에메티스(AMTX) 2026년 3분기 실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜: 순이익 520만 달러 및 45Z 성장

핵심 요약

• 에이메티스는 2026년 3분기 매출이 8,820만 달러로 2025년 3분기의 5,920만 달러 대비 49% 증가했다고 발표했다. 45Z조 세액공제 수익을 포함한 캘리포니아 에탄올 및 낙농 재생천연가스(RNG) 부문의 성장이 이를 견인했다.
• 순이익은 520만 달러(기본주당순이익 0.07달러)를 기록해 전년 동기의 2,370만 달러 순손실 대비 흑자 전환했다. 조정 EBITDA는 마이너스(-) 500만 달러에서 2,480만 달러로 개선됐다.
• 45Z조 관련 수익은 총 2,470만 달러로, 낙농 재생천연가스 2,010만 달러와 캘리포니아 에탄올 460만 달러로 구성됐다. 이 합계에는 2026년 상반기 누적 정산액(true-up) 1,100만 달러가 포함됐다.
• 승인된 7개의 캘리포니아 저탄소 연료 기준(LCFS) 인증 경로의 평균 탄소집약도 점수는 마이너스(-) 380이다. 경영진은 6개의 추가 경로가 캘리포니아 대기자원위원회(CARB) 승인을 앞두고 있다고 밝혔다.
• 경영진은 기계식 증기 재압축(MVR) 프로젝트가 2027년 실적에 기여할 것으로 예상하며, 건설 및 시운전을 거친 후 하반기에 재무적 영향이 더 커질 가능성이 높다고 내다봤다.
• 인도 바이오디젤 매출은 인도 자회사에 배정된 1,700만 달러 규모의 물량 인도가 재개되면서 2026년 2분기 250만 달러에서 730만 달러로 반등했다.

주요 재무 데이터

사업 및 운영 실적

낙농 재생천연가스(RNG)

에이메티스는 RNG 생산 시설 및 가스 유틸리티망에 연결된 36마일 길이의 파이프라인을 통해 17개 낙농가를 연결하는 14개의 소화조를 운영하고 있다. 50개 이상의 낙농가가 참여 계약을 체결했다. 10월에 2개의 소화조가 추가로 완공되었으며, 향후 계획된 13개의 소화조를 위한 정제 및 압축 장치도 입고되었다.

낙농 RNG 1 MMBtu당 천연가스 자체, LCFS 크레디트, 연방 D3 RIN, 45Z조 생산세액공제를 통해 수익을 창출할 수 있다. 경영진은 업데이트된 45ZCF-GREET 모델을 적용한 결과, 판매 할인 및 거래 비용 차감 전 낙농 RNG의 2026년 세액공제 가치가 MMBtu당 약 62달러로 산출되었다고 밝혔다. 이는 지난 7월 판매된 크레디트의 MMBtu당 15.20달러와 대비된다.

생산량은 회사의 기존 가정을 상회했다. 경영진은 기온이 낮은 계절에는 생산량이 계절적으로 감소하지만, 수율이 기존 모델의 약 13 MMBtu 대비 젖소 환산 두수당 15 MMBtu에 근접하게 유지되고 있다고 전했다.

캘리포니아 에탄올

기계식 증기 재압축(MVR) 프로젝트는 키스(Keyes) 공장의 천연가스 소비량을 약 80% 줄이도록 설계되었다. 경영진은 에너지 비용 절감과 LCFS 및 45Z 가치 상승을 통해 연간 약 3,200만 달러의 현금 흐름이 추가될 수 있으며, 이는 균등화 기준 갤런당 약 0.50달러의 추가 마진에 해당한다고 추정했다.

기초 공사와 3,500마력 터보팬 6대 설치를 거쳐 건설이 진척되었다. 변압기는 익월 내 도착할 예정이었다. 해당 프로젝트는 약 1,970만 달러의 보조금 및 48C조 세액공제를 확보했다.

에이메티스는 또한 계획된 3개의 옥수수유 분리 장치 중 2개를 설치했다. 세 번째 장치는 12월에 가동을 시작할 예정이다. 경영진은 3개 장치가 모두 가동되면 옥수수유 생산량이 2026년 1분기 수준 대비 약 2배로 증가할 것으로 기대하고 있다.

