastructure we have built for the PPP community. And last month, our steadfast multiyear effort to secure important IP protection for Keveyis was realized. On October 13, the U.S. Patent Office issued a new patent covering Keveyis with protection through at least 2043. With this patent now issued and having demonstrated such remarkable durability, we are investing incrementally in Keveyis and the PPP community to identify and support even more patients.
Turning to our pipeline, specifically our late-stage XP-8121 program. In September, we hosted our XP-8121 program overview, providing a detailed look at our comprehensive clinical development strategy, including Cornerstone, our pivotal Phase III study designed for regulatory approval; Capstone, our pediatric study; and Touchstone, our study in patients with inconsistent control despite oral therapy. We remain on track to initiate Cornerstone by year-end with top line data expected in late 2028 and potential approval and launch in 2030. Since our September update, we have continued to advance all work required to initiate our Cornerstone Phase III study. We are especially encouraged by our start-up study activities and the enthusiasm of sites to participate in Cornerstone.
In parallel, our real-world evidence program continues to advance. This week, at the American Thyroid Association Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, we are presenting real-world evidence on biochemical control among patients treated with oral levothyroxine. These efforts are helping us deepen our understanding of the treatment challenges in hypothyroidism and further inform the opportunity for XP-8121.
We also continue to strengthen the intellectual property supporting XP-8121. On October 6, we were granted our third U.S. patent covering the program, reinforcing XP-8121's patent protection, which extends to October 2043. This patent represents another important milestone in building the long-term foundation for XP-8121. We believe XP-8121 has the potential to address persistent challenges faced by patients and health care providers in managing hypothyroidism. With peak sales potential of $1 billion to $3 billion, XP-8121 represents a significant long-term commercial opportunity and has the potential to become foundational to Xeris' future growth and long-term value creation.
Before I turn the call over to Steve, let me briefly recap the progress we are making against the 3 critical priorities we outlined in March and remain focused on. First, driving rapid revenue growth. Through the first 9 months of the year, total revenue grew 37% year-over-year. Based on that performance, we now expect full year revenue of $395 million to $405 million or growth of 37% at the midpoint. Second, advancing our pipeline. We laid out a comprehensive XP-8121 development program in September and remain on track to initiate our pivotal Phase III Cornerstone study by year-end. We also secured a third U.S. patent. And third, executing with discipline. Adjusted EBITDA grew 77% year-over-year, even as we continue to make strategic investments for growth.
Our record commercial momentum and disciplined execution against our strategic priorities positions us well for the future, and I am incredibly proud of the company we have built and confident in our ability to deliver long-term value for shareholders through the 2030s and beyond.
And with that, I'll turn the call over to Steve.
Steven Pieper
Thanks, John. Good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I would also like to welcome Cristi to the Xeris team. It's great to have you with us. As John highlighted, the third quarter delivered what we said it would. Our investments converting into growth with record revenue and continued adjusted EBITDA expansion.
Total revenue for the third quarter was $107.2 million, up 44% year-over-year and 16% sequentially. Net product revenue was $106.3 million, up 43% or $32.2 million year-over-year. Recorlev generated net revenue of $71.5 million, representing growth of 93% or $34.6 million year-over-year. On a sequential basis, net revenue increased $14.8 million or 26%. As John described, our expanded commercial team has moved from build to yield, and we expect continued contribution from that expansion in Q4 and beyond.
Gvoke generated net revenue of $21.7 million in the third quarter compared to $25.2 million in the third quarter of 2025. Gvoke prescription demand grew 5% year-over-year. This growth was offset by a $4 million one-time gross to net adjustment in our Medicaid channel. We believe Gvoke's return to growth in the third quarter is the beginning of a new growth trajectory.
Keveyis delivered another great quarter, generating net revenue of $13 million, representing growth of 9% compared to the prior year. This performance represents the fourth quarter in a row of year-over-year growth, fueling our confidence that Keveyis can contribute to our growth expectations longer term. Gross margin for the third quarter was 88% compared to 85% in the prior year period, and this improvement was driven by continued favorable product mix.
Turning to operating expenses. R&D expenses totaled $11.1 million in the third quarter, an increase of $3.6 million compared to prior year. This increase reflects continued investment in XP-8121 as we prepare to initiate the Cornerstone study by year-end. SG&A expenses were $64.1 million, an increase of $17.6 million versus the prior year. This increase is primarily due to higher personnel-related expenses for the commercial enterprise. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $30.8 million, an improvement of $13.3 million or 77% versus the prior year. It is also worth noting that in the third quarter, we delivered net income of $11.3 million compared to $0.6 million in the same period last year.
