비코(VECO) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 2027년 성장률 40% 안팎 전망

핵심 요약

• 비코는 가이던스에 부합하는 2억 900만 달러의 2026년 3분기 매출을 발표했다. Non-GAAP 영업이익은 2,500만 달러, 희석 EPS는 0.36달러를 기록했다.
• 반도체 부문 매출은 첨단 로직 및 메모리 고객사용 레이저 어닐링 시스템과 첨단 패키징용 습식 공정 장비의 호조에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 4% 증가한 1억 3,500만 달러를 기록했다.
• 화합물 반도체 부문 매출은 실리콘 포토닉스용 MOCVD 및 이온빔 증착 시스템에 힘입어 전 분기 대비 96% 증가한 4,000만 달러에 달했다.
• 경영진은 4분기 매출 가이던스를 2억 3,000만~2억 6,000만 달러로 제시했으며, 2026년 연간 매출 가이던스를 7억 9,000만~8억 2,000만 달러, Non-GAAP 희석 EPS를 1.32~1.52달러로 수정 제시했다.
• 비코는 잠재적인 공급 제약을 고려하더라도 컨퍼런스 콜에서 논의된 20%~40% 범위의 상단 부근에서 2027년 매출 성장이 이뤄질 것으로 예상하고 있다. 경영진은 또한 2027년 연간 매출이 10억 달러를 넘어설 가능성도 보고 있다.
• 회사는 자체 생산시설 확장과 동남아시아 및 미국의 위탁 제조사를 통해 첨단 패키징과 실리콘 포토닉스 수요를 지원함으로써 2027년에 생산 능력을 두 배 이상으로 늘릴 계획이다.

핵심 재무 데이터

분기 매출 비중은 중국을 제외한 아시아 태평양이 45%, 미국이 31%, 중국이 12%, EMEA 및 기타 지역이 12%를 차지했다.

사업 및 운영 실적

첨단 패키징

비코는 주요 파운드리, 메모리 및 OSAT 고객사로부터의 수주로 수주잔고가 강화되었으며 2027년과 2028년에 대한 가시성이 높아졌다고 밝혔다. 경영진은 습식 공정 및 노광 사업이 현재의 높은 수준에서 두 배로 늘어나는 추세를 보임에 따라 2027년 첨단 패키징 매출이 크게 성장할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

회사는 성능 검증을 위해 주요 파운드리에 차세대 습식 공정 패널 장비를 출하했다. 수요를 뒷받침하기 위해 비코는 동남아시아와 미국에 위탁 제조 역량을 확충하고 있으며, 동남아시아에서의 첫 출하는 2027년 1분기로 예상된다.

어닐링 및 메모리

비코의 레이저 스파이크 어닐링 플랫폼은 3대 1차 로직 고객사 모두에서 양산 표준 장비 지위를 유지하고 있다. 차세대 나노초 어닐링 시스템의 경우, 한 고객사는 평가를 완료하고 수주를 확정했으며, 두 번째 고객사는 평가를 진행 중이고, 세 번째 고객사에는 시스템이 출하되었다.

메모리 분야에서 비코의 LSA 장비는 1차 고대역폭메모리(HBM) 고객사의 양산 표준 장비로 자리잡고 있다. 두 번째 1차 D램 고객사는 해당 플랫폼을 평가 중이며 2027년과 2028년에 후속 수주가 이어질 가능성이 있다. 회사는 또한 2026년 말까지 낸드용 첫 LSA 시스템을 출하할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

주요 D램 고객사에서 비트라인 금속 배선 공정 등의 용도로 IBD300 시스템 2대에 대한 평가가 진행 중이다. 경영진은 고객사들이 파일럿 라인과 HBM 프로그램을 지원하기 위해 추가 장비를 확보하려 하고 있으며, 2027년에 출하될 가능성이 있다고 밝혔다.

실리콘 포토닉스 및 화합물 반도체

실리콘 포토닉스는 핵심 성장 동력으로 유지되었다. 비코는 포토닉스 고객사로부터 루미나(Lumina) 및 루미나+ 수주를 다수 확보했으며, 인듐인 레이저 에피택시, 습식 공정 및 레이저 단면 코팅 분야 전반으로 사업을 확장하고 있다.