인도 바이오연료

2026년 3분기 중 인도 석유 유통 국영기업들에 대한 바이오디젤 공급이 재개되었다. 에이메티스는 유럽으로 바이오디젤을 수출하기 위해 인도 및 유럽 당국의 승인도 추진 중이며, 경영진은 승인 절차가 2026년 4분기에 완료될 것으로 예상하고 있다.

회사는 자사의 수출 지향 부문(EOU)이 공식적인 수출 상한선에 직면하지 않으며 이론적으로는 전체 생산능력인 8,000만 갤런을 모두 수출할 수 있다고 밝혔다. 실질적인 제약 요인으로는 원료 수입과 출하 바이오디젤 물류 등이 꼽힌다. 에이메티스는 시장 상황에 따라 유니버설 바이오퓨얼스(Universal Biofuels) 소수 지분의 기업공개(IPO)를 지속적으로 준비하고 있다.

경영진 전망

• MVR 건설은 2027년 1분기 말경 완료될 것으로 예상되나, 날씨, 부품 수급 상황, 시운전 등이 일정에 영향을 미칠 수 있어 경영진은 2027년 상반기를 보다 포괄적인 일정으로 제시했다.
• 천연가스 비용 절감 효과는 MVR 시스템 가동 직후 시작될 것으로 보인다. 경영진은 시운전 및 운영 안정화가 이뤄진 후인 2027년 하반기에 전반적인 재무적 기여도가 더 커질 것으로 예상하고 있다.
• 세 번째 옥수수유 분리 장치는 2026년 12월에 가동될 예정이다.
• 에이메티스 낙농 RNG 충전소는 2026년 11월 트럭 플릿을 대상으로 연료 공급을 시작할 예정이다.
• 6개의 추가 LCFS 경로가 CARB의 심사를 거치고 있다. 경로가 승인될 경우 통상적인 소급 조정이 적용될 예정이다.
• 경영진은 2026년 4분기에 인도 및 EU 수출 승인을 받을 것으로 예상하며, 장기 오프테이크 계약보다는 싱가포르와 유럽의 트레이더 대상 판매가 이어질 것으로 보고 있다.
• 다음 13개 낙농 RNG 시스템의 구축은 현재 진행 중인 자금 조달의 완료 여부에 달려 있다.

리스크 및 주시할 점

• MVR 완공은 전기 부품 수급 차질, 기상 여건, 신규 시스템 시운전에 소요되는 시간 등에 의해 영향을 받을 수 있다.
• 45Z 크레디트에 따른 현금 회수는 수익 인식 시점보다 지연될 수 있다. 또한 MVR 가동 후 새로운 LCFS 경로 업데이트가 필요할 예정이어서 현금 실현 시점이 이후 분기로 밀릴 가능성이 있다.
• 회사가 상온 소화조를 사용하기 때문에 낙농 RNG 생산량은 계절성을 띠며, 기온이 낮은 달에는 생산량이 감소할 것으로 예상된다.
• 낙농 RNG 네트워크 확장은 다음 구축 단계를 위한 자금 조달 확보에 달려 있다.
• 혹독한 겨울 날씨로 인해 캘리포니아로 향하는 옥수수 및 에탄올의 철도 운송이 차질을 빚을 수 있으나, 경영진은 현재 기상 예보상 미국 중서부 지역의 철도 운송에 중대한 위험은 나타나지 않았다고 밝혔다.
• 인도 바이오디젤 수출은 여전히 정부 승인 및 실질적인 공급망 제약 요인의 영향을 받는다.

애널리스트 Q&A 주요 내용

애널리스트들은 MVR 프로젝트의 일정과 경제성에 주목했다. 경영진은 해당 시스템이 2027년 실적에 영향을 미칠 것이라며, 가동 직후 천연가스 절감 효과가 발생하겠지만 시운전을 마친 하반기에 보다 실질적인 재무적 기여가 이뤄질 것이라고 답했다.

45Z 현금화와 관련해 경영진은 크레디트가 생성됨에 따라 수익은 분기별로 인식되지만, 현금 회수는 이후 기간에 발생할 수 있다고 밝혔다. 회사는 일반적으로 매수자, 보험, 중개인, 법률 비용 등을 감안해 약 15%의 총 할인율을 적용해 모델링하고 있다.