Moving to our full year 2026 outlook, starting with revenue. With this quarter's record performance, we are raising our full year total revenue guidance to $395 million to $405 million, representing approximately 37% growth at the midpoint. Our gross margin guidance remains unchanged as we expect continued improvement versus prior year.
Moving to expenses. R&D expenses are now expected to increase approximately $15 million compared to 2025, which is lower than our prior expectation of a $25 million increase. This reduction is mainly due to the expected timing of when certain expenses related to the XP-8121 program will be incurred. SG&A is now expected to increase approximately $60 million compared to 2025, up from our prior expectation of $50 million. This reflects increases in personnel-related expenses as well as deliberate investments across areas of our portfolio where we see compelling near-term growth opportunities.
On adjusted EBITDA, through the first 3 quarters of 2026, we have nearly doubled year-over-year, growing from $34 million to $65 million, and we expect continued adjusted EBITDA growth through the remainder of the year. Beyond 2026, as John shared earlier, we are now on a new path to generating more than $1 billion in total revenue in 2030 compared to our previous outlook of $750 million. Our portfolio is delivering, and we are on a new growth trajectory that should extend into 2030 and beyond.
With that, I'll hand the call over to the operator for Q&A. Thank you.
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chase Knickerbocker with Craig-Hallum.
Roanna Ruiz with Leerink Partners, please go ahead.
질의응답
Roanna Clarissa Ruiz
So Recorlev had a strong quarter. And can you talk about the relative magnitude of different drivers behind that, talking about the new and repeat prescribers and the field force, et cetera? And could you help us also understand if this growth in the product could potentially be a good tailwind into 2027, maybe mitigate some of the payer dynamics that we typically see in the early part of the year?
John Shannon
Thanks, Roanna. Yes, it's basically kind of our January expansion really kicking into gear on top of some really outstanding market dynamics where more and more patients are being tested, screened for hypercortisolism, and we're in a perfect position to capture those patients with Recorlev. We are getting business from existing prescribers and new prescribers. It's coming across the board. So it's both depth and breadth of prescribers. And yes, we see this momentum going into '27 and beyond.
Roanna Clarissa Ruiz
Great. And as a quick follow-up, so I noticed you announced some new IP for 8121 and Keveyis in particular. Can you talk about the relative strength of these patents? And is this helping to build your conviction in the long term and part of your longer-term guidance raise?
John Shannon
Well, 8121 is building on -- we now have 3 patents on that product that go as far as composition of matter. So that's extremely strong. Keveyis is one that we've been fighting for, I think, 9 years to get that patent. We think it's a very important patent. We think it's a very strong patent. And it really gives us what we need to really focus on finding more patients and investing in this community in a way that we can do that for a long time. And so we are now in a perfect position to be able to do that. We've had 4 quarters of growth on Keveyis now, and we're adding investments there so that we continue to build on finding more PPP patients and getting them on brand.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of David Amsellem with Piper Sandler.
David Amsellem
I had a couple of Recorlev questions. I wanted to dive more into how you think you're going to be able to leverage the recent ADA and European updated guidance document? And do you think that could be a source of acceleration in volume and sales as we move through next year? So that's number one. And then can you just give us an update on how access is, how access dynamics are for Recorlev? And as the footprint of the product grows, do you expect any access dynamics to become more challenging or evolve in any way?
John Shannon
Yes. Let me start with the guidance. And guidance just adds to kind of what's been going on in the space where more and more clinicians are screening and diagnosing more patients with hypercortisolemia where drugs and should be working and are not working. So this is just adding to that body of evidence and creating an environment where more and more clinicians are screening and detecting. So we see that as a good thing across the board, and it certainly will help future growth in terms of a market dynamic.
And then in terms of your second quarter -- your second question was...
Steven Pieper
Access.
John Shannon
Access. So David, you know this market pretty well. This is an area where everything is a prior auth, and we still see that. So it's really going down the path of medical necessity and an area where you continue to have to put resources behind and help the clinicians and patients get coverage for these drugs. We don't see that dynamic changing right away or maybe someday down the road. But right now, we don't see any of that happening.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Leland Gershell with OpCo.
Unknown Analyst
This is Tracy on for Leland. Congrats on the quarter. Just one from us. You now estimate the total revenue outlook of $1 billion by 2030. Can you comment on any changes in your underlying assumptions to up that number from $750 million?