경영진은 이러한 실리콘 포토닉스 사업 기회가 향후 수년간 최소 20억 달러에 이를 것으로 추산하고 있다. 다만 회사는 신형 루미나 제품군의 생산 규모를 확대하는 데 시간이 걸릴 것이라며, 이에 따라 2027년 성장이 일부 제한되고 본격적인 시장 점유율 확대 시점은 2027년 말, 2028년 및 그 이후로 이동할 것이라고 설명했다.

실리콘 기반 GaN의 경우, 비코는 고객사의 파일럿 라인을 지원하기 위해 2027년 출하 예정인 대량 양산용 주문을 확보했다. 경영진은 고객 수요에 따라 2027년 하반기에 가동이 시작되고 2028년에 양산이 본격화될 수 있을 것으로 예상하고 있다.

데이터 스토리지

3분기 데이터 스토리지 매출은 2,000만 달러에 달했다. 비코는 열보조 자기기록(HAMR) 도입과 클라우드 컴퓨팅 및 AI 데이터센터 수요에 힘입어 해당 사업 매출이 2026년에 전년 대비 약 두 배로 늘어나고 2027년에는 약 20% 성장할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 수주 가시성은 2028년까지 이어지고 있다.

경영진은 이 사업이 공급 제약을 받고 있지는 않지만, 현재 고객 수요 신호상 이전 고점 수준으로 회복될 조짐은 보이지 않는다고 밝혔다.

경영진 가이던스

4분기 전망은 출하량 증가와 보다 우호적인 제품 믹스를 전제로 한다. 비코는 2026년 연간 반도체 매출이 10%대 초중반 성장할 것으로 예상하는 한편, 화합물 반도체 및 데이터 스토리지 매출은 각각 2025년 대비 약 두 배로 증가할 것으로 내다보고 있다.

2027년의 경우 경영진은 공급 제약의 예상 영향을 포함하더라도 전사 성장률이 40%에 가까울 것으로 예상하고 있다. 반도체 매출 역시 첨단 패키징 주도로 약 40% 성장할 것으로 예상되며, 반도체와 화합물 반도체 매출 합계는 전사 평균보다 빠르게 증가할 것으로 전망된다.

위험 요인 및 주목할 부분

• 비코는 부품 공급사의 리드 타임 장기화와 특정 부품 부족을 겪고 있다. 이에 따라 조기 발주, 대체 공급사 검증, 공급 물량 확보를 위한 선급금 지급 등을 진행하고 있다.
• 3분기 총마진은 공급망 비용 증가, 제품 믹스, 미국 정부의 수출 심사를 받고 있는 LFA 시스템의 매출 인식 지연으로 인해 압박을 받았다.
• 회사는 중국 내 레이저 어닐링 사업이 2027년에 다시 감소하여 사업 비중에서 중국이 차지하는 몫이 더 작아질 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 루미나 MOCVD 플랫폼의 대량 생산은 신제품의 양산 확대에 필요한 시간으로 인해 여전히 제약을 받고 있다.
• 액셀리스와의 합병은 중국 규제 당국의 승인을 포함한 관례적인 종결 조건의 적용을 받는다. 경영진은 2027년 1분기 말까지 거래가 종결될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

• 2027년 성장 및 공급 제약: 경영진은 40%에 가까운 성장률 전망치에 부품 병목 현상과 실행 위험 가능성이 이미 반영되어 있다고 밝혔다. 비코는 2027년 연간 필요량에 맞춰 발주를 완료했으며 위탁 제조 협력 관계를 확대하고 있다.
• 첨단 패키징 생산 능력: 회사는 2027년에 첨단 패키징 매출이 두 배 수준으로 증가할 것으로 예상하고 있다. 추가 위탁 제조사 확보는 비코의 기존 공장이 지닌 공간적 제약을 완화하기 위한 목적이다.
• GaN-on-silicon 시점: 고객사의 파일럿 라인용 시스템은 2027년에 출하될 예정이다. 경영진은 고객사의 최종 수요에 따라 2027년 하반기 가동 시작과 2028년 양산 확대 가능성을 언급했다.
• IBD300 도입: 고객사 피드백에서는 박막 품질과 낮은 저항 특성이 강조되었다. 비코는 시스템 안정성을 입증한 최근의 진전이 2027년 추가 파일럿 라인 및 HBM 장비 관련 논의를 뒷받침하고 있다고 밝혔다.
• EUV 펠리클: 비코는 기존 파운드리 고객사를 넘어 주로 로직 분야에서 다른 주요 고객사에 납품하는 펠리클 공급사들과도 협력을 확대하고 있다.