에탄올 마진과 관련해 경영진은 몇 가지 잠재적 상승 동력을 제시했다. MVR 경제성으로 인한 갤런당 약 0.50달러의 마진 개선, LCFS 크레디트 가격 상승, 옥수수유 생산량 증가, 2027년 1월 1일부터 시행 예정인 캘리포니아의 연중 E15 도입에 따른 추가 에탄올 수요 등이다.

낙농 RNG 확장에 대해 경영진은 13개 추가 프로젝트를 위한 장비는 확보되어 있으나 구축 속도는 자금 조달 성사 여부에 달려 있다고 설명했다. 인도 사업에 대해서는 장기 오프테이크 계약을 체결하기보다 기존 트레이더 및 공급망 관계를 통해 바이오디젤을 판매할 것으로 예상한다고 덧붙였다.

실적 발표 콘퍼런스콜 전문

전체 실적 발표 컨퍼런스 콜 녹취록

경영진 발표

Operator

Hello, and welcome to the Aemetis Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call.

Joining us on today's call are Eric McAfee, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer; and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels.

I will now turn the call over to Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz

Thank you, and welcome, everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. We will also refer to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP measure. A reconciliation to the most recently comparable GAAP measure is included in our earnings release.

Before reviewing detail, I want to highlight that the company posted net income of $5.2 million or $0.07 per basic share in the third quarter and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million. For the third quarter of 2026, revenues grew 49% to $88.2 million compared with $59.2 million in the third quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas operating segments from both operations and 45Z clean fuel production tax credits.

Section 45Z production tax credit revenue was $24.7 million in the quarter, comprised of $20.1 million from Dairy Renewable Natural Gas and $4.6 million from California Ethanol. 45Z revenue included an $11 million cumulative true-up for the first and second quarter of 2026 from the regulatory updates to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Biodiesel sales in the third quarter were $7.3 million, rebounding from $2.5 million in the second quarter as delivery to three India oil marketing companies resumed under a $17 million allocation to our India subsidiary.

Operating income was $20.9 million in the third quarter, an improvement of $29.4 million compared to the third quarter of 2025, which had an operating loss of $8.5 million. Net income was $5.2 million, equal to $0.07 per basic share, an improvement of $29 million compared to a $23.7 million loss in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA was $24.8 million in the third quarter, an increase of $29.8 million compared to the negative $5 million in the third quarter of 2025. For the first 9 months of 2026, adjusted EBITDA was $33.2 million compared with negative $21.5 million during the same period of 2025. Cash at quarter end was $3.4 million.

In September, we received $22.4 million from the sale of Section 45Z production tax credits. In August, Aemetis Biogas amended its Series A Preferred Unit Agreement to extend the redemption date to December 31, 2026 and to reduce the interest rate on the credit agreement that would apply if the units are not redeemed to the greater of prime plus 5% or 12%. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $20.2 million in the third quarter and $35.3 million for the first 9 months of 2026.

With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric McAfee.

Eric McAfee

Thanks, Todd. Let's highlight 3 key takeaways from the third quarter. First, Q3 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the Q2 earnings call with the posting of net income of $5.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $24.8 million during the third quarter. We continue to grow with consolidated revenue up 49% year-over-year, an improvement in operating income of $29.4 million and increased adjusted EBITDA by $29.8 million compared to the third quarter of 2025.

Second, we now generate higher revenues due to the California Air Resources Board approval about a year ago, of 7 new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our renewable natural gas business at an average carbon intensity score of negative 380 compared with the negative 150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters, which was shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of 7 biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue with a higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025, and additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval. These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. And third, our capital projects are advancing with $20.2 million of investment during the quarter.

Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our Dairy Renewable Natural Gas business, every MMBtu of dairy RNG generates 4 revenue streams: the natural gas molecule, a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a Federal D3 RIN that is also sold to oil companies and a Section 45Z production tax credit.

The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuel. So credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored. An LCFS pathway at negative 380 generates substantially more credit per MMBtu than the negative 150 default score. We have 7 approved California LCFS pathways averaging negative 380 carbon intensity with 6 more pathways nearing approval by CARB.

