라이브네이션(LYV) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 관객 수 6,000만 명 돌파

라이브네이션 엔터테인먼트(LYV)는 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜에서 사상 최대 규모의 관객 수, 광범위한 글로벌 성장세, 티켓마스터의 강화된 모멘텀을 강조했다. 경영진은 공연장 개장 전 준비 비용과 사업 믹스 효과를 언급하면서도 연간 AOI 성장 전망을 재확인했다.

핵심 요약

• 3분기 콘서트 관객 수는 6,000만 명을 돌파하며 전년 동기 대비 약 20% 증가했다.
• 해외 관객 수는 29% 증가했으며, 라틴아메리카, 유럽, 아시아가 각각 최소 15% 성장했다.
• 스타디움 공연이 글로벌 관객 증가분의 절반 이상을 견인한 가운데, 9월은 라이브네이션의 북미 앰피시어터 사상 최대 실적을 기록한 달이었다.
• 경영진은 티켓 판매율 상승, 취소 감소, 스타디움 공연 규모 확대에 힘입어 연간 관객 수가 1억 8,000만 명에 근접할 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 티켓마스터는 주로 해외 시장을 중심으로 연초 이후 신규 고객사로부터 2,000만 장 이상의 순신규 티켓을 확보했다.
• 라이브네이션은 연간 콘서트 부문 AOI 두 자릿수 성장 전망을 재확인하고, 티켓마스터의 AOI 성장률 전망치를 한 자릿수 후반대로 상향 조정했다.

주요 재무 및 운영 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

콘서트 부문의 성장은 지리적으로 광범위하게 나타났다. 북미 앰피시어터가 호조를 보였으며, 9월은 회사 역대 최대 앰피시어터 관객 수를 기록한 달이 되었다. 해외 관객 수는 29% 증가했고, 경영진이 언급한 모든 주요 해외 지역이 최소 15%의 성장률을 달성했다.

스타디움 공연은 글로벌 관객 증가분의 절반 이상을 차지했다. 북미 지역의 경우, 라이브네이션이 월드컵 관련 물류 일정을 조율하면서 행사 일정이 늦춰진 점이 증가 요인 일부로 작용했다. 경영진은 스타디움 공연 규모가 당초 예상보다 강세를 보이며 마무리되었다고도 덧붙였다.

티켓마스터는 콘서트 관객 수 증가의 직접적인 수혜를 입었으며, 이는 티켓마스터 성장의 95%를 차지했다. 해당 사업 부문은 올해 들어 신규 고객사로부터 2,000만 장 이상의 순신규 티켓을 추가로 확보했다. 3분기에 진행된 해리 스타일스, 브루노 마스, 오아시스, 메탈리카의 주요 티켓 판매 개시는 2027년을 위한 모멘텀을 마련했다.

베뉴 네이션은 2026년 전 세계적으로 약 7,500만 명의 관객을 유치할 것으로 예상된다. 경영진은 직영 공연장이 관객당 더 높은 이익과 마진을 창출함에도 불구하고, 전반적인 관객 증가에 대한 기여도는 직영 공연장과 타사 공연장이 대체로 비슷했다고 밝혔다. 최근 개장한 미국 앰피시어터, 인수한 유럽 아레나, 프리미엄 상품 및 스폰서십 매출 모두 견조한 실적을 나타냈다.

경영진 가이던스

경영진은 연간 콘서트 관객 수가 1억 8,000만 명에 근접할 것으로 전망하고 있다. 이러한 증가는 티켓 판매율 상승, 취소율 하락, 연초 예상보다 견조했던 스타디움 공연 규모를 반영한 것이다.

라이브네이션은 2026년 콘서트 부문 AOI 두 자릿수 성장 전망을 재확인했다. 티켓마스터의 연간 AOI 성장률 전망치는 한 자릿수 후반대로 상향 조정되었으며, 이는 콘서트 수요, 신규 고객사 확보, 스포츠 부문의 호실적이 2차 티케팅에서 예상되던 압력을 상쇄한 데 따른 것이다.

회사는 다가오는 인베스터 데이에서 베뉴 네이션 개장, 공연장 투자, 개장 전 준비 비용, 자본 배치, 파트너 자금 지원 및 예상 수익률에 대해 더 자세한 내용을 공개할 계획이다.

위험 요인 및 주시 분야

공연장 확장에 따라 2026년 개장 전 준비 비용이 증가하고 있으며, 경영진은 향후 1~2년 동안 해당 비용이 지속적으로 늘어날 것으로 예상하고 있다.

사업 믹스 또한 수익성에 영향을 미친다. 스타디움 행사는 일반적으로 티켓 가격은 높지만 마진이 낮은 편인 반면, 라이브네이션 직영 공연장을 찾는 관객은 타사 공연장 관객보다 더 높은 마진을 창출한다.

선급 광고비는 3분기까지 두 자릿수 증가세를 보였다. 경영진은 이미 2027년 티켓 판매가 시작된 투어 관련 마케팅 비용의 연말 상각 처리가 4분기 실적에 영향을 미칠 것이라고 밝혔다.