실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to the Veeco Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Alex Delacroix, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Alex Delacroix

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me on the call today are Bill Miller, Veeco's Chief Executive Officer; and John Kiernan, our Chief Financial Officer. The earnings release and slide presentation to accompany today's webcast is available on the Veeco website. To the extent that this call discusses expectations for future revenues, future earnings, the timing and expected benefits of the proposed transaction with Axcelis, market conditions or otherwise make statements about the future. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the statements made.

These risks are discussed in detail in our Form 10-K, annual report and other SEC filings. Veeco does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, including those made on this call to reflect future events or circumstances after the date of such statements. Management will address certain non-GAAP financial results. We encourage you to refer to our reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results, which you can find in our press release and at the end of the earnings presentation. Please note that we will not be addressing questions related to our pending merger with Axcelis. We urge you to read the joint proxy statement relating to the transaction with Axcelis. With that, I would now like to hand the call over to our CEO, Bill Miller.

William Miller

Thank you, Alex, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Across the semiconductor industry, AI infrastructure investment is driving a broad wave of technology transitions, including more advanced logic and memory architectures, greater packaging complexity and increasing requirements for high-speed optical connectivity. These trends are creating significant tailwinds across our differentiated portfolio of ion beam deposition, annealing, advanced packaging and epitaxy technologies. With strong customer engagement and increasing orders, we believe these opportunities position us for sustainable long-term growth and provide a clear path to exceed $1 billion in revenue for the full year 2027.

Four key takeaways from the third quarter are: first, we delivered solid financial results in the third quarter. Revenue was $209 million within our guidance range. Non-GAAP operating income was $25 million, and non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.36. Second, we continue to experience significant order wins in front-end semiconductor, advanced packaging and silicon photonics areas. Our recent wins continue to strengthen our backlog and reinforce our confidence in our revenue growth. Third, we continue to advance our market-leading ion beam deposition technology, which spans our major business areas of semiconductor, silicon photonics and data storage. We are pleased with the progress of our next-generation IBD300 program and see a path toward commercial adoption.

Fourth, we remain focused on executing against the increasing demand through investments in our supply chain with contract manufacturing partners, along with expanding our internal manufacturing capacity. We remain highly optimistic about the growth opportunities created by AI infrastructure and high-performance computing. With strong execution, increasing customer engagement and strategic investments underway to support industry demand, we believe Veeco is well positioned to capitalize on these secular trends.

Before diving in deeper, I'll briefly touch on the merger with Axcelis. The transaction continues to progress with shareholders' approvals secured and progress on customary closing conditions, including China regulatory review. We continue to work constructively with China to obtain clearance. We expect the transaction to close by the end of the first quarter of 2027. In parallel, our integration teams continue to plan for a seamless close and remain focused on realizing the potential fundamental long-term value creation we believe will be unlocked from this combination.

Moving to the next slide. I'll highlight our critical role in semiconductor manufacturing and our served available market opportunity through 2030. AI-driven investment and increasing device complexity are accelerating technology transitions across advanced packaging, leading logic and memory customers. These trends align well with our differentiated portfolio and are creating multiple opportunities to expand our served available market and drive long-term growth.

I'll begin with advanced packaging, which continues to be a major growth area for our wet processing and lithography tools. Throughout the year, we have received significant orders from leading foundry, memory and OSAT customers, strengthening our backlog and increasing our visibility for 2027 and into 2028. Beyond the strong order momentum, our pipeline continues to expand as customers evaluate our technology for next-generation advanced packaging applications. For example, we are engaged with a Tier 1 foundry on the qualification of a next-generation wet processing panel tool. Advanced packaging is becoming an increasingly meaningful contributor to our growth as we gain share in a growing market that we project will approach $1 billion by 2030.

