아메리칸 스테이츠 워터(AWR) 2026년 3분기 실적 콘퍼런스콜: 조정 EPS 상승

핵심 요약

• 아메리칸 스테이츠 워터 컴퍼니(American States Water Company)는 2026년 3분기 주당순이익(EPS)이 1.06달러로 전년 동기 대비 변동이 없었다고 발표했다. 퇴직연금 플랜 관련 투자 손익을 제외한 조정 EPS는 1.01달러에서 1.06달러로 증가했다.
• 9개월 누적 보고 EPS는 2.63달러에서 2.92달러로 증가했다. 조정 EPS는 2.54달러에서 2.86달러로 12.6% 증가했으며, 3개 사업 부문 모두 전년 동기 대비 이익 성장을 기록했다.
• 3분기 매출은 규제 대상 수도 및 전기 요금 인상과 이전에 승인된 자본 프로젝트로부터 발생한 추가 매출에 힘입어 980만 달러 증가했다.
• 규제 공공사업 부문은 첫 9개월 동안 자체 자금 조달 자본 프로젝트에 1억 4,930만 달러를 투자했다. 경영진은 연간 투자 목표치인 1억 8,500만~2억 2,000만 달러를 유지했다.
• 골든 스테이트 워터(Golden State Water)는 2028~2030년 일반 요금 심사(general rate case)에서 약 10억 달러의 자본 지출을 요청했다. 2026년 승인된 평균 수도 요금기저는 16억 7,000만 달러에 달해 2021년 대비 연평균 11.3%의 복합 성장률을 기록했다.
• 경영진은 ASUS가 2026년에 주당 0.63~0.67달러, 2027년에 주당 0.67~0.71달러의 이익을 기여할 것으로 예상하고 있다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

골든 스테이트 워터의 3분기 조정 EPS는 전년 동기 대비 0.04달러 증가했다. 이러한 개선은 2026년 수도 요금 인상과 2025년 말 회수가 승인된 자본 프로젝트의 추가 매출을 반영한 것이다. 다만 영업비용, 순이자비용 및 유효법인세율 증가가 이러한 이익을 일부 상쇄했다. 모회사의 시장가 발행(at-the-market) 프로그램을 통한 신주 발행은 EPS를 0.02달러 감소시켰다.

또한 해당 수도 공공사업 부문의 연간 누적 실적은 고객 소비량이 약 1% 증가하고 용수 공급 믹스가 개선된 데 따른 수혜를 입었다. 이전에 가동이 중단되었던 여러 관정이 재가동되면서 외부 구매 용수에 대한 의존도가 감소했다.

골든 스테이트 워터의 승인된 평균 요금기저는 2021년 9억 8,040만 달러에서 2026년 16억 7,000만 달러로 증가해 5개년 연평균 복합 성장률(CAGR) 11.3%를 기록했다. 현재 계류 중인 2028~2030년 일반 요금 심사에는 약 10억 달러의 요청 자본 예산이 포함되어 있다. 심사 결정은 2027년 4분기로 예정되어 있다.

베어 밸리 일렉트릭(Bear Valley Electric)은 요금 인상이 영업비용, 이자비용 및 세율 상승을 상쇄하고 남아 3분기 EPS가 0.04달러에서 0.05달러로 증가했다고 발표했다. 2026년 승인된 평균 요금기저는 1억 6,600만 달러에 달해 2021년 6,920만 달러 대비 5개년 연평균 19.1%의 복합 성장률을 기록했다.

ASUS의 3분기 EPS는 매출 증가로 일부 상쇄되었으나 영업 및 건설 비용 증가로 인해 전년 동기 대비 0.02달러 감소한 0.17달러를 기록했다. 한편 ASUS는 첫 9개월 동안 3,100만 달러 규모의 신규 자본 설비 개선 공사를 수주했으며, 2029년까지 완공될 예정이다.

회사는 3분기에 분기 배당금을 8.2% 인상했다. 배당금은 72년 연속 매년 인상되었으며, 지난 5년간 분기 배당금은 연평균 복합 성장률(CAGR) 8.4%로 증가했다.

경영진 가이던스

• 경영진은 2026년 규제 공공사업 인프라 투자 목표치인 1억 8,500만~2억 2,000만 달러를 유지했다.
• ASUS는 2026년에 주당 0.63~0.67달러를 기여할 것으로 예상되며, 이는 전년 대비 3.3%~9.8% 성장을 나타낸다.
• 경영진은 2027년 ASUS의 주당 EPS 기여도를 0.67~0.71달러로 전망했다.
• 경영진은 골든 스테이트 워터가 2026년에 인가 수익률 이상을 달성할 것이라고 여전히 확신한다고 밝혔다.
• 베어 밸리 일렉트릭의 계류 중인 요금 심사는 2027년 1분기에 결정이 내려질 예정이다. 신규 요금은 2027년 1월 1일부터 효력을 발생하도록 되어 있으며, 결정이 지연되더라도 소급하여 매출을 인식할 수 있다.