티켓마스터는 앞서 단속 강화에 따라 2차 티케팅 시장이 압박을 받을 것으로 예상한 바 있다. 그러나 스포츠 부문의 호실적이 이를 상쇄하면서 연간 기준으로는 이러한 역풍이 나타나지 않았다.

애널리스트 질의응답(Q&A) 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 베뉴 네이션의 확장 수익성에 집중했다. 경영진은 직영 공연장이 관객당 더 나은 수익성을 제공하지만, AOI 성장을 평가할 때는 스타디움 믹스와 증가하는 개장 전 준비 비용을 반드시 반영해야 한다고 강조했다.

관객 수 전망치 상향에 대해 경영진은 티켓 판매율 호조, 취소 감소, 예상보다 견조했던 스타디움 규모 덕분이라고 설명했다. 이러한 요인들은 당초 계획 대비 수백만 명의 관객을 추가할 수 있다.

공연장 인수 계약 종결 및 공연장 자본지출 중 파트너 자금 분담분에 대한 질문은 다가오는 인베스터 데이로 답변이 미뤄졌으며, 경영진은 자본 배치, 지분율, 수익성 영향에 대해 더 자세히 설명할 계획이다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to Live Nation's Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Call.

I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Yong. Thank you, Ms. Yong. You may begin your conference.

Amy Yong

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Live Nation Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. Joining us today is our President and CEO, Michael Rapino; and our President and CFO, Joe Berchtold.

We would like to remind you that this afternoon's call will contain certain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ, including statements related to the company's anticipated financial performance, business prospects, new developments and similar matters. Please refer to Live Nation's SEC filings, including the risk factors and cautionary statements included in the company's most recent filings on Forms 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K for a description of risks and uncertainties that could impact the actual results.

Live Nation will also refer to some non-GAAP measures on this call. In accordance with the SEC Regulation G, Live Nation has provided definitions of these measures and a full reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures in our earnings release. The release reconciliation can be found under the Financial Information section on Live Nation's website.

With that, we will now take your questions. Operator?

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And the first question comes from the line of David Karnovsky with JPMorgan.

질의응답

David Karnovsky

Joe, I wanted to see if you could unpack the Q3 result a bit. It looks like fan count came in even higher than expected. So can you give some color on where you saw that added growth and how it flowed to concerts and ticketing AOI? And can you also just remind us of any preopening expense growth in the quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Thanks, David. Yes, great quarter for concerts with attendance of over $60 million. I think the first time we've had that level of attendance, up almost 20%. Both North America and international doing well. International, in particular, was up 29% in every one of the regions. So Latin America, Europe, Asia, all up at least 15%. So we're seeing consistently strong performance globally. In North America, we had a very good amphitheater, including September being our largest amphitheater month overall.

And then globally, it was a very big stadium quarter. Stadiums drove over half of the global fan growth, up measurably in both North America and internationally. North America, a chunk of that being the timing that we've talked about before, where the stadium timing this year was a bit later than it was in previous years, just given how we had to manage the logistics around the World Cup. So overall, excellent, and that obviously flowed through to the ticketing business. Ticketing business, 95% of their growth was from concerts. So certainly benefited from the great attendance that we had at our shows.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Stephen Laszczyk with Goldman Sachs.

Stephen Laszczyk

Joe and Michael, maybe just digging a bit deeper into the growth at Ticketmaster. It's come in a bit better than expectations over the course of this year. I think you're now calling out high single-digit AOI growth for the full year. Just would be curious if you could talk more about the strength you're seeing play out this year, the durability of those trends and then ultimately, how you would expect to close out the year for Ticketmaster.

Joe Berchtold

Sure. I'll get that started. So first of all, better than expected even in terms of the fan growth in our concert business, which we've now guided towards close to $180 million. So that obviously supports the Ticketmaster business. Ticketmaster has also continued to add a number of clients, particularly internationally with over 20 million net new tickets so far this year. So that continues to perform well. We had flagged a year or so ago that we thought that there was likely to be some headwinds on the secondary side as we really continue to increase the enforcement on the concert secondary, which we expected to reduce that business.

And as we noted, we have some offsets with increased performance on the sports side. So we're not seeing that headwind for the year. So with that, we took up our guidance to now expect high single-digit AOI growth for the year. It's been great year-to-date. Q3 was very strong in part because we had a number of substantial on sales for shows next year, Harry Style, Bruno Mars, Oasis, Metallica, all being substantial on sales in the third quarter. So that's already set us up now with some nice momentum heading into next year.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Brandon Ross with LightShed Partners.

Brandon Ross

First, I just wanted to get a clarification or follow-up on David's question and wanted to hone in on the impact of Venue Nation specifically on your concert numbers. There's a lot of moving pieces there. You're acquiring venues, preopening in others, but the O&O fans should be more profitable. How should investors think about how that all nets out at this point in time?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. As you said, Venue Nation is having a great year. We expect to have about 75 million fans attend our venues worldwide. So we're seeing solid growth from that, continued solid growth as well from third-party fans as we're looking at roughly 20 million fan growth overall. So I would say pretty comparable contribution to our overall fan growth from the year. from both operated and non-operated fans. Clearly, the operated fans are higher profitability per fan, higher margin per fan.