To meet anticipated customer requirements, we intend to more than double our manufacturing capacity in 2027 through both in-house expansion and strategic outsourcing partnerships in Southeast Asia and the United States, providing additional scale and flexibility as we prepare for higher customer volumes. In the front-end manufacturing process, we serve advanced logic and foundry as well as memory customers. In logic and foundry, our annealing solutions continue to be a market leader. Our laser spike annealing product remains production tool of record at all 3 Tier 1 logic customers, driving ongoing business. We continue to advance our next-generation nanosecond annealing system, addressing critical low thermal budget applications. We have successfully engaged all 3 Tier 1 logic customers and made significant progress advancing NSA over the past several months.

One customer has completed its evaluation and placed a revenue order. A second continues to make progress towards completing its evaluation and we recently shipped an evaluation system to the third customer. Customers are seeing great results and are accelerating their adoption of our NSA system. We see potential for additional orders in the coming months, supporting their pilot lines and high-volume manufacturing needs.

Turning to memory. We are in the early stages of building this business as customers begin adopting laser annealing technologies. We see significant runway for growth as adoption expands, supported by AI-driven demand for DRAM and NAND technologies. We continue to make progress with leading memory customers, including our LSA tool serving as the production tool of record at a Tier 1 high-bandwidth memory customer that accelerated their investment in 2026. We are advancing an LSA evaluation system at a second Tier 1 DRAM customer with potential follow-on orders in 2027 and 2028. And our engagement with a third DRAM customer could lead to an evaluation agreement in 2027. Our opportunity is also expanding into NAND. Several customers are exploring applications for our LSA and NSA platforms, and we expect to ship our first LSA system for a NAND application to a leading customer by year-end. As 3D NAND manufacturers increase layer counts and device complexity, controlling thermal exposure becomes increasingly critical.

Together, these opportunities support our confidence in an annealing SAM of approximately $1.3 billion by 2030. Beyond annealing, we see another meaningful opportunity to expand our presence in memory through our IBD300 platform. Two systems are currently under evaluation at leading DRAM customers for advanced memory applications, including bitline metallization where low-resistance films are increasingly critical. These evaluations are progressing with strong customer engagement and program expansion in 2027.

Lastly, we continue to be a market leader in ion beam deposition for EUV mask blanks, working closely with major customers to enable their technology road maps. Demand is supported by AI-driven scaling, increasing EUV layer counts at leading-edge logic nodes and the expanding adoption of EUV and high-bandwidth memory applications. Our technology is a critical enabler of the multilayer mirrors used in EUV mask blanks, and we are deeply engaged with customers and industry leaders as they advance their road maps toward high-NA lithography and larger format masks. This close collaboration positions us at the forefront of enabling the industry's next generation of EUV technology. We are also expanding our EUV-related opportunity into pellicle applications where we continue to win production business at a Tier 1 foundry and engage with new customers. Taken together, we see our ion beam deposition SAM in the front-end semiconductor market to be approximately $500 million by 2030.

On the next slide, I'll discuss our compound semiconductor market and projected SAM through 2030. AI infrastructure is driving greater demand for high-speed optical connectivity and power-efficient semiconductor devices, creating attractive growth opportunities across our portfolio. In silicon photonics, we project a $700 million SAM by 2030, primarily driven by indium phosphide lasers for high-speed optical connectivity. We are gaining momentum across the laser manufacturing process with multiple Lumina and Lumina+ orders year-to-date, a market leader position in wet processing and our differentiated Spectra IBD technology for laser facet coatings. I'll discuss this opportunity in greater detail on the next slide.

In other photonics, we project a $550 million SAM by 2030, including applications in space-based solar, micro-LED displays and other emerging photonics technologies. And in GaN power, we project a $250 million SAM by 2030, supported by AI data center power requirements, electrification and other high-power density applications. Our Propel 300-millimeter GaN on silicon platform continues to progress with a leading power semiconductor customer as we work toward completing technical qualifications for future capacity expansion. Collectively, these opportunities position Veeco to benefit from the growing requirements for advanced connectivity and power efficiency as AI infrastructure continues to scale.

Next, I'll dive deeper into our role in silicon photonics. Within the compound semiconductor market, silicon photonics remains one of our most compelling AI-driven growth areas. As AI clusters scale, higher bandwidth requirements are accelerating the shift from copper to optical connectivity. This transition is driving adoption of advanced indium phosphide lasers across higher-speed pluggable transceivers and longer term, near package and co-packaged optics. Veeco is uniquely positioned across 3 critical steps in the indium phosphide laser manufacturing process, epitaxy, wet processing and laser plastic coatings. Given our customer engagements, we continue to believe this represents at least a $2 billion opportunity over the next several years.