Steven Pieper
Yes, Tracy, I'll take this one. This is Steve. Thanks for the question. So yes, I think it really starts with just a comment on the overall commercial portfolio. One, we expect all 3 brands to be contributing to growth, primarily led by Recorlev. And that's really on the back of kind of what we're seeing unfold in Q3 and into Q4. But importantly, we expect all 3 brands to be contributing to that growth, and that's really what's driving the uptick in our outlook, which I'd remind folks is really only 3 short years away. So...
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Folkes.
Brandon Folkes
Congrats on another very good quarter. Maybe just one for me. With the increased 2030 guidance, with that obviously comes additional cash flow. How do you think about that additional capital deployment, right? We've obviously got a good road map on 8121 now. But beyond that, how should we think about the incremental investments in the base business between now and 2030? Do you account for a much larger team? Or just anything we should think about there in terms of that additional cash generation that comes with that guidance?
John Shannon
Thanks, Brandon. And let's start with our existing products. We see opportunity to invest across the board in those to drive incremental growth. So our prioritization is to invest in our commercial assets, invest in our pipeline 8121. And then if we still have more to invest, then we'll be looking at business development type activities, focused on things that fit into our commercial footprint and our current capabilities, leveraging what we've built to date and especially things that could generate incremental revenue to our revenue growth in the -- between now and 2030, for example. So that's kind of the priorities, and we'll continue to focus on that as we generate even more cash.
Operator
Your last question comes from the line of Chase Knickerbocker with Craig-Hallum.
Chase Knickerbocker
Can you guys hear me all right now?
John Shannon
Yes.
Steven Pieper
Yes.
Chase Knickerbocker
Awesome. Okay. Sorry about that. So I just wanted to double-click on Keveyis actually, best quarter since 2024. Just want to get a sense for the drivers, your increased focus, some additional resources, how much impact is that actually having in the quarter? And then secondly, on that front, I just wanted to get a sense for what you think your market share is by volume in that market right now, just as we think about the impact of some of your litigation.
John Shannon
Chase, the first question is a little easier for us. The new resources that we put in just left training a few weeks ago. So a lot of those are going to really go into the fourth quarter and then into next year, and it will take some time to ramp up. So we are -- we anticipated and we've been watching the steady growth of Keveyis. And so we've got ahead of that and they started making the investments just based on the durability of the brand. And then in terms of market share in that, this is a highly -- really super small ultra-rare disease area. There's really no way to measure market share. We're the only one generating and finding new patients in the marketplace. And so from that perspective, it's hard to tell what other brands or products that these patients are on. So -- but for -- in terms of the patients on Keveyis, there's really no other competition in terms of getting patients started and treated.
Chase Knickerbocker
Got it. Maybe just another follow-up on the ADA guidelines. Is there a way that you kind of think about what percentage of the endo community that's not routinely testing right now? Or how do you guys kind of model the impact as we look into out years?
John Shannon
Chase, that's a really good question. And I think it really extends beyond the endo community, really into the primary care community, the areas where these clinicians are treating a lot of patients in these resistant stubborn conditions, whether it's cardiometabolic or diabetes or obesity. So I think that's where it really helps having the guidance going forward to add to the body of evidence that when these things aren't working, you should look for something else.
Chase Knickerbocker
Since I'm last, I'm going to sneak one more in, John, sorry. Just on kind of whether or not you need to generate any evidence specifically for Recorlev in these treatment-resistant diabetics to fully benefit from the guidelines? Just how you're thinking about that?
John Shannon
Yes. I would -- yes, of course, and we've said we're investing in our commercial footprint, but we're also investing in evidence generation. And you're going to start seeing that come out over the next several years. And like I said, we're now investing in both areas so that we can add to and someday become a leader in this space as this market matures over time.
Operator
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back over to John Shannon for closing remarks.
John Shannon
Thanks, everyone, and thanks for your questions. As you heard, this third quarter put us on a new growth curve, and the momentum behind it is broad and compounding. Today, we raised our 2026 full year revenue guidance to $395 million to $405 million and our 2030 total revenue outlook to more than $1 billion. We also now see Recorlev on a path to $1 billion in annual net revenue 3 to 4 years sooner than we previously projected. These are not aspirational numbers. They are the logical extension of the momentum this business is generating right now, and we're just getting started. Thank you for joining us today, and thank you for your continued support and interest in Xeris.
Operator
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
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