When you look at the overall numbers, the couple of pieces you need to take into account with your math are one is the stadium fans because those are the highest priced tickets will tend to be a lower margin. And then preopening costs that we've talked about, which is just as we're ramping up the venue side, these early years this year and for the next couple of years, we're also ramping up preopening costs. So that's -- that all just needs to get put into the math. And as we get into next week in our Investor Day, we'll lay out more for you guys, the ramp of what we expect in terms of the venue fans as well as the investment overall, including the preopening costs over the next few years.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Cameron Mansson-Perrone with Morgan Stanley.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone

To follow up on Venue Nation, you've acquired a handful of venues this year. Some of those like Milan, I believe, have closed. But could you give us an update on what's closed and what you're expecting in terms of the timing of acquisition closes across some of these markets like Prague, Paris, Santiago, Copenhagen, for example?

Unknown Executive

I think you all know we have an Investor Day next week. we're trying to get today to anything that you want kind of specific around the quarter. But we're going to take you through a great presentation next week and give you much more detail around Venue Nation, what rolls out, AI impact, all the good things you want to know about the next few years on what we're rolling out to build your model. So we'll see you there next week and give you that detail.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Ian Moore with Bernstein Research.

Ian Moore

Just to hone in again on kind of the Venue Nation openings this year in the quarter. You've acquired and obviously opened organically a number of venues. I guess of the ones that are joined this year, still ramping, what's kind of been the biggest, I guess, surprise versus your expectations? And what's driving that? Is it more shows, more spend per fan maybe sponsorship?

Joe Berchtold

I think the main thing that we've seen this year, both of our operated and third party is just the strength of the consumer, right? All year, we've been reading in the press about all the concerns about consumer spending, are they going to keep going to shows? Are they going to keep spending at shows? Will shows close? Will they go on sale well? And we are absolutely seeing continued strong consumer demand globally in all these venues. And you look at some of the amphitheaters we opened here in the U.S., had just about a full slate of shows, performed very well. Premium did well, continue to see strength there, the few arenas we've acquired in Europe, all of them doing well. sponsorship sales on the B2B side continuing to do well. So I wouldn't call out any one of them as being particular, but I would just note the continued strong dynamics on all of the venues.

Operator

And the next question comes from the line of Kutgun Maral with Evercore ISI.

Kutgun Maral

I had a follow-up on concerts where you had a really strong quarter. If I look at the first 9 months of the year, concerts AOI is up about 4%. So your outlook for double-digit growth implies that the fourth quarter loss narrows by at least $30 million or so versus last year, and I imagine it will narrow meaningfully more than that. I guess with fans now approaching $180 million for the year, that implies about 12% fan growth in Q4. Can you help unpack the main drivers of the implied AOI improvement a bit more for the next quarter?

Joe Berchtold

Yes. I think we've said a number of things over the course of the year. I think we got into a pretty good detail over the first couple of quarters explaining what was going on with the results for each of those quarters and how we saw the full year playing out. I think we've been consistent that we expected to see AOI growth for the full year in concerts hitting double digits. And we reiterated that today. So no change in that overall expectation. I laid out earlier some of the puts and takes that we have. Very strong overall fan growth, strong in both venues we operate as well as third-party venues. The margin and per fan economics can get impacted what type of venue it is sometimes, but I think we've given you the pieces there. And then we've also given you the preopening costs.

The last piece that I would note as being an impact is the marketing expense that gets written off for prepaid advertising at the end of the year. We noted here that through the third quarter, that was up double digits. So you can assume the very good news that our fourth quarter gets impacted by prepaid advertising for tours that are on sale and performing well next year. So that's the best problem in the world to have.

Operator

And our final question comes from the line of Steven Cahall with Wells Fargo.

Steven Cahall

So just wanted to understand the upgrade to fan count growth, I think it's about 3% above what you'd guided to before. Is that upside from your expectation that you're all seeing in the second half? Or is it more that as you've gotten visibility into the year, you're more comfortable upgrading that? Just trying to understand how the business is performing versus your expectation as we roll into next year and if you feel like you have incremental momentum? And then just a housekeeping one, how do we think about the partner share of venue CapEx flowing through the cash flow statement in 2026?

Joe Berchtold

So on the upgrade to the expected attendance, I think it's number one thing as the shows are just consistently doing well. So our sell-through rate is higher this year than it was last year. Our cancellation rate is lower. At the start of the year, we probably would have been planning for those to be in line. So for those to outperform at our business, that can account for millions of incremental fans. I think we've ended up stronger on our stadium volume than we thought early in the year, given what we had to manage through with the World Cup here in the U.S., those would be your 2 largest factors that would have driven the increase.

In terms of how we're managing all of the economics, why don't we save that one for Investor Day, so we can go through in more detail and make sure we're answering all the questions on how the capital is being deployed and what pieces of it are ours versus partners. And what the implications that has for IRRs and rates that we're seeing every year.

Operator

Thank you. And that concludes the question-and-answer session, and that also concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your lines at this time.