In MOCVD, momentum continues to build for our Lumina and Lumina+ platforms. We have received multiple orders year-to-date from leading photonics customers. We are installing systems at existing customers, pursuing additional expansion opportunities and engaging with prospective customers across epitaxy applications. We continue to win business supported by competitive advantages of our platform, including differentiated productivity, reduced cleaning requirements and larger batch processing. In wet processing, our wafer etch and wafer storm platforms provide critical etching, cleaning and surface preparation solutions for laser manufacturing. And in ion beam deposition, our Spectra tool addresses the critical laser facet coating step. As lasers move to higher power, the requirements for tighter film quality and greater reliability become increasingly stringent, playing directly to the strengths of our differentiated IBD technology.

Together, these capabilities give us broad exposure to the continued scaling of optical connectivity. We're investing to more than double capacity in 2027 to support our customers' unprecedented demand and capture this multiyear growth opportunity. With that, I'll turn the call over to John to review our financial results.

John Kiernan

Thank you, Bill. Revenue came in at $209 million within our guidance range. For the third quarter, our semiconductor revenue was $135 million, an increase of 4% from the prior quarter and comprising 65% of revenue. It was largely driven by laser annealing systems to leading edge foundry logic and memory customers, along with wet processing systems for advanced packaging. For the full year 2026, we expect semiconductor revenue to grow by low to mid-teens compared to the prior full year. This performance is driven primarily by additional sales to leading memory, foundry logic and EUV customers serving AI and high-performance computing applications. In 2027, building on this momentum, we expect revenue growth to meaningfully accelerate led by advanced packaging. Compound semiconductor revenue for the third quarter totaled $40 million, a 96% increase from the prior quarter, totaling 19% of revenue.

For the full year 2026, we expect compound semiconductor revenue to approximately double versus full year 2025. Growth was predominantly driven by our MOCVD and IBD systems for silicon photonics. Looking ahead in 2027, we expect revenue growth to accelerate driven by the significant backlog for these tools.

Turning to data storage. Revenue for the third quarter was $20 million, representing 10% of revenue. We expect revenue to approximately double in data storage year-over-year in 2026. Demand continues to increase driven by cloud computing and AI data centers. We have order visibility for 2027 and extending into 2028. We are aligned closely with our customer road maps as they adopt HAMR, increasing the need for our Ion Beam technology. Lastly, in Scientific and Other, the third quarter revenue was $14 million, representing 6% of revenue.

Turning to the quarterly revenue by region. Revenue from Asia Pacific region, excluding China, was 45%, an increase from the previous quarter. Revenue from the U.S. accounted for 31% of revenue, an increase from the previous quarter, primarily from advanced semiconductor customers. Our China portion was 12% of revenue, a decrease from the previous quarter. EMEA and the rest of the world accounted for 12% of revenue as well. Turning to the third quarter non-GAAP operating results. Gross margin came in at 39%, below expectations due to higher supply chain costs, product mix and the timing of revenue recognition on an LFA system under U.S. government export review. Operating expenses totaled approximately $57 million and income tax expense was $3 million, resulting in an effective tax rate of approximately 12%. Net income was $24 million and diluted EPS was $0.36 on 66 million shares.

Turning to the next slide to review the balance sheet and cash flow highlights. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of $483 million, an increase of $53 million from the prior quarter. From a working capital perspective, our accounts receivable increased by $6 million to $154 million. Inventory increased by $16 million to $308 million and accounts payable increased by $11 million to $68 million. Importantly, customer deposits increased by $58 million to $169 million, reflecting strong customer commitment and demand. Cash flow from operations totaled $58 million and CapEx totaled $4 million during the quarter.

Lastly, I'll review our fourth quarter and updated full year 2026 non-GAAP outlook. Demand across our key markets remains strong, and we continue to make deliberate investments to support our future growth. This includes adding capacity and expanding our supply chain to ensure we are well positioned to meet customer needs as these opportunities scale. While there are certain industry-wide component constraints, we're actively working with our suppliers to address them. Fourth quarter revenue is expected to be between $230 million and $260 million. Gross margin is expected to be between 43% and 44%, reflecting improved volume and more favorable product mix. We expect OpEx between $64 million and $66 million, net income between $34 million and $47 million and diluted EPS between $0.50 and $0.70 on 66 million shares.