For the 45Z production tax credit, the Department of Energy issued its updated 45ZCF-GREET model on September 8 of this year, which decreased the carbon intensity scores used to calculate 45Z credits for dairy RNG. The credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBtu. The credits we sold in September generated from ethanol and RNG production during 2026, represented a tax credit value of approximately $62 per MMBtu for dairy RNG and $0.33 per gallon of ethanol for 2026 before sales discounts and transaction costs. We received $22.4 million from the September 45Z tax credit sale, and our third quarter results included an approximately $11 million cumulative true-up for RNG dispensed in the first half of the year.

As Dairy Renewable Natural Gas volume grows, all 4 revenue streams grow, but the approval of LCFS pathways in California is expected to create significant increases in revenues from the renewable natural gas production. We operate 14 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 17 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36-mile pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to the utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies that have signed participation agreements. Two new methane capture digesters were completed last month, and we have received 13 additional cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 13 digesters to come online.

Regarding our California Ethanol business, we have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance in addition to further improvements in 45Z values and expected increases in LCFS credit prices. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from 3 positive impacts on our operations. We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keyes ethanol plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil natural gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and the LCFS credit generated by every gallon of ethanol.

The MVR project is making excellent progress. Key equipment arrived this summer, and we have completed major steps in construction of the system, including placement of the six 3,500-horsepower turbofans. Foundation concrete has been completed, and electricity transformers are scheduled to arrive in the next month. The MVR project has been awarded approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company and the IRS.

Second, in the past few months, we have installed two of the planned three corn oil separation units at the ethanol plant, with the third unit slated to be operating by the end of this year. Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low-carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations issued by the federal EPA. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate, and prices have increased significantly this year.

Our India biofuels business shipped biodiesel to oil marketing companies and commercial customers during Q3 2026. Biodiesel sales rebounded to $7.3 million as we delivered biodiesel to the oil marketing companies under their new tender. We're also building our base of private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. And we have applied to the India and EU governments for approval to export biodiesel to Europe. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from less than 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of additional biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in Universal Biofuels, our subsidiary, subject to market conditions.

Of the milestones we outlined last quarter, the 2 new dairy digesters are now operating, and the Department of Energy has issued the dairy RNG update to the 45ZCF-GREET model. Our outlook on short-term milestones and timing is the third corn oil unit is scheduled to be operational in December, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026. The Aemetis Dairy RNG fuel station is scheduled to begin RNG deliveries to truck fleets this month.

MVR construction is progressing toward completion. Additional LCFS pathways are moving through CARB with the customary look back on approval, and India deliveries across the current allocation period with a focus on exports to Europe after receiving our government approvals.

Thank you to our shareholders, analysts and our partners for your continued support.

Operator, let's take some questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is coming from Amit Dayal from H.C. Wainwright.

질의응답

Amit Dayal

So Eric, congrats on pretty solid results and cash flows this quarter. Just going to the MVR, it looks like all the equipment is in place, the work is underway. The benefits from this, should we expect that to come through in 2027 financials or 2028 financials?

Eric McAfee

For the MVR?

Amit Dayal

Yes.

Eric McAfee

Those are 2027 financials for sure. I mean, we should say for sure. We should say we fully expect delivery in early 2027 as we are completing construction. And the milestones we've stated for the foundations, placing the units, we have extensive construction going on.

Andy, do you want to give us an update?

Andrew Foster

Yes, I would say the system, we're making good progress on construction. As you can imagine, with the demand for materials for data centers, in particular, is creating kind of a crunch on some of the electric components, but I think we're pretty well lined up with that. So our estimate right now is that we'll have the project completed by the end of the first quarter. I say that loosely, we're saying kind of the first half, but who knows Super El Nino and some other things that could play into that. But we're making good progress and expect, hopefully, by March, we'll be completed with construction.