리스크 및 주시 사항

골든 스테이트 워터의 이익은 2025년에 도입된 수정 매출 디커플링 메커니즘과 증분 용수 공급 비용 정산 계정(balancing account) 하에서 고객 소비량 및 용수 공급 믹스 변화에 계속 노출되어 있다.

경영진은 소비량 증가와 구매 용수 사용량 감소에 따른 연초 이후 누적 수혜가 지속되지 않고 반전될 수 있다고 경고했다. 날씨, 절수 노력, 기후 조건, 지하수 수질, 유역 또는 양수 시설 운영 변화 등이 향후 실적에 영향을 미칠 수 있다.

3분기 실적에는 퇴직연금 플랜 재원 조달을 위해 보유한 투자 자산의 변동성도 반영되었다. 해당 투자 수익률의 변화로 인해 전년 동기 대비 주당 0.05달러의 부정적인 영향이 발생했다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

경영진은 퇴직연금 플랜 투자 영향이 전력 부문이 아닌 수도 부문에 반영된다고 밝혔다. 이러한 변동성에도 불구하고 회사는 골든 스테이트 워터가 인가 수익률 이상을 달성할 것이라고 계속 확신하고 있다.

베어 밸리 일렉트릭의 요금 심사와 관련해 경영진은 현재 일정상 2027년 1분기에 제안 결정이 나올 예정이라고 밝혔다. 회사는 또한 신규 요금이 2027년 1월 1일부터 소급 적용될 예정이므로 승인이 지연되더라도 관련 매출이 반드시 사라지는 것은 아니라고 언급했다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the American States Water Company conference call discussing the company's third quarter 2026 results. The call is being recorded. If you would like to listen to the replay of this call, it will begin this afternoon at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time and run through November 12 on the company's website, www.aswater.com. The slides that the company will be referring to are also available on the website. [Operator Instructions] Presenting today from American States Water Company are Bob Sprowls, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Eva Tang, Senior Vice President of Finance and Chief Financial Officer.

As a reminder, certain matters discussed during this conference call may be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees or assurances of any outcomes, financial results, levels of activity, performance or achievements, and listeners are cautioned not to place undue reliance upon them. Forward-looking statements are subject to estimates and assumptions and known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors.

Listeners should review the description of the company's risks and uncertainties that could affect the forward-looking statements in our most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-Q on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Statements made on this conference call speak only as of the date of this call and except as required by law. The company does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement. In addition, this conference call will include a discussion of certain measures that are not prepared in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles or GAAP in the United States and constitute non-GAAP financial measures under SEC rules.

These non-GAAP financial measures are derived from consolidated financial information but are not presented in our financial statements that are prepared in accordance with GAAP. For more details, please refer to the press release. At this time, I will turn the call over to Bob Sprowls, President and Chief Executive Officer of American States Water Company.

Robert Sprowls

Thank you, Chloe. Welcome, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. I'll begin with a discussion of the quarter. Eva will discuss some financial details, and then I'll wrap it up with updates on regulatory activity, ASUS and dividends, and then we'll take your questions. Reported earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.06, consistent with reported earnings from last year. However, this year's third quarter included a $0.05 per share unfavorable period-over-period impact from changes in returns on investments held to fund one of the company's retirement plans, driven by volatile market conditions.

Removing the effects of the gains and losses on investments from both periods, adjusted earnings for the third quarter of 2026 remained at $1.06 per share as compared to adjusted earnings of $1.01 per share for the same period in 2025, an increase of $0.05 per share. All 3 of our operating business segments have performed well year-to-date and report year-over-year earnings increases. On the regulatory front, Golden State Water filed its general rate case in July with the California Public Utilities Commission, or CPUC, to set new rates for the years 2028 through 2030. The filing included a request for capital investments of approximately $1 billion over the rate cycle.

In July, Golden State Water and the Public Advocates Office at the CPUC, or Cal Advocates filed a joint settlement to approve the acquisition of an existing water system that serves almost 900 customer connections located in the city of Norwalk in Los Angeles County. We continue to seek opportunities to expand our regulated water operations. Our regulated utilities are on pace to invest $185 million to $220 million in infrastructure investments for the full year as we continue to invest in our water, wastewater and electric utility systems for the long-term benefit of our customers.