We are updating our full year revenue guidance to be between $790 million and $820 million and expect our non-GAAP diluted earnings per share between $1.32 to $1.52 based on 66 million shares. Our third quarter performance and updated full year outlook demonstrate our continued focus on delivering strong financial results while investing deliberately for the future. With a solid foundation, we remain well positioned to fund our capacity expansion, support our customers and execute on the opportunities ahead. With that, we'll now open the call for questions.

Operator

As a reminder, everybody, given the pending merger with Axcelis, Veeco management will not be addressing questions related to the transaction. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from Charles Shi from Needham.

질의응답

Yu Shi

John, I think I heard you talk a little bit about the supply chain component constraints before you gave the outlook. But wondering if you can provide a little bit of additional color on how the supply chain situation looks like for you guys right now. And I noticed that you gave some early view into '27 as well, but we all know you have very strong backlog, semi, compound semi accelerating, but there's still a little bit of range of possibility there. Demand -- unconstrained demand is one question. And assuming you're still going to have some component constraint into next year, what is the more realistic expectation for next year? Hopefully, you can help us from that angle, demand versus supply constraint.

John Kiernan

Sure. I'll handle part of that question. I'll turn part of the question over to Bill as well to talk about demand for next year. So I would say, Charles, similar to what peer company has been reporting, we have seen supply chain challenges increasing. We've experienced longer lead times and certain component shortages. Our supply chain organization is working closely with suppliers. We're placing orders earlier, qualifying alternative suppliers and making use of advanced payments to secure supply. And as you mentioned, we've been working to align supply with higher demand outlook and providing our suppliers with greater forward visibility, placing orders against our '27 requirements for the full year 2027 at this point and expanding our relationships with contract manufacturers there as well.

So while there are constraints, and execution risk, we believe we've identified the key bottlenecks and have actions in place to address them and believe our ability to ramp supply chains to support the demand as we move through 2027.

William Miller

And the second half of your question, Charles, this is Bill, was are those demand constraints limiting your outlook for '27. I would say, as you just said, that we continue to see incredible demand just driven by AI infrastructure, et cetera. And I would say, if I look at where people are kind of targeting WFE in '27 in kind of the range of 20% to 40% growth year-over-year in '27. I would say, and this includes view of the supply constraints, which is your question, we see -- across the whole corporation, all key segments, we see our '27 growth at the higher range of those WFE estimates kind of closer to that 40% range.

Yu Shi

Maybe, Bill, a quick follow-up, right? So let's say, you grow close to that 40%, would that be a potential -- I mean, is that a possible range still with some of the supply constraints that you're probably going to have in mind? Or that's really just an unconstrained demand number right now.

William Miller

No, no. That's a view that takes into account potential supply constraints and bottlenecks and is our kind of current estimate, factoring all that in.

Yu Shi

Well, that's very good color. So maybe a follow-up question on maybe 2 product level -- small product level questions. One, people have been expecting this GaN silicon repeat orders from your top customers. Wondering -- because you do have a long lead time, right, wondering what's the latest on when you think the volume ramp is going to happen, when the repeat order is going to come? That's one. The other, there is this hard disk drive demand and I did hear you talk about visibility extending now already into '28. Wondering if you can provide a little bit more help that rather than just year-on-year, but on the quarterly run rate, where we are heading -- where are we heading to?

I think your bottom level was kind of like $10 million per quarter, right? That's purely service or data storage, but you are now run rating just -- maybe you're going to the $25 million per quarter, but wondering if we can ever get back to the prior peak level, which I believe exceeded probably $50 million per quarter. I want to get some thoughts on how you think about the ramp of data storage as well. That's the 2 questions rolled into one.

William Miller

I'll try to keep me honest here, Charles. On GaN on silicon, we do have an eval at a large IDM for 300-millimeter GaN on silicon. Our understanding from close engagement with the customer is the machine is operating well. It's producing high-quality epitaxy. It's being used to provide parts to their customers for qualification. We have -- we did announce, I believe, that we are in receipt of a kind of an HVM order for shipment in 2027 to support our customers' pilot line. So I think it probably will be starting in the back half of '27. And depending on how their customer demand evolves, that would probably ramp in '28. That's Bill's guess of the customer's view.