Commissioning will take some time. It's a new system. And so I would say in terms of financial impact, you're probably going to see it more in the second half of next year than you will in the first half of next year because we'll be completing construction, sort of commissioning the system, getting it up and running, and then we'll start to see that impact. The natural gas impact will happen pretty quickly, though, because once we switch over to the MVR system, we won't be drawing down the 3,700 MMBtus that we're currently using daily. So we'll start to see a financial impact almost immediately on the gas side. But as far as getting things lined out, it will probably take a month or 2 to get that system lined out and then be really kind of cranking it by the second half of the year.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just as a follow-up to that, guys, just for like how -- there was an audit process, et cetera, and there was a little bit of lag between when the credits are being generated versus monetized. Should we expect something similar for MVR to play out as well? Or would that be a little bit different?

Eric McAfee

Our revenue recognition for 45Z revenue is now quarterly. So we would potentially have receivables at the end of the month that are non-monetized 45Zs, which will have a tendency to line up the quarter in which we generate the production, generate 45Z. The cash, however, may be deferred into further later quarters. The initial start-up of 45Z in the first half of 2027 is by necessity going to require us to have a new LCFS pathway update. That will cause us to, as Andy said, push much of the cash into the second half of the year. But we're going to try to accrue revenue as it's generated and for things that are not investment tax credits, it should show up in the quarter in which they're generated.

Amit Dayal

Understood. And just last one, I guess. This India biodiesel to Europe sounds very interesting. How long could this approval process take? And would you be capped at what portion of that capacity can be exported?

Eric McAfee

The approvals are largely in process. We do expect them to be completed in the fourth quarter of this year. And we have not a cap on export. It's called an export-oriented unit. So in theory, we could send our entire 80 million gallons of capacity to foreign shores. We have just practical execution of inbound shipments of feedstock and outbound shipments of biodiesel that will be larger constraints on the amount we ship. But we will have an operational cap.

Amit Dayal

And then as a part of this, can we maybe expect some announcement around an offtaker for this volume?

Eric McAfee

Probably not an offtaker. We've done this before. We used to be the largest biodiesel supplier to Europe from India until Europe changed their rules. Now they've changed their rules again. And so India has again started shipping to Europe. There's roughly half a dozen suppliers that have started this business over the last year or so. And so we are cooperating with existing suppliers. I think this is one of the strengths of the business. It will be importing feedstock together, and we'll be exporting to the same customers in Europe. I do not expect to do it on a long-term offtake arrangement. I think we'll just be doing a supply chain sales to traders out of Singapore and Europe.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Derrick Whitfield from Stifel.

Derrick Whitfield

I wanted to start with ethanol. Arguably, the quarter, while strong, still doesn't reflect the full value of where your ethanol margins could grow over time. With that said, could you provide just a walk-through on where margins currently sit per gallon and where you expect them to be post MVR CO2 use and the benefit of potentially lower CI corn?

Eric McAfee

The MVR is projected to generate about $32 million on a levelized basis annually from decreased cost of natural gas and increased LCFS and 45Z revenue. That comes in at roughly $0.50 a gallon of additional margin, and that is in cash. So that's a significant sustainable competitive advantage that we will have. I believe we're the first installer of MVRs in this cycle. I think ADM might have had one at some point or something, but I think we'll be the first one in the country. And what's unique about our plant is that we're located on the California electricity grid, which has a very diligent commitment to getting to zero carbon intensity.

So as the grid decarbonizes in California using more solar, wind and hydroelectric, that directly will improve our CI score. So tapping into that decarbonized grid is an advantage we have here in California that not all states provide. So the MVR is a uniquely energy-efficient implementation in our particular plant. We also have the impact of E15. We didn't talk about E15 on this call, but California is the first state in the country to adopt year-round E15 at the state level. As you know, California is the only state can set its own fuel rules. And so the Senate Bill 795 recently passed and has implementations slated for January 1, 2027. That will be additional capacity requirements about equal to 10 of our plants.

So somebody across the country has to either build a new plant or expand their existing plants to meet this California capacity requirement. And then nationally, of course, the House has already approved and the Senate is pending approval of E15. We don't have any particular projections on when that would happen. But certainly, the recent political events would support biofuels and rural areas. So we think that E15 has some strength in it. That is our underlying margin. The last time we actually had support for the national demand for ethanol, we made $40 million of positive cash flow. So in the actual molecule, this business should be a $0.50 or more per gallon molecule.