ASUS continues to secure funding from the U.S. government for new construction projects at the bases we serve, and was awarded $31 million in new capital upgrade construction projects during the 9 months ended September 30 of this year. These newly awarded projects are expected to be completed through 2029. With that, I'll turn the call over to Eva to discuss earnings and liquidity.

Eva Tang

Thank you, Bob. Hello, everyone. I'll begin on Slide 7. As Bob mentioned, our consolidated reported earnings were $1.06 per share and were flat compared to last year, but included in the quarterly consolidated and water segment earnings comparison was an unfavorable variance of $0.05 per share related to gains generated on investment in the third quarter of 2025 compared to a small loss generated in the current quarter. Excluding the impact of gains and losses on investments from both periods, adjusted consolidated earnings remained at $1.06 per share for the current quarter compared to adjusted earnings of $1.01 per share last year, an increase of $0.05 per share.

The increase in adjusted net earnings resulted largely from the implementation of new customer rate increases approved by the CPUC at our regulated utilities. Our water utility, Golden State Water reported earnings of $0.85 per share as compared to $0.86 per share for the third quarter of last year or $0.85 per share as adjusted for 2026 as compared to adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share for the same period in 2025, an increase of $0.04 per share when excluding the effect of gain and losses on investments as discussed. The $0.04 per share increase in adjusted earnings was due to an increase in water rates for 2026 including additional revenue associated with the completed advice letter capital project filed and recovered -- filed and approved for recovery in late 2025, partially offset by increase in operating expenses and interest expenses, net of interest income as well as a higher effective income tax rate.

Lastly, there was a decrease in earnings of $0.02 per share due to the dilutive effect from the share issuances under the parent company's at-the-market offering program. Our Electric segment's reported earnings were $0.05 per share for the quarter as compared to $0.04 per share for the same quarter last year. The $0.01 per share increase is from rate increases partially offset by higher operating and interest expenses and the higher effective income tax rate. Earnings from ASUS were $0.17 per share for the quarter compared to $0.19 per share for the same quarter last year, a decrease of $0.02 per share, primarily from an increase in overall operating and construction expenses partially offset by an increase in total revenue recognized.

There was also a decrease of $0.02 per share in losses from our parent company. This decrease is principally from a decrease in interest expense resulting from lower borrowing levels under its credit facility and lower interest rates. The decrease in borrowing needs was driven primarily by additional proceeds raised under the company's ATM offer program. Consolidated revenue for the third quarter increased by $9.8 million when compared to the same quarter of 2025. Revenues increased by $7.6 million in the Water segment and $1.6 million in the Electric segment, driven mostly by the new 2026 rate and additional revenue associated with advice letter projects approved in 2025. Revenue from ASUS increased $0.6 million, primarily due to higher management fees.

Turning to Slide 9. Overall operating expenses increased by $4.2 million. Looking at total operating expenses other than supply costs, expenses increased by $3.7 million compared to last year. The increase comes largely from higher depreciation and amortization expenses, higher ASUS construction expenses and higher other operation expenses. Interest expense net of interest income, also increased largely from a decrease in interest income due to the capitalization of debt costs associated with certain advice letter projects in 2025 with no similar items in 2026, as the projects were completed and new rates took effect in 2026 and reduced interest income from a decrease in regulatory asset balances for both regulated utilities.

Lastly, other income decreased during the quarter, mainly due to a change in market conditions that resulted in gains on investments held to fund retirement plans in 2025 compared to losses on those investments in 2026. Slide 10 shows the EPS bridge comparing adjusted EPS for the third quarter of 2026 against the same period for 2025. Moving now to Slide 11, consolidated earnings for the 9 months ended September 2026 as reported were $2.92 per share compared to $2.63 per share for the same period in 2025, an increase of $0.29 per share. Removing the effects of the gains on investments from both periods, adjusted earnings for year-to-date 2026 were $2.86 per share as compared to adjusted earnings of $2.54 per share in 2025, an increase of $0.33 per share or 12.6%.

All 3 of our operating business segments have performed well and reported year-to-date increases in earnings per share. Turning to liquidity on Slide 12. Net cash provided by operating activities was largely consistent with last year, the implementation of new rates and surcharges at our regulated utility -- regulated utilities added to cash flows from operations. However, the timing of cash receipts and disbursements related to working capital items continues to impact our cash flow from operations. For investing activities, our regulated utilities invested $149.3 million on company-funded capital projects year-to-date. And as Bob mentioned earlier, we're on target to reach $185 million to $220 million this year.