So if there's no questions on GaN Power, I'll move to data storage. I would say you're right that the kind of $10 million run rate is kind of a service only, and we have effectively doubled the business in 2026, up to kind of $80 million rate. And we do have visibility into '27 and into '28. I think the challenge that makes answering your question on a quarterly basis challenging is that the ASPs of these tools are kind of in the $5 million, $8 million, $10 million each. So a tool moving around between one quarter and another doesn't really justify it. But I would say, if I look at '27 in totality, I would say it's probably going to grow in about the 20% range, probably half the rate of the rest of the company. But we do have very good visibility of that business.

Yu Shi

All right. So it sounds like the HDD side of the business, I mean, compare with, let's say, the 2021 peak, previous cycle peak is still pretty constrained at this point?

John Kiernan

I don't know that it's constrained, Charles. This is John, constrained or this is what the customer telling us demand is, right? They're saying capital intensity is like 4% to 6% of their revenues. We wouldn't be capacity constrained going into this level of business. So I don't think that the demand is there right now for going back to sort of peak levels our customers are giving us. I think, as you know, we've been working with these customers for a long period of time on a build-to-order model. They're giving us their requirements for 2027 and highlighting sort of the beginning of 2028 at this point. And none of those demand signals from the customers would indicate we'd be going back to peak level for those customers.

Now that could change if their demand signals change, but we're not receiving those types of demand signals from the customer. And we are not supply constrained in this area given the full lead time that we have visibility that we have.

Operator

And your next question comes from David Duley from Steelhead.

David Duley

I guess my first question is on your MOCVD business for indium phosphide laser production. I think you're kind of the low market share guy there. And could you talk about -- you seem to have indicated some progress on the conference call about winning customers, broadening out your customer base, shipping more tools to current customers. Could you just talk about what your goals are for market share of that business and kind of where you're at now? And what sort of growth would we expect for that part of the -- for MOCVD in 2027?

William Miller

David, I would say, as I think you know, we've developed the Lumina and the Lumina+ product line and recently launched it. And what we're seeing in the marketplace, whether that's in indium phosphide lasers or space-based solar applications or micro LEDs, the product is being broadly accepted, and it seems that it's a pretty capable product in the marketplace. And so we are winning business in this year and growing that business on a number of fronts, but specifically to your question, indium phosphide as well. And so we are working very closely with a few of the leaders. We're doing demos with others, and we're knocking on the doors of others to try to get in. And so I would say some of the challenges that we face is because this is a new product, ramping it to high volume will take a little bit of -- higher volume will take a little bit of time. So this is an area where we are constrained a bit in terms of our growth in '27. But I would expect to start gaining a bit more share in kind of the late '27, '28 and beyond time frames.

David Duley

And then you mentioned your LSA revenue in 2027, I think, is going to be a significant grower. Could you kind of highlight both foundry/logic and for memory, how much you think you can grow next year in relationship to the growth rate you've given for the segment, I guess, the past?

William Miller

Yes. In LSA, in '26, our advanced logic business has really ticked up with the Tier 1s. And the other thing is we've won one memory customer for high-bandwidth memory, and they've grown substantially. So our memory segment has grown substantially in 2026. The headwind we have in '26 is that our China business, as we've been forecasting continues to decline. So our mix of kind of front-end or leading-edge trailing edge has kind of flipped back to more traditional kind of 2/3, 1/3 during 2026 for LSA. When I look at this year, I would -- I think that -- I'm sorry, when I look at '27, I would say, if I'm looking specifically at LSA, I would say that business will continue to grow in the Advanced segment as it has in '26. And we are expecting decline in '27 in China. So we expect China to become less relevant.

And when I look at the semi segment, including advanced packaging and all the other elements, I would say our semi segment will grow at about 40%, similar to what I said earlier, company-wide average. That being said, David, I think it's important for everyone to understand that silicon photonics, where we are seeing significant growth sits in our compound semi segment, not in our semi segment. So if you were to add the compound semi with the semi, it would be growing faster than the company average.