And then lastly is the LCFS credit price, even generating the same number of credits. Last year, we only got $42 per credit. Now we're at $90. The cap is $275 this year. There's a long way to run. And the LCFS credits have continued to be not produced at the rate necessary to meet compliance. So there's a deficit. And there's over 10 million credits that disappeared out of the excess bank over the last 12 months. We expect that to continue, and there should be theoretically no excess inventory of credits within the next 24 months. So we are going to benefit from that. Our revenue goes up even with the same number of gallons. So we have a number of significant drivers.

Last point I want to make is we haven't talked much about corn oil, but corn oil is the most attractive, lowest emission rate feedstock for renewable diesel, biodiesel and sustainable aviation fuel. It only has a 10 emissions rate. Tallow is 18 to 20, UCO is 20 to 25, soybeans is 30. So the use of distillers corn oil as renewable diesel or sustainable aviation fuel feedstock should really be a top priority for all those producers, and we are the largest producer to source corn oil in California. And through Andy's team's implementation of 2 of 3, but by the end of this quarter, we'll have 3 operating units separating corn oil. We'll be doubling our corn oil production at a time where the price is roughly doubled. So that's a very promising additional margin for the business. It's, of course, very sustainable.

Derrick Whitfield

Great. And Eric, maybe just touching on the point that you kind of highlighted there on policy. Biofuels generally tends to be supported by both Democrats and Republicans, but given what we've seen with the change, given the Democratic sweep, I mean, are you expecting any changes or anything that might have occurred in California that was a surprise? And anything that you could offer us color as to how you see policy coming together at both the federal and state level would be appreciated.

Eric McAfee

I would say that generally, the rural areas and farmers played an outsized role in this election. And I think we have Democrats now as governors in Iowa and senators from Texas that are Democrats, but that are being voted into play in these rural states, and that's always good for corn and soybeans, which is good for ethanol. Really, the only growth market for corn is E15 ethanol. So the initiative we're looking for, I think, will be supported.

A second factor, and I'll make this very brief, is we're going to have a Congress that really can't get things through the White House and the White House that really can't get things through Congress, which is very, very good for the biofuels business. Stability in policy is just tremendously supportive of our financing efforts, our growth efforts. It is really a wonderful situation we find ourselves where we don't have to worry about Congress coming up with an idea and immediately implementing it. It's probably the opposite of what investors are thinking, but I can tell you, as operators of this business, we are looking forward to the stability in policy, which we should see and supportive policy when it happens.

Derrick Whitfield

And then Eric, one last, if I could. Just on the dairy RNG business. As you look out into next year and the pipeline of farms that you guys have to bring on, what kind of pace would you expect for next year?

Eric McAfee

We have financing in process right now. I think that news is something we'll be reporting here over the next couple of months. And we have 13 long lead time items that we've received very strong support from our vendor to get built. So our ability to deploy those 13 rapidly is certainly in place. We just need the financial closing to accelerate beyond the current pace we have right now.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Dave Storms from Stonegate.

David Storms

I wanted to start maybe with -- when I'm thinking about RNG production, it looks like the last 2 quarters, you were running about 600,000 MMBtus on an annualized basis. I know in the recent release in October, it was also reiterated that the 600,000 should be a good run rate. With the addition again up to the 14, though, how should we be thinking about the out year in terms of MMBtu generation?

Eric McAfee

We have a seasonality directly correlated to the weather. Our technology is a passive solar dairy biogas digester. So the solar component of that means that during the wintertime, there's less solar energy, we don't have as much production. So if you look back over a 6-month span, you're looking back over the summer. And when you analyze from that, yes, 600,000 plus would easily be calculated. I can say, though, that we have performed above expectation.

Andy, do you want to talk about yields and some other things?

Andrew Foster

Yes. So we're -- I mean, I think originally on our models, we had ourselves at about 13 MMBtus per wet cow equivalent, and we're running closer to 15 at this point. So we, I think, run a very efficient operation. And as Eric mentioned, during the summer months, obviously, things crank. Ambient temperature digesters do get impacted seasonally. So as we head into the cooler months, that number probably goes down a little bit. But we have found that our systems are very efficient and our production has exceeded our forecast for the last 2 years. So I would anticipate as we continue to add digesters that, that trend will continue.