In July, Standard & Poor's affirmed the company's strong credit ratings of A for American States Water with a stable outlook and A+ for Golden State Water with also a stable outlook. These are some of the highest credit ratings in the U.S. investor-owned water utility industry. With that, I'll turn the call back to Bob.

Robert Sprowls

Thank you, Eva. Turning now to updates on the regulatory front. Let's start with the latest water general rate case that set new rates for the years 2025 through 2027. In December, Golden State Water received approval from the CPUC to implement its full second year and other rate increases, which were effective January 1 of this year. This approval results in higher adopted operating revenues less water supply cost for the full year 2026, up $32 million compared to adopted operating revenues less water supply costs for 2025.

Included in the 2026 increase is nearly $11 million related to advice letter capital projects. The advice letter projects were added to the adopted rate base for inclusion in the revenue requirement effective January 1, 2026. In comparison, the net change in adopted operating revenue less water supply cost in 2025, over 2024 adopted levels was $23 million. As a reminder, due to the CPUC's required use of a modified revenue decoupling mechanism and an incremental water supply cost balancing account effective January 1, 2025, Golden State Water's earnings face future volatility from consumption fluctuations and water supply mix changes.

Golden State Water's year-to-date earnings benefited from higher customer consumption of approximately 1% and a favorable water supply source mix that included less purchased water than in the same period of 2025. This improvement in the supply mix was due in part to certain wells that had been temporarily off-line returning to service during 2026. It remains uncertain whether these favorable conditions will continue through the remainder of 2026 or if their positive earnings impact will reverse. Customer consumption can fluctuate due to factors like climate change, conservation efforts and weather conditions. For example, El Niño or La Niña weather events could significantly affect precipitation levels and outdoor water use.

Additionally, water supply mix changes can occur due to unforeseen groundwater quality issues and changes in the operating conditions of ground water basins and associated pumping facilities. Any of these factors could directly impact Golden State Water's future net earnings. Next, we review pending and future regulatory proceedings at the water segment. On July 1, Golden State Water filed a general rate case application for all its water regions and the general office. This general rate case will determine new water rates for the years 2028 through 2030. Golden State Water requested capital budgets of approximately $1 billion for the 3-year rate cycle, and among other items, requested to reinstate the regulatory framework for a full revenue decoupling mechanism and a full supply cost balancing account for water supply. Decision in this rate case is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2027.

Also, as mentioned on prior earnings calls, in November 2025, the CPUC approved a request by Golden State Water and 3 other large investor-owned California water utilities to defer the cost of capital application by another year. CPUC's approval postponed the filing date of the application by 1 year until May 1, 2027, with a corresponding effective date of January 1, 2028. The CPUC also approved the joint parties request to leave the current water cost of capital mechanism in place through the 1-year deferral period. For the period from October 1, 2025, through September 30, 2026, the Moody's AA utility bond rate did not change by more than 100 basis points from the benchmark.

As a result, Golden State Water's return on equity remains unchanged as there was no trigger of the water cost of capital adjustment mechanism. Golden State Water's current authorized rate of return on rate base is 7.93%, which includes a return on equity of 10.06% and a capital structure with 57% equity and 43% debt. Based on its weighted average cost of capital which will continue in effect through December 31, 2027. Furthermore, as I had previously highlighted, on July 13, Golden State Water and Cal Advocates, filed a joint motion seeking approval of the settlement agreement to acquire a water system in Norwalk, California.

If the settlement agreement is approved by the CPUC, the system will be incorporated into one of Golden State Water's existing rate-making areas and will result in increased water revenues. The proposed decision is scheduled for the fourth quarter of this year. Turning our attention to Slide 15. We present the growth in Golden State Water's adopted average water rate base in 2021 through 2026, which increased from $980.4 million in 2021 to $1,673.2 million in 2026. That represents a compound annual growth rate of 11.3% over the 5-year period. Golden State Water anticipates a robust and sustained growth in its rate base over the next few years.

The annual increase in rate base reflects, among other factors, the net effect of capital investments less depreciation. The higher increase in 2026 as compared to the increases in prior years represents the effects of the advice letter projects completed prior to 2026 that were included in rate base effective January 1 of this year. Please see the first footnote at the bottom of the slide. The affordability of our customer bills is a priority for the company. We remain focused on balancing the need for continued investment in system reliability and resiliency with the impact on customer bills. CPUC evaluates affordability using metrics such as the affordability ratio, which measures essential utility bills relative to household income, particularly for low-income customers.