David Duley

And then I signed on just like a couple of minutes late and you're talking about doubling your capacity for advanced packaging, I believe, and talked about a panel level win. I just was wondering kind of when you just take a step back, what you kind of think -- I imagine your co-op business grew quite substantially here in 2026 with all the wafer starts that are being added, but there's a lot of wafer starts being added next year, too. So maybe just talk parse what you kind of think the co-op advanced packaging kind of revenue outlook is? And is doubling capacity enough to meet demand in 2027?

William Miller

Yes. I would say, David, as you know, in '25, we doubled the business on the back of advanced packaging, really on in our wet processing business. And in '26, and that was for a lot of co-op capacity that you're now seeing wafer starts in '26. So that capacity was put in '25 for '26. That business continues at an elevated level. And I would say it's probably flattish to maybe up a little bit in '26. But when I look at advanced packaging in '27, we're definitely seeing that business grow substantially based on our backlog, not only in wet processing, but also in lithography for -- heading towards doubling from these kind of elevated levels that we're operating at now.

So to that end, I'm not sure how much you caught on the call, but we are adding 2 contract manufacturers. We pretty much run out of space in our current factory. And we're adding a contract manufacturer in Southeast Asia. There, first shipments will be in -- coming online in Q1 and a domestic contract manufacturer that's been building subassemblies is now going to start building whole systems for us. But the majority, I would think, is heading towards Southeast Asia.

David Duley

And then just inside that question was a commentary about panel. Panel adoption.

William Miller

Yes. So we have shipped a panel tool to a leading foundry. And just given the size of these packages and die that -- a lot more die fit on a square than fit on a circle effectively. And so with not a large change in footprint, but geometry, our customer can add substantially more output of devices. So that's been progressing. It's doing well. And we're -- I think we're in a very strong position there for -- in wet processing for that panel tool.

Operator

And your last question comes from Gus Richard from Northland.

Auguste Richard

Just real quick on the IDD opportunity at the DRAM guys. Could you talk a little bit about what you need to finish to get one of these customers over the line to order tools?

William Miller

Yes. Sure, Gus. Yes, as you know, we have 2 evals at leading DRAM customers. I would say we've been making a lot of progress. The team has been making a lot of progress this last quarter or so. And our feedback from the customer has always been, wow, these are very high-quality films. The resistance is really spectacular. We really love the film quality. But what we've been able to do is to really make some substantial progress in demonstrating to our customers the robustness of the system, which is really kind of what's been holding us back. And so our expectation is we're going to expand our program in 2027. And what I mean by that is customers are pulling for additional tools now to support their pilot line, HBM that we expect to ship in 2027. So we're kind of in early stages of discussion of that, and we're working through what that looks like and how we execute that.

Auguste Richard

And then you mentioned you've got an opportunity in pellicles beyond your initial customers. Just wondering if you could talk about that logic? Is it memory? Is it multiple customers? Is the existing customer going to order more? Sort of what's the state of that piece of the IBD business?

William Miller

Yes. So what we've said is we have one foundry customer who are in the pellicle business for their own business. And then what we're seeing is the ecosystem is such that some -- a lot of customers don't want to make pellicles and so they're working with their suppliers. And so now we're not only working with this foundry customer. But other -- another level down in the supply chain to help them as well, to work with them as well to support the other major customers. And I would say, largely, those are more logic customers today.

Auguste Richard

And just to clarify, that would be like a mask blank vendor or someone that makes pellicle for IBD?

William Miller

Exactly. Exactly. The existing supply chain, yes.

Operator

At this time, we have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Mr. Bill Miller for closing remarks.

William Miller

Thank you. Veeco delivered another solid quarter, and we continue to build momentum across our key growth areas. AI investment and increasing chip complexity are driving strong customer engagement, order momentum and greater visibility into 2027 and beyond. We're investing to support this growth while advancing our differentiated technologies, including IBD300 to capitalize on our long-term growth opportunities.

We also continue to progress toward completing our merger with Axcelis and remain confident in the compelling value creation potential of the combination. We're poised to benefit from the significant tailwinds within the industry and remain focused on execution. Thanks to our shareholders for your continued support and to the entire Veeco team for your hard work and dedication. Have a great evening.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you very much for your participation, and you may now disconnect. Have a great day, everyone.