David Storms

Understood. That's great commentary. Turning to the 45Z production tax credits. It's mentioned that there's obviously a discount that you receive in the market. With the update to the model, are you starting to see those discounts decrease? Or just maybe any comments you have on the tax credit market, please?

Eric McAfee

Yes. Our observation has been that the production tax credit market has not changed very much. We usually model about a 15% discount all in, including insurance and lawyers and brokers and tax lawyers and more tax lawyers. That's probably more of a discount than we're actually getting, but that's the way we usually model it. And that includes the discount to the buyer.

David Storms

Understood. And then maybe just one more, if I could. Looking out, you mentioned earlier in the call super El Nino. Just any thoughts on the impact that might have on ethanol in the coming 12 to 15 months?

Andrew Foster

It sort of depends on where the weather pattern settles in, but all the forecasts that we've looked at are showing a warmer, drier upper Midwest kind of Plains states, winter. And that's -- generally, when we think about the impact, it's really in transportation, it's in rail, getting the corn to California. If you go back to -- and I don't remember what year it was 2015, somewhere in there, where we had a series of these polar vortexes where the railroads were severely impacted. That's really what we're keeping our eye on.

As far as California goes, we're expecting a lot of rain is what they're saying. Good news is the plant is in an area that doesn't have flooding. So we're equipped to operate the plant in all kinds of conditions. So that's less of a risk for us. I think it's really more around what happens with rail transportation as this system sort of settles in and where it's going to be impacted. Some of the trains do come through the South through Texas. That could be a liability if there's ice storms down there. So at this point, I'd say we're not really worried from the perspective of ongoing operations unless we start seeing major disruption in the rail system in the United States, that could cause some issues.

Eric McAfee

And we happen to have 2 things that come to California that impact our business. Number one is corn. There's 1.7 million dairy cows in California that have to be fed, including corn. So that tends to be a high priority cargo coming to California. In the past, there's been a lot of handwringing and issues, but for some reason, they always seem to get the corn through just the last minute, which is good. The other thing coming to California is ethanol. And with California adopting 15% ethanol, another 600 million gallons, that's coming from California. And a couple of times, the polar vortex has just been this magic moment in which California is very short ethanol and they decide not to bring the ethanol cars through. That's nothing to plan on. It's just something that happens once in a while. And this is -- that would be one of the factors in our business model is does ethanol flow to California at a slower rate because of some track out positions...

Andrew Foster

And I would just add in those scenarios, the railroads tend to prioritize feed over fuel because there's live animals on the other side of it. So if you go back again, when we've had rail disruptions, they typically find a way to prioritize corn because you have whether it's chick poultry or cattle that are being fed and rely upon that, they tend to get prioritization. But again, the way the current weather pattern, at least what we've been looking at is setting up, hopefully, there won't be a big impact from a rail perspective as the Midwest doesn't look to be having a real super cold winter with a lot of precipitation.

Eric McAfee

One other item that I'm sure everybody is looking at is, is corn going to be in short supply and therefore, price increase. The opposite was what the USDA came out with recently, which I think was a bit of a surprise to the market and caused the price of corn to go down quite a bit. So they'll be a little struggling around the idea of is there a lot more corn coming out of South America or even Ukraine or elsewhere than what people expected.

Operator

Your next question is coming from Ed Woo from Ascendiant Cap.

Edward Woo

My question is going back to India. You said you guys are preparing still for the IPO, the minority stake due to market conditions. What are the market conditions right now for listings on the India stock market?

Eric McAfee

India stock market has had a tough year. They have had a 5-year run with excellent IPOs. And now they're about to start recovering. The IPO of Jio, the largest cell phone company owned by the family-owned Reliance is sort of a rejuvenation of the India market. One thing that has been resilient in India is retail investors. And the -- it's a socialist country. So 50% of every IPO must be sold to retail, and retail has been very resilient in India. So with the -- what we expect to be, what we plan to be is the start of exports to Europe, that would drive revenues as well as profits out of India operations, and we're excited how that would be lined up in an IPO transaction.

Operator

This concludes our Q&A session. I'll now hand the conference back to Eric McAfee for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Eric McAfee

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis.

Todd?

Todd Waltz

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the Investors section of the Aemetis website.

Matthew?

Operator

This concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.