The majority of our water service areas performed well under the CPUC's affordability metrics. For a very few smaller service areas where affordability challenges exist, we are either implementing or have proposed measures to address those concerns. Our electric customer bills and affordability metrics remain within a manageable range. Now turning our attention to Bear Valley Electric, which continues to be a strong contributor to the company's results. Current general rate case set rates for 2023 through 2026. In January, Bear Valley Electric implemented new rates for 2026 which is the last year of its 4-year rate cycle. There are also increases in revenues in 2025 and 2026, associated with approximately $28 million of capital projects, including AFUDC, approved for recovery through advice letters that were completed and placed in service.

Bear Valley Electric's adopted average rate base has grown from $69.2 million in 2021 to $166 million in 2026, representing a compound annual growth rate of 19.1% over the 5-year period. In January of this year, Bear Valley Electric filed a general rate case application that will determine new electric rates for the years 2027 through 2030. Among other things, Bear Valley Electric requested capital budgets of approximately $133 million for the 4-year rate cycle and another approximately $17 million plus AFUDC for capital projects to be filed for revenue recovery through advice letters when the projects are completed. A return on equity of 11.3% and embedded cost of debt of 5.92%, a capital structure of 60% equity and 40% debt and a return on rate base of 9.15%.

Let's continue to ASUS, which contributed earnings of $0.17 per share for the quarter, which was $0.02 per share lower than last year. This was primarily the result of higher overall operating and construction expenses, partially offset by an increase in total revenues recognized. With year-to-date earnings of $0.47 per share, ASUS is on target to contribute $0.63 to $0.67 per share this year, representing an increase of 3.3% to 9.8% year-over-year. ASUS was awarded $31 million in new capital upgrade construction projects through year-to-date September 2026 to be completed through 2029.

As we look ahead to 2027, we project that ASUS will contribute $0.67 to $0.71 per share. In addition, we remain confident that we can effectively compete for new military base contract awards. I'd like to turn our attention to dividends. In the third quarter, we raised our dividend by 8.2%. Our quarterly dividend rate has grown at a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of 8.4% over the last 5 years. These increases are consistent with our policy to achieve a compound annual growth rate in the dividend of more than 7% over the long term. Our record of dividend increases every calendar year for 72 consecutive years is a testament to our enduring commitment to delivering value to shareholders. I'd like to conclude our prepared remarks by thanking you for your interest in American States Water, and we'll now turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will begin with Angie Storozynski from Seaport.

질의응답

Agnieszka Storozynski

So first, maybe on the $0.05 of earnings from pension accounts, what was -- what's been the earnings contribution from that driver year-to-date or maybe year-over-year? What's been the delta?

Eva Tang

You're asking year-to-date, right? Angie.

Agnieszka Storozynski

That's right. Like for the first 9 months, I mean, I understand that there was $0.05 of a drag year-over-year in the third quarter. But how about the first half?

Eva Tang

For year-to-date September this year, we have $0.06. Yes, $0.05 last year. So that's the difference we talk about.

Agnieszka Storozynski

And then even with that drag, do you expect to fully realize your allowed ROE on the electric side for 2026?

Robert Sprowls

So you're asking about the retirement assets and the electric business?

Agnieszka Storozynski

Yes. Yes, exactly because that drag shows up in electric earnings, right? So because even with that drag, you guys are tracking pretty well against our estimates and so...

Robert Sprowls

It shows up in the water segment, Golden State Water. That's where that.

Agnieszka Storozynski

That's what I mean, I'm sorry, on the water side. That's what I'm asking, yes. Yes, I've been clearly electricity is on my mind today, but yes, I'm talking about the water system.

Robert Sprowls

Yes. I mean we are confident we'll earn at or above our authorized return on the water business. Like we, sort of, do every year.

Agnieszka Storozynski

Exactly, exactly. So -- and then moving on to the electric side now intentionally. So we're waiting for the results of your pending rate case. So your expectation is that we're still going to get them by the end of next year that there shouldn't be a delay?

Robert Sprowls

Well, we're -- the schedule is that we get a decision in the first quarter of 2027. So start out as a proposed decision, of course, but then...

Agnieszka Storozynski

That's right.

Eva Tang

Yes. The new rate is supposed to be effective 2027. January 1. So even delayed for a few months, we'll have ability to retroactive -- to book those retroactive revenues.

Robert Sprowls

The ALJ in the case seems to be very much wanting to keep it moving. So that's a really good sign.

Operator

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Bob Sprowls for any closing remarks.

Robert Sprowls

Thank you, Chloe. I just want to wrap it up today by thanking everyone for their participation today, saying we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter and then wishing everybody a happy holiday season. So thank you, everyone.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.